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Sun Belt Predictions 2019
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BirdofParadise Offline
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Post: #41
RE: Sun Belt Predictions 2019
I am a believer that home field advantage is real. While road teams can, and do, win, I believe this year the schedules may tell the story.

With that said:

EAST
1. Troy--They get Arkansas State, Georgia Southern and App all at home. They travel to Louisiana and avoid ULM. I think it comes down to the final game and I like the Trojans at home.

2. App--They avoid Arky State and get GS and ULM at home. Those road games at Louisiana and Troy won't be a walk in the park. Again, I think it comes down to the final game.

3. GS--They must have pissed off the schedule makers. They get the Louisiana schools at home, but have to go to App, Troy and Arkansas State. That is not a recipe for success.

WEST
1. Arkansas State--They avoid App and get the Cajuns and GS at home. They go to Troy and ULM.
2. Louisiana--They travel to GS and Arkansas State where they've won twice in 26 years. They get App, Troy and ULM at home. A win in Jonesboro might get it done, but history really works against them.
3. ULM--They only get Arkansas State in Monroe. They go to App Georgia Southern and Louisiana. (Texas State's schedule isn't any better, with trips to AState, App and Louisiana)
08-05-2019 09:34 AM
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TroyFootball05 Online
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Post: #42
RE: Sun Belt Predictions 2019
(08-05-2019 09:34 AM)BirdofParadise Wrote:  I am a believer that home field advantage is real. While road teams can, and do, win, I believe this year the schedules may tell the story.

With that said:

EAST
1. Troy--They get Arkansas State, Georgia Southern and App all at home. They travel to Louisiana and avoid ULM. I think it comes down to the final game and I like the Trojans at home.

2. App--They avoid Arky State and get GS and ULM at home. Those road games at Louisiana and Troy won't be a walk in the park. Again, I think it comes down to the final game.

3. GS--They must have pissed off the schedule makers. They get the Louisiana schools at home, but have to go to App, Troy and Arkansas State. That is not a recipe for success.

WEST
1. Arkansas State--They avoid App and get the Cajuns and GS at home. They go to Troy and ULM.
2. Louisiana--They travel to GS and Arkansas State where they've won twice in 26 years. They get App, Troy and ULM at home. A win in Jonesboro might get it done, but history really works against them.
3. ULM--They only get Arkansas State in Monroe. They go to App Georgia Southern and Louisiana. (Texas State's schedule isn't any better, with trips to AState, App and Louisiana)

I'm not sold on Arkansas State. They lose their QB and have had a large amount of staff turnover. God Bless Wendy and Blake, but one has to think she will be on his mind much of the season.
08-05-2019 09:55 AM
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FTE_rawr Offline
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Post: #43
RE: Sun Belt Predictions 2019
If Drink is anything better than mediocre, we win the whole shebang. If not, Troy takes it.
08-05-2019 10:01 AM
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ericsaid Offline
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Post: #44
RE: Sun Belt Predictions 2019
(08-05-2019 10:01 AM)FTE_rawr Wrote:  If Drink is anything better than mediocre, we win the whole shebang. If not, Troy takes it.

Troy also has a new coach.

Not sure why people are sleeping on Georgia Southern? Their turnover margin is likely to regress to the mean but they just won 10 games and are the only of the Big 3 in the East to return their coaching staff.
08-05-2019 12:10 PM
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TroyFootball05 Online
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RE: Sun Belt Predictions 2019
(08-05-2019 12:10 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  
(08-05-2019 10:01 AM)FTE_rawr Wrote:  If Drink is anything better than mediocre, we win the whole shebang. If not, Troy takes it.

Troy also has a new coach.

Not sure why people are sleeping on Georgia Southern? Their turnover margin is likely to regress to the mean but they just won 10 games and are the only of the Big 3 in the East to return their coaching staff.

My personal opinion: I'm not sold on Lindsey. Big question mark for me. With four defensive starters gone through the portal to other Earths, many of them if not all of being all conference players, and the all-conference guys we lost to graduation, the defense looks to take a step back.

Brandon Hall has all the signs of a really, really good defensive coordinator, but Vic Koenning was an all-time defensive coordinator. He was on another level, and I've always said he was a bigger part of our success than Neal Brown's playcalling.

