(08-11-2019 11:58 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  

(08-10-2019 08:43 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(08-10-2019 05:38 PM)gosports1 Wrote:  I think the BE will stay put for now but will expand to 12 when negotiations start for the next contract. number 12 will be SLU

A reasonable prediction.

I'm not so sure. A year ago, heck - 2 months ago, I was adamant that SLU would be #11, if the BE ever expanded (unless of course UConn changed course, which ultimately happened). However, now that UConn is in tow, I would actually rank VCU now as the likeliest candidate. While UConn had maintained associations with many BE schools, their admittance allows for non-Private institutions to have a pathway into the conference. VCU would also give UConn a peer institution (large public school) within the league.

BUT, from 2020 until 2024/2025, the Big East will be able to accumulate over a decade of data on both the round-robin (all twelve seasons) and about five seasons worth of data on the twenty-game season. Like Stever suggests, it is entirely possible that the power conferences learn that the 20-game conference format is not optimal for births/seeds in the tournament. If it moves away from 20 games, and the Big East has eleven teams, it would actually make more sense to add a team for balancing purposes. Under this move, it would actually make sense to add a Saint Louis to give every member a travel member as follows:

Creighton-St. Louis
Marquette-DePaul
Butler-Xavier
Villanova-Georgetown
St. John's-Seton Hall
UConn-Providence

I understand your point about VCU. Makes sense. UConn obviously has a history witht eh BE and the original C-5. SLU has history with most of the newer teams. I think UConn is the exception it what I will now refer to as the UConn Rule

Gross. No to St Louis and VCU.

(08-12-2019 09:43 PM)HuskyU Wrote:  Gross. No to St Louis and VCU.

Saint Louis would be fine if the Big East had to expand for whatever reason in a couple years. The arena's already in place, the academics are there, the funding would be pretty secure with an endowment that would be second only to Georgetown, and they'd fill in some geography while adding a city that's a very good recruiting area. They did 7k average attendance last year against an A-10 schedule, so they should be good for 8-9k a night in the Big East. Agreed on VCU.

I think the Big East is going to look basically the same for the next 15-20 years, though.

(08-13-2019 09:50 AM)Bogg Wrote:  

(08-12-2019 09:43 PM)HuskyU Wrote:  Gross. No to St Louis and VCU.

Saint Louis would be fine if the Big East had to expand for whatever reason in a couple years. The arena's already in place, the academics are there, the funding would be pretty secure with an endowment that would be second only to Georgetown, and they'd fill in some geography while adding a city that's a very good recruiting area. They did 7k average attendance last year against an A-10 schedule, so they should be good for 8-9k a night in the Big East. Agreed on VCU.

I think the Big East is going to look basically the same for the next 15-20 years, though.

15 to 20 years for the composition of the league ... seems a bit bold a prediction. But I would not be shocked if it held true.

(08-13-2019 09:41 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(08-13-2019 09:50 AM)Bogg Wrote:  

(08-12-2019 09:43 PM)HuskyU Wrote:  Gross. No to St Louis and VCU.

Saint Louis would be fine if the Big East had to expand for whatever reason in a couple years. The arena's already in place, the academics are there, the funding would be pretty secure with an endowment that would be second only to Georgetown, and they'd fill in some geography while adding a city that's a very good recruiting area. They did 7k average attendance last year against an A-10 schedule, so they should be good for 8-9k a night in the Big East. Agreed on VCU.

I think the Big East is going to look basically the same for the next 15-20 years, though.

15 to 20 years for the composition of the league ... seems a bit bold a prediction. But I would not be shocked if it held true.

The Big Ten went 19 years between adding Penn State and Nebraska. The SEC went 21 years between adding South Carolina and Arkansas, and Missouri and Texas A&M. The PAC went 33 years between the additions of Arizona and Arizona State, and Colorado and Utah.

The difference, IMO, for the Big East is that those leagues added members due to football. Obviously, we would be doing so for basketball. Many of these conferences added in order to stage a conference championship game in football, which we do not have to worry about. However, for growth, the league would consider expansion for adding valuable markets (both in viewership/recruiting), content for our television package, increasing our strength in men's basketball and adding slots at MSG for the BET.

