Thru 06/25/19:
Per 247:
QB Gavin Hall UT
RB Jevyon Ducker NIU
Receiver Nick Malito UT
OL Kyle Arnoldi WMU
DL Logan Wilson WMU
LB Aaron Washington BGSU
DB Brayden Evans BSU

It's early, but Bowling Green is doing very well under new head coach Scot Loeffler.

These ratings are always interesting. Personally I like to look at the offer lists to try to gauge talent level. These ratings are calculated by some guy watching some highlight tape and looking at combine/camp performances. That’s great but if these guys were the most qualified evaluators, they’d be on CFB staffs to coordinate recruiting.

Of the highest rated guys, it’s interesting how many of them have a few MAC offers and some FCS interest. Meanwhile lower “rated” kids have way more FBS offers including P5 offers. There can be some explanation for this, especially at this stage, but it’s just interesting observation[/quote]

For instance:

Malito is the highest rated commit at .8599

Offers are
Air Force
Toledo
BG
Kent state
And a bunch of FCS

Deandre Bulley

Rating of .8416 (still good obviously but significantly lower than Malito)

Offers are
Akron
Ball state
Boston College
Buffalo
CMU
EMU
Indiana
Iowa State
Kentucky
Kent State
Minnesota
Syracuse
WMU

Looking at those two offer sheets, do you think Malito is significantly better than Bulley?

It's funny they carry the number out to 4 decimal places when in actuality these are just wild-a** guesses.

Yes, I'm sure they are derived from a formula that they're using, and it looks like they're being very thorough with a sophisticated system to produce the number, but the reality is that they're deriving a very specific number from a set of data that is likely just some subjective number pulled from their "analysts"' asses.

It's just the 247, Rivals and ESPN ratings averaged together.

(06-27-2019 01:21 PM)wmubroncopilot Wrote:  It's just the 247, Rivals and ESPN ratings averaged together.

So it's just three subjective numbers pulled from thin air based on a few guy's opinion, averaged together.

(06-27-2019 01:04 PM)eich41 Wrote:  Yes, I'm sure they are derived from a formula that they're using, and it looks like they're being very thorough with a sophisticated system to produce the number, but the reality is that they're deriving a very specific number from a set of data that is likely just some subjective number pulled from their "analysts"' asses.

Yeah, like the last 3 women I dated, a 10 (just kidding), a 6 and a 3 (I met her at 2 a.m. ).

So the average comes out to 6.3333333333333333333333

(06-27-2019 03:13 PM)eich41 Wrote:  

(06-27-2019 01:21 PM)wmubroncopilot Wrote:  It's just the 247, Rivals and ESPN ratings averaged together.

So it's just three subjective numbers pulled from thin air based on a few guy's opinion, averaged together.

(06-27-2019 10:14 AM)eich41 Wrote:  For instance:

Malito is the highest rated commit at .8599

Offers are
Air Force
Toledo
BG
Kent state
And a bunch of FCS

Deandre Bulley

Rating of .8416 (still good obviously but significantly lower than Malito)

Offers are
Akron
Ball state
Boston College
Buffalo
CMU
EMU
Indiana
Iowa State
Kentucky
Kent State
Minnesota
Syracuse NY r
WMU

Looking at those two offer sheets, dor you think Malito is significantly better than Bulley?

Malito 6'2" 205 lbs ran a 4.39 forty time at the Ohio State camp. Had a 21'7" long jump this Spring.
So he's got some speed and explosiveness.
Currently ranked the#27 player in Ohio. Rockets have done pretty well picking out receivers.

(06-27-2019 10:14 AM)eich41 Wrote:  For instance:

Malito is the highest rated commit at .8599

Offers are
Air Force
Toledo
BG
Kent state
And a bunch of FCS

Deandre Bulley

Rating of .8416 (still good obviously but significantly lower than Malito)

Offers are
Akron
Ball state
Boston College
Buffalo
CMU
EMU
Indiana
Iowa State
Kentucky
Kent State
Minnesota
Syracuse
WMU

Looking at those two offer sheets, do you think Malito is significantly better than Bulley?

BTW, this is a 2 star WR's offer list from Toledo's 2019 signing class:
Toledo
Ga St
BGSUX
FAU
Kentucky
Rutgers
S Miss
Syracuse
UCF
USF
P5 offers no guarantee of a high ranking.

(06-27-2019 03:13 PM)eich41 Wrote:  

(06-27-2019 01:21 PM)wmubroncopilot Wrote:  It's just the 247, Rivals and ESPN ratings averaged together.