We also replace out top three receivers, including Damion Willis who is turning heads with the Bengals. We still have a lord's buffet of talent on the roster, especially at receiver and defensive line, but there are a lot of new faces on the field, and on the sidelines. Until Chip really impresses me, I'll be in wait and see mode.

Let me also say this. I don't like that we have a bye week in week 2, before Southern Miss. That seems to me like it would tough to evaluate Game 1 since we play Campbell. Having a week off makes it more difficult to keep the ball rolling and improve that early, with a new coaching staff. Southern Miss is by all accounts supposed to be really good, and they could give us some payback. People shouldn't go into this game thinking nothing has changed.
(This post was last modified: 08-05-2019 12:28 PM by TroyFootball05.)
08-05-2019 12:20 PM
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TrueBlueDrew Offline
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Post: #46
RE: Sun Belt Predictions 2019
(08-05-2019 12:10 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  
(08-05-2019 10:01 AM)FTE_rawr Wrote:  If Drink is anything better than mediocre, we win the whole shebang. If not, Troy takes it.

Troy also has a new coach.

Not sure why people are sleeping on Georgia Southern? Their turnover margin is likely to regress to the mean but they just won 10 games and are the only of the Big 3 in the East to return their coaching staff.

[Image: tenor.gif]
08-05-2019 01:51 PM
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eaglewraith Online
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Post: #47
RE: Sun Belt Predictions 2019
(08-05-2019 12:10 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  
(08-05-2019 10:01 AM)FTE_rawr Wrote:  If Drink is anything better than mediocre, we win the whole shebang. If not, Troy takes it.

Troy also has a new coach.

Not sure why people are sleeping on Georgia Southern? Their turnover margin is likely to regress to the mean but they just won 10 games and are the only of the Big 3 in the East to return their coaching staff.

Which of our games were affected by turnover luck last year?

Do you know the difference between our expected turnovers and actual to determine what kind of regression you're expecting?

We have a lot less questions to answer about what is going to happen with our team than Troy and App do. However, I seem to recall you saying that App was going to pick up where they left off last year just with more passing? Already trying to walk that back a little?
(This post was last modified: 08-05-2019 02:32 PM by eaglewraith.)
08-05-2019 02:31 PM
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Saint3333 Offline
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RE: Sun Belt Predictions 2019
App's offense isn't going to be an issue, 10 starters back. Defense there are questions at DT and CB.
08-05-2019 02:37 PM
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_x_ Offline
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Post: #49
RE: Sun Belt Predictions 2019
(08-05-2019 02:31 PM)eaglewraith Wrote:  
(08-05-2019 12:10 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  
(08-05-2019 10:01 AM)FTE_rawr Wrote:  If Drink is anything better than mediocre, we win the whole shebang. If not, Troy takes it.

Troy also has a new coach.

Not sure why people are sleeping on Georgia Southern? Their turnover margin is likely to regress to the mean but they just won 10 games and are the only of the Big 3 in the East to return their coaching staff.

Which of our games were affected by turnover luck last year?

Do you know the difference between our expected turnovers and actual to determine what kind of regression you're expecting?

We have a lot less questions to answer about what is going to happen with our team than Troy and App do. However, I seem to recall you saying that App was going to pick up where they left off last year just with more passing? Already trying to walk that back a little?

You know you're not a favorite poster of a fanbase when they take offense to such a positive comment...
08-05-2019 03:21 PM
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eaglewraith Online
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RE: Sun Belt Predictions 2019
(08-05-2019 03:21 PM)_x_ Wrote:  
(08-05-2019 02:31 PM)eaglewraith Wrote:  
(08-05-2019 12:10 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  
(08-05-2019 10:01 AM)FTE_rawr Wrote:  If Drink is anything better than mediocre, we win the whole shebang. If not, Troy takes it.

Troy also has a new coach.

Not sure why people are sleeping on Georgia Southern? Their turnover margin is likely to regress to the mean but they just won 10 games and are the only of the Big 3 in the East to return their coaching staff.

Which of our games were affected by turnover luck last year?

Do you know the difference between our expected turnovers and actual to determine what kind of regression you're expecting?

We have a lot less questions to answer about what is going to happen with our team than Troy and App do. However, I seem to recall you saying that App was going to pick up where they left off last year just with more passing? Already trying to walk that back a little?