I would not be shocked at all if we looked to add a member, or even three, in 8-10 years to accomplish the latter. The Big East has just added a top-level program in UConn; it has proven itself to be a consistent top-level basketball conference; it has a full-membership capable of competing for tournament bids on a regular basis. At some point, adding value to the league will not come from the top, but rather to the middle (and even bottom).

I could see a scenario for SLU for #12, but I could also see a scenario for SLU #12, and a combination of Dayton, VCU or UMass for #13 and #14. The league doesn't have to go to fourteen members overnight, but I could definitely see that being the eventual goal. To me, fan support and facilities would be at the top of the list (Dayton would be up there, as would be VCU); however, SLU's market, institutional fit and potential under the Big East brand to add value would be too much to ignore IMO.

(08-13-2019 09:41 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(08-13-2019 09:50 AM)Bogg Wrote:  

(08-12-2019 09:43 PM)HuskyU Wrote:  Gross. No to St Louis and VCU.

Saint Louis would be fine if the Big East had to expand for whatever reason in a couple years. The arena's already in place, the academics are there, the funding would be pretty secure with an endowment that would be second only to Georgetown, and they'd fill in some geography while adding a city that's a very good recruiting area. They did 7k average attendance last year against an A-10 schedule, so they should be good for 8-9k a night in the Big East. Agreed on VCU.

I think the Big East is going to look basically the same for the next 15-20 years, though.

15 to 20 years for the composition of the league ... seems a bit bold a prediction. But I would not be shocked if it held true.

There's (obviously) a window around 2025 with the potential for a lot of instability, but if the Big East gets through there without making any additions there may not be a compelling reason to add anyone for the life of the next TV deal, which could last 10 years or more. It'd almost have to be the Big East wanting to get away from the double round robin, which to this point has been viewed as an asset. If the Big 12 signs a new contract, retaining their current membership, then the AAC probably stays as-is as well and it's just the same "Big East eyeballing the A10 and wishing Gonzaga was in Minneapolis" holding pattern it's been.

my gut feeling is that UConn closes the door on BE expansion or at least on any eastern school. i'm guessing that any reasonable western candidates aren't considered to add enough to the conference. i don't see any reason the BE will want to expand past 11. as an aside, i don't think UConn's return helps VCU in any way. i'm not familiar enough with VCU but my perception is that they are very different public schools

(08-13-2019 10:35 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  

(08-13-2019 09:41 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(08-13-2019 09:50 AM)Bogg Wrote:  

(08-12-2019 09:43 PM)HuskyU Wrote:  Gross. No to St Louis and VCU.

Saint Louis would be fine if the Big East had to expand for whatever reason in a couple years. The arena's already in place, the academics are there, the funding would be pretty secure with an endowment that would be second only to Georgetown, and they'd fill in some geography while adding a city that's a very good recruiting area. They did 7k average attendance last year against an A-10 schedule, so they should be good for 8-9k a night in the Big East. Agreed on VCU.

I think the Big East is going to look basically the same for the next 15-20 years, though.

15 to 20 years for the composition of the league ... seems a bit bold a prediction. But I would not be shocked if it held true.

The Big Ten went 19 years between adding Penn State and Nebraska. The SEC went 21 years between adding South Carolina and Arkansas, and Missouri and Texas A&M. The PAC went 33 years between the additions of Arizona and Arizona State, and Colorado and Utah.

The difference, IMO, for the Big East is that those leagues added members due to football. Obviously, we would be doing so for basketball. Many of these conferences added in order to stage a conference championship game in football, which we do not have to worry about. However, for growth, the league would consider expansion for adding valuable markets (both in viewership/recruiting), content for our television package, increasing our strength in men's basketball and adding slots at MSG for the BET.

I would not be shocked at all if we looked to add a member, or even three, in 8-10 years to accomplish the latter. The Big East has just added a top-level program in UConn; it has proven itself to be a consistent top-level basketball conference; it has a full-membership capable of competing for tournament bids on a regular basis. At some point, adding value to the league will not come from the top, but rather to the middle (and even bottom).

I could see a scenario for SLU for #12, but I could also see a scenario for SLU #12, and a combination of Dayton, VCU or UMass for #13 and #14. The league doesn't have to go to fourteen members overnight, but I could definitely see that being the eventual goal. To me, fan support and facilities would be at the top of the list (Dayton would be up there, as would be VCU); however, SLU's market, institutional fit and potential under the Big East brand to add value would be too much to ignore IMO.

