(10-23-2019 10:52 AM)YNot Wrote:  

(10-22-2019 09:43 PM)Crayton Wrote:  Add Boise and BYU on 6-game football-only deals. They can compete in the 6-team division; with that division’s winner playing the winner of the 7-team division. Exactly 14 cross-division games, no waiver needed, division winners chosen by division record.

Boise is given more scheduling flexibility to schedule western teams (whether they take a full AAC share is negotiated; they make out better than in the MW). BYU would only join if AAC elevated to power status... so such a maneuver would have to be predicated on that promise by the NY6 successor.

Or, the expanded AAC would have to voluntarily withdraw from the Group of Five in the next CFP contract and hold the promise of an attractive bowl contract for its champion.

I would suggest that the expanded AAC could negotiate with the Big 12 and PAC 12 to hold a contract-bowl involving those three conferences. Something where the matchup is the highest ranked among the AAC champ and the next best available Big 12 and PAC 12 (after CFP, Sugar and Rose Bowl selections) and with a guarantee that every conference gets at least 2 appearances over 6 years. The Cotton Bowl would probably take that...or, elevate the Las Vegas Bowl to NY7 status. The AAC champion's back-up bowl pool could be the Alamo Bowl or Holiday Bowl against a solid Big 12 or PAC 12 opponent.

THAT would be a power move for the AAC. While its champion wouldn't have a guaranteed NY bowl slot every year, it would have contract-bowl access outside of the Group of Five.

It may also be the bargaining tool that ultimately gets the AAC a guaranteed access bowl berth. If the AAC continues to provide top 10-15 level champions and viewership the big bowls don't want to be stuck with WMU, etc. It may force their hand if they want a quality draw more often than not. Value is what ultimately dictates and AAC stock is steadily rising right now.

The AAC will not be adding 3 football schools. Sorry guys it isn't gonna happen. ESPN would have to up TV deal by 11 mil per year for 2 FB only members, or 14 mil if all sports. They are not going to do that. If BYU was one of the 3 ESPN could shed their 5 mil deal so it only cost them chump change to add them as a FB only. The difference with any other MWC team other than Boise gets much bigger. If and when AAC adds, it will be 1 school.

As for AAC access bowl, It wont happen either. Heck we couldn't even get a decent 2nd or 3rd tier bowl for our #1-2, depending on access bid.

(10-25-2019 07:14 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  As for AAC access bowl, It wont happen either. Heck we couldn't even get a decent 2nd or 3rd tier bowl for our #1-2, depending on access bid.

That's a good point. Aresco has said all along that improving the conference's bowl tie-ins was a big priority for 2020, with the ultimate aim of a guaranteed NY6 after.

Well, judging by the tie-ins negotiated for 2020-2025, basically zero progress was made towards that. The new lineup is at best marginally better than the current one.

(10-25-2019 07:14 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  The AAC will not be adding 3 football schools. Sorry guys it isn't gonna happen. ESPN would have to up TV deal by 11 mil per year for 2 FB only members, or 14 mil if all sports. They are not going to do that. If BYU was one of the 3 ESPN could shed their 5 mil deal so it only cost them chump change to add them as a FB only. The difference with any other MWC team other than Boise gets much bigger. If and when AAC adds, it will be 1 school.

As for AAC access bowl, It wont happen either. Heck we couldn't even get a decent 2nd or 3rd tier bowl for our #1-2, depending on access bid.

I have to disagree on the 3 school piece. ESPN already has a deal in place with BYU and the MWC.

BYU and ESPN mutually agree to dissolve their contract so that BYU can be part of a newly negotiated AAC deal.

Same with the MWC schools. A membership change in that conference triggers a renegotiation which results in a lower payout due to the loss of two of their strongest brands. ESPN shuffles dollars they would have paid to the MWC for AFA and Boise content to the new AAC deal.

