(09-23-2019 08:27 AM)mtmedlin Wrote:  Lets look at teh candidates:

BYU - Still adding more games to schedule. Shows no signs of joining. All actions point to continued independence through 2025. Id guess their chance of joining at less than 1%.

Army - Could join anytime if they wanted. They have nothing stopping them and it would have been announced by now if there was any interest. Id guess chance of joining to be less than 5%.

Air Force - Easily could switch. May be waiting to see what offer the MWC gets before ending their long lasting relationship. The additional monies would be nice, but not necessary because they are a government supported institute. They turned down opportunities for series discussion with the Big 12. They are unique in that they value their history more than income. Id guess their likelihood of joining to be less than 5%.

CSU - Not much limiting them from leaving, but there are questions as to their value. I personally love CSU since I see them as a very close fit to the majority of the institutions in the AAC and they have invested heavily, BUT their market is massively split and smaller, they havent had massive success and their viewership numbers have not been great. They may want in, but I am not 100% certain they bring enough value to not dilute which is a no-go. Id guess their chance of joining at less than 10%

SDSU - They want to join and we like them, but that is a massive difference in geography and to make it work, we would need 3 western members... and I dont think they are out there. A move would be contingent on getting Boise and then 1 others (likely Air Force). I am not certain the networks are ready to kill the MWC... yet. So I doubt this would happen. Their Football has dropped off a bit and their Bball hasnt been killing it. Their viewership numbers are mediocre at best and travel costs for the rest of the conference are insane. They could be football only, but do they bring enough value to cover all the additional costs? Boise St - They may want to join but are waiting to see the final offer from the MWC. They would have to find a conference for their non football sports, which may be hard. Not a lot of conferences looking for a really mediocre sports program that is located in the middle of nowhere. I doubt the AAC is willing to take them all sports, so they may have a real problem. Id guess they will make their decision once the final MWC numbers are announced. Id guess their chance of joining at les than 5%.

Boise St - They may want to join but are waiting to see the final offer from the MWC. They would have to find a conference for their non football sports, which may be hard. Not a lot of conferences looking for a really mediocre sports program that is located in the middle of nowhere. I doubt the AAC is willing to take them all sports, so they may have a real problem. Id guess they will make their decision once the final MWC numbers are announced. Id guess their chance of joining at 33%.

Well, I'll be. We actually agree on something.

I'd just respond to your Boise comment by noting that the Summit is probably the landing place for their Olympic sports. They're not particularly stable or well established and have lost a few of their eastern teams recently.

Otherwise there's the WAC, but I really doubt Boise will want to resort to that. It's more established than it was when we were going through this several years ago, but probably still at the very bottom of their list.

But I also don't know that the AAC wants to add Boise. If we were P6 (AQ like the Big East), then I think Boise makes a lot of sense. We'd be guaranteed a top bowl and be trying to put together a strength of schedule for the CFP. But since all we're playing for is the NY6 bid, we'd arguably be making it that much harder to get that by creating a murderer's row in both divisions and cannibalizing each other. Additionally, removing Boise from the MWC makes it much easier for San Diego St to run through the conference undefeated.

Bottom line: unless/until the CFP committee starts rewarding SoS in the NY6 bid instead of just being undefeated (see Western Michigan), I think we may be shooting ourselves in the foot to add Boise.

(09-23-2019 08:27 AM)mtmedlin Wrote:  Lets look at teh candidates:

BYU - Still adding more games to schedule. Shows no signs of joining. All actions point to continued independence through 2025. Id guess their chance of joining at less than 1%.

Army - Could join anytime if they wanted. They have nothing stopping them and it would have been announced by now if there was any interest. Id guess chance of joining to be less than 5%.

Air Force - Easily could switch. May be waiting to see what offer the MWC gets before ending their long lasting relationship. The additional monies would be nice, but not necessary because they are a government supported institute. They turned down opportunities for series discussion with the Big 12. They are unique in that they value their history more than income. Id guess their likelihood of joining to be less than 5%.

