https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2019/8/2...iator-ncaa

I'm not a fan of underdog dynasty. Their articles are rarely objective.

But I do agree in this case. ULM had a really bad turnover margin a year ago. I don't expect that to happen this year. Turnover margin is the biggest stat in college football. That's why I expect ULM to be better (as long as Evans isn't color blind when he throws the football.)

It's also why I think Ga. Southern takes a step back.

(08-29-2019 08:04 AM)BirdofParadise Wrote:  I'm not a fan of underdog dynasty. Their articles are rarely objective.

But I do agree in this case. ULM had a really bad turnover margin a year ago. I don't expect that to happen this year. Turnover margin is the biggest stat in college football. That's why I expect ULM to be better (as long as Evans isn't color blind when he throws the football.)

It's also why I think Ga. Southern takes a step back.

We fumbled 13 times and recovered 8 of them. There's a chance we regress some in terms of total turnovers, sure. It's also likely we don't gain as many turnovers, although based on SP+ last year our expected was only about -7 from our actual, so we would still be heavy on the positive side. This also wasn't a defense like stAte in 2016 where you either scored fast or gave up a turnover against them so outside of a few flukey plays, we were doing the right things to gain a lot of those turnovers.

Fumbles are basically 50/50 in terms of probablity, so we were slightly over that so regression shouldn't be too unexpected.

Meanwhile, the story no one is talking about is Louisiana fumbled 14 times and recovered 11 of them. That's way outside what you'd expect so I expect to see a bigger regression there. It's possible their INT numbers go down to compensate some, but that's still a bit of an abnormal distribution.

Man I could look at that Southern/ULM score all day

(08-29-2019 09:34 AM)FTE_rawr Wrote:  Man I could look at that Southern/ULM score all day

Weird, right?

https://www.espn.com/college-football/ga.../400944867

(08-29-2019 09:17 AM)eaglewraith Wrote:  

(08-29-2019 08:04 AM)BirdofParadise Wrote:  I'm not a fan of underdog dynasty. Their articles are rarely objective.

But I do agree in this case. ULM had a really bad turnover margin a year ago. I don't expect that to happen this year. Turnover margin is the biggest stat in college football. That's why I expect ULM to be better (as long as Evans isn't color blind when he throws the football.)

It's also why I think Ga. Southern takes a step back.

We fumbled 13 times and recovered 8 of them. There's a chance we regress some in terms of total turnovers, sure. It's also likely we don't gain as many turnovers, although based on SP+ last year our expected was only about -7 from our actual, so we would still be heavy on the positive side. This also wasn't a defense like stAte in 2016 where you either scored fast or gave up a turnover against them so outside of a few flukey plays, we were doing the right things to gain a lot of those turnovers.

Fumbles are basically 50/50 in terms of probablity, so we were slightly over that so regression shouldn't be too unexpected.

Meanwhile, the story no one is talking about is Louisiana fumbled 14 times and recovered 11 of them. That's way outside what you'd expect so I expect to see a bigger regression there. It's possible their INT numbers go down to compensate some, but that's still a bit of an abnormal distribution.

Turnover "turnaround" is overrated, IMO, at least in how it applies to this specific situation. Georgia Southern's program has been rebuilt in my opinion, similar to when Neal Brown took over. We always had great turnover margins because we had a great coach. I don't think you'll be nearly as high as you were, but it won't plummet, and I believe GS is talented enough to navigate a tough schedule.

(08-29-2019 09:54 AM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  

(08-29-2019 09:17 AM)eaglewraith Wrote:  

(08-29-2019 08:04 AM)BirdofParadise Wrote:  I'm not a fan of underdog dynasty. Their articles are rarely objective.

But I do agree in this case. ULM had a really bad turnover margin a year ago. I don't expect that to happen this year. Turnover margin is the biggest stat in college football. That's why I expect ULM to be better (as long as Evans isn't color blind when he throws the football.)

It's also why I think Ga. Southern takes a step back.

We fumbled 13 times and recovered 8 of them. There's a chance we regress some in terms of total turnovers, sure. It's also likely we don't gain as many turnovers, although based on SP+ last year our expected was only about -7 from our actual, so we would still be heavy on the positive side. This also wasn't a defense like stAte in 2016 where you either scored fast or gave up a turnover against them so outside of a few flukey plays, we were doing the right things to gain a lot of those turnovers.

Fumbles are basically 50/50 in terms of probablity, so we were slightly over that so regression shouldn't be too unexpected.

Meanwhile, the story no one is talking about is Louisiana fumbled 14 times and recovered 11 of them. That's way outside what you'd expect so I expect to see a bigger regression there. It's possible their INT numbers go down to compensate some, but that's still a bit of an abnormal distribution.

Turnover "turnaround" is overrated, IMO, at least in how it applies to this specific situation. Georgia Southern's program has been rebuilt in my opinion, similar to when Neal Brown took over. We always had great turnover margins because we had a great coach. I don't think you'll be nearly as high as you were, but it won't plummet, and I believe GS is talented enough to navigate a tough schedule.

That's pretty much the stance I have.

(08-29-2019 08:04 AM)BirdofParadise Wrote:  I'm not a fan of underdog dynasty. Their articles are rarely objective.

But I do agree in this case. ULM had a really bad turnover margin a year ago. I don't expect that to happen this year. Turnover margin is the biggest stat in college football. That's why I expect ULM to be better (as long as Evans isn't color blind when he throws the football.)

It's also why I think Ga. Southern takes a step back.

Yeah, it might be tough to have a +22 turnover margin but I don't think we need to have that high of a margin to match last years success. I wouldn't consider under a + 22 turnover margin a step back either as that is like breathing rare air my friend.

(08-29-2019 09:54 AM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  Turnover "turnaround" is overrated, IMO, at least in how it applies to this specific situation. Georgia Southern's program has been rebuilt in my opinion, similar to when Neal Brown took over. We always had great turnover margins because we had a great coach. I don't think you'll be nearly as high as you were, but it won't plummet, and I believe GS is talented enough to navigate a tough schedule.

Indeed. Check out this graph that has win percentage and turnover margin for P5 teams since 2004. The teams that win more have better turnover margins.

https://www.omaha.com/huskers/football/c...d38cc.html