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Biggest Upsets of 2019
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Bronco'14 Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Biggest Upsets of 2019
(10-14-2019 02:35 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  I have no idea why anyone would think Toledo should be a big favorite over anyone, including Bowling Green. Oh well.
03-lmfao03-lmfao03-lmfao03-lmfao

You're clueless and don't know anything about MAC or G5 football. Go home.

Also, it doesn't matter if 'no one' you know would know to pick Toledo because how much the media talks about a game doesn't affect how big an upset is.

Plus, UGA always chokes in big games.
(This post was last modified: 10-15-2019 04:40 PM by Bronco'14.)
10-15-2019 04:38 PM
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NIU007 Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Biggest Upsets of 2019
(10-15-2019 04:17 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-15-2019 04:09 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  
(10-15-2019 03:47 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  In contrast, if a tree falls in the forest and nobody is around to hear it, who cares? If you are a technical underdog but there's no hype about the game, nobody focusing on it, then the stigma of being a big dog is far less, and therefore the psychology is much different.

A BG player couldn't do that, because there was no "audience" of any kind that thought they had no chance.

This misaligns with the actual experiences the people in the area and involved with both programs go through.

I watched the dvr of the game yesterday and the announcers quoted several past players who said this game meant the whole season to them. One quote even talked about how there were 2 games their family always paid attention to growing up: Ohio St-Michigan, Toledo-BG.

Just because it didn't mean anything in your world, doesn't extrapolate to their world. You live in Baton Rouge, they live in NW Ohio.

I didn't make reference to "my world", rather to the world in general. You in contrast are localizing this issue, to what the T/BG communities feel.

FWIW, I have no doubt that friends and family of the players, and even the respective communities, cared about Toledo vs BG. My point was that SC vs Georgia had far greater media attention and awareness, which created a psychological dimension far diminished with T/BG, especially in today's world where a player is more likely to care about what is being said on Sportscenter or Twitter than what the folks around the corner are thinking.

Why would the psychological dimension favor one team over another anyway? None of this would change the betting line. You're stretching here because you think the only games that matter are the P5 ones.
10-15-2019 05:23 PM
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NIU007 Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Biggest Upsets of 2019
(10-15-2019 04:38 PM)Bronco14 Wrote:  
(10-14-2019 02:35 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  I have no idea why anyone would think Toledo should be a big favorite over anyone, including Bowling Green. Oh well.
03-lmfao03-lmfao03-lmfao03-lmfao

You're clueless and don't know anything about MAC or G5 football. Go home.

Also, it doesn't matter if 'no one' you know would know to pick Toledo because how much the media talks about a game doesn't affect how big an upset is.

Plus, UGA always chokes in big games.

Yea, obviously Quo doesn't follow the MAC.
10-15-2019 05:24 PM
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Post: #24
RE: Biggest Upsets of 2019
(10-15-2019 04:09 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  
(10-15-2019 03:47 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  In contrast, if a tree falls in the forest and nobody is around to hear it, who cares? If you are a technical underdog but there's no hype about the game, nobody focusing on it, then the stigma of being a big dog is far less, and therefore the psychology is much different.

A BG player couldn't do that, because there was no "audience" of any kind that thought they had no chance.

This misaligns with the actual experiences the people in the area and involved with both programs go through.

I watched the dvr of the game yesterday and the announcers quoted several past players who said this game meant the whole season to them. One quote even talked about how there were 2 games their family always paid attention to growing up: Ohio St-Michigan, Toledo-BG.

Just because it didn't mean anything in your world, doesn't extrapolate to their world. You live in Baton Rouge, they live in NW Ohio.

And that also makes it less of an upset, since it is a rivalry game.
10-15-2019 05:39 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Biggest Upsets of 2019
(10-15-2019 04:38 PM)Bronco14 Wrote:  
(10-14-2019 02:35 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  I have no idea why anyone would think Toledo should be a big favorite over anyone, including Bowling Green. Oh well.
03-lmfao03-lmfao03-lmfao03-lmfao

You're clueless and don't know anything about MAC or G5 football. Go home.

Also, it doesn't matter if 'no one' you know would know to pick Toledo because how much the media talks about a game doesn't affect how big an upset is.

This is a very dumb post. I explained exactly why it made zero sense to favor T over BG by that many points. Sorry you can't handle that.