CSU - Not much limiting them from leaving, but there are questions as to their value. I personally love CSU since I see them as a very close fit to the majority of the institutions in the AAC and they have invested heavily, BUT their market is massively split and smaller, they havent had massive success and their viewership numbers have not been great. They may want in, but I am not 100% certain they bring enough value to not dilute which is a no-go. Id guess their chance of joining at less than 10%

SDSU - They want to join and we like them, but that is a massive difference in geography and to make it work, we would need 3 western members... and I dont think they are out there. A move would be contingent on getting Boise and then 1 others (likely Air Force). I am not certain the networks are ready to kill the MWC... yet. So I doubt this would happen. Their Football has dropped off a bit and their Bball hasnt been killing it. Their viewership numbers are mediocre at best and travel costs for the rest of the conference are insane. They could be football only, but do they bring enough value to cover all the additional costs? Boise St - They may want to join but are waiting to see the final offer from the MWC. They would have to find a conference for their non football sports, which may be hard. Not a lot of conferences looking for a really mediocre sports program that is located in the middle of nowhere. I doubt the AAC is willing to take them all sports, so they may have a real problem. Id guess they will make their decision once the final MWC numbers are announced. Id guess their chance of joining at les than 5%.

Boise St - They may want to join but are waiting to see the final offer from the MWC. They would have to find a conference for their non football sports, which may be hard. Not a lot of conferences looking for a really mediocre sports program that is located in the middle of nowhere. I doubt the AAC is willing to take them all sports, so they may have a real problem. Id guess they will make their decision once the final MWC numbers are announced. Id guess their chance of joining at 33%.

You do realize that bsu paid money to get out of the aac.

The relationship between AAC and Boise State is poisoned and will be for a long time. That band will only get back together if it’s a matter of survival. And right now, both are surviving just fine without the other.

(09-23-2019 08:59 AM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  

(09-23-2019 08:27 AM)mtmedlin Wrote:  Lets look at teh candidates:

BYU - Still adding more games to schedule. Shows no signs of joining. All actions point to continued independence through 2025. Id guess their chance of joining at less than 1%.

Army - Could join anytime if they wanted. They have nothing stopping them and it would have been announced by now if there was any interest. Id guess chance of joining to be less than 5%.

Air Force - Easily could switch. May be waiting to see what offer the MWC gets before ending their long lasting relationship. The additional monies would be nice, but not necessary because they are a government supported institute. They turned down opportunities for series discussion with the Big 12. They are unique in that they value their history more than income. Id guess their likelihood of joining to be less than 5%.

CSU - Not much limiting them from leaving, but there are questions as to their value. I personally love CSU since I see them as a very close fit to the majority of the institutions in the AAC and they have invested heavily, BUT their market is massively split and smaller, they havent had massive success and their viewership numbers have not been great. They may want in, but I am not 100% certain they bring enough value to not dilute which is a no-go. Id guess their chance of joining at less than 10%

SDSU - They want to join and we like them, but that is a massive difference in geography and to make it work, we would need 3 western members... and I dont think they are out there. A move would be contingent on getting Boise and then 1 others (likely Air Force). I am not certain the networks are ready to kill the MWC... yet. So I doubt this would happen. Their Football has dropped off a bit and their Bball hasnt been killing it. Their viewership numbers are mediocre at best and travel costs for the rest of the conference are insane. They could be football only, but do they bring enough value to cover all the additional costs? Boise St - They may want to join but are waiting to see the final offer from the MWC. They would have to find a conference for their non football sports, which may be hard. Not a lot of conferences looking for a really mediocre sports program that is located in the middle of nowhere. I doubt the AAC is willing to take them all sports, so they may have a real problem. Id guess they will make their decision once the final MWC numbers are announced. Id guess their chance of joining at les than 5%.

Boise St - They may want to join but are waiting to see the final offer from the MWC. They would have to find a conference for their non football sports, which may be hard. Not a lot of conferences looking for a really mediocre sports program that is located in the middle of nowhere. I doubt the AAC is willing to take them all sports, so they may have a real problem. Id guess they will make their decision once the final MWC numbers are announced. Id guess their chance of joining at 33%.

Well, I'll be. We actually agree on something.

I'd just respond to your Boise comment by noting that the Summit is probably the landing place for their Olympic sports. They're not particularly stable or well established and have lost a few of their eastern teams recently.

Otherwise there's the WAC, but I really doubt Boise will want to resort to that. It's more established than it was when we were going through this several years ago, but probably still at the very bottom of their list.

But I also don't know that the AAC wants to add Boise. If we were P6 (AQ like the Big East), then I think Boise makes a lot of sense. We'd be guaranteed a top bowl and be trying to put together a strength of schedule for the CFP. But since all we're playing for is the NY6 bid, we'd arguably be making it that much harder to get that by creating a murderer's row in both divisions and cannibalizing each other. Additionally, removing Boise from the MWC makes it much easier for San Diego St to run through the conference undefeated.

