(06-24-2019 03:17 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  Seven percent of $62,563,279 is $4,379,429. Meaning that BYU made a little under $4.5 million from all TV and radio deals, including the ESPN contract.
https://lawlessrepublic.com/2017/09/21/b...act-money/

Typical AAC fan, only looking at about 25% of the equation and not even correctly. The actual pay out for AAC schools will be about $5.4M in 2020-21 as a full member, and Football only $4.2M. (The escalator effect means payouts will be above $7.5M in 2030-31, but that is the back half of the contract.) That is the number you have for BYU. Which is the old contract value.

And the BYU number you give is the old contract. The new one is going to coming a couple million higher, due to the usual 20% or so bump (probably more). But look at all the P5 home games. Those are going on ABC and ESPN, which means more money than the bump.

BYU is not giving up all those games with P5 schools that position it better for B12 membership in 2025, nor the local rivalries Boise State and Utah State. The likes Memphis, Tulsa, Tulane, ECU, Temple are not attractive. They already have series scheduled with Houston and USF. So you are not offering them an upgrade at all. Stanford, Baylor , Washington, Washington State, Minnesota, Arizona, Utah, Virginia, et al, are far more attractive opponents for ticket buyers and for ESPN TV than the AAC schedule. Again it looks like BYU will get more money that the AAC on a shorter contract, without the conference entrance or exit fees.

Also BYU is LDS and the money, unless you are talking $10-15M more, is not important enough for them to move conferences. The LDS church throws a lot of money at BYU. They are not hurting in the least financially.

They are a polite (hell) no.

This thread should be rename. " We don't know s#!+ about the AAC but let's all spew every stupid know nothing hateful opinion about it and call it facts".

(06-24-2019 04:14 PM)Tigersmoke4 Wrote:  This thread should be rename. " We don't know s#!+ about the AAC but let's all spew every stupid know nothing hateful opinion about it and call it facts".

And this would be different from every other thread about every other conference/school how?

No reason for AAC to do anything.

Any candidate NOW will still be there in 5 years.

Wait for the new bowl/CFP contract. If the Big 12 stays at 10, then use the 4 years of playing at 11 as a guide to see if there are any #12's that would be worth asking.

If the Big 12 expands, then the AAC will need multiple replacements (if the AAC is raided below 10). But then you will be able to judge better what areas you need to backfill, and gives another 4 years of data on potential candidates.

for non-football sports, I'd absolutely love for Missouri State to get into a conference with our former conference mates Tulsa and Wichita St. Them, plus Memphis are all just as close as any of our current conference mates.

(06-24-2019 02:47 PM)Big Frog II Wrote:  I would stay at 11. No divisions. Can still have a football championship game between the top 2. 20 conference basketball games.

Would not that require a 10 game conference schedule?

(06-24-2019 11:26 AM)10thMountain Wrote:  Poll is too Eastern heavy

Navy will get moved to the East so they need someone in the West that can add some sizzle and bring a new market

they’ll go after whoever says yes first in this order:

BYU
Boise
Colorado State
Air Force
UNLV

After BYU or Boise who I doubt say yes I don’t think it’s viable with the MWC schools.

Boise had a hard time Parking it’s non fb in the Big West even with San Diego St helping when they almost joined earlier this decade. Tough sell there now and they’d probably need a partner to join with them like the Aztecs again.

AFA, CSU, and UNLV have little upside that wouldn’t be eaten up by travel cost or loss of traditional rivals and unlike the first two won’t be in CFB NY6 contention or driven as much by nationally relevant exposure.

I think the best case for the AAC is if they can pair Army FB with VCU or Dayton non-fb. Tough pull but the best semi realistic one I see.

After that I could see a CUSA school.

(06-24-2019 05:10 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  

(06-24-2019 02:47 PM)Big Frog II Wrote:  I would stay at 11. No divisions. Can still have a football championship game between the top 2. 20 conference basketball games.

Would not that require a 10 game conference schedule?

Not if the AAC can get a waiver to skip 1 of the round-robin games in the larger, 6-team division.

BYU is a very real possibility. AAC offers them more money, more exposure, access to access bowl & a chance at a championship, better platform to be in position to ultimately acquire power status. Negotiations are ongoing. the reason it's likely is it actually is a beneficial union for all 3 parties including ESPN but there are lots of details to work out in the interim.

(06-24-2019 05:57 PM)Indiana Bones Wrote:  BYU is a very real possibility. AAC offers them more money, more exposure, access to access bowl & a chance at a championship, better platform to be in position to ultimately acquire power status. Negotiations are ongoing. the reason it's likely is it actually is a beneficial union for all 3 parties including ESPN but there are lots of details to work out in the interim.

BYU's quality of schedule would go down. You aren't getting a chance at a national championship from the AAC.

(06-24-2019 06:01 PM)SMUfan Wrote:  

(06-24-2019 05:57 PM)Indiana Bones Wrote:  BYU is a very real possibility. AAC offers them more money, more exposure, access to access bowl & a chance at a championship, better platform to be in position to ultimately acquire power status. Negotiations are ongoing. the reason it's likely is it actually is a beneficial union for all 3 parties including ESPN but there are lots of details to work out in the interim.

BYU's quality of schedule would go down. You aren't getting a chance at a national championship from the AAC.

Lets be real, BYU isn't gonna get a national championship regardless without power status. The year they won it in the 80s was kinda bogus to begin with. They beat a .500 Big Ten team in the Holiday Bowl that year. The CFB landscape has changed a lot since then. BYU is currently recruiting at avg to below avg AAC standards as is.

