I appreciate the use of Vegas odds to rank upsets, because that is objective, or at least inter-subjective.

But my gut tells me South Carolina > Georgia is the biggest, and by a country mile, as SC is certified awful and Georgia a bona-fide national title contender. I seriously doubt there will be anything else like it this year.

I mean, the average college football fan probably could not have told you that Toledo was favored over Bowling Green at all, much less by a massive margin. I couldn't have. Those teams are just off the radar for most.

(10-14-2019 09:25 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  I mean, the average college football fan probably could not have told you that Toledo was favored over Bowling Green at all, much less by a massive margin. I couldn't have. Those teams are just off the radar for most.

I absolutely agree that South Carolina-Georgia was the biggest upset.

But I give more credit to the average college football fan. Toledo has been in bowl games and I think they cracked the Top 25 a few years ago. I'm not sure anyone would say "wow huge upset", but they're probably aware Toledo has had a decent program.

The avg CFB fan, " I love CFB, who in the playoffs "

Over Citadel-Georgia Tech???? Seriously?

Any list like this should probably start by eliminating from the list every game for which the point spread, in retrospect, was obviously a big mistake. Examples: Arizona State and Virginia Tech should never have been 2 TD underdogs to Michigan State and Miami, respectively.

from the Wolfe Computer ratings- this was one of the old BCS Computers: (and yes, there are a few David St. Specials on here)
Date Visitor Home
=================================================================
14-Sep-19 The Citadel 27 Georgia Tech 24
29-Aug-19 Central Arkansas 35 Western Kentucky 28
21-Sep-19 Colorado 34 Arizona St 31
21-Sep-19 Temple 22 Buffalo 38
07-Sep-19 Kentucky St 13 Robert Morris PA 7
28-Sep-19 Stephen F. Austin 24 Lamar 17
29-Aug-19 Rocky Mountain 23 Dickinson St 21
14-Sep-19 Taylor 17 Butler 14
12-Oct-19 South Carolina 20 Georgia 17
07-Sep-19 FDU-Florham 56 Merchant Marine 48

(10-14-2019 12:34 PM)stever20 Wrote:  from the Wolfe Computer ratings- this was one of the old BCS Computers: (and yes, there are a few David St. Specials on here)
Date Visitor Home
=================================================================
14-Sep-19 The Citadel 27 Georgia Tech 24
29-Aug-19 Central Arkansas 35 Western Kentucky 28
21-Sep-19 Colorado 34 Arizona St 31
21-Sep-19 Temple 22 Buffalo 38
07-Sep-19 Kentucky St 13 Robert Morris PA 7
28-Sep-19 Stephen F. Austin 24 Lamar 17
29-Aug-19 Rocky Mountain 23 Dickinson St 21
14-Sep-19 Taylor 17 Butler 14
12-Oct-19 South Carolina 20 Georgia 17
07-Sep-19 FDU-Florham 56 Merchant Marine 48

FDU-Florham to ACC when?

(10-14-2019 01:06 PM)Mav Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 12:34 PM)stever20 Wrote:  from the Wolfe Computer ratings- this was one of the old BCS Computers: (and yes, there are a few David St. Specials on here)
Date Visitor Home
=================================================================
14-Sep-19 The Citadel 27 Georgia Tech 24
29-Aug-19 Central Arkansas 35 Western Kentucky 28
21-Sep-19 Colorado 34 Arizona St 31
21-Sep-19 Temple 22 Buffalo 38
07-Sep-19 Kentucky St 13 Robert Morris PA 7
28-Sep-19 Stephen F. Austin 24 Lamar 17
29-Aug-19 Rocky Mountain 23 Dickinson St 21
14-Sep-19 Taylor 17 Butler 14
12-Oct-19 South Carolina 20 Georgia 17
07-Sep-19 FDU-Florham 56 Merchant Marine 48

FDU-Florham to ACC when?

You mean Big Ten. Travel partner for Rutgers!

(10-14-2019 09:53 AM)McKinney Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 09:25 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  I mean, the average college football fan probably could not have told you that Toledo was favored over Bowling Green at all, much less by a massive margin. I couldn't have. Those teams are just off the radar for most.

I absolutely agree that South Carolina-Georgia was the biggest upset.

But I give more credit to the average college football fan. Toledo has been in bowl games and I think they cracked the Top 25 a few years ago. I'm not sure anyone would say "wow huge upset", but they're probably aware Toledo has had a decent program.

Eh, FWIW, I looked at Toledo's past few years, and they were 7-6 last year, not very impressive. They have gone bowling regularly, but have lost three in a row, all against G5 teams, again not impressive.