03-lmfao
10-15-2019 06:24 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Biggest Upsets of 2019
(10-15-2019 05:23 PM)NIU007 Wrote:  
(10-15-2019 04:17 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-15-2019 04:09 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  
(10-15-2019 03:47 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  In contrast, if a tree falls in the forest and nobody is around to hear it, who cares? If you are a technical underdog but there's no hype about the game, nobody focusing on it, then the stigma of being a big dog is far less, and therefore the psychology is much different.

A BG player couldn't do that, because there was no "audience" of any kind that thought they had no chance.

This misaligns with the actual experiences the people in the area and involved with both programs go through.

I watched the dvr of the game yesterday and the announcers quoted several past players who said this game meant the whole season to them. One quote even talked about how there were 2 games their family always paid attention to growing up: Ohio St-Michigan, Toledo-BG.

Just because it didn't mean anything in your world, doesn't extrapolate to their world. You live in Baton Rouge, they live in NW Ohio.

I didn't make reference to "my world", rather to the world in general. You in contrast are localizing this issue, to what the T/BG communities feel.

FWIW, I have no doubt that friends and family of the players, and even the respective communities, cared about Toledo vs BG. My point was that SC vs Georgia had far greater media attention and awareness, which created a psychological dimension far diminished with T/BG, especially in today's world where a player is more likely to care about what is being said on Sportscenter or Twitter than what the folks around the corner are thinking.

Why would the psychological dimension favor one team over another anyway? None of this would change the betting line. You're stretching here because you think the only games that matter are the P5 ones.

Now you've confused yourself. I explained how the psychological dimension hurts an underdog worse when their underdog status is widely known and discussed. It's like any humiliating or embarrassing situation - the embarrassment and morale problem is less when fewer others know about it. Georgia, e.g., is a lot more embarrassed right now than Toledo is.

Beyond that, as I've said at least twice before, and as should be obvious to anyone who isn't a defensive MAC fan with an ax to grind about my posts, I did in fact explain in detail why the betting line made little sense even strictly on technical grounds. There was no good reason to think Toledo was going to beat BG by 27 points. No facts supported that idea.
10-15-2019 06:28 PM
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Post: #27
RE: Biggest Upsets of 2019
(10-14-2019 12:34 PM)stever20 Wrote:  from the Wolfe Computer ratings- this was one of the old BCS Computers: (and yes, there are a few David St. Specials on here)
Date Visitor Home
=================================================================
14-Sep-19 The Citadel 27 Georgia Tech 24
29-Aug-19 Central Arkansas 35 Western Kentucky 28
21-Sep-19 Colorado 34 Arizona St 31
21-Sep-19 Temple 22 Buffalo 38
07-Sep-19 Kentucky St 13 Robert Morris PA 7
28-Sep-19 Stephen F. Austin 24 Lamar 17
29-Aug-19 Rocky Mountain 23 Dickinson St 21
14-Sep-19 Taylor 17 Butler 14
12-Oct-19 South Carolina 20 Georgia 17
07-Sep-19 FDU-Florham 56 Merchant Marine 48

Central Arkansas to the AAC
10-16-2019 08:17 AM
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Post: #28
RE: Biggest Upsets of 2019
I just love the David St. Upset specials in there....
10-16-2019 08:35 AM
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Bronco'14 Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Biggest Upsets of 2019
(10-15-2019 06:28 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  There was no good reason to think Toledo was going to beat BG by 27 points. No facts supported that idea.

Good MAC teams blow-out awful MAC teams. Toledo's a favorite to win the Conference. BGSU was winless vs the FBS.

Don't be surprised if Toledo beats other bottom-tier MAC teams by that spread or BGSU loses to top-tier MAC teams by that spread. Happens regularly in the MAC. Stop acting like you follow G5 or MAC football.

If you're trying to argue 'UGA was bigger because ESPN covers it more', I get it. But you said 'Toledo shouldn't be favored by 30 over anyone, let alone BGSU', which is laughable. That's what the MAC fans on here are taking offense at. Comes across as very ignorant of the Conference.
(This post was last modified: 10-16-2019 09:14 AM by Bronco'14.)
10-16-2019 09:03 AM
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RE: Biggest Upsets of 2019
(10-16-2019 09:03 AM)Bronco14 Wrote:  
(10-15-2019 06:28 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  There was no good reason to think Toledo was going to beat BG by 27 points. No facts supported that idea.

