(10-06-2019 10:15 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-05-2019 11:55 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  AAC got another win over MWC today, to make it 3-0 over MWC

Two lucky wins - AFA had Navy beat, and Wyoming had Tulsa beat a few weeks ago. And both were long road trips for the MW teams.

But yes, they count, LOL.

Navy dominated most of the game. Got out to a not-quite-comfortable-enough lead by trading TDs for FGs.
AF didn't cross the goal line for 3 1/2 quarters.
AF had a field goal lead for about five and a half minutes of the first/second quarter, then didn't have the lead until 3:15 left. That left plenty of time for Malcolm Perry to drive the offense 75 yards.
If the result had gone the other way, it might have gone down as a lucky win for AF. This result, looking at the full sixty minutes of play, was exciting going back and fourth in the final minutes, but it wasn't lucky for Navy.

(10-06-2019 10:24 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-06-2019 06:35 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  2 weeks ago, the two conferences looked fairly even, with the AAC maybe having a very slight edge. But in the past 2 weeks:

The Mountain West has gone 1-3, with the only win coming over New Mexico State. The losses were to LSU, Navy, and Liberty.
The American has gone 7-0. All wins were over D-1A competition, including wins over Georgia Tech, Air Force, and Army.

Well, in fairness to the MW, nobody in either conference would beat LSU, Liberty beat New Mexico, who probably won't win a game in the MW, and AFA was very unlucky vs Navy.

And Georgia Tech lost to the Citadel, so not sure that is very noteworthy**.

On the other hand, Tulane is good. Upcoming AAC opponents underestimate them at their peril. Best Tulane team in the past two decades. Should be ranked, if not now then soon.







** Of course Tech still beat USF.

while yes nobody in either conference would beat LSU, I think you could say that no one in either conference would lose to New Mexico State either.

(10-06-2019 10:55 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(10-06-2019 10:15 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-05-2019 11:55 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  AAC got another win over MWC today, to make it 3-0 over MWC

Two lucky wins - AFA had Navy beat, and Wyoming had Tulsa beat a few weeks ago. And both were long road trips for the MW teams.

But yes, they count, LOL.

Navy dominated most of the game. Got out to a not-quite-comfortable-enough lead by trading TDs for FGs.
AF didn't cross the goal line for 3 1/2 quarters.
AF had a field goal lead for about five and a half minutes of the first/second quarter, then didn't have the lead until 3:15 left. That left plenty of time for Malcolm Perry to drive the offense 75 yards.
If the result had gone the other way, it might have gone down as a lucky win for AF. This result, looking at the full sixty minutes of play, was exciting going back and fourth in the final minutes, but it wasn't lucky for Navy.

AFA had an 80% chance to win with 3 minutes left. That last drive ... The flea flcker, if the AFA defender turns around he intercepts, then the long pass on 2nd and 20, Navy was dead and the AFA defender had the receiver covered and overran the poor pass, Navy completes that one time in 20 and they absolutely needed it, then the 4th and 1 conversion, just barely.

Navy was fortunate to win at home, no shame in the result for AFA. It was a very exciting game, wish I had been there, love seeing games at Annapolis.

(10-06-2019 11:10 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-06-2019 10:55 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(10-06-2019 10:15 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-05-2019 11:55 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  AAC got another win over MWC today, to make it 3-0 over MWC

Two lucky wins - AFA had Navy beat, and Wyoming had Tulsa beat a few weeks ago. And both were long road trips for the MW teams.

But yes, they count, LOL.

Navy dominated most of the game. Got out to a not-quite-comfortable-enough lead by trading TDs for FGs.
AF didn't cross the goal line for 3 1/2 quarters.
AF had a field goal lead for about five and a half minutes of the first/second quarter, then didn't have the lead until 3:15 left. That left plenty of time for Malcolm Perry to drive the offense 75 yards.
If the result had gone the other way, it might have gone down as a lucky win for AF. This result, looking at the full sixty minutes of play, was exciting going back and fourth in the final minutes, but it wasn't lucky for Navy.