They haven't beaten a P5 team since 2015 and generally play very soft schedules, counting Kentucky earlier this year, they have only played three games vs P5 teams the past 3.5 seasons (since the start of 2016), losing them by 14, 22, and 25 points. The 25-point loss was to a 7-6 Miami team last year, at Toledo.

BG was 1-4 before the game, but two of those losses were to Kansas State and Notre Dame. Toledo had won three in a row, but those wins were by seven or fewer points vs BYU, Colorado State, and Western Michigan, none of them any good.

I have no idea why anyone would think they should be a big favorite over anyone, including Bowling Green. Oh well.

Toledo (4-1)
Kentucky L 24-38
FCS W 45-0
Colorado St W 41-35
BYU W 28-21
WMU W 31-24

Bowling Green (1-4)
FCS W 46-3
Kansas St L 0-52
Louisiana Tech L 7-35
Kent State L 20-62
Notre Dame L 0-52

BG hadn't beaten their archrival 25 miles up the road in 10 years.
Toledo hasn't had a losing season in 10 years.
BG hasn't had a winning season in 4 years.

It was the biggest MAC upset I can remember. I asked on the MAC board if there's ever been a bigger upset and the answer was not since 1-8 CMU beat 8-1 (26th in polls) WMU in 2000. So long ago, the Big West was playing 1-A football and Lavell Edwards manned BYU's sideline.

Wyoming over Missouri was huge, especially since Mizzu has not lost since.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

(10-14-2019 02:51 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  Toledo (4-1)
Kentucky L 24-38
FCS W 45-0
Colorado St W 41-35
BYU W 28-21
WMU W 31-24

Bowling Green (1-4)
FCS W 46-3
Kansas St L 0-52
Louisiana Tech L 7-35
Kent State L 20-62
Notre Dame L 0-52

BG hadn't beaten their archrival 25 miles up the road in 10 years.
Toledo hasn't had a losing season in 10 years.
BG hasn't had a winning season in 4 years.

It was the biggest MAC upset I can remember. I asked on the MAC board if there's ever been a bigger upset and the answer was not since 1-8 CMU beat 8-1 (26th in polls) WMU in 2000. So long ago, the Big West was playing 1-A football and Lavell Edwards manned BYU's sideline.

Looking at the Massey rankings, Toledo lost by 14 points to a Kentucky team that is 3-3 and ranked #65. They had wins, all by a TD or less, against the #70, #86, and #119 teams.

Bowling Green is bad, #116, and Toledo surely should have been expected to win, but there's no way that Toledo should have been a 25-point favorite. There's no evidence that they can beat an FBS tomato can by 25 points.

As for history, BG has won two MAC titles the past six seasons, Toledo has won one. Oh well.

(10-14-2019 09:11 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

Garbage. Pitt over Udf.

Can't even get the schools right.

(10-14-2019 09:50 PM)sierrajip Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 09:11 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

Garbage. Pitt over Udf.

Can't even get the schools right.

That's the University, Directional, of Florida.

So you are Ralph Michaels. Idiot.

(10-14-2019 06:13 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 02:51 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  Toledo (4-1)
Kentucky L 24-38
FCS W 45-0
Colorado St W 41-35
BYU W 28-21
WMU W 31-24

Bowling Green (1-4)
FCS W 46-3
Kansas St L 0-52
Louisiana Tech L 7-35
Kent State L 20-62
Notre Dame L 0-52

BG hadn't beaten their archrival 25 miles up the road in 10 years.
Toledo hasn't had a losing season in 10 years.
BG hasn't had a winning season in 4 years.

It was the biggest MAC upset I can remember. I asked on the MAC board if there's ever been a bigger upset and the answer was not since 1-8 CMU beat 8-1 (26th in polls) WMU in 2000. So long ago, the Big West was playing 1-A football and Lavell Edwards manned BYU's sideline.

Looking at the Massey rankings, Toledo lost by 14 points to a Kentucky team that is 3-3 and ranked #65. They had wins, all by a TD or less, against the #70, #86, and #119 teams.

Bowling Green is bad, #116, and Toledo surely should have been expected to win, but there's no way that Toledo should have been a 25-point favorite. There's no evidence that they can beat an FBS tomato can by 25 points.

As for history, BG has won two MAC titles the past six seasons, Toledo has won one. Oh well.

BG won twice with Matt Johnson at QB (in 2013 and 2015) and has been pretty bad since. And I'm pretty sure Kentucky's QB got injured after the Toledo game. However, Toledo lost their QB against BG so to me the win isn't as surprising.

The fact that fewer people follow Toledo and BG doesn't make the game any less of an upset.

