(11-26-2019 12:06 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-25-2019 11:54 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-25-2019 03:00 PM)Gamecock Wrote:  

(11-25-2019 02:49 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  

Quote:Army is going to have a lot more curb appeal for a low-end bowl than any 6-6 G5 bottom feeder. And that's who they will be compared to.

Army with 2 FCS wins would need to win @Hawaii + Navy to be above any G5 bottom feeder. They're either going to be above -- or not eligible. If they beat @Hawaii or Navy, they'll be 6-7, but will be not eligible except for a "waiting list". By rule, they couldn't overtake a 6-6 Kent State. :)

This somewhat newer Army/Navy game being had during post-season time is a nightmare. They need to get rid of it. They agreed to set it up -- you pay the price.

The best I could see if Army beats @Hawaii -- is them giving a conditional bowl to Army vs bottom 6-6 team in a bowl "TBD". But I doubt even that will go Army's way.

If Army loses to finish 5-7 aren't they guaranteed to be below any other 5-7 team due to having two wins over FCS teams?

If they win and finish 6-7 then at least they're ahead of any 5-7 teams. After this weekend we'll know whether any of those will be needed.

I don't see how the Army/Navy game impacts anything unless we end up exactly one team short of filling all spots.

If Army beats Hawaii they will be 6-6 overall but not bowl eligible as two wins are versus FCS.

But they also still have the Navy game and if they win that, then they would be 7-6 and fully bowl eligible, not in the APR waiting line.

Now Army has no guaranteed bowl ties, so they need for some bowl to have an open slot. But if a bowl has an open slot Army would be in the running to fill it along with any other eligible floaters.

the problem for Army like I mentioned earlier is that said bowl probably would have to be after Christmas. That knocks out 10 of the bowl games. Another 6 bowls are the NY6 so that's gone. Several others are just no chance(Cap One, Outback, Gator, etc.). It's going to be far tougher than you think for Army.

I've never said it was going to be easy, it is never easy for a "floater" that has no specific bowl tie. But I also don't think playing Navy knocks out all bowls before Christmas. Not necessarily. Things can get done.

I do stand by my original claim that IF Army is fully eligible, meaning they beat Hawaii and Navy, then they will go to a bowl game.

We shall see.

(11-26-2019 10:13 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-26-2019 12:06 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-25-2019 11:54 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-25-2019 03:00 PM)Gamecock Wrote:  

(11-25-2019 02:49 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  Army with 2 FCS wins would need to win @Hawaii + Navy to be above any G5 bottom feeder. They're either going to be above -- or not eligible. If they beat @Hawaii or Navy, they'll be 6-7, but will be not eligible except for a "waiting list". By rule, they couldn't overtake a 6-6 Kent State. :)

This somewhat newer Army/Navy game being had during post-season time is a nightmare. They need to get rid of it. They agreed to set it up -- you pay the price.

The best I could see if Army beats @Hawaii -- is them giving a conditional bowl to Army vs bottom 6-6 team in a bowl "TBD". But I doubt even that will go Army's way.

If Army loses to finish 5-7 aren't they guaranteed to be below any other 5-7 team due to having two wins over FCS teams?

If they win and finish 6-7 then at least they're ahead of any 5-7 teams. After this weekend we'll know whether any of those will be needed.

I don't see how the Army/Navy game impacts anything unless we end up exactly one team short of filling all spots.

If Army beats Hawaii they will be 6-6 overall but not bowl eligible as two wins are versus FCS.

But they also still have the Navy game and if they win that, then they would be 7-6 and fully bowl eligible, not in the APR waiting line.

Now Army has no guaranteed bowl ties, so they need for some bowl to have an open slot. But if a bowl has an open slot Army would be in the running to fill it along with any other eligible floaters.

the problem for Army like I mentioned earlier is that said bowl probably would have to be after Christmas. That knocks out 10 of the bowl games. Another 6 bowls are the NY6 so that's gone. Several others are just no chance(Cap One, Outback, Gator, etc.). It's going to be far tougher than you think for Army.

I've never said it was going to be easy, it is never easy for a "floater" that has no specific bowl tie. But I also don't think playing Navy knocks out all bowls before Christmas. Not necessarily. Things can get done.

