Ah hell, why not, I'll give my two cents.

I think NDSU is going to win by 7-13 points this weekend. It will be a convincing win but not a blowout. I think in that scenario, if we win out, we are #2 regardless of what happens (assuming NDSU also wins out).

If SDSU wins this weekend it will be by 3-6 points. If that happens, I see them leapfrogging us and our margin of victory over Towson will determine whether or not we keep the #2 spot or if they move us down in favor of NDSU. If NDSU narrowly loses and we go to OT or narrowly beat Towson, I see NDSU only sliding to #2 and us sliding to #3. I'm not saying that's the right thing to do, but I could see it happening. Keep in mind, a loss to us puts Towson at 4-4 (1-3), and looking just at records and scores makes it easy to talk yourself (if you are an NDSU homer) into sliding us. Pair a .500 Towson closely fought game with a potential SBU loss to Nova this weekend and all of a sudden we went to OT with a .500 team.

If SDSU wins this weekend, I think it has a bigger impact than some are willing to admit. Wherever we end up in the rankings (whether its at #1 ahead of both or #2 just ahead of NDSU, or #3 behind both), I think you then should feel pressed to keep your starters in for entire games, even in blowouts if we get to that point, because I truly believe margin of victory will matter. We also need to continue to root for UTC and Nova to crush people as those are likely going to be our signature wins.

I dont know why anyone even doubts for a second we wouldnt be a #1 or #2 if we win out. Its really as simple as that. I know we've been screwed by the committee before, but this would be so far above and beyond that I dont see it happening

(10-22-2019 12:45 PM)jmuduke10 Wrote:  I dont know why anyone even doubts for a second we wouldnt be a #1 or #2 if we win out. Its really as simple as that. I know we've been screwed by the committee before, but this would be so far above and beyond that I dont see it happening

I just don't think it's that cut and dry. It SHOULD be, but I don't have the confidence that the playoff committee will see it that way.

Just don't see any defensible way that we remain undefeated in FCS play and get dropped to 3rd. We beat Towson and we'll have knocked off #5 and #17 in the last 3 weeks. It's not like we're playing scrubs.

(10-22-2019 12:55 PM)Deez Nuts Wrote:  

(10-22-2019 12:45 PM)jmuduke10 Wrote:  I dont know why anyone even doubts for a second we wouldnt be a #1 or #2 if we win out. Its really as simple as that. I know we've been screwed by the committee before, but this would be so far above and beyond that I dont see it happening

I just don't think it's that cut and dry. It SHOULD be, but I don't have the confidence that the playoff committee will see it that way.

I would almost say it the opposite. It shouldn't be cut and dry, but I don't think the playoff committee will see it that way.

I think right now there is NDSU #1 and JMU & SDSU 2A and 2B. I'd put Weber #4

I think a valid argument could be made if SDSU beats NDSU, to have it SDSU and NDSU 1&2 and JMU #3. I just don't think the conference committee would put the top 2 seeds from one conference unless it was blatantly obvious. If JMU wins out it would not be blatantly obvious.

If SDSU won a close game this week, and JMU won this week you will see all three teams getting first place votes next week.

No way the committee puts a one-loss (FCS) team ahead of undefeated (FCS) JMU. We win out, we get either the 1 seed or the 2 seed.

If SDSU wins, #2 JMU should move to #1, NDSU dropping to #3, the wabbits moving up to #2. I think we are only about 100 points ahead of SDSU, but I can't see them leapfrogging us. Stranger things have happened, though.

At least in theory, the public polls are not considered by the committee. I do think the members see the polls though and it has a subtle influence on them.

The championship manual says the "basic criteria" amounts to W/L record and SOS (as measured by NCAA SRS metric).

SRS factors are more or less your W/L record, the W/L record of your opponents, penalty for DII games, bonus for FBS games, and margin of victory (up to 21 points).

As long as JMU is not beaten on W/L record and SRS metric, it would be hard for the committee to justify not giving a top 2 seed. The risk is if Bizon lose and have a higher SRS measure, the committee could choose to use that against us. Seems unlikely given the FBS game we played. We want blowout wins though to push our MOV higher. We also want our opponents to win out.

Note : the SRS is not "binding" but it can be used by the committee. They also have regional committee rankings, and can ultimately vote how they choose, within certain guidelines. Our SRS last year would have justified a #7 seed. Maine was around #13 (excluding the Ivy schools).

TL;DR version - the committee could screw us if they want.

Let me ask you guys this,

Who is better? Villanova or Illinois state?