Good MAC teams blow-out awful MAC teams. Toledo's a favorite to win the Conference. BGSU was winless.

Don't be surprised if Toledo beats other bottom-tier MAC teams by that spread or BGSU loses to top-tier MAC teams by that spread. Happens regularly in the MAC. Stop acting like you follow G5 or MAC football.

If you're trying to argue 'UGA was bigger because ESPN covers it more', I get it. But you said 'Toledo shouldn't be favored by 30 over anyone, let alone BGSU', which is laughable. That's what the MAC fans on here are taking offense at. Comes across as very ignorant of the Conference.

You pack a lot of 'wrong' in to a short post:

1) I don't follow G5 football? I watched four G5 games this past Saturday alone - USF vs BYU, Cincy vs Houston, Temple vs Memphis, and Boise vs Hawaii. I'll watch USA vs Troy tonight and Marshall vs FAU on Friday.

2) I didn't say that Toledo shouldn't be favored by 30 over "anyone", I limited my comment to FBS competition. Both Toledo and BG had beaten FCS teams by more (that's a third thing you are wrong about, as BG was not winless going in to the Toledo game).

And I explained why: Toledo had beaten three bad FBS teams, teams ranked below 75 in the computers, and hadn't beaten any of them by more than 7 points. They had played a bad P5 team, Kentucky, and lost to them by 14 points.

Yes, BG is a bad team, one of the worst, but we are talking shades of badness here, so to me, not much reason to think Toledo was going to beat them by a huge margin. They hadn't done it to any of the other bad teams they'd played, because they themselves had given no indication of being much good (is last year's 7-6 record why they are a "MAC favorite" this year? Doesn't say much for the MAC does it?).

Maybe the Vegas oddsmakers don't "know MAC football" and so overrated Toledo's chances?

03-lmfao
(This post was last modified: 10-16-2019 09:25 AM by quo vadis.)
10-16-2019 09:20 AM
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IWokeUpLikeThis Offline
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RE: Biggest Upsets of 2019
Bowling Green was winless against FBS. They lost 62-20 to Kent State, and lost their other 3 games 52-0, 52-0, & 35-7. The three teams Toledo beat - BYU, WMU, & Colorado St - are all likely better than Kent St or at worst indistinguishable.

I went to the Miami-Toledo game and it was definitely a closer game than the 49-24 final indicates. It was 28-21 near the end of the 3rd.
10-16-2019 09:33 AM
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Bronco'14 Offline
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RE: Biggest Upsets of 2019
(10-16-2019 09:20 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-16-2019 09:03 AM)Bronco14 Wrote:  
(10-15-2019 06:28 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  There was no good reason to think Toledo was going to beat BG by 27 points. No facts supported that idea.

Good MAC teams blow-out awful MAC teams. Toledo's a favorite to win the Conference. BGSU was winless.

Don't be surprised if Toledo beats other bottom-tier MAC teams by that spread or BGSU loses to top-tier MAC teams by that spread. Happens regularly in the MAC. Stop acting like you follow G5 or MAC football.

If you're trying to argue 'UGA was bigger because ESPN covers it more', I get it. But you said 'Toledo shouldn't be favored by 30 over anyone, let alone BGSU', which is laughable. That's what the MAC fans on here are taking offense at. Comes across as very ignorant of the Conference.

You pack a lot of 'wrong' in to a short post:

1) I don't follow G5 football? I watched four G5 games this past Saturday alone - USF vs BYU, Cincy vs Houston, Temple vs Memphis, and Boise vs Hawaii. I'll watch USA vs Troy tonight and Marshall vs FAU on Friday.

2) I didn't say that Toledo shouldn't be favored by 30 over "anyone", I limited my comment to FBS competition. Both Toledo and BG had beaten FCS teams by more (that's a third thing you are wrong about, as BG was not winless going in to the Toledo game).

And I explained why: Toledo had beaten three bad FBS teams, teams ranked below 75 in the computers, and hadn't beaten any of them by more than 7 points. They had played a bad P5 team, Kentucky, and lost to them by 14 points.

Yes, BG is a bad team, one of the worst, but we are talking shades of badness here, so to me, not much reason to think Toledo was going to beat them by a huge margin. They hadn't done it to any of the other bad teams they'd played, because they themselves had given no indication of being much good (is last year's 7-6 record why they are a "MAC favorite" this year? Doesn't say much for the MAC does it?).

