RE: Predict the Score - Houston
Enquirer take:
College football 3 keys and prediction: No. 25 UC Bearcats at Houston Cougars
Fletcher Page, Cincinnati EnquirerPublished 11:35 p.m. ET Oct. 10, 2019 | Updated 7:32 a.m. ET Oct. 11, 2019
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The No. 25 Cincinnati Bearcats make their first AAC road trip of the season to Houston this weekend. The game will be broadcast on ESPN2 and kicks off at 3:30 p.m. Saturday.
UC (4-1, 1-0) enters as 7.5-point favorites following a 27-24 victory against UCF. The Cougars (2-3, 0-1) were off last week.
Here's a look at three keys to Saturday's game and a prediction:
Three keys
Continue the vibe
Cincinnati football has had a different vibe since the off week last month, a good feeling carried through domination at Marshall and a signature victory against UCF.
Desmond Ridder has had a different feel, too.
In those two wins, the redshirt sophomore quarterback has completed 66 percent of his passes and thrown six touchdowns to just one interception. That's an upgrade over what he did in the first three games when he completed 59 percent for four scores and three picks.
When Ridder is flowing along with Michael Warren and the running game, the Bearcats offense sings. Against Houston's defense, ranked 123rd of 130 FBS teams in the country for allowing 492 yards per game, look for UC to continue building on the good energy created the past three weeks.
Disruption is fun
Above everything, Cincinnati's defense aims to eliminate big plays. That was the mandate against UCF that will remain, especially against Houston's offensive scheme from the mind of coach Dana Holgorsen.
But the Bearcats didn't just minimize the usually quick-strike Knights last week by allowing only one touchdown in six red-zone trips. They also made big plays themselves, picking off three passes and recovering a fumble.
This week, UC faces one of the best red-zone offenses in the country. The Cougars have scored on 95 percent of their trips inside the 20, so UC's defensive methods of bending while not breaking could be put to the test.
There's a lot going in the Bearcats favor. They're on track for the AAC title game after the UCF win provided an early leg up in the East Division race. They're ranked for the first time this season. They're coming off the first win against a ranked opponent since Fickell took over.
It should be all good, but let's face it: Something was off with this team to start the season, including a no-show at Ohio State and two blah wins. Fickell has admitted that while saying he couldn't pinpoint exactly what wasn't right.
Another strong performance Saturday would push that weird time further in the rearview and move UC into the portion of the schedule where it will be hard to lose with the good vibes and proper mentality maintained.
Prediction
Forgive me, those of you in the wins-no-matter-what bunch (hey, I get it), but I'm let down about the absence of Houston quarterback D'Eriq King in this weekend's matchup. I'm glad he's doing what is best for him by sitting the rest of this season out to gain another year of eligibility, but I wanted to see a playmaker like that go against Cincinnati's defense, even more so after what the Bearcats did last week to UCF. Oh, well. The Cougars are coming off an off week, have won 10 of their last 11 conference home openers and are still dangerous on offense even without King. But I think this weekend is a chance for the Bearcats to stretch their legs and get up to full speed.
Cincinnati 37, Houston 21
Check my work
Oh yeah, I screwed it up major last week. I admit it. The prediction was UCF 41, Cincinnati 35, and I was way off for thinking the Knights would score that much on Marcus Freeman's defense. Page's record: 4-1.
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