(10-25-2019 07:14 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  The AAC will not be adding 3 football schools. Sorry guys it isn't gonna happen. ESPN would have to up TV deal by 11 mil per year for 2 FB only members, or 14 mil if all sports. They are not going to do that. If BYU was one of the 3 ESPN could shed their 5 mil deal so it only cost them chump change to add them as a FB only. The difference with any other MWC team other than Boise gets much bigger. If and when AAC adds, it will be 1 school.

As for AAC access bowl, It wont happen either. Heck we couldn't even get a decent 2nd or 3rd tier bowl for our #1-2, depending on access bid.

ESPN could get everything it needs by adding 3 western football schools to the AAC lineup.

ESPN has paid about $18M per year to the MWC. In 2018, the MWC had the following ESPN games:
- 2 ESPN,
- 7 ESPN2,
- 13 ESPNU

That's 22 games and only 9 on ESPN or ESPN2.

Boise State was in the 2 ESPN broadcasts, 3 of the 7 ESPN2 broadcasts, and 1 of the ESPNU broadcasts. The 4 ESPN2 broadcasts that did not include Boise were: AFA-Utah State, UNLV-SDSU, Hawaii-Fresno, and a Week 0 game between Wyoming-New Mexico.

Most of these ESPN/2/U broadcasts were for the 10pm ET timeslot and included some weeknight games. There were 2 weeks in which ESPN broadcast zero MWC games on any of its channels.

ESPN could pay the AAC an additional $21M for 3 western full members and get at least 18 games of western inventory. That's $3M more than it has paid to the entire MWC...and ESPN would get all of the content needed from western schools for ESPN and ESPN2...and most of what it needs for ESPNU.

Here's the 2018 list of MWC games on ESPN channels:

Week 0 - Wyoming-UNM - ESPN2(464K)

Week 1 - N/A

Week 2 - UConn-Boise ESPNU (233K)

Week 3 - OSU-Nevada ESPNU (N/A)

Week 4 - AFA-Utah St. - ESPN2 (227K)

Week 5 - Nevada-AFA - ESPNews (N/A),
Toledo-Fresno -ESPNU (N/A)

Week 6 - SDSU-Boise - ESPNU (269K),
Fresno-Nevada - ESPNU (N/A)

Week 7 - Wyoming-Fresno - ESPNU (128K),
Army-SJSU - ESPNU (N/A)

Week 8 - CSU-Boise - ESPN2 (420K),
Fresno-UNM - ESPNU (N/A)

Week 9 - Hawaii-Fresno - ESPN2 (197K),
SDSU-Nevada - ESPNU (N/A)

Week 10 - BYU-Boise - ESPN2 (470K),
SDSU-UNM - ESPNU (N/A)

Week 11 - Fresno-Boise - ESPN2 (819K),
UNLV-SDSU - ESPN2 (415K),
CSU-Nevada = ESPNU (N/A)

Week 12 - N/A

Week 13 - Utah St.-Boise - ESPN (1.08M),
Hawaii-SDSU - ESPNU (N/A),
SJSU-Fresno - ESPNU (N/A)

Week 14 - MWC Championship, Fresno v. Boise - ESPN (1.036M)

(10-25-2019 07:45 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-25-2019 07:14 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  As for AAC access bowl, It wont happen either. Heck we couldn't even get a decent 2nd or 3rd tier bowl for our #1-2, depending on access bid.

That's a good point. Aresco has said all along that improving the conference's bowl tie-ins was a big priority for 2020, with the ultimate aim of a guaranteed NY6 after.

Well, judging by the tie-ins negotiated for 2020-2025, basically zero progress was made towards that. The new lineup is at best marginally better than the current one.

As a Navy fan pointed out in another thread---the AAC has a number of teams averaging over 30K in attendance---which is quite good for a G5 conference. But the AAC doesnt have any teams averaging 40-50K. That's why the AAC remains the choice for bowls only after the supply of P5 teams has been exhausted. If the AAC could ever build its average attendance to around 40K---it might see some better opportunities open up on the bowl front.

