Heading down to NC for a second FBS game, but this one will be a lot closer. Our team seems to be finding its identity and the offense is starting to click. ECU seems to be headed in the wrong direction, and some of the comments by their fans on their message board are pretty entertaining. I think this one is close, and if a few things go our way could be an upset in the making. They are 1-2 with a lone win against Gardener-Webb and blowout losses to NC State and Navy. ESPN predictor gives us almost a 20% chance to win the game.

Massey gives us a slightly higher probability of 24% to win and a predicted score of 21- 31. That's a high hill rather than a mountain to climb. GO TRIBE!

A win and we're on a realistic path to win 8+ games and earn a playoff berth.

Key is to protect the ball and continue to cause turnovers.

Hope to have Wimmer and Herdman back.

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Just to round out the predictions, Sagarin gives us a 28% chance of winning, but his Eigenvector model gives us a 66% chance of winning (which is kinda crazy)

ECU had the week off. Always hard to know whether that will be a good thing or a bad thing this early in the season. They may really be zoned in and exploit our weaknesses, or come out slow and a little rusty. Hopefully, we grew alot from the UVA experience. Go Tribe!

(09-16-2019 11:05 AM)Tribeheart Wrote:  ECU had the week off. Always hard to know whether that will be a good thing or a bad thing this early in the season. They may really be zoned in and exploit our weaknesses, or come out slow and a little rusty. Hopefully, we grew alot from the UVA experience. Go Tribe!

ECU played at Navy on Saturday.

Bill Connelly at ESPN has ECU as the 116th best team in FBS in his SP+ rankings. He's started doing FCS teams this year and W&M is 54th. It's early so the numbers aren't super reliable but ECU is a really bad P5 team while W&M is a fairly average FCS team.

Also according to Bill Connelly- W&M's at 73 plays/game, 33rd in 1-AA. That's not entirely down to a change in tempo in the offense but it is an indicator of faster play. He doesn't have more detailed stuff and I don't have time to do anything deeper at the moment.

ECU has not looked good. W&M, on the other hand, seems to be gaining momentum. As hktribefan said, our team seems to be finding its identity. I predict a Tribe win! The only thing that worries me, as it does during all tight games at FBS opponents, is that the refs will start doing some serious home cooking to protect ECU (and we couldn't even argue the point since our team is already prone to penalties as it is). (Yeah, yeah, Rocco, I know ...........).

(09-16-2019 11:15 AM)Rocco Wrote:  Bill Connelly at ESPN has ECU as the 116th best team in FBS in his SP+ rankings. He's started doing FCS teams this year and W&M is 54th. It's early so the numbers aren't super reliable but ECU is a really bad P5 team while W&M is a fairly average FCS team.

Massey Composite has W&M #30 in FCS, and Sagarin has us #36.

(09-16-2019 11:22 AM)Rocco Wrote:  Also according to Bill Connelly- W&M's at 73 plays/game, 33rd in 1-AA. That's not entirely down to a change in tempo in the offense but it is an indicator of faster play. He doesn't have more detailed stuff and I don't have time to do anything deeper at the moment.

If you watched you saw faster tempo. W&M ran 66 plays with 26:42 possession time. 4th quarter saw us letting play clock run down. First TD drive was 10 plays in 2:58. Last TD drive was 10 plays in 5:07.

(09-16-2019 11:11 AM)Tribe4SF Wrote:  

(09-16-2019 11:05 AM)Tribeheart Wrote:  ECU had the week off. Always hard to know whether that will be a good thing or a bad thing this early in the season. They may really be zoned in and exploit our weaknesses, or come out slow and a little rusty. Hopefully, we grew alot from the UVA experience. Go Tribe!

ECU played at Navy on Saturday.

Guess I had the week off. Or, maybe it's been the year off. Had a little drink about an hour ago and it went straight to my head. Show me the way to go home....

I feel like, based on FCS play, we are in a very good (perhaps surprisingly so) position this season. You can call me conservative, but I really just hope for no injuries this game. If we can get away with that I'm bullish on the rest of the season.

Being an optimist , I'd put our chances for an upset of ECU @ 1 in 3. GO TRIBE!!!

(09-16-2019 12:48 PM)Tribeheart Wrote:  

(09-16-2019 11:11 AM)Tribe4SF Wrote:  

(09-16-2019 11:05 AM)Tribeheart Wrote:  ECU had the week off. Always hard to know whether that will be a good thing or a bad thing this early in the season. They may really be zoned in and exploit our weaknesses, or come out slow and a little rusty. Hopefully, we grew alot from the UVA experience. Go Tribe!

ECU played at Navy on Saturday.

Guess I had the week off. Or, maybe it's been the year off. Had a little drink about an hour ago and it went straight to my head. Show me the way to go home....

Jaws

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(09-16-2019 12:14 PM)Tribe4SF Wrote:  

(09-16-2019 11:22 AM)Rocco Wrote:  Also according to Bill Connelly- W&M's at 73 plays/game, 33rd in 1-AA. That's not entirely down to a change in tempo in the offense but it is an indicator of faster play. He doesn't have more detailed stuff and I don't have time to do anything deeper at the moment.

If you watched you saw faster tempo. W&M ran 66 plays with 26:42 possession time. 4th quarter saw us letting play clock run down. First TD drive was 10 plays in 2:58. Last TD drive was 10 plays in 5:07.

I did watch. I didn't watch every other game so it's nice to have numbers put in context to the rest of football.

Colgate was spent in 4Q. A number of times Colgate wasn't set on defense by the snap. That allowed our OL to move them at will.



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ECU opens as a 11.5 point favorite, per ESPN.

Game on ESPN3

(09-16-2019 03:19 PM)TribePride52 Wrote:  ECU opens as a 11.5 point favorite, per ESPN.

So ESPN thinks ECU is as good as they thought Colgate was. Compared to the Tribe.