Sounds like Air Force wants out of the MW and ready to take UConn place.

(10-14-2019 03:18 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  I definitely don't believe that UConn should be expecting anything at all from the AAC. It was UConn's choice to leave and, even though I believe that the school will ultimately be better off for the move, they have to deal with the consequences no matter how painful it might be scheduling-wise for the next couple of years.

Do you see any reason to believe that UConn’s football program, specifically, will be better-off as an Independent than (say) UMass or New Mexico State? If so, what?

(10-14-2019 03:18 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  I definitely don't believe that UConn should be expecting anything at all from the AAC. It was UConn's choice to leave and, even though I believe that the school will ultimately be better off for the move, they have to deal with the consequences no matter how painful it might be scheduling-wise for the next couple of years.

On the other hand, I've been continually perplexed by the overconfidence (at least publicly) from Mike Aresco that the NCAA is going to grant the outcome that the AAC truly wants, which is essentially to change the conference championship game qualification rules entirely to allow for something less than a full conference round robin for 11 schools. Even if there is a MAC-type waiver where there are 2 divisions that are playing less than a division round robin, that waiver had always been stipulated as a temporary stopgap. The MAC was clear that they didn't want the situation to be permanent and were looking to change its membership composition. In contrast, the AAC is preemptively stating that they don't want to expand, which would effectively mean that they want whatever waiver that is granted by the NCAA to be permanent. I really don't think the NCAA is going to do that here. Even very recent history (most particularly the rebuffing of the ACC's attempt to remove any divisional requirement for conference championship games) says that the NCAA's membership is much more conservative regarding the conference championship game rules than the fans seem to be.

The upshot is that if the NCAA only grants a temporary waiver (which is the MAC precedent), then the AAC is still going to need to find a 12th football member regardless of whether Aresco and the AAC members want one or not. From that perspective, which 12th football member that the AAC could *realistically* add (e.g. BYU and Army are NOT realistic) that would add or at least maintain financial value? There might be a long list of football *teams* better than UConn out there in the MAC/C-USA/Sun Belt, but we all should know that conference realignment isn't really about on-the-field prowess. Instead, is there really a *school* better than UConn out there, even when we're just talking about a football-only membership? This is where the bridges between UConn and the AAC may not necessarily have been burned.

Look - if I were personally running either UConn or the AAC, I would want the divorce to be final. So, I'm not saying that UConn staying the AAC as a football-only member is a great idea in a vacuum. However, circumstances make strange bedfellows. The AAC can't really know how to move until it actually receives a verification from the NCAA of what the AAC is allowed to do regarding a conference championship game (and it may not be allowed to as much as it would like).

I agree with all of this. My guess is despite Aresco's claims to start working on a permanent rule change if he gets the waiver, he's really just buying 2 years to find a replacement for UConn football. And given the recent comments from the Air Force coach, my guess is it will be the Falcons.

(10-14-2019 03:18 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  I definitely don't believe that UConn should be expecting anything at all from the AAC. It was UConn's choice to leave and, even though I believe that the school will ultimately be better off for the move, they have to deal with the consequences no matter how painful it might be scheduling-wise for the next couple of years.

On the other hand, I've been continually perplexed by the overconfidence (at least publicly) from Mike Aresco that the NCAA is going to grant the outcome that the AAC truly wants, which is essentially to change the conference championship game qualification rules entirely to allow for something less than a full conference round robin for 11 schools. Even if there is a MAC-type waiver where there are 2 divisions that are playing less than a division round robin, that waiver had always been stipulated as a temporary stopgap. The MAC was clear that they didn't want the situation to be permanent and were looking to change its membership composition. In contrast, the AAC is preemptively stating that they don't want to expand, which would effectively mean that they want whatever waiver that is granted by the NCAA to be permanent. I really don't think the NCAA is going to do that here. Even very recent history (most particularly the rebuffing of the ACC's attempt to remove any divisional requirement for conference championship games) says that the NCAA's membership is much more conservative regarding the conference championship game rules than the fans seem to be.

The upshot is that if the NCAA only grants a temporary waiver (which is the MAC precedent), then the AAC is still going to need to find a 12th football member regardless of whether Aresco and the AAC members want one or not. From that perspective, which 12th football member that the AAC could *realistically* add (e.g. BYU and Army are NOT realistic) that would add or at least maintain financial value? There might be a long list of football *teams* better than UConn out there in the MAC/C-USA/Sun Belt, but we all should know that conference realignment isn't really about on-the-field prowess. Instead, is there really a *school* better than UConn out there, even when we're just talking about a football-only membership? This is where the bridges between UConn and the AAC may not necessarily have been burned.