AFA had an 80% chance to win with 3 minutes left. That last drive ... The flea flcker, if the AFA defender turns around he intercepts, then the long pass on 2nd and 20, Navy was dead and the AFA defender had the receiver covered and overran the poor pass, Navy completes that one time in 20 and they absolutely needed it, then the 4th and 1 conversion, just barely.

Navy was fortunate to win at home, no shame in the result for AFA. It was a very exciting game, wish I had been there, love seeing games at Annapolis.

I assume you're looking at ESPN's "win probability" tracker? So you can see that AF only got back on the plus side at about 6 minutes left...if you like the "win probability" I don't see how a team can have "win probability in its favor for the second and third quarters, and over half of the fourth quarter and be "lucky" to win.

(10-06-2019 11:20 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(10-06-2019 11:10 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-06-2019 10:55 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(10-06-2019 10:15 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-05-2019 11:55 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  AAC got another win over MWC today, to make it 3-0 over MWC

Two lucky wins - AFA had Navy beat, and Wyoming had Tulsa beat a few weeks ago. And both were long road trips for the MW teams.

But yes, they count, LOL.

Navy dominated most of the game. Got out to a not-quite-comfortable-enough lead by trading TDs for FGs.
AF didn't cross the goal line for 3 1/2 quarters.
AF had a field goal lead for about five and a half minutes of the first/second quarter, then didn't have the lead until 3:15 left. That left plenty of time for Malcolm Perry to drive the offense 75 yards.
If the result had gone the other way, it might have gone down as a lucky win for AF. This result, looking at the full sixty minutes of play, was exciting going back and fourth in the final minutes, but it wasn't lucky for Navy.

AFA had an 80% chance to win with 3 minutes left. That last drive ... The flea flcker, if the AFA defender turns around he intercepts, then the long pass on 2nd and 20, Navy was dead and the AFA defender had the receiver covered and overran the poor pass, Navy completes that one time in 20 and they absolutely needed it, then the 4th and 1 conversion, just barely.

Navy was fortunate to win at home, no shame in the result for AFA. It was a very exciting game, wish I had been there, love seeing games at Annapolis.

I assume you're looking at ESPN's "win probability" tracker? So you can see that AF only got back on the plus side at about 6 minutes left...if you like the "win probability" I don't see how a team can have "win probability in its favor for the second and third quarters, and over half of the fourth quarter and be "lucky" to win.

Quite fortunate to win. That last drive, everything had to go right *throwing the ball*, and it did. Two throw it up for grabs converted, a 4th and 1 converted.

That last drive had about a 1/20 chance of being successful. It happened, it happens. Good for Navy. Take the lucky win and move on to Temple or whoever is next.

(10-06-2019 11:10 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-06-2019 10:55 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(10-06-2019 10:15 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-05-2019 11:55 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  AAC got another win over MWC today, to make it 3-0 over MWC

Two lucky wins - AFA had Navy beat, and Wyoming had Tulsa beat a few weeks ago. And both were long road trips for the MW teams.

But yes, they count, LOL.

Navy dominated most of the game. Got out to a not-quite-comfortable-enough lead by trading TDs for FGs.
AF didn't cross the goal line for 3 1/2 quarters.
AF had a field goal lead for about five and a half minutes of the first/second quarter, then didn't have the lead until 3:15 left. That left plenty of time for Malcolm Perry to drive the offense 75 yards.
If the result had gone the other way, it might have gone down as a lucky win for AF. This result, looking at the full sixty minutes of play, was exciting going back and fourth in the final minutes, but it wasn't lucky for Navy.

AFA had an 80% chance to win with 3 minutes left. That last drive ... The flea flcker, if the AFA defender turns around he intercepts, then the long pass on 2nd and 20, Navy was dead and the AFA defender had the receiver covered and overran the poor pass, Navy completes that one time in 20 and they absolutely needed it, then the 4th and 1 conversion, just barely.

Navy was fortunate to win at home, no shame in the result for AFA. It was a very exciting game, wish I had been there, love seeing games at Annapolis.

That is like saying UCF had a great win probability against Pitt with 90 seconds left, bottom line is we lost.