(10-25-2019 11:12 AM)YNot Wrote:  

(10-25-2019 07:14 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  The AAC will not be adding 3 football schools. Sorry guys it isn't gonna happen. ESPN would have to up TV deal by 11 mil per year for 2 FB only members, or 14 mil if all sports. They are not going to do that. If BYU was one of the 3 ESPN could shed their 5 mil deal so it only cost them chump change to add them as a FB only. The difference with any other MWC team other than Boise gets much bigger. If and when AAC adds, it will be 1 school.

As for AAC access bowl, It wont happen either. Heck we couldn't even get a decent 2nd or 3rd tier bowl for our #1-2, depending on access bid.

ESPN could get everything it needs by adding 3 western football schools to the AAC lineup.

ESPN has paid about $18M per year to the MWC. In 2018, the MWC had the following ESPN games:
- 2 ESPN,
- 7 ESPN2,
- 13 ESPNU

That's 22 games and only 9 on ESPN or ESPN2.

Boise State was in the 2 ESPN broadcasts, 3 of the 7 ESPN2 broadcasts, and 1 of the ESPNU broadcasts. The 4 ESPN2 broadcasts that did not include Boise were: AFA-Utah State, UNLV-SDSU, Hawaii-Fresno, and a Week 0 game between Wyoming-New Mexico.

Most of these ESPN/2/U broadcasts were for the 10pm ET timeslot and included some weeknight games. There were 2 weeks in which ESPN broadcast zero MWC games on any of its channels.

ESPN could pay the AAC an additional $21M for 3 western full members and get at least 18 games of western inventory. That's $3M more than it has paid to the entire MWC...and ESPN would get all of the content needed from western schools for ESPN and ESPN2...and most of what it needs for ESPNU.

Here's the 2018 list of MWC games on ESPN channels:

Week 0 - Wyoming-UNM - ESPN2(464K)

Week 1 - N/A

Week 2 - UConn-Boise ESPNU (233K)

Week 3 - OSU-Nevada ESPNU (N/A)

Week 4 - AFA-Utah St. - ESPN2 (227K)

Week 5 - Nevada-AFA - ESPNews (N/A),
Toledo-Fresno -ESPNU (N/A)

Week 6 - SDSU-Boise - ESPNU (269K),
Fresno-Nevada - ESPNU (N/A)

Week 7 - Wyoming-Fresno - ESPNU (128K),
Army-SJSU - ESPNU (N/A)

Week 8 - CSU-Boise - ESPN2 (420K),
Fresno-UNM - ESPNU (N/A)

Week 9 - Hawaii-Fresno - ESPN2 (197K),
SDSU-Nevada - ESPNU (N/A)

Week 10 - BYU-Boise - ESPN2 (470K),
SDSU-UNM - ESPNU (N/A)

Week 11 - Fresno-Boise - ESPN2 (819K),
UNLV-SDSU - ESPN2 (415K),
CSU-Nevada = ESPNU (N/A)

Week 12 - N/A

Week 13 - Utah St.-Boise - ESPN (1.08M),
Hawaii-SDSU - ESPNU (N/A),
SJSU-Fresno - ESPNU (N/A)

Week 14 - MWC Championship, Fresno v. Boise - ESPN (1.036M)

Agree, now the question is would those 3 schools leave as a package? I think it is about 60-49 they would.


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(10-22-2019 06:48 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  If you just replace bad football with mediocre basketball, then UMass would be the better choice.

UConn can take UMass Indy schedule over. UMass in the AAC will take them to new heights as well as the conference itself.

So a school that was never a "power" school, plays in a 15K seat stadium, and is even further outside of the AAC footprint is going to take itself and the conference "to new heights" more than a school that was formerly in a BCS league, has its own 40K seat stadium, better athletic brand, and more dedicated fan base?