Look - if I were personally running either UConn or the AAC, I would want the divorce to be final. So, I'm not saying that UConn staying the AAC as a football-only member is a great idea in a vacuum. However, circumstances make strange bedfellows. The AAC can't really know how to move until it actually receives a verification from the NCAA of what the AAC is allowed to do regarding a conference championship game (and it may not be allowed to as much as it would like).

Honestly you, I and no one else has any idea why Aresco is so "confident that he'll get a waiver ". However what we do know is that outside of the AAC doubters assertions that ESPN will reduce our contract, no one has seen or heard a peep out of any outlet or credible source that ESPN is going to do just that. For all we know they could be working with the AAC behind the scenes on several different scenarios. They've shown no inclination to play hardball with the AAC on this, and ESPN eventually get what they want. Obviously UCONNS' rash decision has to leave meant nothing to them or the AAC, it seems to have opened up some interesting possibilities that are setting the stage for the last piece of the CFP puzzle. BYU still doesn't have a contract. Boise state (the mwc) still doesn't have a contract and there appears to suddenly be rumblings coming out of AIRFORCE. Who actually knows what is going on behind the scenes. The only thing for sure is UCONN created their own mess and the AAC is happy for them and without them.

(10-14-2019 04:05 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  Sounds like Air Force wants out of the MW and ready to take UConn place.

Yikes two cut blocking teams in the AAC West...
Glad ECU is in the East. Saves a dozen season ending knee cap injuries

(10-14-2019 04:05 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  Sounds like Air Force wants out of the MW and ready to take UConn place.

I'll bet the AFA brass wish their FB coach would shut his mouth....

If, and it is a really big if, AFA goes to the AAC, it makes sense that Navy moves to the East.

(10-14-2019 10:08 PM)lew240z Wrote:  If, and it is a really big if, AFA goes to the AAC, it makes sense that Navy moves to the East.

No, Navy would stay in the West and Memphis would likely move to the East. That way Navy can keep playing SMU, Houston, and Tulane while freeing up an OOC slot.

(10-14-2019 09:26 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 04:05 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  Sounds like Air Force wants out of the MW and ready to take UConn place.

I'll bet the AFA brass wish their FB coach would shut his mouth....

Especially a coach who might be getting fired. Who is he to rip a league?

Zero chance UConn remains in the AAC for 2020.

(10-14-2019 07:05 PM)Tigersmoke4 Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 03:18 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  I definitely don't believe that UConn should be expecting anything at all from the AAC. It was UConn's choice to leave and, even though I believe that the school will ultimately be better off for the move, they have to deal with the consequences no matter how painful it might be scheduling-wise for the next couple of years.

On the other hand, I've been continually perplexed by the overconfidence (at least publicly) from Mike Aresco that the NCAA is going to grant the outcome that the AAC truly wants, which is essentially to change the conference championship game qualification rules entirely to allow for something less than a full conference round robin for 11 schools. Even if there is a MAC-type waiver where there are 2 divisions that are playing less than a division round robin, that waiver had always been stipulated as a temporary stopgap. The MAC was clear that they didn't want the situation to be permanent and were looking to change its membership composition. In contrast, the AAC is preemptively stating that they don't want to expand, which would effectively mean that they want whatever waiver that is granted by the NCAA to be permanent. I really don't think the NCAA is going to do that here. Even very recent history (most particularly the rebuffing of the ACC's attempt to remove any divisional requirement for conference championship games) says that the NCAA's membership is much more conservative regarding the conference championship game rules than the fans seem to be.

The upshot is that if the NCAA only grants a temporary waiver (which is the MAC precedent), then the AAC is still going to need to find a 12th football member regardless of whether Aresco and the AAC members want one or not. From that perspective, which 12th football member that the AAC could *realistically* add (e.g. BYU and Army are NOT realistic) that would add or at least maintain financial value? There might be a long list of football *teams* better than UConn out there in the MAC/C-USA/Sun Belt, but we all should know that conference realignment isn't really about on-the-field prowess. Instead, is there really a *school* better than UConn out there, even when we're just talking about a football-only membership? This is where the bridges between UConn and the AAC may not necessarily have been burned.

Look - if I were personally running either UConn or the AAC, I would want the divorce to be final. So, I'm not saying that UConn staying the AAC as a football-only member is a great idea in a vacuum. However, circumstances make strange bedfellows. The AAC can't really know how to move until it actually receives a verification from the NCAA of what the AAC is allowed to do regarding a conference championship game (and it may not be allowed to as much as it would like).

