scoscox
2nd String
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RE: 2019-20 KP ratings- they are live!!!!!
tough to decide who to pull for in the WS. Prolly gonna stick with the NL and the Nats
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10-20-2019 02:04 PM |
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GoldenWarrior11
Heisman
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I Root For: Marquette, BE
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RE: 2019-20 KP ratings- they are live!!!!!
Saw this from Parrish in reference to Memphis, who is 50th in KenPom - No team in the past 4 years has started 50th-or-worse at KenPom and secured a top-4 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
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10-20-2019 04:42 PM |
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stever20
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RE: 2019-20 KP ratings- they are live!!!!!
(10-20-2019 04:42 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote: Saw this from Parrish in reference to Memphis, who is 50th in KenPom - No team in the past 4 years has started 50th-or-worse at KenPom and secured a top-4 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
yeah... That 50 rating seems way too low for Memphis though...
Looking- last years #50 was Alabama.
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10-20-2019 04:47 PM |
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bill dazzle
Craft beer and urban living enthusiast
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I Root For: Vandy/Memphis/DePaul/UNC
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RE: 2019-20 KP ratings- they are live!!!!!
(10-20-2019 04:47 PM)stever20 Wrote: (10-20-2019 04:42 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote: Saw this from Parrish in reference to Memphis, who is 50th in KenPom - No team in the past 4 years has started 50th-or-worse at KenPom and secured a top-4 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
yeah... That 50 rating seems way too low for Memphis though...
Looking- last years #50 was Alabama.
As you gents might now know (are there any ladies in this house/on this board?) ... I've followed Memphis hoops since about 1970. Would be thrilling to see the Tigers go to the Elite Eight (as some are predicting), BUT five freshmen will start and be led by a second-year coach. That is not a recipe for major "Final Four-esque" success. I feel a 10-loss season is more likely than a three-loss campaign.
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10-20-2019 08:00 PM |
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scoscox
2nd String
Posts: 318
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RE: 2019-20 KP ratings- they are live!!!!!
(10-20-2019 04:42 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote: Saw this from Parrish in reference to Memphis, who is 50th in KenPom - No team in the past 4 years has started 50th-or-worse at KenPom and secured a top-4 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
last 4 years is not exactly a big sample
the reason they're so low is that KP only factors the top 30 freshmen into his rank, which would only include two of memphis' big class.
I don't think it's crazy to have them at 50. maybe a little low, but they have very little quality experience and, realistically, only wiseman and achiuwa are probably ready to deliver starting minutes at the high major level. the rest of the guys are #38, 52, 58, 106, and 115. those are probably role player level guys at best in their freshman years
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10-20-2019 10:25 PM |
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stever20
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RE: 2019-20 KP ratings- they are live!!!!!
(10-20-2019 10:25 PM)scoscox Wrote: (10-20-2019 04:42 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote: Saw this from Parrish in reference to Memphis, who is 50th in KenPom - No team in the past 4 years has started 50th-or-worse at KenPom and secured a top-4 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
last 4 years is not exactly a big sample
the reason they're so low is that KP only factors the top 30 freshmen into his rank, which would only include two of memphis' big class.
I don't think it's crazy to have them at 50. maybe a little low, but they have very little quality experience and, realistically, only wiseman and achiuwa are probably ready to deliver starting minutes at the high major level. the rest of the guys are #38, 52, 58, 106, and 115. those are probably role player level guys at best in their freshman years
yeah about the 4 years. 5th year looking Notre Dame started 68 and made it...
like their schedule. got 3 likely Q1 and 3 likely Q2 games ooc. that'll work. go 3-3 in those and win everything else and 10-3 pretty good ooc. anything better than that and watch out do like that of those 6- got 5 of them in the final 8 games of OOC play- so get a chance to get feet wet prior to the games getting really tough.
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10-21-2019 01:17 AM |
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stever20
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RE: 2019-20 KP ratings- they are live!!!!!
so looking at the Big East absolute projections- not what it mathmatically should look like but rather just binary w/l for each game
Nova 15-3
Marq 12-6
Xav 12-6
SH 12-6
PC 10-8
But 10-8
Cre 10-8
Geo 6-12
Dep 2-16
SJ 1-17
this would be by far the best case scenario for the league- 4 teams with 12+ wins- those should get really good seeds. And even the 3 10 win teams- those should be safely in the tourney and if they did well OOC- really good shape to get good seeds as well....
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10-21-2019 08:59 AM |
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MU in MKE
Bench Warmer
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RE: 2019-20 KP ratings- they are live!!!!!
(10-21-2019 08:59 AM)stever20 Wrote: so looking at the Big East absolute projections- not what it mathmatically should look like but rather just binary w/l for each game
Nova 15-3
Marq 12-6
Xav 12-6
SH 12-6
PC 10-8
But 10-8
Cre 10-8
Geo 6-12
Dep 2-16
SJ 1-17
this would be by far the best case scenario for the league- 4 teams with 12+ wins- those should get really good seeds. And even the 3 10 win teams- those should be safely in the tourney and if they did well OOC- really good shape to get good seeds as well....
Again, you put way too much stock in conference records. The selection committee does not distinguish conference play from non conference play. So yes, these wins would be great to add to the total, but by themselves are not worth much.
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10-21-2019 09:36 AM |
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stever20
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RE: 2019-20 KP ratings- they are live!!!!!