(10-25-2019 11:43 AM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  

(10-25-2019 11:12 AM)YNot Wrote:  

(10-25-2019 07:14 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  The AAC will not be adding 3 football schools. Sorry guys it isn't gonna happen. ESPN would have to up TV deal by 11 mil per year for 2 FB only members, or 14 mil if all sports. They are not going to do that. If BYU was one of the 3 ESPN could shed their 5 mil deal so it only cost them chump change to add them as a FB only. The difference with any other MWC team other than Boise gets much bigger. If and when AAC adds, it will be 1 school.

As for AAC access bowl, It wont happen either. Heck we couldn't even get a decent 2nd or 3rd tier bowl for our #1-2, depending on access bid.

ESPN could get everything it needs by adding 3 western football schools to the AAC lineup.

ESPN has paid about $18M per year to the MWC. In 2018, the MWC had the following ESPN games:
- 2 ESPN,
- 7 ESPN2,
- 13 ESPNU

That's 22 games and only 9 on ESPN or ESPN2.

Boise State was in the 2 ESPN broadcasts, 3 of the 7 ESPN2 broadcasts, and 1 of the ESPNU broadcasts. The 4 ESPN2 broadcasts that did not include Boise were: AFA-Utah State, UNLV-SDSU, Hawaii-Fresno, and a Week 0 game between Wyoming-New Mexico.

Most of these ESPN/2/U broadcasts were for the 10pm ET timeslot and included some weeknight games. There were 2 weeks in which ESPN broadcast zero MWC games on any of its channels.

ESPN could pay the AAC an additional $21M for 3 western full members and get at least 18 games of western inventory. That's $3M more than it has paid to the entire MWC...and ESPN would get all of the content needed from western schools for ESPN and ESPN2...and most of what it needs for ESPNU.

Here's the 2018 list of MWC games on ESPN channels:

Week 0 - Wyoming-UNM - ESPN2(464K)

Week 1 - N/A

Week 2 - UConn-Boise ESPNU (233K)

Week 3 - OSU-Nevada ESPNU (N/A)

Week 4 - AFA-Utah St. - ESPN2 (227K)

Week 5 - Nevada-AFA - ESPNews (N/A),
Toledo-Fresno -ESPNU (N/A)

Week 6 - SDSU-Boise - ESPNU (269K),
Fresno-Nevada - ESPNU (N/A)

Week 7 - Wyoming-Fresno - ESPNU (128K),
Army-SJSU - ESPNU (N/A)

Week 8 - CSU-Boise - ESPN2 (420K),
Fresno-UNM - ESPNU (N/A)

Week 9 - Hawaii-Fresno - ESPN2 (197K),
SDSU-Nevada - ESPNU (N/A)

Week 10 - BYU-Boise - ESPN2 (470K),
SDSU-UNM - ESPNU (N/A)

Week 11 - Fresno-Boise - ESPN2 (819K),
UNLV-SDSU - ESPN2 (415K),
CSU-Nevada = ESPNU (N/A)

Week 12 - N/A

Week 13 - Utah St.-Boise - ESPN (1.08M),
Hawaii-SDSU - ESPNU (N/A),
SJSU-Fresno - ESPNU (N/A)

Week 14 - MWC Championship, Fresno v. Boise - ESPN (1.036M)

Agree, now the question is would those 3 schools leave as a package? I think it is about 60-49 they would.


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I think they would but it would make it much easier on all expansion candidates involved if there was a bridge to better ease the transition and why I think Colorado State is the key to making the whole thing work. The money is there to add BYU, Boise, and then AFA football only. CSU doesn't pay its own way right now but definitely has the capability to do so. It just depends what ESPN is willing to invest in. AFA likely would have the chance and opportunity to work out a deal with one of the networks like Navy and Army have.

(10-25-2019 12:34 PM)Shox Wrote:  I think they would but it would make it much easier on all expansion candidates involved if there was a bridge to better ease the transition and why I think Colorado State is the key to making the whole thing work. The money is there to add BYU, Boise, and then AFA football only. CSU doesn't pay its own way right now but definitely has the capability to do so. It just depends what ESPN is willing to invest in. AFA likely would have the chance and opportunity to work out a deal with one of the networks like Navy and Army have.