If the Big 12 implodes, the Big Ten, SEC and ACC go to 16 members and the Pac-12 expands to 14 (or even 16), those four leagues — mathematically — will have a chance on occasion to land nine (and maybe even 10 for a great year) in the NCAA Tournament. On this theme, any reconfiguration from the ashes of the blow-up of the Big 12 (a handful of leftover Big 12 schools with some AAC and Mountain West schools) very well could yield a league with 16 members (in this hypothetical scenario) and be strong enough to land five to seven teams in the tourney each year.

The Big East with 11 schools is, realistically, going to get no more than eight (and seven might be more common). And that could possibly create some perception concerns. And it minimizes money to be made in the tourney (the fewer teams, the less the league generates — at least in theory).

It’s a numbers game. So I would like to see the Big East expand to 14 as quickly as possible so as to allow the three additions time to ramp up by the time the next round of expansion/realignment hits. Ideally, the league takes three of the following five (Dayton, UMass, Davidson, VCU and Saint Louis). Those are five quality universities/men’s basketball programs. And those hoops programs can get stronger quickly with Big East membership.

But even if there is no future conference expansion/realignment with the football-playing power leagues, having 14 provides the BE a cushion, of sorts, and “strength in numbers.”

Ah bill so glad you’re not in any position of influence lol

(08-15-2019 12:26 PM)scoscox Wrote:  Ah bill so glad you’re not in any position of influence lol

Admittedly, the Big East would likely be doomed if they hired me as a consultant.

But it's fun to speculate.

Realistically, the BE stands pat for quite a while.

(08-14-2019 08:23 AM)Bogg Wrote:  

(08-13-2019 09:41 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(08-13-2019 09:50 AM)Bogg Wrote:  

(08-12-2019 09:43 PM)HuskyU Wrote:  Gross. No to St Louis and VCU.

Saint Louis would be fine if the Big East had to expand for whatever reason in a couple years. The arena's already in place, the academics are there, the funding would be pretty secure with an endowment that would be second only to Georgetown, and they'd fill in some geography while adding a city that's a very good recruiting area. They did 7k average attendance last year against an A-10 schedule, so they should be good for 8-9k a night in the Big East. Agreed on VCU.

I think the Big East is going to look basically the same for the next 15-20 years, though.

15 to 20 years for the composition of the league ... seems a bit bold a prediction. But I would not be shocked if it held true.

There's (obviously) a window around 2025 with the potential for a lot of instability, but if the Big East gets through there without making any additions there may not be a compelling reason to add anyone for the life of the next TV deal, which could last 10 years or more. It'd almost have to be the Big East wanting to get away from the double round robin, which to this point has been viewed as an asset. If the Big 12 signs a new contract, retaining their current membership, then the AAC probably stays as-is as well and it's just the same "Big East eyeballing the A10 and wishing Gonzaga was in Minneapolis" holding pattern it's been.

All very valid points. And I do feel there is a good chance, as you note, the Big 12 and AAC could remain intact for years to come.

However, and in a crazy hypothetical ... it's a few years from now and the ranks of I-A football independents have grown with the addition of Cincy, Houston, Memphis and Temple (among others, as independence could actually become somewhat appealing down the road, though it's very unlikely). The Big East takes those four plus Wichita State to become a 16-team behemoth.

Seriously, there will have to be a compelling reason for the BE to add a program or programs. Otherwise, it will be 11 for many years. UConn made the most sense on so many levels. Gonzaga would be a major coup but it's simply too far-fetched.

i think jpschmack has the number at 13 teams as the number to theoretically produce the most bids.

honestly though, there is no need for further expansion since any school even remotely on the radar will still be available whenever the BE wants a school

Even if you think the ideal number for the Big East is something more than 11, you just have to wait a few more years to see how everything shakes out in 2025. The A10 teams will still be there and there's a possibility that the AAC has a serious round of defections that maybe shakes a leftover member loose rather than remain in what becomes current-CUSA+. As unlikely as it is, if the PAC wants noon eastern kickoffs badly enough to consider 9/10am kickoffs then maybe they want them badly enough to invite West Virginia as a football-only if the Big 12 starts to fall apart, and that would be the one remaining home run add for the Big East (to be clear, I don't think this is likely, just a pie-in-the-sky). If nothing shakes out with a Memphis or a West Virginia, and Fox (or someone else) really wants to pay the Big East more for 12 or 13 members, you can always double back to Saint Louis then.

