How Compensation for Players, Subsidies, and the Revenue Gap Will Alter Realignment
There are 8 of the 65 P schools that are subsidized at amounts beyond 10%: Arizona (11%), Arizona State (18%), Colorado (12%), Utah (15%), Minnesota (11%), Maryland (15%), Rutgers (34%), Virginia (14%).
California has passed a law which goes into effect in 2023. That law will permit players to make money from their likenesses. That goes into effect at precisely the time the Big 10 and SEC will be renewing contracts and a year before the PAC and Big 12 begin to renew theirs which is the same timeline in which their GOR's expire.
This law could put pressure on the Big 10 and SEC to move to paying to maintain competitive advantage for recruits.
This compensation is opposed by the NCAA and this issue could render the NCAA more ineffectual than they already are.
Now couple all of this with what are expected to be large increases in the SEC revenue and incremental increases for the Big 10 where the gap in revenue will be increasing significantly between those two conferences and the PAC and ACC and I would say things could get really interesting.
Here's how it could converge. Right now the biggest reason there is no promotion from the G5 is that every G5 school is subsidized at least by 25% and some a lot more. The only P5 school subsidized more than 18% is Rutgers at 34%. No power conference is going to take a chance on that much red ink. In fact if the SEC and Big 10 move to permit forms of compensation for players it is going to make it that much harder for schools like Rutgers to turn a profit. It could be the perfect tool for winnowing out the under-producers from the power conferences, particularly for smaller private schools.
Assume for a moment that 6 of the 8 schools in the P5 which are presently subsidizing more than 10% of their athletic budget would opt out if faced with more overhead. Now consider some of the more challenged private schools that might opt out as well: Miami, Wake Forest, Duke, Boston College, Pittsburgh, Vanderbilt, and possibly Northwestern. Now we are down to 52 P schools. Oregon State and Washington State struggle to keep up as well so make that 50.
What happens now? Well it's 2023 and the SEC just inked a T1 deal that will take their payouts to 61 million and the Big 10 has gotten a 5% bump for renewing taking their payout to 57 million. The ACC is still locked into the ESPN contract until 2037 and presently it pays about 30 million plus lets say another 5 for the ACCN. The PAC is still stuck around 32 million total and the Big 12 is looking at 38 million. 20 million a year per school for a decade is 200 million they'll be leaving on the table if they don't move.
What happens now? Well the conditions are right for a massive and sudden change within a 2 year period of time.
If the Big 10 loses Maryland and Rutgers who opt out due to debt, they now have 12 slots open. If in the new world the ACC votes to dissolve and they lose 6 schools who opt out: Virginia, Wake Forest, Duke, Miami, Boston College and Pittsburgh that leaves 9 to be absorbed.
I could conceive that the Big 10 would be happy with Notre Dame and Syracuse to round out their East. California, Cal Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, and Washington gives them a West Coast Division. Colorado, Arizona, Kansas and Iowa State are added to Minnesota, and Nebraska to form another and the Big 10 now stands at 24.
The SEC is minus Vanderbilt. They add Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, North Carolina, N.C. State, and Virginia Tech to go along with Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State to get to 24.
Baylor, T.C.U., Kansas State and West Virginia would have some decisions to make.
Big 10:
East: Indiana, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Syracuse
North: Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Wisconsin
South: Arizona, Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska
West: California, Cal Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington
SEC:
East: Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, South Carolina
North: Kentucky, Louisville, North Carolina, N.C. State, Tennessee, Virginia Tech
South: Alabama, Arkansas Auburn, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi St.
West: Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech
Of course if others opted out like North Carolina then West Virginia is ready to go.
Any way you look at it there are way too many catalysts for change lying in wait around 2023 for things to remain the same. But if this kind of movement happens the leverage, the organization, and the benefits of reducing conference overhead duplication will all add to the incentive.
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