If ndsu loses, there best win is Illinois st. Ours is Villanova.

Who is better? West Virginia or SDSU?

Our loss will be to a p5 team. There’s will be to an fcs.

If you answer Villanova and West Virginia to these questions, there is no way you put ndsu ahead of us on the polls or end of year seeding if both of us win out.

I'm willing to make a bet with some of you that on November 24th we'll be talking about this thread and the predictions made up to this point if all of us win out after this weekend.

I just can't see the MVFC taking the top 2 seeds when one of them will have a loss, and we're all leaving Sac. St. out of this conversation but if they knock off Weber in 2 weeks (and don't choke against Cal Poly this weekend) they will have a pretty good resume as well. They won't get to a #1, but if they win out then they'll also be undefeated against the FCS and have at least 5 wins vs ranked teams and 2 vs Top 10 teams. They're not there yet, but IF they pull that off then they could have an argument for at least #3 as well. They are probably as much of a wild card as anyone still standing. Their last 3 wins are EWU, Montana St, and Montana, and they still have Weber and UC Davis left to play. So how about the loser between SDSU and NDSU potentially ending up with a 4.

(10-22-2019 02:34 PM)JMUSteeler Wrote:  I just can't see the MVFC taking the top 2 seeds when one of them will have a loss, and we're all leaving Sac. St. out of this conversation but if they knock off Weber in 2 weeks (and don't choke against Cal Poly this weekend) they will have a pretty good resume as well. They won't get to a #1, but if they win out then they'll also be undefeated against the FCS and have at least 5 wins vs ranked teams and 2 vs Top 10 teams. They're not there yet, but IF they pull that off then they could have an argument for at least #3 as well. They are probably as much of a wild card as anyone still standing. Their last 3 wins are EWU, Montana St, and Montana, and they still have Weber and UC Davis left to play. So how about the loser between SDSU and NDSU potentially ending up with a 4.

If Weber wins out their resume is also very impressive with no FCS losses and wins over ranked UNI, UCD, Sac St and Montana.

(10-22-2019 02:43 PM)JMaddy Wrote:  

(10-22-2019 02:34 PM)JMUSteeler Wrote:  I just can't see the MVFC taking the top 2 seeds when one of them will have a loss, and we're all leaving Sac. St. out of this conversation but if they knock off Weber in 2 weeks (and don't choke against Cal Poly this weekend) they will have a pretty good resume as well. They won't get to a #1, but if they win out then they'll also be undefeated against the FCS and have at least 5 wins vs ranked teams and 2 vs Top 10 teams. They're not there yet, but IF they pull that off then they could have an argument for at least #3 as well. They are probably as much of a wild card as anyone still standing. Their last 3 wins are EWU, Montana St, and Montana, and they still have Weber and UC Davis left to play. So how about the loser between SDSU and NDSU potentially ending up with a 4.

If Weber wins out their resume is also very impressive with no FCS losses and wins over ranked UNI, UCD, Sac St and Montana.

True, so really the winner of that game might be the #3.

Don’t be surprised if Kennesaw comes into the picture and gets a relatively high seed also (though top 4 seems questionable)

Only loss is to FBS Kent St by 3 points. Likely a very low SRS score though, they have had a very weak schedule. They are #4 in the coaches poll, which I think is often closer to how the ADs are thinking than Stats is.

(10-22-2019 01:39 PM)Purple Wrote:  No way the committee puts a one-loss (FCS) team ahead of undefeated (FCS) JMU. We win out, we get either the 1 seed or the 2 seed.

If SDSU wins, #2 JMU should move to #1, NDSU dropping to #3, the wabbits moving up to #2. I think we are only about 100 points ahead of SDSU, but I can't see them leapfrogging us. Stranger things have happened, though.

Because we're just going to pretend this didn't happen in 2015 to McNeese State when they put a 1 loss and a 2 FCS loss team above an FCS undefeated and yes, before you ask, McNeese had beaten 2 ranked teams (20/7) I am not sure why we think this year it would be such a shocker for them to do what has literally been done just a few years ago.

I think its funny we say polls are dumb all year, and the playoff committee is biased and illogical each winter, but yet we are so sure about what the committee will determine based on what certain polled teams do against other polled teams.

(10-22-2019 03:44 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  Don’t be surprised if Kennesaw comes into the picture and gets a relatively high seed also (though top 4 seems questionable)

Only loss is to FBS Kent St by 3 points. Likely a very low SRS score though, they have had a very weak schedule. They are #4 in the coaches poll, which I think is often closer to how the ADs are thinking than Stats is.