By most metrics, the American has clearly separated itself from the Mountain West the past two week of play. In contrast, after the first two weeks of the season, I felt the MWC would be the better of the two leagues by year's end. Now I'm not so sure. Could go either way but the AAC has the advantage currently to be better once the season concludes — notwithstanding the fact that Boise will likely (and deservedly) be the NY6 rep from the G5.

Full disclosure: I root for two AAC teams and no MWC teams, so my bias might be a factor in my feeling the former is stronger than the latter at this stage.

(10-06-2019 12:14 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(10-06-2019 11:10 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-06-2019 10:55 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(10-06-2019 10:15 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-05-2019 11:55 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  AAC got another win over MWC today, to make it 3-0 over MWC

Two lucky wins - AFA had Navy beat, and Wyoming had Tulsa beat a few weeks ago. And both were long road trips for the MW teams.

But yes, they count, LOL.

Navy dominated most of the game. Got out to a not-quite-comfortable-enough lead by trading TDs for FGs.
AF didn't cross the goal line for 3 1/2 quarters.
AF had a field goal lead for about five and a half minutes of the first/second quarter, then didn't have the lead until 3:15 left. That left plenty of time for Malcolm Perry to drive the offense 75 yards.
If the result had gone the other way, it might have gone down as a lucky win for AF. This result, looking at the full sixty minutes of play, was exciting going back and fourth in the final minutes, but it wasn't lucky for Navy.

AFA had an 80% chance to win with 3 minutes left. That last drive ... The flea flcker, if the AFA defender turns around he intercepts, then the long pass on 2nd and 20, Navy was dead and the AFA defender had the receiver covered and overran the poor pass, Navy completes that one time in 20 and they absolutely needed it, then the 4th and 1 conversion, just barely.

Navy was fortunate to win at home, no shame in the result for AFA. It was a very exciting game, wish I had been there, love seeing games at Annapolis.

That is like saying UCF had a great win probability against Pitt with 90 seconds left, bottom line is we lost.

Nope, Navy was lucky to win, Pitt was lucky to win.
quo vadis has spoken!!!

(10-06-2019 11:10 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-06-2019 10:55 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(10-06-2019 10:15 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-05-2019 11:55 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  AAC got another win over MWC today, to make it 3-0 over MWC

Two lucky wins - AFA had Navy beat, and Wyoming had Tulsa beat a few weeks ago. And both were long road trips for the MW teams.

But yes, they count, LOL.

Navy dominated most of the game. Got out to a not-quite-comfortable-enough lead by trading TDs for FGs.
AF didn't cross the goal line for 3 1/2 quarters.
AF had a field goal lead for about five and a half minutes of the first/second quarter, then didn't have the lead until 3:15 left. That left plenty of time for Malcolm Perry to drive the offense 75 yards.
If the result had gone the other way, it might have gone down as a lucky win for AF. This result, looking at the full sixty minutes of play, was exciting going back and fourth in the final minutes, but it wasn't lucky for Navy.

AFA had an 80% chance to win with 3 minutes left. That last drive ... The flea flcker, if the AFA defender turns around he intercepts, then the long pass on 2nd and 20, Navy was dead and the AFA defender had the receiver covered and overran the poor pass, Navy completes that one time in 20 and they absolutely needed it, then the 4th and 1 conversion, just barely.

Navy was fortunate to win at home, no shame in the result for AFA. It was a very exciting game, wish I had been there, love seeing games at Annapolis.

USF visits the 19th. All my Class of '91 tailgate hospitality on offer if you're perchance coming up.

The American is now 31-13 nonconference.

30-11 if you don't count UConn.

In particular, the American West is 17-5 with four losses to teams who were ranked at the time (including two Top 10), and one more loss to a team that became ranked after the game.

That vs G5 record for the AAC really says they’ve separated themselves from the rest of the pack.

(10-06-2019 06:16 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(10-06-2019 11:10 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-06-2019 10:55 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(10-06-2019 10:15 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-05-2019 11:55 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  AAC got another win over MWC today, to make it 3-0 over MWC

Two lucky wins - AFA had Navy beat, and Wyoming had Tulsa beat a few weeks ago. And both were long road trips for the MW teams.