Maybe the Vegas oddsmakers don't "know MAC football" and so overrated Toledo's chances?

03-lmfao

‘UT being 7-5 last year and being the MAC favorite this year’ is a red herring. What matters is even 7-5 MAC teams can beat other MAC teams in blow-outs. This season already CMU beat EMU by 26. Last year UT beat BSU by 32, beat WMU by 27, CMU by 38. And you’re saying ‘nope, UT shouldn’t be favored vs a MAC team by 30’ It wasn’t unreal AT ALL for odds-makers to set UT beating BGSU by 30. I can pull up other scores of MAC teams beating MAC teams by 30, but I’ll limit it to last year’s UT squad for now.

Go back to looking up MAC scores on ESPN or the ticker at the bottom of SportsCenter during the UGA game highlights. 03-lmfao03-lmfao03-lmfao
(This post was last modified: 10-16-2019 12:58 PM by Bronco'14.)
10-16-2019 12:50 PM
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Bronco'14 Offline
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RE: Biggest Upsets of 2019
(10-16-2019 09:33 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  Bowling Green was winless against FBS. They lost 62-20 to Kent State, and lost their other 3 games 52-0, 52-0, & 35-7. The three teams Toledo beat - BYU, WMU, & Colorado St - are all likely better than Kent St or at worst indistinguishable.

I went to the Miami-Toledo game and it was definitely a closer game than the 49-24 final indicates. It was 28-21 near the end of the 3rd.
So what’s your opinion? You’re just saying final scores and end of 3Q score for UT/Kentucky
(This post was last modified: 10-16-2019 01:11 PM by Bronco'14.)
10-16-2019 01:08 PM
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Post: #34
RE: Biggest Upsets of 2019
(10-15-2019 04:38 PM)Bronco14 Wrote:  
(10-14-2019 02:35 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  I have no idea why anyone would think Toledo should be a big favorite over anyone, including Bowling Green. Oh well.
03-lmfao03-lmfao03-lmfao03-lmfao

You're clueless and don't know anything about MAC or G5 football. Go home.

Also, it doesn't matter if 'no one' you know would know to pick Toledo because how much the media talks about a game doesn't affect how big an upset is.

Plus, UGA always chokes in big games.

South Carolina wasn't a big game. That's a big reason why it was such a huge upset.
10-16-2019 01:20 PM
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RE: Biggest Upsets of 2019
(10-16-2019 09:20 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-16-2019 09:03 AM)Bronco14 Wrote:  
(10-15-2019 06:28 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  There was no good reason to think Toledo was going to beat BG by 27 points. No facts supported that idea.

Good MAC teams blow-out awful MAC teams. Toledo's a favorite to win the Conference. BGSU was winless.

Don't be surprised if Toledo beats other bottom-tier MAC teams by that spread or BGSU loses to top-tier MAC teams by that spread. Happens regularly in the MAC. Stop acting like you follow G5 or MAC football.

If you're trying to argue 'UGA was bigger because ESPN covers it more', I get it. But you said 'Toledo shouldn't be favored by 30 over anyone, let alone BGSU', which is laughable. That's what the MAC fans on here are taking offense at. Comes across as very ignorant of the Conference.

You pack a lot of 'wrong' in to a short post:

1) I don't follow G5 football? I watched four G5 games this past Saturday alone - USF vs BYU, Cincy vs Houston, Temple vs Memphis, and Boise vs Hawaii. I'll watch USA vs Troy tonight and Marshall vs FAU on Friday.

2) I didn't say that Toledo shouldn't be favored by 30 over "anyone", I limited my comment to FBS competition. Both Toledo and BG had beaten FCS teams by more (that's a third thing you are wrong about, as BG was not winless going in to the Toledo game).

And I explained why: Toledo had beaten three bad FBS teams, teams ranked below 75 in the computers, and hadn't beaten any of them by more than 7 points. They had played a bad P5 team, Kentucky, and lost to them by 14 points.

Yes, BG is a bad team, one of the worst, but we are talking shades of badness here, so to me, not much reason to think Toledo was going to beat them by a huge margin. They hadn't done it to any of the other bad teams they'd played, because they themselves had given no indication of being much good (is last year's 7-6 record why they are a "MAC favorite" this year? Doesn't say much for the MAC does it?).

Maybe the Vegas oddsmakers don't "know MAC football" and so overrated Toledo's chances?

