(08-20-2019 01:08 PM)BobcatEngineer Wrote: Right. Russia, a hostile foreign power, had absolutely no influence on the outcome of our election...
But Google gave Hillary 16 million more votes.
I'm going to take this a different direction.
Is Russia really "a hostile foreign power"? Should they be?
I know, I know, they were clearly a hostile foreign power during the Cold War. But that ended 30 years ago, and we have never gotten over that way of thinking. Countries tend not to have long-term friends, but more likely common enemies. The US-UK relationship is one exception, and maybe the historic France-Russia alliance against Germany (which drove a lot of German militarism and gave us two world wars). But more often, alliances tend to be short-term against common enemies. Right now, our #1 enemy is probably China (which is interesting because of the trade implications). China may also be Russia's #1 enemy. If we ave the same #1 enemy, maybe we need to explore a different relationship.
While we are hunkered downing the Middle East (basically defending China's essential oil supply chain), China has used economic leverage to gain footholds all over Africa, and the Chinese are starting to do the same in South America.
For a (somewhat old) article about China's port expansion, see:
https://www.economist.com/international/...commanders
That's behind a firewall, so you may not be able to see it, but this map shows China's control of ports in 2013, and that network has expanded. These are commercial, not military, ports. But note that they are well-positioned to use as naval bases to protect China's vital oil supply lines.
![[Image: 20130608_IRM958_0.png]](https://www.economist.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/640-width/images/print-edition/20130608_IRM958_0.png)
In 1992, Ross Perot said what I had been thinking for several years, "In the post-Cold-War era, economic power will be more important than military power." And Perot was a military guy, as am I. What I see is China expanding it's sphere of influence economically, without firing a shot. And we are enabling them by defending the one thing that is essential to them.
Now, China has some severe limitations. Its economic miracle has been financed by debt to an extent that would make the 2008 housing bubble and crash look like a picnic. And without imported oil, their economy crashes and they ave mass starvation. Something like 2/3 of their oil and gas (maybe down to 1/2 with completion of a new pipeline from Siberia) comes from the Middle East. Until somebody figures out how to build a pipeline over the Himalayas, that comes by sea--through the Straits of Hormuz, around India, through the Straits of Malacca. That's two of the most congested choke points in the world, plus a long transit around an increasingly powerful and unfriendly country. They are literally hanging by a string on energy. China is one hiccup away from disaster. So what are we doing? Providing military security for their greatest vulnerability while the make significant economic intrusions into our back yard.
Russia is a state in decline demographically. Within the next decade, their armed forces are going to shrink necessarily because of a shortage of 20-somethings to serve. Putin is probably at is most dangerous right now, because he knows his days as a near superpower may be limited, and Russia lacks the defensible borders that it controlled when the Iron Curtain ran from the Transylvanian Alps to the Baltic. Russia also exerts considerable influence over most of Western Europe because it controls so much of that region's oil and gas supply. Energy is the one area where Russia holds a distinct advantage over China.
Both Russia and China are very vulnerable. There are opportunities for us to exploit, but we are single-focused on a region that is really no longer critical to us.
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