(08-15-2019 04:39 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  All very valid points. And I do feel there is a good chance, as you note, the Big 12 and AAC could remain intact for years to come.

However, and in a crazy hypothetical ... it's a few years from now and the ranks of I-A football independents have grown with the addition of Cincy, Houston, Memphis and Temple (among others, as independence could actually become somewhat appealing down the road, though it's very unlikely). The Big East takes those four plus Wichita State to become a 16-team behemoth.

Seriously, there will have to be a compelling reason for the BE to add a program or programs. Otherwise, it will be 11 for many years. UConn made the most sense on so many levels. Gonzaga would be a major coup but it's simply too far-fetched.

Even if those programs decide to follow the Independence route, I strongly doubt that Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis and/or Temple will ever receive a Big East invitation. Cincinnati and Temple are already in markets covered by the Big East (Xavier and Villanova); more importantly, those schools infringe on the territory of those programs and could, potentially, do more harm to those programs than good. Houston is considerably outside the Big East footprint, and - as shown on the realignment board - is about as Northeast as a John Wayne-Western flick. The conference's identity is basketball-first schools with a strong Northeast presence. This eliminates Memphis as well.

From current P5 membership, if there ever was a cataclysmic shift with regards to football, the most realistic football-playing athletic programs that would likely ever be considered for Big East membership would be (in no particular order): West Virginia, Notre Dame, Boston College, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Vanderbilt and Wake Forest. Obviously, programs like Duke, UNC, Maryland, Virginia and Maryland would all be considered and immediately invited too, but my presumption is that if there was a shift like this, the smaller public schools and private schools would either be left out, or choose to join a more regional Olympic sports conference (and Duke, as an exception, would likely still be included either from the B1G or SEC).

IMO, the most intriguing school to watch in the coming years might very well be West Virginia. While I don't see Texas and/or Oklahoma making the difficult choice to leave the Big 12, if they did - it would cripple the Big 12 into a new "Best of the Rest" league, and likely substantially devalue the Big 12 payouts (and probability of a CFP spot annually). Under that scenario, they could decide to go to Independent in football, eliminating the cross-country travel for sports, and move everything else to the Big East (not unlike UConn). West Virginia is an excellent men's basketball program, and would fit nicely within the footprint (and complement UConn as the league's other public institution).

I'd welcome West Virginia/Kansas/Iowa State if the Big 12 were to implode.

(08-16-2019 08:57 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  

(08-15-2019 04:39 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  All very valid points. And I do feel there is a good chance, as you note, the Big 12 and AAC could remain intact for years to come.

However, and in a crazy hypothetical ... it's a few years from now and the ranks of I-A football independents have grown with the addition of Cincy, Houston, Memphis and Temple (among others, as independence could actually become somewhat appealing down the road, though it's very unlikely). The Big East takes those four plus Wichita State to become a 16-team behemoth.

Seriously, there will have to be a compelling reason for the BE to add a program or programs. Otherwise, it will be 11 for many years. UConn made the most sense on so many levels. Gonzaga would be a major coup but it's simply too far-fetched.

Even if those programs decide to follow the Independence route, I strongly doubt that Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis and/or Temple will ever receive a Big East invitation. Cincinnati and Temple are already in markets covered by the Big East (Xavier and Villanova); more importantly, those schools infringe on the territory of those programs and could, potentially, do more harm to those programs than good. Houston is considerably outside the Big East footprint, and - as shown on the realignment board - is about as Northeast as a John Wayne-Western flick. The conference's identity is basketball-first schools with a strong Northeast presence. This eliminates Memphis as well.