03-lmfao

Last year Toledo beat WMU by 27, Ball State by 32, Kent State by 22, and CMU by 38, almost in consecutive weeks. They have most of the same players this year, which is why many picked them to win the MAC west, the stronger of the 2 divisions, while BG was picked near the bottom of the weaker MAC East. And NOBODY gives up 62 points to Kent State. NOBODY. Except for BG apparently.
(This post was last modified: 10-16-2019 03:18 PM by NIU007.)
10-16-2019 03:15 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: Biggest Upsets of 2019
(10-16-2019 03:15 PM)NIU007 Wrote:  
(10-16-2019 09:20 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-16-2019 09:03 AM)Bronco14 Wrote:  
(10-15-2019 06:28 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  There was no good reason to think Toledo was going to beat BG by 27 points. No facts supported that idea.

Good MAC teams blow-out awful MAC teams. Toledo's a favorite to win the Conference. BGSU was winless.

Don't be surprised if Toledo beats other bottom-tier MAC teams by that spread or BGSU loses to top-tier MAC teams by that spread. Happens regularly in the MAC. Stop acting like you follow G5 or MAC football.

If you're trying to argue 'UGA was bigger because ESPN covers it more', I get it. But you said 'Toledo shouldn't be favored by 30 over anyone, let alone BGSU', which is laughable. That's what the MAC fans on here are taking offense at. Comes across as very ignorant of the Conference.

You pack a lot of 'wrong' in to a short post:

1) I don't follow G5 football? I watched four G5 games this past Saturday alone - USF vs BYU, Cincy vs Houston, Temple vs Memphis, and Boise vs Hawaii. I'll watch USA vs Troy tonight and Marshall vs FAU on Friday.

2) I didn't say that Toledo shouldn't be favored by 30 over "anyone", I limited my comment to FBS competition. Both Toledo and BG had beaten FCS teams by more (that's a third thing you are wrong about, as BG was not winless going in to the Toledo game).

And I explained why: Toledo had beaten three bad FBS teams, teams ranked below 75 in the computers, and hadn't beaten any of them by more than 7 points. They had played a bad P5 team, Kentucky, and lost to them by 14 points.

Yes, BG is a bad team, one of the worst, but we are talking shades of badness here, so to me, not much reason to think Toledo was going to beat them by a huge margin. They hadn't done it to any of the other bad teams they'd played, because they themselves had given no indication of being much good (is last year's 7-6 record why they are a "MAC favorite" this year? Doesn't say much for the MAC does it?).

Maybe the Vegas oddsmakers don't "know MAC football" and so overrated Toledo's chances?

03-lmfao

Last year Toledo beat WMU by 27, Ball State by 32, Kent State by 22, and CMU by 38, almost in consecutive weeks. They have most of the same players this year, which is why many picked them to win the MAC west, the stronger of the 2 divisions, while BG was picked near the bottom of the weaker MAC East.

I get that, but it's also true that Toledo was 7-6 last year and didn't come close to winning the MAC, they finished 3rd in their division. So it's not like they were returning a murderer's row of great players.

In any event, if someone last week had told me I would have to bet the Toledo - BG game, and that I had to bet BG but without knowing the official line, after looking at this year's results I would have insisted on about 10 points. Given Toledo's play so far this year, that's what the line IMO should have been. Nothing like 27 points, they hadn't beaten any of their three bad FBS opponents by anything like that margin.
10-16-2019 03:21 PM
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NIU007 Offline
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RE: Biggest Upsets of 2019
(10-16-2019 03:21 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-16-2019 03:15 PM)NIU007 Wrote:  
(10-16-2019 09:20 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-16-2019 09:03 AM)Bronco14 Wrote:  
(10-15-2019 06:28 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  There was no good reason to think Toledo was going to beat BG by 27 points. No facts supported that idea.

Good MAC teams blow-out awful MAC teams. Toledo's a favorite to win the Conference. BGSU was winless.

Don't be surprised if Toledo beats other bottom-tier MAC teams by that spread or BGSU loses to top-tier MAC teams by that spread. Happens regularly in the MAC. Stop acting like you follow G5 or MAC football.

If you're trying to argue 'UGA was bigger because ESPN covers it more', I get it. But you said 'Toledo shouldn't be favored by 30 over anyone, let alone BGSU', which is laughable. That's what the MAC fans on here are taking offense at. Comes across as very ignorant of the Conference.