But yes, they count, LOL.

Navy dominated most of the game. Got out to a not-quite-comfortable-enough lead by trading TDs for FGs.
AF didn't cross the goal line for 3 1/2 quarters.
AF had a field goal lead for about five and a half minutes of the first/second quarter, then didn't have the lead until 3:15 left. That left plenty of time for Malcolm Perry to drive the offense 75 yards.
If the result had gone the other way, it might have gone down as a lucky win for AF. This result, looking at the full sixty minutes of play, was exciting going back and fourth in the final minutes, but it wasn't lucky for Navy.

AFA had an 80% chance to win with 3 minutes left. That last drive ... The flea flcker, if the AFA defender turns around he intercepts, then the long pass on 2nd and 20, Navy was dead and the AFA defender had the receiver covered and overran the poor pass, Navy completes that one time in 20 and they absolutely needed it, then the 4th and 1 conversion, just barely.

Navy was fortunate to win at home, no shame in the result for AFA. It was a very exciting game, wish I had been there, love seeing games at Annapolis.

USF visits the 19th. All my Class of '91 tailgate hospitality on offer if you're perchance coming up.

I cannot get up there until Christmas, already have my Military Bowl tickets, but hope you and your class have a great time.

And take it easy on my Bulls.

(10-06-2019 07:36 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  That vs G5 record for the AAC really says they’ve separated themselves from the rest of the pack.

The improvement in recruiting is starting to take hold.

I also think the AAC is beginning to develop the impression that any of the teams (minus UConn) have a chance to win the league championship. This is something that definitely isn't the case for lower end schools in the SEC, Big 10, and ACC. So we are seeing solid 3/4 star recruits decide they want to compete at a school like Cincinnati, over being foder at a program like Purdue.

(10-07-2019 09:05 AM)Billy Bob Bearcat Wrote:  

(10-06-2019 07:36 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  That vs G5 record for the AAC really says they’ve separated themselves from the rest of the pack.

The improvement in recruiting is starting to take hold.

I also think the AAC is beginning to develop the impression that any of the teams (minus UConn) have a chance to win the league championship. This is something that definitely isn't the case for lower end schools in the SEC, Big 10, and ACC. So we are seeing solid 3/4 star recruits decide they want to compete at a school like Cincinnati, over being foder at a program like Purdue.

I think a big part of the equation for the AAC is media exposure. AAC is able to recruit at a higher level across the board because of the number of games on one of the ESPN networks throughout the weekend and occasionally on ABC. A second point, the AAC has been able to attract some good up and coming coaches because they know a good run at one of these schools can result in a big pay day down the line.

I talk to a lot of folks regarding college athletics — people who do not root for AAC teams. Overall, they are quite complimentary of the league and how it continues to build and progress in a positive manner.

(10-06-2019 01:11 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  By most metrics, the American has clearly separated itself from the Mountain West the past two week of play. In contrast, after the first two weeks of the season, I felt the MWC would be the better of the two leagues by year's end. Now I'm not so sure. Could go either way but the AAC has the advantage currently to be better once the season concludes — notwithstanding the fact that Boise will likely (and deservedly) be the NY6 rep from the G5.

Full disclosure: I root for two AAC teams and no MWC teams, so my bias might be a factor in my feeling the former is stronger than the latter at this stage.

The AAC clearly as moved ahead of the MW the past couple of weeks. Maybe the AAC teams had the right idea in scheduling a lot of OOC games out in to weeks 4 and 5, when opponents might be more focused on conference games? Most P5 conferences dramatically reduce OOC games after week 3 or so.

One thing about the CFP "best G5" conference determination is that unlike all other similar determinations (e.g., NY6 participant, CFP participants) it is determined after the bowl games. So we won't know for sure who is #1 until the very end of the campaign.

(10-07-2019 09:11 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(10-07-2019 09:05 AM)Billy Bob Bearcat Wrote:  

(10-06-2019 07:36 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  That vs G5 record for the AAC really says they’ve separated themselves from the rest of the pack.

The improvement in recruiting is starting to take hold.

