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I doubt anyone remembers but last season I put out my football projection for UAB after running a regression on the attendance data for every year from 2007 to 2017. I like to put this together because data fascinates me, and I enjoy UAB athletics.

The regression is built off of ESPN's FPI ranking, team wins & team losses. I have also blended this together with a couple of other ones (one that removes outlier attendance from the first game back, and another one that just runs on wins & losses) to try and get this more accurate.

This season ESPN is projection UAB as the #98 team with 7.3 wins & 4.8 losses. Using that info, I'm projecting an average attendance on the season of 25,386.

Last year's final projection was 24,832 & UAB's actual average attendance was 24,291 so I was pretty happy with those results.

This is really cool. What do you use to run the regression analysis?

Thank you for the reply! I just use Excel regression since it's not a ton of data and only a few points. Here's the yearly summary with how close (or not) they came.

This is good stuff. The main 2 thing I see... 1) Winning puts butts in seats. 2) From 2007-2013, we had about 14,000-16,000 DIEHARD fans :)

As a forecasting/statistical FN wonk, I love this! Hopefully we over shoot the projection in 2021 by 5% or more due to the new stadium factor.

They could not run us off.

(07-20-2019 11:27 PM)FNblazer Wrote:  As a forecasting/statistical FN wonk, I love this! Hopefully we over shoot the projection in 2021 by 5% or more due to the new stadium factor.

Gonna add at least 10% and I won't be shocked if it's closer to 20%, at least in the first season there. Yes, I believe the aversion to going west of UAB is that strong. We will pick up many more Birmingham area residents that are from out-of-state. Most of my neighbors in my North Shelby neighborhood are not from here and there is no way they will drive anywhere west of UAB in Birmingham. Even though they may be primary fans of another school, the new stadium and surrounding amenities will lure those people in. Great football will get them back.

Games attendance compared to last year.
#1 Last year Savannah State drew 27,124 which surprised me. Playing Alabama State should draw at least 5,000 more. First game 32,000.
#2 Last year we played Tulane 21,991 in the afternoon and it rained. This year we play South Alabama our first game on the NFL Network at 2:30. Add 3,000 to 25,000
#3 Last year Charlotte 25,395 and this year we play Rice. I expect the same crowd 25,000.
#4 Homecoming is becoming a big deal and I expect it to get bigger. It's a great tie in with Children's Hospital. Last year against UNT 28,014. This year 30,000 against ODU. On a side not I expect this to be a great game. It will be a battle.
#5 UTSA last year at 17,605. This year we play UTEP basically the same numbers are expected. If we beat Tennessee and Southern Mississippi our attendance amazing because we would probably be in the Top 25 and undefeated.
#6 Last year Southern Mississippi 25,618 which was a disappointment. This year La Tech I expect 30,000 but this game could decide the Western Division and I know that Tech would love to end our home winning streak.The last time we lost a home game was against a 25th ranked Marshall in 2014 Clark's first year. We almost won that one on a Jordan Howard 4th down run.
I don't believe that we will finish 4th in the West. The consecutive Coach of the Year will be ready. Things to remember about our home schedule. First time to play USA. Ric's HC use to coach in Dothan. ODU is underrated for Homecoming. La Tech wants revenge. UNT has a bad defense. A win over Tennessee could raise our program on a national level.