You know you're not a favorite poster of a fanbase when they take offense to such a positive comment...

Edit: Lol. He's definitely my favorite ECU fan though.
(This post was last modified: 08-05-2019 03:37 PM by eaglewraith.)
08-05-2019 03:35 PM
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ericsaid Offline
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Post: #51
RE: Sun Belt Predictions 2019
(08-05-2019 02:31 PM)eaglewraith Wrote:  
(08-05-2019 12:10 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  
(08-05-2019 10:01 AM)FTE_rawr Wrote:  If Drink is anything better than mediocre, we win the whole shebang. If not, Troy takes it.

Troy also has a new coach.

Not sure why people are sleeping on Georgia Southern? Their turnover margin is likely to regress to the mean but they just won 10 games and are the only of the Big 3 in the East to return their coaching staff.

Which of our games were affected by turnover luck last year?

Do you know the difference between our expected turnovers and actual to determine what kind of regression you're expecting?

We have a lot less questions to answer about what is going to happen with our team than Troy and App do. However, I seem to recall you saying that App was going to pick up where they left off last year just with more passing? Already trying to walk that back a little?

Quote where I've said anything similar to that.

The closest thing that I recall being stated was that App's offense would involve more passing. I don't believe I made any statement to the success of the offense, or defense, other than there might be an opportunity to see bigger numbers through the air.

No predictions on record have been made.

Try again.
08-05-2019 03:35 PM
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eaglewraith Online
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RE: Sun Belt Predictions 2019
(08-05-2019 02:37 PM)Saint3333 Wrote:  App's offense isn't going to be an issue, 10 starters back. Defense there are questions at DT and CB.

I'd expect things to be a little interesting early on. Even Drinkwitz said that the experience is negated by the fact that the experience you have returning doesn't have experience in what he's asking them to do.

Doesn't mean they won't get it together though.
08-05-2019 03:36 PM
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moehler Offline
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RE: Sun Belt Predictions 2019
GS might actually have a better team this yr, but because of that insanely difficult schedule, it’s tough to see them winning the East. As fas APP goes, honesty even the fans really don’t have a clue what to expect, SS was very open with his practices, you could get a detailed update almost everyday on what was being worked on, Drink on the other hand seems to want to keep things closer to the vest, nothing wrong with doing it this way, just a different way of doing things.
08-05-2019 04:19 PM
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TroyFootball05 Online
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RE: Sun Belt Predictions 2019
(08-05-2019 04:19 PM)moehler Wrote:  GS might actually have a better team this yr, but because of that insanely difficult schedule, it’s tough to see them winning the East. As fas APP goes, honesty even the fans really don’t have a clue what to expect, SS was very open with his practices, you could get a detailed update almost everyday on what was being worked on, Drink on the other hand seems to want to keep things closer to the vest, nothing wrong with doing it this way, just a different way of doing things.

I think being on the road at APP and Troy is mitigated by APP and Troy having new staffs. The turnovers deal is speculation. It will 100% not be as good, but there's no indication that it will be bad. Year two under Lunsford should be a better team, so it's not that far fetched that GS gets back to 10 wins. I'm thinking 8 or 9, but it would not surprise me to see 10 or 11 wins. Depends on what P5s you have on the schedule.
08-05-2019 04:50 PM
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FTE_rawr Offline
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Post: #55
RE: Sun Belt Predictions 2019
(08-05-2019 04:50 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  
(08-05-2019 04:19 PM)moehler Wrote:  GS might actually have a better team this yr, but because of that insanely difficult schedule, it’s tough to see them winning the East. As fas APP goes, honesty even the fans really don’t have a clue what to expect, SS was very open with his practices, you could get a detailed update almost everyday on what was being worked on, Drink on the other hand seems to want to keep things closer to the vest, nothing wrong with doing it this way, just a different way of doing things.

I think being on the road at APP and Troy is mitigated by APP and Troy having new staffs. The turnovers deal is speculation. It will 100% not be as good, but there's no indication that it will be bad. Year two under Lunsford should be a better team, so it's not that far fetched that GS gets back to 10 wins. I'm thinking 8 or 9, but it would not surprise me to see 10 or 11 wins. Depends on what P5s you have on the schedule.