(10-21-2019 09:36 AM)MU in MKE Wrote: (10-21-2019 08:59 AM)stever20 Wrote: so looking at the Big East absolute projections- not what it mathmatically should look like but rather just binary w/l for each game
Nova 15-3
Marq 12-6
Xav 12-6
SH 12-6
PC 10-8
But 10-8
Cre 10-8
Geo 6-12
Dep 2-16
SJ 1-17
this would be by far the best case scenario for the league- 4 teams with 12+ wins- those should get really good seeds. And even the 3 10 win teams- those should be safely in the tourney and if they did well OOC- really good shape to get good seeds as well....
Again, you put way too much stock in conference records. The selection committee does not distinguish conference play from non conference play. So yes, these wins would be great to add to the total, but by themselves are not worth much.
Dude you can act like raw records don't mean much- but given how few only 18 win teams make the tourney, they do. Or how few power conference 21+ win teams miss the tourney they do.
If a Big East team finishes with 10 conference wins, and is at least 10-3 in OOC play- it's going to be close to impossible for them to miss the tourney.
You can whine all you want about records not meaning a lot- but in reality they do. In the 6 years of the Big East in it's current form- only 2 teams have won 20 games and missed the tourney- St John's in 2014, Marquette in 2016. Both didn't do much OOC at all. Marquette in 2017 was the only Big East team to not win 20 and make the tourney.
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10-21-2019 09:54 AM |
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MU in MKE
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RE: 2019-20 KP ratings- they are live!!!!!
(10-21-2019 09:54 AM)stever20 Wrote: (10-21-2019 09:36 AM)MU in MKE Wrote: (10-21-2019 08:59 AM)stever20 Wrote: so looking at the Big East absolute projections- not what it mathmatically should look like but rather just binary w/l for each game
Nova 15-3
Marq 12-6
Xav 12-6
SH 12-6
PC 10-8
But 10-8
Cre 10-8
Geo 6-12
Dep 2-16
SJ 1-17
this would be by far the best case scenario for the league- 4 teams with 12+ wins- those should get really good seeds. And even the 3 10 win teams- those should be safely in the tourney and if they did well OOC- really good shape to get good seeds as well....
Again, you put way too much stock in conference records. The selection committee does not distinguish conference play from non conference play. So yes, these wins would be great to add to the total, but by themselves are not worth much.
Dude you can act like raw records don't mean much- but given how few only 18 win teams make the tourney, they do. Or how few power conference 21+ win teams miss the tourney they do.
If a Big East team finishes with 10 conference wins, and is at least 10-3 in OOC play- it's going to be close to impossible for them to miss the tourney.
You can whine all you want about records not meaning a lot- but in reality they do. In the 6 years of the Big East in it's current form- only 2 teams have won 20 games and missed the tourney- St John's in 2014, Marquette in 2016. Both didn't do much OOC at all. Marquette in 2017 was the only Big East team to not win 20 and make the tourney.
It's not whining, it's just pointing out that conference standings by themselves don't matter. There's too many other variables in the OOC portion of the season such as SOS, w/l, etc.
There's a definite correlation between conference standings and tournament bids, but you can't act as if there's much causation in there. It's only slightly more helpful than pointing out that all BE teams to make the tournament have blue in their school logo.
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10-21-2019 01:17 PM |
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stever20
Legend
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RE: 2019-20 KP ratings- they are live!!!!!
(10-21-2019 01:17 PM)MU in MKE Wrote: (10-21-2019 09:54 AM)stever20 Wrote: (10-21-2019 09:36 AM)MU in MKE Wrote: (10-21-2019 08:59 AM)stever20 Wrote: so looking at the Big East absolute projections- not what it mathmatically should look like but rather just binary w/l for each game
Nova 15-3
Marq 12-6
Xav 12-6
SH 12-6
PC 10-8
But 10-8
Cre 10-8
Geo 6-12
Dep 2-16
SJ 1-17
this would be by far the best case scenario for the league- 4 teams with 12+ wins- those should get really good seeds. And even the 3 10 win teams- those should be safely in the tourney and if they did well OOC- really good shape to get good seeds as well....
Again, you put way too much stock in conference records. The selection committee does not distinguish conference play from non conference play. So yes, these wins would be great to add to the total, but by themselves are not worth much.
Dude you can act like raw records don't mean much- but given how few only 18 win teams make the tourney, they do. Or how few power conference 21+ win teams miss the tourney they do.
If a Big East team finishes with 10 conference wins, and is at least 10-3 in OOC play- it's going to be close to impossible for them to miss the tourney.
You can whine all you want about records not meaning a lot- but in reality they do. In the 6 years of the Big East in it's current form- only 2 teams have won 20 games and missed the tourney- St John's in 2014, Marquette in 2016. Both didn't do much OOC at all. Marquette in 2017 was the only Big East team to not win 20 and make the tourney.
It's not whining, it's just pointing out that conference standings by themselves don't matter. There's too many other variables in the OOC portion of the season such as SOS, w/l, etc.
There's a definite correlation between conference standings and tournament bids, but you can't act as if there's much causation in there. It's only slightly more helpful than pointing out that all BE teams to make the tournament have blue in their school logo.
You can act like actual win loss record doesn't matter- but all facts show that it absolutely does. You can complain that it matters too much- but I don't think you can argue in the results. If Big East team wins 20 games, they make the tourney. If Big East team doesn't win 20, they don't make the tourney. For all but 3 teams in the 6 years- that's been the case in both scenarios.
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10-21-2019 01:51 PM |
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