(07-22-2019 10:21 PM)Steel Dragon Wrote:  Games attendance compared to last year.
#1 Last year Savannah State drew 27,124 which surprised me. Playing Alabama State should draw at least 5,000 more. First game 32,000.
#2 Last year we played Tulane 21,991 in the afternoon and it rained. This year we play South Alabama our first game on the NFL Network at 2:30. Add 3,000 to 25,000
#3 Last year Charlotte 25,395 and this year we play Rice. I expect the same crowd 25,000.
#4 Homecoming is becoming a big deal and I expect it to get bigger. It's a great tie in with Children's Hospital. Last year against UNT 28,014. This year 30,000 against ODU. On a side not I expect this to be a great game. It will be a battle.
#5 UTSA last year at 17,605. This year we play UTEP basically the same numbers are expected. If we beat Tennessee and Southern Mississippi our attendance amazing because we would probably be in the Top 25 and undefeated.
#6 Last year Southern Mississippi 25,618 which was a disappointment. This year La Tech I expect 30,000 but this game could decide the Western Division and I know that Tech would love to end our home winning streak.The last time we lost a home game was against a 25th ranked Marshall in 2014 Clark's first year. We almost won that one on a Jordan Howard 4th down run.
I don't believe that we will finish 4th in the West. The consecutive Coach of the Year will be ready. Things to remember about our home schedule. First time to play USA. Ric's HC use to coach in Dothan. ODU is underrated for Homecoming. La Tech wants revenge. UNT has a bad defense. A win over Tennessee could raise our program on a national level.

I think you're accurate on Alabama State. They'll actually bring fans, unlike SSU, and playing on Thursday helps. As much as people hate weekday games, playing on Thursday before Auburn & Alabama was big in getting casual Birmingham people there.

In that same vein though, Alabama-LSU being on at the same time absolutely contributed to the lower attendance against UTSA...and UAB being a 22.5 point favorite.

For Southern Miss I blame the weather. I've watched games in the snow that felt less cold than that one.

(07-23-2019 12:27 PM)Auburn_Blazer Wrote:  

(07-22-2019 10:21 PM)Steel Dragon Wrote:  Games attendance compared to last year.
#1 Last year Savannah State drew 27,124 which surprised me. Playing Alabama State should draw at least 5,000 more. First game 32,000.
#2 Last year we played Tulane 21,991 in the afternoon and it rained. This year we play South Alabama our first game on the NFL Network at 2:30. Add 3,000 to 25,000
#3 Last year Charlotte 25,395 and this year we play Rice. I expect the same crowd 25,000.
#4 Homecoming is becoming a big deal and I expect it to get bigger. It's a great tie in with Children's Hospital. Last year against UNT 28,014. This year 30,000 against ODU. On a side not I expect this to be a great game. It will be a battle.
#5 UTSA last year at 17,605. This year we play UTEP basically the same numbers are expected. If we beat Tennessee and Southern Mississippi our attendance amazing because we would probably be in the Top 25 and undefeated.
#6 Last year Southern Mississippi 25,618 which was a disappointment. This year La Tech I expect 30,000 but this game could decide the Western Division and I know that Tech would love to end our home winning streak.The last time we lost a home game was against a 25th ranked Marshall in 2014 Clark's first year. We almost won that one on a Jordan Howard 4th down run.
I don't believe that we will finish 4th in the West. The consecutive Coach of the Year will be ready. Things to remember about our home schedule. First time to play USA. Ric's HC use to coach in Dothan. ODU is underrated for Homecoming. La Tech wants revenge. UNT has a bad defense. A win over Tennessee could raise our program on a national level.

I think you're accurate on Alabama State. They'll actually bring fans, unlike SSU, and playing on Thursday helps. As much as people hate weekday games, playing on Thursday before Auburn & Alabama was big in getting casual Birmingham people there.

In that same vein though, Alabama-LSU being on at the same time absolutely contributed to the lower attendance against UTSA...and UAB being a 22.5 point favorite.

For Southern Miss I blame the weather. I've watched games in the snow that felt less cold than that one.

That SoMiss game was brutal. But, with the final outcome, it got so warm, so quickly.

Tulane game was a steam bath and the heat kept folks away. USM was weather issues as well as at one point it was sleeting. Many folks that did show up bailed at halftime.

(07-23-2019 03:35 PM)ATTALLABLAZE Wrote:  Tulane game was a steam bath and the heat kept folks away. USM was weather issues as well as at one point it was sleeting. Many folks that did show up bailed at halftime.

We keep on hearing these good arguments for enclosed climate controlled stadiums, but so far no one wants to build one in B'ham. "Steam bath and sun burns" to "sleet and snow" seem to be favored venues.