Honestly you, I and no one else has any idea why Aresco is so "confident that he'll get a waiver ". However what we do know is that outside of the AAC doubters assertions that ESPN will reduce our contract, no one has seen or heard a peep out of any outlet or credible source that ESPN is going to do just that. For all we know they could be working with the AAC behind the scenes on several different scenarios. They've shown no inclination to play hardball with the AAC on this, and ESPN eventually get what they want. Obviously UCONNS' rash decision has to leave meant nothing to them or the AAC, it seems to have opened up some interesting possibilities that are setting the stage for the last piece of the CFP puzzle. BYU still doesn't have a contract. Boise state (the mwc) still doesn't have a contract and there appears to suddenly be rumblings coming out of AIRFORCE. Who actually knows what is going on behind the scenes. The only thing for sure is UCONN created their own mess and the AAC is happy for them and without them.

Agree. I think he has almost zero chance of getting a waiver to have a divisionless CCG with an 8 game conference schedule where no team completes a round robin. That said, if he worked with the Big10, ACC, Pac12, and G5 to co-write a new rule creating a path for conferences with 11 or more members to hold a divisionless CCG while playing only 8 conference games----he might actually have a good chance of getting it passed.

(10-14-2019 09:26 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 04:05 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  Sounds like Air Force wants out of the MW and ready to take UConn place.

I'll bet the AFA brass wish their FB coach would shut his mouth....

Maybe he is speaking for them. Obviously there's been some internal shifting about AFA position about conference affiliation.

Those in-conference games will be brutal at AFA in November if it does happen.

(10-15-2019 01:44 AM)sierrajip Wrote:  Those in-conference games will be brutal at AFA in November if it does happen.

Temple, Cinn, and maybe Memphis are cold at that time of the year too. Navy might be iffy. Warm weather teams will just have to bundle up.

(10-14-2019 10:11 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 10:08 PM)lew240z Wrote:  If, and it is a really big if, AFA goes to the AAC, it makes sense that Navy moves to the East.

No, Navy would stay in the West and Memphis would likely move to the East. That way Navy can keep playing SMU, Houston, and Tulane while freeing up an OOC slot.

It will free up an OOC game for AF too. Both schools play Army annually so Navy would have 2 OOC games after the annual ND game. AF would have 3 games to schedule with their Range buddies or at least one game with an FCS school for an easy win toward bowl eligibility.

(10-15-2019 01:40 AM)Tigersmoke4 Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 09:26 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 04:05 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  Sounds like Air Force wants out of the MW and ready to take UConn place.

I'll bet the AFA brass wish their FB coach would shut his mouth....

Maybe he is speaking for them. Obviously there's been some internal shifting about AFA position about conference affiliation.

Is that obvious?

(10-15-2019 01:40 AM)Tigersmoke4 Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 09:26 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 04:05 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  Sounds like Air Force wants out of the MW and ready to take UConn place.

I'll bet the AFA brass wish their FB coach would shut his mouth....

Maybe he is speaking for them.

I suspect he is not speaking “for them”, but with their permission/encouragement. Not because AFA has decided to get out of MWC, but as a way to test the reaction among media and AFA alums/supporters, and also to send a signal to the rest of the MWC their discontent with the status quo.

(10-15-2019 06:14 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(10-15-2019 01:40 AM)Tigersmoke4 Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 09:26 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 04:05 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  Sounds like Air Force wants out of the MW and ready to take UConn place.

I'll bet the AFA brass wish their FB coach would shut his mouth....

Maybe he is speaking for them.

I suspect he is not speaking “for them”, but with their permission/encouragement. Not because AFA has decided to get out of MWC, but as a way to test the reaction among media and AFA alums/supporters, and also to send a signal to the rest of the MWC their discontent with the status quo.

If that's the case, then they really should have given him some talking points.

(10-14-2019 04:05 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  Sounds like Air Force wants out of the MW and ready to take UConn place.

What makes you say that?

(10-15-2019 06:14 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(10-15-2019 01:40 AM)Tigersmoke4 Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 09:26 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 04:05 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  Sounds like Air Force wants out of the MW and ready to take UConn place.

I'll bet the AFA brass wish their FB coach would shut his mouth....

Maybe he is speaking for them.

I suspect he is not speaking “for them”, but with their permission/encouragement. Not because AFA has decided to get out of MWC, but as a way to test the reaction among media and AFA alums/supporters, and also to send a signal to the rest of the MWC their discontent with the status quo.

Or maybe he's just miffed that he's traveling to Hawaii one week and to Navy two weeks later. If they move to the AAC, they're making 2-3 East Coast trips every year (either Army or Navy, plus 1-2 eastern division road games).

People are very likely making a lot out of very little.

(On the other hand, Air Force has to be looking at the difference in the AAC and MWC TV contracts and TV exposure. Air Force was skeered to go Big 12 with good reason--the AAC doesn't look like such a daunting group.)