I do stand by my original claim that IF Army is fully eligible, meaning they beat Hawaii and Navy, then they will go to a bowl game.

We shall see.

It totally does knock out all bowls before Christmas. No bowl is going to wait until Dec 14 to set their matchup knowing their game is Dec 20 or 21. Just not going to happen....

(11-25-2019 07:13 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(11-25-2019 03:00 PM)Gamecock Wrote:  If Army loses to finish 5-7 aren't they guaranteed to be below any other 5-7 team due to having two wins over FCS teams?

No, because that 5-7 would only include one of the FCS teams ... they would be 6-7 if the second FCS win counted.

2-0, 6-6 (+one non-counter), eligible (but determined late)
1-1, 5-7 (+one non-counter), alternate (APR list)

It's rather that if any of Boston College, Ohio University, Nebraska and/or Kent State lose this week, they are from two to thirteen points behind in the APR.

This is the current rule:

Quote: (a) An institution that would have met the exception in Bylaw 18.7.2.1.1 but for the fact that one victory was against a Football Championship Subdivision opponent that had not averaged 90 percent of the permissible maximum number of grants-in-aid per year in football during a rolling two-year period and the institution's waiver request, per Bylaw 18.7.2.1.1.1, was denied.

Not applicable, the issue isn't that their one FCS game isn't a counting school, the issue is that a second FCS game doesn't count.

Quote: (b) An institution that participated in 13 regular-season contests and finished the season with a record of six wins that count toward meeting the definition of a "deserving team" and seven losses.

Again, it would be 6-6 or 5-7, not 6-7, the second FCS game doesn't count.

Quote: [c] An institution that is in its final year of reclassification from the Football Championship Subdivision to the Football Bowl Subdivision and meets the definition of a "deserving team" pursuant to Bylaw 18.7.2.1 or the exception in Bylaw 18.7.2.1.1.

Not applicable.

Quote: (d) An institution that finished its season with a minimum of five wins that count toward meeting the definition of a "deserving team" and a maximum of seven losses but achieved a multiyear Academic Progress Rate that permits postseason participation. Alternates identified pursuant to this condition shall be identified as eligible in descending order based on the institutions' multiyear Academic Progress Rates.

At 5-7 (plus one non-counter), this is what would apply.

Thanks. I had mistakenly assumed that 6-7 with 2 FCS wins was better than 5-7.

Ohio up 24-3 on Akron in the 2nd qtr. They’ll be 6-6.

(11-26-2019 07:23 PM)DoubleRSU Wrote:  Ohio up 24-3 on Akron in the 2nd qtr. They’ll be 6-6.

that is/was the safest best of all the 6-6 teams...

(11-26-2019 07:34 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-26-2019 07:23 PM)DoubleRSU Wrote:  Ohio up 24-3 on Akron in the 2nd qtr. They’ll be 6-6.

that is/was the safest best of all the 6-6 teams...

So that makes two MAC orphans looking for a bowl?

(11-26-2019 07:49 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-26-2019 07:34 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-26-2019 07:23 PM)DoubleRSU Wrote:  Ohio up 24-3 on Akron in the 2nd qtr. They’ll be 6-6.

that is/was the safest best of all the 6-6 teams...

So that makes two MAC orphans looking for a bowl?

think so. MAC with Missouri decision should be safe now.... Think we're going to wind up with 78 on the dot.....

(11-26-2019 07:49 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-26-2019 07:34 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-26-2019 07:23 PM)DoubleRSU Wrote:  Ohio up 24-3 on Akron in the 2nd qtr. They’ll be 6-6.

that is/was the safest best of all the 6-6 teams...

So that makes two MAC orphans looking for a bowl?

Yep. And two from the MWC and three from C-USA. Which will be interesting if we wind up right on the number of bowl eligible schools. Because it's likely that no G5 conference (with the possible exception of the AAC) will have any openings to spare. So will somebody get to play a P5 or are there enough P5-G5 tie-ins so the P5 can maneuver to avoid having that happen?

(11-26-2019 07:57 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(11-26-2019 07:49 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-26-2019 07:34 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-26-2019 07:23 PM)DoubleRSU Wrote:  Ohio up 24-3 on Akron in the 2nd qtr. They’ll be 6-6.

that is/was the safest best of all the 6-6 teams...