Kennesaw has TWO Division II wins. If they go 11-1 (9-0 vs a I-AA) yeah they’ll likely get a seed, albeit a #6, #7, or #8. Which will be a crock given their schedule.

(10-22-2019 03:44 PM)doubleduke2016 Wrote:  

(10-22-2019 01:39 PM)Purple Wrote:  No way the committee puts a one-loss (FCS) team ahead of undefeated (FCS) JMU. We win out, we get either the 1 seed or the 2 seed.

If SDSU wins, #2 JMU should move to #1, NDSU dropping to #3, the wabbits moving up to #2. I think we are only about 100 points ahead of SDSU, but I can't see them leapfrogging us. Stranger things have happened, though.

Because we're just going to pretend this didn't happen in 2015 to McNeese State when they put a 1 loss and a 2 FCS loss team above an FCS undefeated and yes, before you ask, McNeese had beaten 2 ranked teams (20/7) I am not sure why we think this year it would be such a shocker for them to do what has literally been done just a few years ago.

-You’re talking the Southland, seen as a weaker conference than the CAA.
-McNeese 2015 was 9-0 vs I-AA (had beaten a Div II, game @ LSU cancelled). They beat 1 playoff team, SHSU, got the #4 seed (The Div II game might have cost them a spot), lost to SHSU in the Round of 16.

Remember 2016, SHSU was #1 in the polls (10-0 vs I-AA, + had a Div II win). Beat 1 playoff team. Got the #5 seed.

If JMU had a Div II win, then I’d be a worried a little about slipping to #3.

The winner of NDSU v/s SDSU is going to be the #1 seed (assuming they win out). The Committee has shown, and believe, that the MVFC is the best conference in FCS and the winner of that conference will be the top seed. If JMU is undefeated at the FCS level, thus sweeping the CAA which is viewed as the 2nd best conference, then we will be the #2 seed. There is no credible way for the Committee, as biased as it has been in the past, to award the same conference the #1 and #2 seeds when there are undefeated FCS Conf. Champs. Just not going to happen.

The question really becomes who is #3 and #4. The winner of Sac State v. Weber State game is playing for one of the final top 4 seeds (assuming they also win out)

If the NDSU v. SDSU game is close, I can see the committee slating the losing team into either the 3rd or 4th seed, but then they have a tough choice.

Do they put SDSU/NDSU loser in the 3rd seed? That would mean they would leapfrog the FCS undefeated Big Sky Champion but would set up potential CAA v. MVFC and MVFC vs. Big Sky Semi-Finals. If they put the Big Sky Champ in as the 3rd seed, then they'd be looking at a potential rematch of SDSU v. NDSU in a #1 vs #4 semi final. I would guess they would not want to see those two teams play again unless it is in Frisco.

if we win out and SDSU takes care of business on Saturday, I see the Bison heading the 'burg as the #3 seed on December 21st with a ticket to Frisco at stake. The Committee has seen that as long as one of us is in Frisco, they will sell it out, so I don't think they hesitate to put us on the same side of the bracket this year.

(10-22-2019 11:00 PM)DRDukes Wrote:  The winner of NDSU v/s SDSU is going to be the #1 seed (assuming they win out). The Committee has shown, and believe, that the MVFC is the best conference in FCS and the winner of that conference will be the top seed. If JMU is undefeated at the FCS level, thus sweeping the CAA which is viewed as the 2nd best conference, then we will be the #2 seed. There is no credible way for the Committee, as biased as it has been in the past, to award the same conference the #1 and #2 seeds when there are undefeated FCS Conf. Champs. Just not going to happen.

Actually there is a very "credible way" (using air quotes, not quoting you) as the stated metric that is used is the NCAA SRS. This system considers margin of victories, strength of schedule and location of the games. As such, a close NDSU away loss to a #1/2 team, which followed 30+ wins against other top 10-15 teams could be "better" (air quotes) than a team who's two toughest opponents were at home and by smaller margins. So if they wanted to be bias, they could point to their own selection criteria as forcing their hand for a SDSU/NDSU #1/2. I mean they use a metric that currently has NDSU (2.0) well ahead of JMU (1.20). A metric that has Princeton (1.82) farther ahead of JMU (1.20) than JMU (1.20) is ahead of 4-3 Nicholls St (1.09).

Ugh oh! For something that is a zero, no chance in hell, JMU sports blog admitted the possibility that an FCS undefeated JMU could end up as a 3 seed behind NDSU.

Those guys must not know what they’re talking about...