You pack a lot of 'wrong' in to a short post:

1) I don't follow G5 football? I watched four G5 games this past Saturday alone - USF vs BYU, Cincy vs Houston, Temple vs Memphis, and Boise vs Hawaii. I'll watch USA vs Troy tonight and Marshall vs FAU on Friday.

2) I didn't say that Toledo shouldn't be favored by 30 over "anyone", I limited my comment to FBS competition. Both Toledo and BG had beaten FCS teams by more (that's a third thing you are wrong about, as BG was not winless going in to the Toledo game).

And I explained why: Toledo had beaten three bad FBS teams, teams ranked below 75 in the computers, and hadn't beaten any of them by more than 7 points. They had played a bad P5 team, Kentucky, and lost to them by 14 points.

Yes, BG is a bad team, one of the worst, but we are talking shades of badness here, so to me, not much reason to think Toledo was going to beat them by a huge margin. They hadn't done it to any of the other bad teams they'd played, because they themselves had given no indication of being much good (is last year's 7-6 record why they are a "MAC favorite" this year? Doesn't say much for the MAC does it?).

Maybe the Vegas oddsmakers don't "know MAC football" and so overrated Toledo's chances?

03-lmfao

Last year Toledo beat WMU by 27, Ball State by 32, Kent State by 22, and CMU by 38, almost in consecutive weeks. They have most of the same players this year, which is why many picked them to win the MAC west, the stronger of the 2 divisions, while BG was picked near the bottom of the weaker MAC East.

I get that, but it's also true that Toledo was 7-6 last year and didn't come close to winning the MAC, they finished 3rd in their division. So it's not like they were returning a murderer's row of great players.

In any event, if someone last week had told me I would have to bet the Toledo - BG game, and that I had to bet BG but without knowing the official line, after looking at this year's results I would have insisted on about 10 points. Given Toledo's play so far this year, that's what the line IMO should have been. Nothing like 27 points, they hadn't beaten any of their three bad FBS opponents by anything like that margin.

If you were following the MAC you would have known to bet the farm on BG then. Would have been easy money.

MAC teams MANY times score not very much against P5 teams, even mediocre ones, and then put up 40+ against a MAC foe. NIU has done that many times. We've single-handedly made the MAC look bad doing that. And Toledo can always put up points.
10-16-2019 03:36 PM
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Post: #38
RE: Biggest Upsets of 2019
(10-16-2019 03:36 PM)NIU007 Wrote:  
(10-16-2019 03:21 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-16-2019 03:15 PM)NIU007 Wrote:  
(10-16-2019 09:20 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-16-2019 09:03 AM)Bronco14 Wrote:  Good MAC teams blow-out awful MAC teams. Toledo's a favorite to win the Conference. BGSU was winless.

Don't be surprised if Toledo beats other bottom-tier MAC teams by that spread or BGSU loses to top-tier MAC teams by that spread. Happens regularly in the MAC. Stop acting like you follow G5 or MAC football.

If you're trying to argue 'UGA was bigger because ESPN covers it more', I get it. But you said 'Toledo shouldn't be favored by 30 over anyone, let alone BGSU', which is laughable. That's what the MAC fans on here are taking offense at. Comes across as very ignorant of the Conference.

You pack a lot of 'wrong' in to a short post:

1) I don't follow G5 football? I watched four G5 games this past Saturday alone - USF vs BYU, Cincy vs Houston, Temple vs Memphis, and Boise vs Hawaii. I'll watch USA vs Troy tonight and Marshall vs FAU on Friday.

2) I didn't say that Toledo shouldn't be favored by 30 over "anyone", I limited my comment to FBS competition. Both Toledo and BG had beaten FCS teams by more (that's a third thing you are wrong about, as BG was not winless going in to the Toledo game).

And I explained why: Toledo had beaten three bad FBS teams, teams ranked below 75 in the computers, and hadn't beaten any of them by more than 7 points. They had played a bad P5 team, Kentucky, and lost to them by 14 points.

Yes, BG is a bad team, one of the worst, but we are talking shades of badness here, so to me, not much reason to think Toledo was going to beat them by a huge margin. They hadn't done it to any of the other bad teams they'd played, because they themselves had given no indication of being much good (is last year's 7-6 record why they are a "MAC favorite" this year? Doesn't say much for the MAC does it?).

Maybe the Vegas oddsmakers don't "know MAC football" and so overrated Toledo's chances?