Bottom line: unless/until the CFP committee starts rewarding SoS in the NY6 bid instead of just being undefeated (see Western Michigan), I think we may be shooting ourselves in the foot to add Boise.

I find it an interesting coincidence that the overall goal of the AAC is quite similar to what the MWC was trying to accomplish back when their big-three was TCU, Utah and BYU and they were trying to get power conference status and an auto-bid.

Back then BSU very badly wanted to get into the MWC. A clear upgrade in conference, and it seemed like it might be just enough to elevate the conference's football high enough that it would leave the then P6 no choice but to give the conference auto-bid status.

Under the rules that were available at the time, adding BSU still would have left the MWC just short as they were dragged down by a couple of truly terrible bottom-feeders in the conference.

Situation is different now. Which is the stronger conference between the MWC and the American looks to be a bit cyclical. MWC graded out higher last year and so far this year. The previous two years before last year, it was the AAC. But the point is it wouldn't be a clear conference upgrade for BSU like it was going from the WAC to the MWC.

If you're talking about just wanting to get the G5 NY6 bowl bid, you very well could argue that adding BSU doesn't help because it just makes it more likely that the stronger American teams cannibalize each other and let somebody from the Sunbelt, MAC or CUSA sneak in.

However, if you're really serious about wanting to get power conference status, BSU makes the most sense out of any program in the country right now.

On the flip side, BSU joining the American without a true western division and with the pay being pretty similar doesn't make a ton of sense at the moment. OTOH, if the American really were to acquire power conference status, then the tradeoff becomes much more worth it.

So, really, the three questions boil down to:

1. How badly does the American want power conference status?
2. Can they get there without BSU?
3. Does adding BSU move the needle enough to get the American there?

I'm guessing the answers, from reading this board are:

1. Extremely badly.
2. No. Even with a historic UCF run, the overall strength of the conference - and more importantly the sustainability in the absence of such a historic run since those sorts of things are hard to replicate - the AAC wasn't able to get there. I doubt very much that the conference can see enough growth through internal improvement alone to really get P6 status.
3. I don't know, but it's probably the only way the marriage happens is if both sides are convinced that the move elevates the conference enough to make it happen.

(09-23-2019 10:15 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  The relationship between AAC and Boise State is poisoned and will be for a long time. That band will only get back together if it’s a matter of survival. And right now, both are surviving just fine without the other.

Anyone who has followed bigeast/AAC expansion should know this ^^^

No way on earth a marriage between AAC and boise state ever happens... And other than Air Force if the AAC expands here hope no other mwc member is ever invited.

(09-23-2019 10:15 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  The relationship between AAC and Boise State is poisoned and will be for a long time. That band will only get back together if it’s a matter of survival. And right now, both are surviving just fine without the other.

AD and Presidents are far less emotional than online fans. Boise St got a reduced exit fee from $5 million down to $2.3 and with payment terms... we worked with them to make it easier. Thats not exactly the actions of someone who is holding a massive grudge.

Simple fact is Boise St an SDSU agreed to come over when there was still a chance of a decent contract. We had $11 million a year on the table until Pitt screwed us along with Cuse. It was still rumored to be closer to $7 million until we lost Lville and the Big East left.

I dont think many were shocked when Boise backed out. It no longer made sense for them and it would have cost them more to come over. they did better for their school by staying put. No president is going to hold a grudge over that because everything that happened after Boise agreed to come over was not their fault.

Now, there may be an opportunity for the AAC to kill off their only real competitor... and taking Boise does that.

Long term, its in our best interest to kill the MWC. Why not go ahead and forgive and forget, take their best asset and watch their tv deal fall under a million a year.

(09-23-2019 08:59 AM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  

(09-23-2019 08:27 AM)mtmedlin Wrote:  Lets look at teh candidates:

BYU - Still adding more games to schedule. Shows no signs of joining. All actions point to continued independence through 2025. Id guess their chance of joining at less than 1%.

Army - Could join anytime if they wanted. They have nothing stopping them and it would have been announced by now if there was any interest. Id guess chance of joining to be less than 5%.

Air Force - Easily could switch. May be waiting to see what offer the MWC gets before ending their long lasting relationship. The additional monies would be nice, but not necessary because they are a government supported institute. They turned down opportunities for series discussion with the Big 12. They are unique in that they value their history more than income. Id guess their likelihood of joining to be less than 5%.