It's like we see Georgia Southern have a bad year with a new coach, and automatically assume that all new coaches will be bad.

I don't care who the head coach is. Good luck playing App at The Rock. We haven't lost a home game since wake 2 seasons ago.
08-05-2019 05:09 PM
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TroyFootball05 Online
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RE: Sun Belt Predictions 2019
(08-05-2019 05:09 PM)FTE_rawr Wrote:  
(08-05-2019 04:50 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  
(08-05-2019 04:19 PM)moehler Wrote:  GS might actually have a better team this yr, but because of that insanely difficult schedule, it’s tough to see them winning the East. As fas APP goes, honesty even the fans really don’t have a clue what to expect, SS was very open with his practices, you could get a detailed update almost everyday on what was being worked on, Drink on the other hand seems to want to keep things closer to the vest, nothing wrong with doing it this way, just a different way of doing things.

I think being on the road at APP and Troy is mitigated by APP and Troy having new staffs. The turnovers deal is speculation. It will 100% not be as good, but there's no indication that it will be bad. Year two under Lunsford should be a better team, so it's not that far fetched that GS gets back to 10 wins. I'm thinking 8 or 9, but it would not surprise me to see 10 or 11 wins. Depends on what P5s you have on the schedule.

It's like we see Georgia Southern have a bad year with a new coach, and automatically assume that all new coaches will be bad.

I don't care who the head coach is. Good luck playing App at The Rock. We haven't lost a home game since wake 2 seasons ago.

I'm not assuming they will be bad, only that it's a stretch to automatically assume they will be as good as Brown / Satt. They were superior coaches through and through. This isn't year five with Brown / Satt. It's day zero with head coaches with zero experience being head coaches. Questions about how this will play out are normal.
08-05-2019 05:15 PM
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T2003 Offline
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Post: #57
RE: Sun Belt Predictions 2019
(08-05-2019 12:20 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  
(08-05-2019 12:10 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  
(08-05-2019 10:01 AM)FTE_rawr Wrote:  If Drink is anything better than mediocre, we win the whole shebang. If not, Troy takes it.

Troy also has a new coach.

Not sure why people are sleeping on Georgia Southern? Their turnover margin is likely to regress to the mean but they just won 10 games and are the only of the Big 3 in the East to return their coaching staff.

My personal opinion: I'm not sold on Lindsey. Big question mark for me. With four defensive starters gone through the portal to other Earths, many of them if not all of being all conference players, and the all-conference guys we lost to graduation, the defense looks to take a step back.

Brandon Hall has all the signs of a really, really good defensive coordinator, but Vic Koenning was an all-time defensive coordinator. He was on another level, and I've always said he was a bigger part of our success than Neal Brown's playcalling.

We also replace out top three receivers, including Damion Willis who is turning heads with the Bengals. We still have a lord's buffet of talent on the roster, especially at receiver and defensive line, but there are a lot of new faces on the field, and on the sidelines. Until Chip really impresses me, I'll be in wait and see mode.

Let me also say this. I don't like that we have a bye week in week 2, before Southern Miss. That seems to me like it would tough to evaluate Game 1 since we play Campbell. Having a week off makes it more difficult to keep the ball rolling and improve that early, with a new coaching staff. Southern Miss is by all accounts supposed to be really good, and they could give us some payback. People shouldn't go into this game thinking nothing has changed.

I totally agree, all these factors combined, WVU stealing our coaches, the transfer portal stealing our players and the new USM AD (who scheduled a bye-week in week2) will prevent us from having a successful season. I think we will still win 7 games but not compete for the title this year...
08-05-2019 05:16 PM
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WinstonTheWolf Offline
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Post: #58
RE: Sun Belt Predictions 2019
(08-05-2019 09:55 AM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  
(08-05-2019 09:34 AM)BirdofParadise Wrote:  I am a believer that home field advantage is real. While road teams can, and do, win, I believe this year the schedules may tell the story.

With that said:

EAST
1. Troy--They get Arkansas State, Georgia Southern and App all at home. They travel to Louisiana and avoid ULM. I think it comes down to the final game and I like the Trojans at home.

2. App--They avoid Arky State and get GS and ULM at home. Those road games at Louisiana and Troy won't be a walk in the park. Again, I think it comes down to the final game.