03-lmfao

Last year Toledo beat WMU by 27, Ball State by 32, Kent State by 22, and CMU by 38, almost in consecutive weeks. They have most of the same players this year, which is why many picked them to win the MAC west, the stronger of the 2 divisions, while BG was picked near the bottom of the weaker MAC East.

I get that, but it's also true that Toledo was 7-6 last year and didn't come close to winning the MAC, they finished 3rd in their division. So it's not like they were returning a murderer's row of great players.

In any event, if someone last week had told me I would have to bet the Toledo - BG game, and that I had to bet BG but without knowing the official line, after looking at this year's results I would have insisted on about 10 points. Given Toledo's play so far this year, that's what the line IMO should have been. Nothing like 27 points, they hadn't beaten any of their three bad FBS opponents by anything like that margin.

If you were following the MAC you would have known to bet the farm on BG then. Would have been easy money.

MAC teams MANY times score not very much against P5 teams, even mediocre ones, and then put up 40+ against a MAC foe. NIU has done that many times. We've single-handedly made the MAC look bad doing that. And Toledo can always put up points.

I get that. But what would have stood out for me is that against three bad G5 teams, one MAC, one MW, one BYU, Toledo hadn't been able to win by more than 7 points.
10-16-2019 06:29 PM
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NIU007 Offline
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Post: #39
RE: Biggest Upsets of 2019
(10-16-2019 06:29 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-16-2019 03:36 PM)NIU007 Wrote:  
(10-16-2019 03:21 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-16-2019 03:15 PM)NIU007 Wrote:  
(10-16-2019 09:20 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  You pack a lot of 'wrong' in to a short post:

1) I don't follow G5 football? I watched four G5 games this past Saturday alone - USF vs BYU, Cincy vs Houston, Temple vs Memphis, and Boise vs Hawaii. I'll watch USA vs Troy tonight and Marshall vs FAU on Friday.

2) I didn't say that Toledo shouldn't be favored by 30 over "anyone", I limited my comment to FBS competition. Both Toledo and BG had beaten FCS teams by more (that's a third thing you are wrong about, as BG was not winless going in to the Toledo game).

And I explained why: Toledo had beaten three bad FBS teams, teams ranked below 75 in the computers, and hadn't beaten any of them by more than 7 points. They had played a bad P5 team, Kentucky, and lost to them by 14 points.

Yes, BG is a bad team, one of the worst, but we are talking shades of badness here, so to me, not much reason to think Toledo was going to beat them by a huge margin. They hadn't done it to any of the other bad teams they'd played, because they themselves had given no indication of being much good (is last year's 7-6 record why they are a "MAC favorite" this year? Doesn't say much for the MAC does it?).

Maybe the Vegas oddsmakers don't "know MAC football" and so overrated Toledo's chances?

03-lmfao

Last year Toledo beat WMU by 27, Ball State by 32, Kent State by 22, and CMU by 38, almost in consecutive weeks. They have most of the same players this year, which is why many picked them to win the MAC west, the stronger of the 2 divisions, while BG was picked near the bottom of the weaker MAC East.

I get that, but it's also true that Toledo was 7-6 last year and didn't come close to winning the MAC, they finished 3rd in their division. So it's not like they were returning a murderer's row of great players.

In any event, if someone last week had told me I would have to bet the Toledo - BG game, and that I had to bet BG but without knowing the official line, after looking at this year's results I would have insisted on about 10 points. Given Toledo's play so far this year, that's what the line IMO should have been. Nothing like 27 points, they hadn't beaten any of their three bad FBS opponents by anything like that margin.

If you were following the MAC you would have known to bet the farm on BG then. Would have been easy money.

MAC teams MANY times score not very much against P5 teams, even mediocre ones, and then put up 40+ against a MAC foe. NIU has done that many times. We've single-handedly made the MAC look bad doing that. And Toledo can always put up points.

I get that. But what would have stood out for me is that against three bad G5 teams, one MAC, one MW, one BYU, Toledo hadn't been able to win by more than 7 points.

What stood out to me is that BG had lost by 52 to Kansas State, by 28 to La Tech, 52 to Notre Dame (and they didn't score against Kansas State or Notre Dame), and even moreso, by 42 to Kent State, a team not known for offense (although Kent State has played a very tough schedule so far this year).
10-17-2019 07:48 AM
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