Why wouldn't Air Force serve as the bridge?

And, why wouldn't San Diego State be at the front of the line, like they were last go-round?

(10-25-2019 12:16 PM)UConnHusky Wrote:  

(10-22-2019 06:48 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  If you just replace bad football with mediocre basketball, then UMass would be the better choice.

UConn can take UMass Indy schedule over. UMass in the AAC will take them to new heights as well as the conference itself.

So a school that was never a "power" school, plays in a 15K seat stadium, and is even further outside of the AAC footprint is going to take itself and the conference "to new heights" more than a school that was formerly in a BCS league, has its own 40K seat stadium, better athletic brand, and more dedicated fan base?

Yeah doesnt fit the AAC identity which is metro school conference.

ECU gets a pass for its mid sized market because of its power level stadium.

Recruiting grounds are important to the AAC for long term competitiveness and Mass has none. That is why SMU has been able to pop out of the woodwork this year.

They go for pedigree too. UAB has a final four banner. Plus metro and with a brand new stadium. Fan support has shown potential at times with big legion field crowds over the years.

(10-25-2019 05:38 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(10-25-2019 12:16 PM)UConnHusky Wrote:  

(10-22-2019 06:48 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  If you just replace bad football with mediocre basketball, then UMass would be the better choice.

UConn can take UMass Indy schedule over. UMass in the AAC will take them to new heights as well as the conference itself.

So a school that was never a "power" school, plays in a 15K seat stadium, and is even further outside of the AAC footprint is going to take itself and the conference "to new heights" more than a school that was formerly in a BCS league, has its own 40K seat stadium, better athletic brand, and more dedicated fan base?

Yeah doesnt fit the AAC identity which is metro school conference.

ECU gets a pass for its mid sized market because of its power level stadium.

Recruiting grounds are important to the AAC for long term competitiveness and Mass has none. That is why SMU has been able to pop out of the woodwork this year.

They go for pedigree too. UAB has a final four banner. Plus metro and with a brand new stadium. Fan support has shown potential at times with big legion field crowds over the years.

If AAC can’t get any of the MWC schools to move:
Marshall: For my own personal reasons.
App St: I honestly think they are going to Boise St East.
UAB: Best fit for the AAC academically. Metro. Great College FB town.
Good hoops history
History as a CUSA member with everyone (except Navy & Temple)
Bridges the AAC west and East a bit.
AAC East: Temple, Cincinnati, ECU, UCF, USF, UAB
AAC West: Tulsa, SMU, Houston, Tulane, Memphis, Navy

(10-25-2019 01:24 PM)YNot Wrote:  

(10-25-2019 12:34 PM)Shox Wrote:  I think they would but it would make it much easier on all expansion candidates involved if there was a bridge to better ease the transition and why I think Colorado State is the key to making the whole thing work. The money is there to add BYU, Boise, and then AFA football only. CSU doesn't pay its own way right now but definitely has the capability to do so. It just depends what ESPN is willing to invest in. AFA likely would have the chance and opportunity to work out a deal with one of the networks like Navy and Army have.

Why wouldn't Air Force serve as the bridge?

And, why wouldn't San Diego State be at the front of the line, like they were last go-round?

AFA works perfectly as that bridge and a better one than CSU at that.

San Diego St was in the mix the first time because the AAC was looking at football only schools in the West—SDSU was playing well, had a good market, and plenty of Cal St friends in the Big West willing to help them out for Olympic sports.

I think the football only thing was a huge mistake. The presence of the Catholic 7 made it difficult to shop for a bunch of full members. Conferences work best when everyone is an equal stakeholder. Boise, BYU, AFA, Wich St, Tulsa, SMU, and Houston could actually form a contiguous west division.

Jumping to 14 with

AFA/ VCU combo
UAB
BYU/ St. Louis combo