So that makes two MAC orphans looking for a bowl?

Yep. And two from the MWC and three from C-USA. Which will be interesting if we wind up right on the number of bowl eligible schools. Because it's likely that no G5 conference (with the possible exception of the AAC) will have any openings to spare. So will somebody get to play a P5 or are there enough P5-G5 tie-ins so the P5 can maneuver to avoid having that happen?

If the AAC gets the NY6 slot, then it will fail to fill one of its bowls.

You could end up with two G5 playing in what is supposed to be a P5 bowl. E.g. we could see a CUSA vs MAC independence bowl instead of SEC vs ACC.

The SEC will surely not be in the Indy, with the ACC it is hard to tell because its selection process is Byzantine, depending not just on the CFP but also the Orange Bowl and Citrus Bowl.

(11-26-2019 09:09 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-26-2019 07:57 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(11-26-2019 07:49 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-26-2019 07:34 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-26-2019 07:23 PM)DoubleRSU Wrote:  Ohio up 24-3 on Akron in the 2nd qtr. They’ll be 6-6.

that is/was the safest best of all the 6-6 teams...

So that makes two MAC orphans looking for a bowl?

Yep. And two from the MWC and three from C-USA. Which will be interesting if we wind up right on the number of bowl eligible schools. Because it's likely that no G5 conference (with the possible exception of the AAC) will have any openings to spare. So will somebody get to play a P5 or are there enough P5-G5 tie-ins so the P5 can maneuver to avoid having that happen?

If the AAC gets the NY6 slot, then it will fail to fill one of its bowls.

You could end up with two G5 playing in what is supposed to be a P5 bowl. E.g. we could see a CUSA vs MAC independence bowl instead of SEC vs ACC.

The SEC will surely not be in the Indy, with the ACC it is hard to tell because its selection process is Byzantine, depending not just on the CFP but also the Orange Bowl and Citrus Bowl.

Whatever the selection process, it would take something crazy for CUSA to miss out on the Independence Bowl. It’s the one conference out of four with a tie in who is guaranteed to have a team or three available.

(11-26-2019 09:09 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-26-2019 07:57 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(11-26-2019 07:49 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-26-2019 07:34 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-26-2019 07:23 PM)DoubleRSU Wrote:  Ohio up 24-3 on Akron in the 2nd qtr. They’ll be 6-6.

that is/was the safest best of all the 6-6 teams...

So that makes two MAC orphans looking for a bowl?

Yep. And two from the MWC and three from C-USA. Which will be interesting if we wind up right on the number of bowl eligible schools. Because it's likely that no G5 conference (with the possible exception of the AAC) will have any openings to spare. So will somebody get to play a P5 or are there enough P5-G5 tie-ins so the P5 can maneuver to avoid having that happen?

If the AAC gets the NY6 slot, then it will fail to fill one of its bowls.

You could end up with two G5 playing in what is supposed to be a P5 bowl. E.g. we could see a CUSA vs MAC independence bowl instead of SEC vs ACC.

The SEC will surely not be in the Indy, with the ACC it is hard to tell because its selection process is Byzantine, depending not just on the CFP but also the Orange Bowl and Citrus Bowl.

It is interesting the Big Ten might get the Orange which would push Notre Dame then to the Citrus Bowl...

(11-26-2019 09:31 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-26-2019 09:09 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-26-2019 07:57 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(11-26-2019 07:49 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-26-2019 07:34 PM)stever20 Wrote:  that is/was the safest best of all the 6-6 teams...

So that makes two MAC orphans looking for a bowl?

Yep. And two from the MWC and three from C-USA. Which will be interesting if we wind up right on the number of bowl eligible schools. Because it's likely that no G5 conference (with the possible exception of the AAC) will have any openings to spare. So will somebody get to play a P5 or are there enough P5-G5 tie-ins so the P5 can maneuver to avoid having that happen?

If the AAC gets the NY6 slot, then it will fail to fill one of its bowls.

You could end up with two G5 playing in what is supposed to be a P5 bowl. E.g. we could see a CUSA vs MAC independence bowl instead of SEC vs ACC.