I also think the AAC is beginning to develop the impression that any of the teams (minus UConn) have a chance to win the league championship. This is something that definitely isn't the case for lower end schools in the SEC, Big 10, and ACC. So we are seeing solid 3/4 star recruits decide they want to compete at a school like Cincinnati, over being foder at a program like Purdue.

I think a big part of the equation for the AAC is media exposure. AAC is able to recruit at a higher level across the board because of the number of games on one of the ESPN networks throughout the weekend and occasionally on ABC. A second point, the AAC has been able to attract some good up and coming coaches because they know a good run at one of these schools can result in a big pay day down the line.

Are the recruiting services saying that? I don't recall there being much difference.

(10-06-2019 07:33 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  The American is now 31-13 nonconference.

30-11 if you don't count UConn.

In particular, the American West is 17-5 with four losses to teams who were ranked at the time (including two Top 10), and one more loss to a team that became ranked after the game.

But, are we supposed to count ECU's wins over ODU, Gardner Webb, and William and Mary? That's who ECU won three OOC games against.

The AAC had a bifurcated OOC campaign. Some schools played extremely tough P5 - Oklahoma, Ohio State, Auburn, and Wisconsin come to mind. On the other, the non-P5 schedule had a lot of cream filling in it. One week, the AAC wins were over Texas State, Missouri State, Miami of Ohio, and South Alabama. They've also won at least three games against FCS - HBCUs.

(10-07-2019 09:40 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-07-2019 09:11 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(10-07-2019 09:05 AM)Billy Bob Bearcat Wrote:  

(10-06-2019 07:36 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  That vs G5 record for the AAC really says they’ve separated themselves from the rest of the pack.

The improvement in recruiting is starting to take hold.

I also think the AAC is beginning to develop the impression that any of the teams (minus UConn) have a chance to win the league championship. This is something that definitely isn't the case for lower end schools in the SEC, Big 10, and ACC. So we are seeing solid 3/4 star recruits decide they want to compete at a school like Cincinnati, over being foder at a program like Purdue.

I think a big part of the equation for the AAC is media exposure. AAC is able to recruit at a higher level across the board because of the number of games on one of the ESPN networks throughout the weekend and occasionally on ABC. A second point, the AAC has been able to attract some good up and coming coaches because they know a good run at one of these schools can result in a big pay day down the line.

Are the recruiting services saying that? I don't recall there being much difference.

Per 247 (for the 2020 class as an example):

AAC
#47 Tulane
#48 Cincinnati
#49 Memphis
#53 East Carolina
#57 UCF
#58 USF
#67 Temple

MWC
(highest ranked) #84 AFA

(10-07-2019 09:52 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(10-07-2019 09:40 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-07-2019 09:11 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(10-07-2019 09:05 AM)Billy Bob Bearcat Wrote:  

(10-06-2019 07:36 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  That vs G5 record for the AAC really says they’ve separated themselves from the rest of the pack.

The improvement in recruiting is starting to take hold.

I also think the AAC is beginning to develop the impression that any of the teams (minus UConn) have a chance to win the league championship. This is something that definitely isn't the case for lower end schools in the SEC, Big 10, and ACC. So we are seeing solid 3/4 star recruits decide they want to compete at a school like Cincinnati, over being foder at a program like Purdue.

I think a big part of the equation for the AAC is media exposure. AAC is able to recruit at a higher level across the board because of the number of games on one of the ESPN networks throughout the weekend and occasionally on ABC. A second point, the AAC has been able to attract some good up and coming coaches because they know a good run at one of these schools can result in a big pay day down the line.

Are the recruiting services saying that? I don't recall there being much difference.

Per 247 (for the 2020 class as an example):

AAC
#47 Tulane
#48 Cincinnati
#49 Memphis
#53 East Carolina
#57 UCF
#58 USF
#67 Temple

MWC
(highest ranked) #84 AFA

The academies are sometimes really weird on recruiting rankings. Every student is tuition-free, so there are no scholarship limits. And I think (could be wrong) that every student has to participate in an athletic activity of some sort.

Last year Air Force had 50 commits.