(10-15-2019 02:57 PM)NIU007 Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 06:13 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 02:51 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  Toledo (4-1)
Kentucky L 24-38
FCS W 45-0
Colorado St W 41-35
BYU W 28-21
WMU W 31-24

Bowling Green (1-4)
FCS W 46-3
Kansas St L 0-52
Louisiana Tech L 7-35
Kent State L 20-62
Notre Dame L 0-52

BG hadn't beaten their archrival 25 miles up the road in 10 years.
Toledo hasn't had a losing season in 10 years.
BG hasn't had a winning season in 4 years.

It was the biggest MAC upset I can remember. I asked on the MAC board if there's ever been a bigger upset and the answer was not since 1-8 CMU beat 8-1 (26th in polls) WMU in 2000. So long ago, the Big West was playing 1-A football and Lavell Edwards manned BYU's sideline.

Looking at the Massey rankings, Toledo lost by 14 points to a Kentucky team that is 3-3 and ranked #65. They had wins, all by a TD or less, against the #70, #86, and #119 teams.

Bowling Green is bad, #116, and Toledo surely should have been expected to win, but there's no way that Toledo should have been a 25-point favorite. There's no evidence that they can beat an FBS tomato can by 25 points.

As for history, BG has won two MAC titles the past six seasons, Toledo has won one. Oh well.

BG won twice with Matt Johnson at QB (in 2013 and 2015) and has been pretty bad since. And I'm pretty sure Kentucky's QB got injured after the Toledo game. However, Toledo lost their QB against BG so to me the win isn't as surprising.

The fact that fewer people follow Toledo and BG doesn't make the game any less of an upset.

First, I think the fact that fewer people follow Toledo and BG does matter. Part of being an underdog is knowledge that you are an underdog. In the case of say SC vs Georgia, since that is an SEC game between flagship programs, there is a lot of focus and attention, with SC players probably being dogged last week all around in many forums about how they had no chance, were going to get killed, etc. That has a big impact on the psyche.

In contrast, if a tree falls in the forest and nobody is around to hear it, who cares? If you are a technical underdog but there's no hype about the game, nobody focusing on it, then the stigma of being a big dog is far less, and therefore the psychology is much different.

E.g., after the game, an SC player could legit pound his chest and say "we shocked the world!" or at least "we shocked the nation!". Because there actually was a 'nation' of college fans out there who were aware of the game and consciously thought SC was going to get massacred. A BG player couldn't do that, because there was no "audience" of any kind that thought they had no chance.

Second, I did try to understand the betting line objectively, and as i indicated, IMO the numbers just didn't add up. Toledo had been unimpressive in beating three bad teams, there was no real indication they were going to rout BG. Beat them, for sure, but by 27 points? That was IMO completely unjustified given their track record this season.

(10-15-2019 03:47 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  In contrast, if a tree falls in the forest and nobody is around to hear it, who cares? If you are a technical underdog but there's no hype about the game, nobody focusing on it, then the stigma of being a big dog is far less, and therefore the psychology is much different.

A BG player couldn't do that, because there was no "audience" of any kind that thought they had no chance.

This misaligns with the actual experiences the people in the area and involved with both programs go through.

I watched the dvr of the game yesterday and the announcers quoted several past players who said this game meant the whole season to them. One quote even talked about how there were 2 games their family always paid attention to growing up: Ohio St-Michigan, Toledo-BG.

Just because it didn't mean anything in your world, doesn't extrapolate to their world. You live in Baton Rouge, they live in NW Ohio.

(10-15-2019 04:09 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(10-15-2019 03:47 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  In contrast, if a tree falls in the forest and nobody is around to hear it, who cares? If you are a technical underdog but there's no hype about the game, nobody focusing on it, then the stigma of being a big dog is far less, and therefore the psychology is much different.

A BG player couldn't do that, because there was no "audience" of any kind that thought they had no chance.

This misaligns with the actual experiences the people in the area and involved with both programs go through.

I watched the dvr of the game yesterday and the announcers quoted several past players who said this game meant the whole season to them. One quote even talked about how there were 2 games their family always paid attention to growing up: Ohio St-Michigan, Toledo-BG.

Just because it didn't mean anything in your world, doesn't extrapolate to their world. You live in Baton Rouge, they live in NW Ohio.

I didn't make reference to "my world", rather to the world in general. You in contrast are localizing this issue, to what the T/BG communities feel.

FWIW, I have no doubt that friends and family of the players, and even the respective communities, cared about Toledo vs BG. My point was that SC vs Georgia had far greater media attention and awareness, which created a psychological dimension far diminished with T/BG, especially in today's world where a player is more likely to care about what is being said on Sportscenter or Twitter than what the folks around the corner are thinking.