3. GS--They must have pissed off the schedule makers. They get the Louisiana schools at home, but have to go to App, Troy and Arkansas State. That is not a recipe for success.

WEST
1. Arkansas State--They avoid App and get the Cajuns and GS at home. They go to Troy and ULM.
2. Louisiana--They travel to GS and Arkansas State where they've won twice in 26 years. They get App, Troy and ULM at home. A win in Jonesboro might get it done, but history really works against them.
3. ULM--They only get Arkansas State in Monroe. They go to App Georgia Southern and Louisiana. (Texas State's schedule isn't any better, with trips to AState, App and Louisiana)

I'm not sold on Arkansas State. They lose their QB and have had a large amount of staff turnover. God Bless Wendy and Blake, but one has to think she will be on his mind much of the season.
You are seldom sold on stAte.

Best WRs in SBC. RB group will be stronger than last couple years.
Best DL group in SBC. I'm not worried about Logan Bonner at QB.

stAte lost 3 close games last year late in games that could have put the Red Wolves at 11 wins. GS, Cajuns, Nevada. Stuff must be improved/fixed. We'll see if the coaching changes make a difference.

The talent is there to have a big season.

If stAte avoids injuries . . . should be a really good year.
08-05-2019 05:47 PM
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Saint3333 Offline
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Post: #59
RE: Sun Belt Predictions 2019
(08-05-2019 03:36 PM)eaglewraith Wrote:  
(08-05-2019 02:37 PM)Saint3333 Wrote:  App's offense isn't going to be an issue, 10 starters back. Defense there are questions at DT and CB.

I'd expect things to be a little interesting early on. Even Drinkwitz said that the experience is negated by the fact that the experience you have returning doesn't have experience in what he's asking them to do.

Doesn't mean they won't get it together though.

This is more hopeful than based on circumstances. The offensive blocking scheme hasn’t changed. NCSU adopted our scheme when Ledford went there. If Drink wants to insert short range passes he has two great TEs, Hennigan, Williams, and a converted WR at RB in Evans.
08-05-2019 06:14 PM
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moehler Offline
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RE: Sun Belt Predictions 2019
(08-05-2019 05:16 PM)T2003 Wrote:  
(08-05-2019 12:20 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  
(08-05-2019 12:10 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  
(08-05-2019 10:01 AM)FTE_rawr Wrote:  If Drink is anything better than mediocre, we win the whole shebang. If not, Troy takes it.

Troy also has a new coach.

Not sure why people are sleeping on Georgia Southern? Their turnover margin is likely to regress to the mean but they just won 10 games and are the only of the Big 3 in the East to return their coaching staff.

My personal opinion: I'm not sold on Lindsey. Big question mark for me. With four defensive starters gone through the portal to other Earths, many of them if not all of being all conference players, and the all-conference guys we lost to graduation, the defense looks to take a step back.

Brandon Hall has all the signs of a really, really good defensive coordinator, but Vic Koenning was an all-time defensive coordinator. He was on another level, and I've always said he was a bigger part of our success than Neal Brown's playcalling.

We also replace out top three receivers, including Damion Willis who is turning heads with the Bengals. We still have a lord's buffet of talent on the roster, especially at receiver and defensive line, but there are a lot of new faces on the field, and on the sidelines. Until Chip really impresses me, I'll be in wait and see mode.

Let me also say this. I don't like that we have a bye week in week 2, before Southern Miss. That seems to me like it would tough to evaluate Game 1 since we play Campbell. Having a week off makes it more difficult to keep the ball rolling and improve that early, with a new coaching staff. Southern Miss is by all accounts supposed to be really good, and they could give us some payback. People shouldn't go into this game thinking nothing has changed.

I totally agree, all these factors combined, WVU stealing our coaches, the transfer portal stealing our players and the new USM AD (who scheduled a bye-week in week2) will prevent us from having a successful season. I think we will still win 7 games but not compete for the title this year...

No doubt Troy has had a very rough offseason, but I still think they are going to compete for the championship, the retuning talent, even with all the transfers is still one of the best in the conference. As far as Ark St. no one is questioning the overall talent, but every yr they seem lose a game or two they shouldn’t because of questionable coaching. If they can just play solid, smart football and just take care of business the ULL game should be for the West championship.
08-05-2019 06:19 PM
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