(07-23-2019 03:40 PM)BAMANBLAZERFAN Wrote:  

(07-23-2019 03:35 PM)ATTALLABLAZE Wrote:  Tulane game was a steam bath and the heat kept folks away. USM was weather issues as well as at one point it was sleeting. Many folks that did show up bailed at halftime.

We keep on hearing these good arguments for enclosed climate controlled stadiums, but so far no one wants to build one in B'ham. "Steam bath and sun burns" to "sleet and snow" seem to be favored venues.

correct. its so true that Minnesota (you think there have been cold games in Bham, try Minnesota) built an open stadium so they didnt have to play in that awful dome environment anymore

(07-23-2019 05:13 PM)LairDweller Wrote:  

(07-23-2019 03:40 PM)BAMANBLAZERFAN Wrote:  

(07-23-2019 03:35 PM)ATTALLABLAZE Wrote:  Tulane game was a steam bath and the heat kept folks away. USM was weather issues as well as at one point it was sleeting. Many folks that did show up bailed at halftime.

We keep on hearing these good arguments for enclosed climate controlled stadiums, but so far no one wants to build one in B'ham. "Steam bath and sun burns" to "sleet and snow" seem to be favored venues.

correct. its so true that Minnesota (you think there have been cold games in Bham, try Minnesota) built an open stadium so they didnt have to play in that awful dome environment anymore

So true about Minnesota weather. A friend who lives there says there are two seasons there -- August and winter. The thing about cold is that you can dress for it by layered clothing. "Steam bath and sun burn/sun stroke weather" has clothing limitations in that you can only take off a certain amount of clothing in public. This is not a factor in Minn. The largest "dome" facilities I have seen built in recent times are all in temperate climate areas. Are these people in Florida, California, Texas and Georgia crazy or just smarter than us?

Yeah. Several hours in a Minnesota winter are WAY worse than several hours in an Alabama summer. Unbelievable

(07-23-2019 06:51 PM)LairDweller Wrote:  Yeah. Several hours in a Minnesota winter are WAY worse than several hours in an Alabama summer. Unbelievable

I was not among the posters who complained about the heat and monsoon rains affecting attendance. What to me is "unbelievable" is that we continue to promote the idea that it does not matter to fans in spite of complaints to the contrary.

I am reminded of the GA Dome's manager who stated after a storm caused damage during an SEC BB tournament, that they needed to get repairs done promptly since the dome had "over 200 events (he did not say '200 football games') scheduled for the venue so they needed to get repairs done before they were moved elsewhere".

How in the world do you plan on funding this domed stadium you dream of? If you build it they will come is faulty logic at best. There is no need for a dome in Birmingham until the city can support it. Metro Atlanta and metro Birmingham aren't even in the same ballpark.

(07-24-2019 10:35 AM)blazers9911 Wrote:  How in the world do you plan on funding this domed stadium you dream of? If you build it they will come is faulty logic at best. There is no need for a dome in Birmingham until the city can support it. Metro Atlanta and metro Birmingham aren't even in the same ballpark.

The city of B'ham NEEDED to build the MPF in order to attract the larger national conventions and "P5" sports events, but the decision was made to build a smaller single use facility on that land so that "ship has sailed". There will be no beluga whales swimming in B'ham for the foreseeable future(LOL). The city is thereby committed to remain among the minor league cities of the region for at least half of this century. Now if we can get city workers (police, fire, sanitation, etc) and suppliers to accept "minor league" compensation, B'ham will do all right.

The "jury" is still out on what effect this decision will have on realistic ambitions for UAB sports in terms of conference membership and athletic reputation (by the 2030s we should have a definite idea).

UAB is doing everything it can for itself at this point, and has not been in a better place in years. Nobody knows if that will be enough, but we are at least trying.

We cannot afford what you want built. I don’t know how many other ways to put it.

I want to apologize for breaking my rule & encouraging this derailment