The SEC will surely not be in the Indy, with the ACC it is hard to tell because its selection process is Byzantine, depending not just on the CFP but also the Orange Bowl and Citrus Bowl.

It is interesting the Big Ten might get the Orange which would push Notre Dame then to the Citrus Bowl...

Yes, a lot of crazy things can still happen.

I mean, just wait until Michigan beats Ohio State and Texas AM beats LSU this week, which i am predicting. That will shake things up, lol.

(11-26-2019 07:49 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-26-2019 07:34 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-26-2019 07:23 PM)DoubleRSU Wrote:  Ohio up 24-3 on Akron in the 2nd qtr. They’ll be 6-6.

that is/was the safest best of all the 6-6 teams...

So that makes two MAC orphans looking for a bowl?

Something like that to date ... could be three if Kent State win (though EMU are favored).

5 bowl spots left but I only see 3 winners of those eligible to qualify without APR: Michigan St (over Maryland), TCU (over West Virginia), and Mississippi St (over Mississippi). I’m sure there will be surprises and those could even be wrong but is anyone confident about anyone else?

(11-27-2019 08:00 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  5 bowl spots left but I only see 3 winners of those eligible to qualify without APR: Michigan St (over Maryland), TCU (over West Virginia), and Mississippi St (over Mississippi). I’m sure there will be surprises and those could even be wrong but is anyone confident about anyone else?

I wouldn't be confident, as such ...

... but 5-6 UNC is playing 4-7 NC State with the line -9 to UNC at the moment (Go Wolfpack!).

Also 6-5 Liberty, but with two FCS wins so 5-5 against counters, is hosting 2-9 NMSU, whom they beat in Las Cruces earlier in the year, and the line is -14 to Liberty at the moment (Go Aggies!).

But while each may be favored, the odds that all five win is probably not big ... it's rather the odds that four out of those five win, and one of the longer odds schools (such as Kent State, to take a random example) pull off the upset.

(11-27-2019 08:45 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(11-27-2019 08:00 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  5 bowl spots left but I only see 3 winners of those eligible to qualify without APR: Michigan St (over Maryland), TCU (over West Virginia), and Mississippi St (over Mississippi). I’m sure there will be surprises and those could even be wrong but is anyone confident about anyone else?

I wouldn't be confident, as such ...

... but 5-6 UNC is playing 4-7 NC State with the line -9 to UNC at the moment. Also 6-5 Liberty, but with two FCS wins so 5-5 against counters, is hosting 2-9 NMSU, whom they beat in Las Cruces earlier in the year, and the line is -14 to Liberty at the moment.

But while each may be favored, the odds that all five win is probably not big ... it's rather the odds that four out of those five win, and one of the longer odds schools (such as Kent State, to take a random example) pull off the upset.

right now there is a 33% chance that those 5 win....

(11-27-2019 08:00 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  5 bowl spots left but I only see 3 winners of those eligible to qualify without APR: Michigan St (over Maryland), TCU (over West Virginia), and Mississippi St (over Mississippi). I’m sure there will be surprises and those could even be wrong but is anyone confident about anyone else?

I think all the favorites but Mississippi State win. And there will be one upset. I will be surprised if we come up short. I don't think the APR list will be needed.

We shall see.

(11-27-2019 09:31 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  I think all the favorites but Mississippi State win. And there will be one upset. I will be surprised if we come up short. I don't think the APR list will be needed.

So much comes down to team psychology. Is the favorite looking past the underdog or not. Has the underdog checked out for the season or are they refusing to go quietly into the night?

For Liberty and NMSU, they've both got an unusual amount of film on the other, since this is a rematch, and that's one thing that makes rematches unpredictable.

(11-28-2019 12:51 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(11-27-2019 09:31 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  I think all the favorites but Mississippi State win. And there will be one upset. I will be surprised if we come up short. I don't think the APR list will be needed.

So much comes down to team psychology. Is the favorite looking past the underdog or not. Has the underdog checked out for the season or are they refusing to go quietly into the night?

For Liberty and NMSU, they've both got an unusual amount of film on the other, since this is a rematch, and that's one thing that makes rematches unpredictable.

I think for Liberty/NMSU, if this were at NMSU I'd agree. But it's not.

The game to me to watch for an upset is UNC/NC State.