So it's just three subjective numbers pulled from thin air based on a few guy's opinion, averaged together.

Didn't say otherwise. Just that it's not as esoteric as you made it sound. I do think it's a little silly that they carry it to 4 decimals, although it would make just as much sense to call a ".8552" an 85.52 for example. But whatever.

All that said they're doing a decent job in the big picture. A lot of outlets have looked at this on the national level, and I did a quick and dirty look on the WMU board and came up with a 63% correlation between MAC recruiting rank and winning games over the past 5 years. That's a pretty high number (higher than I thought, and I've always been somewhat of a proponent of these sites).

It's fine if following it isn't your thing, but the evidence doesn't support it being meaningless. More goes into winning (duh) but recruiting is highly important (also duh) and evidence suggests these sites do a reasonable job approximating it.

(06-28-2019 08:42 AM)Boca Rocket Wrote:  

(06-27-2019 10:14 AM)eich41 Wrote:  For instance:

Malito is the highest rated commit at .8599

Offers are
Air Force
Toledo
BG
Kent state
And a bunch of FCS

Deandre Bulley

Rating of .8416 (still good obviously but significantly lower than Malito)

Offers are
Akron
Ball state
Boston College
Buffalo
CMU
EMU
Indiana
Iowa State
Kentucky
Kent State
Minnesota
Syracuse NY r
WMU

Looking at those two offer sheets, dor you think Malito is significantly better than Bulley?

Malito 6'2" 205 lbs ran a 4.39 forty time at the Ohio State camp. Had a 21'7" long jump this Spring.
So he's got some speed and explosiveness.
Currently ranked the#27 player in Ohio. Rockets have done pretty well picking out receivers.

I wasn't trying to belittle Malito at all, He just happened into my example because he is the highest rated player. Not a knock on him at all. To put it simply, IMO I think the number of offers and where the offers are from are probably a better indicator of talent/potential than a rating service. The offers come from coaches whose job it is to identify talent and bring that talent to their football program, and they're paid well to do it. If the recruiting services were better at this process than the coaches, they would be on coaching staffs.

Recruiting isn't an exact science and none of what we're talking about guarantees success or failure for these kids, there are plenty of examples of that littered across Canton. There are also a lot of things that can explain the difference in offers (exposure, committed early, etc.), but generally speaking, I would think most people would rather see their commits be highly recruited with a lower rating than vice versa.

(06-28-2019 08:54 AM)Boca Rocket Wrote:  

(06-27-2019 10:14 AM)eich41 Wrote:  For instance:

Malito is the highest rated commit at .8599

Offers are
Air Force
Toledo
BG
Kent state
And a bunch of FCS

Deandre Bulley

Rating of .8416 (still good obviously but significantly lower than Malito)

Offers are
Akron
Ball state
Boston College
Buffalo
CMU
EMU
Indiana
Iowa State
Kentucky
Kent State
Minnesota
Syracuse
WMU

Looking at those two offer sheets, do you think Malito is significantly better than Bulley?

BTW, this is a 2 star WR's offer list from Toledo's 2019 signing class:
Toledo
Ga St
BGSUX
FAU
Kentucky
Rutgers
S Miss
Syracuse
UCF
USF
P5 offers no guarantee of a high ranking.

This is exactly my point. What do you think is a better gauge of talent, that Dabo Sweeney wants a kid to play for him at Clemson, or that some 25 year old kid at Rivals/24-7/ESPN went to a camp and threw a high rating on a kid because he performed well?

(06-28-2019 11:37 AM)wmubroncopilot Wrote:  

(06-27-2019 03:13 PM)eich41 Wrote:  

(06-27-2019 01:21 PM)wmubroncopilot Wrote:  It's just the 247, Rivals and ESPN ratings averaged together.

So it's just three subjective numbers pulled from thin air based on a few guy's opinion, averaged together.

It's fine if following it isn't your thing, but the evidence doesn't support it being meaningless. More goes into winning (duh) but recruiting is highly important (also duh) and evidence suggests these sites do a reasonable job approximating it.

I wasn't saying it was meaningless, just that I think the opinion of coaches is worth more than the opinion of recruiting analysts. For the most part, the two are going to correlate anyways (although for reasons that we don't need to hatch out here in detail, but just refer to them as "offer/commit inflation").

Dustin Fletcher commits to NIU.
Now top ranked MAC QB commit