(06-24-2019 05:36 PM)Crayton Wrote:  

(06-24-2019 05:10 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  

(06-24-2019 02:47 PM)Big Frog II Wrote:  I would stay at 11. No divisions. Can still have a football championship game between the top 2. 20 conference basketball games.

Would not that require a 10 game conference schedule?

Not if the AAC can get a waiver to skip 1 of the round-robin games in the larger, 6-team division.

Yes, but the waiver will unlikely be approved since this is not a hardship for the AAC. The AAC is getting a years notice. I could see a waiver for one year if a team could not join until 2021 but I a long term waiver is doubtful. Especially if the league is deciding to stay at 11 because it would benefit the league. I imagine other conferences might have issue with the waiver. Other would be, the CCG changes next season to allow for non divisional without round robin starting in 2021.

Forget the west coast schools including BYU. They have no place to park their non-football sports. New Mexico State will not let them into the WAC unless the schools are willing to restart FBS WAC.

There are bad blood between the AAC schools with Army. Army screwed them after Army left CUSA.

The top choice is ODU with a larger tv market, better recruits for basketball, and is a new state.

UAB is out of the picture. Nobody wants them because of the BoT are too much tide into U. of Alabama. BoT will try and kill all of UAB's sports so that they do not climb up to the next level.

ODU football/basketball>Georgia State


I already list the cons of Army, BYU MWC and UAB.

Marshall=small tv market takes them out of the discussion.

FIU and FAU would be too many mouths to feed in Florida.

North Texas, Rice, UTSA, and Texas State will be the same as the state of Florida. It would give Florida and Texas too much voting power.

ODU have all the check marks in their favor.

Southern Mississippi could have a shot, but the spending is not there.

UMass. was only in the picture as a travel partner for UConn for all sports. That is gone now.

Northern Illinois is too far out by themselves unless you add Ball State and Toledo to bridge the gap.

Georgia State does not have the history to even get a look at, but Georgia Southern's football is much better.

South Alabama could leap frog over UAB because they are divorced from Alabama and Auburn's influence.

Arkansas State could count Jonesboro and Little Rock's tv markets.

Appalachian State and Charlotte can't get in until ECU gets a called from a P5 conference.

I do not think any FCS schools could fit until they spend more cash on sports.

The top choice would be ODU over anybody else.

The AAC can invite whoever they like, but they're not going to get any FB-playing teams that they desire. So they likely stand pat at 11. A solution to the problem of an odd number of FB members may soon present itself if, say, Navy decides to bow out.

BTW, if Old Dominion is in serious consideration, a school that restarted a long-dead FB program from scratch just a few years ago, why not instead give Wichita State a chance to get a FB program up and running again? If they go for it, there's less difference in the per-school payout for the other teams than adding a new school. If not, then no big deal.

(06-24-2019 03:26 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  

(06-24-2019 02:45 PM)PicksUp Wrote:  I don’t see Air Force making the move. Is Army willing to try a FB conference again? I’m most intrigued by the possibility of Navy gradually pulling out from their FB membership. The AAC decision will hinge on whatever ESPN dictates!

Navy has been one of the most outspoken advocates of the AAC, touting the AAC every time we hear from their AD.

Navy has to watch it, or they could get the AAC pregnant

(06-24-2019 08:55 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  I'm betting no one unless one of BYU, Army, or Air Force is finally interested (and my guess is all still say no).

Brett McMurphy agrees with you, but no Air Force

https://twitter.com/Brett_McMurphy/statu...0796231680

Quote:Brett McMurphy Verified account
@Brett_McMurphy

UConn “delusional” if it wants to be AAC football-only member, source told @Stadium. MAC & C-USA also not interested so Huskies have to be FBS independent. Army & BYU top candidates for AAC, but league may stay at 11 unless ESPN sees more value w/12 teams

10:55 AM - 24 Jun 2019

(06-24-2019 05:10 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  

(06-24-2019 02:47 PM)Big Frog II Wrote:  I would stay at 11. No divisions. Can still have a football championship game between the top 2. 20 conference basketball games.

Would not that require a 10 game conference schedule?

Yup. The AAC will have to deal with uneven divisions and a pain in the butt schedule until a obvious replacement emerges from the field. BYU aint happening. Air Force or Army are possibilities. Maybe Boise? They clearly add value but would be a huge outlier. Otherwise, Im not sure anyone else makes a lot of sense right now.

(06-24-2019 06:51 PM)EvilVodka Wrote:  

(06-24-2019 03:26 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  

(06-24-2019 02:45 PM)PicksUp Wrote:  I don’t see Air Force making the move. Is Army willing to try a FB conference again? I’m most intrigued by the possibility of Navy gradually pulling out from their FB membership. The AAC decision will hinge on whatever ESPN dictates!

Navy has been one of the most outspoken advocates of the AAC, touting the AAC every time we hear from their AD.

Navy has to watch it, or they could get the AAC pregnant

But isn't that what seamen, do?

AAC really should go after App State (Football Only)/VCU Olympic Sports. App State is a football school. An incredible fan base. Actually, the are what ECU football use to be. They will play anywhere anytime philosophy. They are program that expects to win football titles. I think the AAC would be getting a team that would exceed all their expectations. App State will move the needle if given the chance, AAC just has to realize the are getting a first round pick in last round. Every opportunity to step up, App State has done it.

VCU Basketball - Does anymore need said.

Of course Navy will want no new schools. It’s an even better and bigger share for them.

If the AAC doesn’t expand even for the basketball loss, I think we’ll be watching some fragment conferences emerge between them and B12. Staying put just for money doesn’t make the football better, and the basketball loss becomes all the more obvious.

How long until Wichita has buyer’s remorse?