From current P5 membership, if there ever was a cataclysmic shift with regards to football, the most realistic football-playing athletic programs that would likely ever be considered for Big East membership would be (in no particular order): West Virginia, Notre Dame, Boston College, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Vanderbilt and Wake Forest. Obviously, programs like Duke, UNC, Maryland, Virginia and Maryland would all be considered and immediately invited too, but my presumption is that if there was a shift like this, the smaller public schools and private schools would either be left out, or choose to join a more regional Olympic sports conference (and Duke, as an exception, would likely still be included either from the B1G or SEC).

IMO, the most intriguing school to watch in the coming years might very well be West Virginia. While I don't see Texas and/or Oklahoma making the difficult choice to leave the Big 12, if they did - it would cripple the Big 12 into a new "Best of the Rest" league, and likely substantially devalue the Big 12 payouts (and probability of a CFP spot annually). Under that scenario, they could decide to go to Independent in football, eliminating the cross-country travel for sports, and move everything else to the Big East (not unlike UConn). West Virginia is an excellent men's basketball program, and would fit nicely within the footprint (and complement UConn as the league's other public institution).

Good points. I'm with you overall. The "duplicate market" element would, indeed, rule out Temple and Cincy (though both would be qualified). Houston is too far removed geographically. I do think Memphis would be a solid candidate in this insane hypothetical. If the Big East is willing to take Creighton in Omaha, the Memphis locale is not too far-fetched. Having said that, I struggle to see a scenario in which Houston, Cincy, Temple and Memphis would be interested in the Big East or in which the Big East would be interested in those four. Not a good "fit" for either party. Wichita would be VERY interested (and worthy) but, again, not an ideal fit.

The first seven schools you list would each bring much to the table, but again ... (and, obviously, we are dealing with wild hypotheticals here) a bit over-the-top.

West Virginia could, in theory, be available (if the Big 12 splinters) and has a history with most of the BE programs. Your point is well made. But I view WVa as a "football first" university. UConn (though also public) is "basketball first." A key factor (potentially at least).

I struggle to envision the universities you list (West Virginia, Notre Dame, Boston College, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, Duke, UNC, Maryland and Virginia) ever being in a league that does not sponsor football. Most of those listed (basically, all but WVa) are VERY prestigious academically and would want to be aligned with a "comprehensive" conference with massive academic budgets, endowments, football, research, etc. However, strange things can happen.

Conversely, I could see (though highly unlikely) Cincy, Houston, Memphis and Temple go indy in football in the future (if the wildcard scenario of a Big 12 implosion hits and the P5 further consolidates power) and have a loose-knit confederation for football scheduling purposes. Those four could then assemble, say, six to eight more schools (Wichita would be one) that emphasize hoops and, thus, have a very strong basketball-first league. But as a Memphis and Cincinnati supporter, I'm not sure I would want that. I like the AAC rather well at this point.

Various posts in this thread have included intriguing options for the Big East. I'm clueless with this stuff overall but I do like the BE eventually having 14. 11 is better than 10 and having UConn is much better than not having UConn. The future seems bright.

one reason given for expansion by fans is to provide a bridge to Creighton. Why? has there been any reports from CU or any BE school that trips to Omaha have been a problem? in the same vein, why would another public school be needed? UConn, besides it's history with the BE, is not like WVU or VCU. Clearly the prospect of being the lone public school was not an impediment.

Butler was fine as the lone nonsectarian school for 6 years, Creighton seems fine being the western most school and UConn the lone public. Further expansion seems to be a solution looking for a problem.

(08-16-2019 04:59 PM)trephin Wrote:  one reason given for expansion by fans is to provide a bridge to Creighton. Why? has there been any reports from CU or any BE school that trips to Omaha have been a problem? in the same vein, why would another public school be needed? UConn, besides it's history with the BE, is not like WVU or VCU. Clearly the prospect of being the lone public school was not an impediment.

Butler was fine as the lone nonsectarian school for 6 years, Creighton seems fine being the western most school and UConn the lone public. Further expansion seems to be a solution looking for a problem.

Couldn't agree more with every point

If 20 conference games is a fad that is short lived, which is very possible IMO if the committee doesn't start sending 18-15 type teams to the tourney, then expansion to 12 teams to get a better schedule with 18 games is very possible. I just don't know how willing the committee is going to be to allow teams like last years Indiana at 17-15 to make the tourney or Alabama at 18-15... If a team like Indiana gets shut out regularly, why would conferences stick with 20?

Better media deals