CSU - Not much limiting them from leaving, but there are questions as to their value. I personally love CSU since I see them as a very close fit to the majority of the institutions in the AAC and they have invested heavily, BUT their market is massively split and smaller, they havent had massive success and their viewership numbers have not been great. They may want in, but I am not 100% certain they bring enough value to not dilute which is a no-go. Id guess their chance of joining at less than 10%

SDSU - They want to join and we like them, but that is a massive difference in geography and to make it work, we would need 3 western members... and I dont think they are out there. A move would be contingent on getting Boise and then 1 others (likely Air Force). I am not certain the networks are ready to kill the MWC... yet. So I doubt this would happen. Their Football has dropped off a bit and their Bball hasnt been killing it. Their viewership numbers are mediocre at best and travel costs for the rest of the conference are insane. They could be football only, but do they bring enough value to cover all the additional costs? Boise St - They may want to join but are waiting to see the final offer from the MWC. They would have to find a conference for their non football sports, which may be hard. Not a lot of conferences looking for a really mediocre sports program that is located in the middle of nowhere. I doubt the AAC is willing to take them all sports, so they may have a real problem. Id guess they will make their decision once the final MWC numbers are announced. Id guess their chance of joining at les than 5%.

Boise St - They may want to join but are waiting to see the final offer from the MWC. They would have to find a conference for their non football sports, which may be hard. Not a lot of conferences looking for a really mediocre sports program that is located in the middle of nowhere. I doubt the AAC is willing to take them all sports, so they may have a real problem. Id guess they will make their decision once the final MWC numbers are announced. Id guess their chance of joining at 33%.

Well, I'll be. We actually agree on something.

I'd just respond to your Boise comment by noting that the Summit is probably the landing place for their Olympic sports. They're not particularly stable or well established and have lost a few of their eastern teams recently.

Otherwise there's the WAC, but I really doubt Boise will want to resort to that. It's more established than it was when we were going through this several years ago, but probably still at the very bottom of their list.

But I also don't know that the AAC wants to add Boise. If we were P6 (AQ like the Big East), then I think Boise makes a lot of sense. We'd be guaranteed a top bowl and be trying to put together a strength of schedule for the CFP. But since all we're playing for is the NY6 bid, we'd arguably be making it that much harder to get that by creating a murderer's row in both divisions and cannibalizing each other. Additionally, removing Boise from the MWC makes it much easier for San Diego St to run through the conference undefeated.

Bottom line: unless/until the CFP committee starts rewarding SoS in the NY6 bid instead of just being undefeated (see Western Michigan), I think we may be shooting ourselves in the foot to add Boise.

Well keep that between the two of us. Id hate to see you lose respect in the UCF community for agreeing with me!

Ya, i think the WAC would be their home if they did, but I think they are concerned because their Bball is starting to pick up and they hope to be better than a one trick pony.

You are right about it hurting us in terms of the Access bowl. The second that the playoffs move to 8 games and the AAC has a seat at the table, then I think well kill off the MWC.

Personally, if it were me, I would take Boise St just to kill the value of the MWC. That then leaves the rest of them to be easy pickens. From there I take Air Force to strengthen the west... last step is harder but I would try for Army (balances Boise St football only). If they dont jump them I look to SDSU or CSU. I think they take SDSU since its an entirely new market but CSU would be an easier all sports add.

Either way, at that point the MWC is dead. No other conference would be even close in terms of money, viewership or anything. There would be a definitive P6 and G3.

(09-23-2019 12:58 PM)mtmedlin Wrote:  

(09-23-2019 10:15 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  The relationship between AAC and Boise State is poisoned and will be for a long time. That band will only get back together if it’s a matter of survival. And right now, both are surviving just fine without the other.

AD and Presidents are far less emotional than online fans. Boise St got a reduced exit fee from $5 million down to $2.3 and with payment terms... we worked with them to make it easier. Thats not exactly the actions of someone who is holding a massive grudge.

Simple fact is Boise St an SDSU agreed to come over when there was still a chance of a decent contract. We had $11 million a year on the table until Pitt screwed us along with Cuse. It was still rumored to be closer to $7 million until we lost Lville and the Big East left.

I dont think many were shocked when Boise backed out. It no longer made sense for them and it would have cost them more to come over. they did better for their school by staying put. No president is going to hold a grudge over that because everything that happened after Boise agreed to come over was not their fault.

Now, there may be an opportunity for the AAC to kill off their only real competitor... and taking Boise does that.

Long term, its in our best interest to kill the MWC. Why not go ahead and forgive and forget, take their best asset and watch their tv deal fall under a million a year.

Yep, yep and yep. Very good post.

I'd add to the list that, from a BSU fan's perspective, we were expecting a bit more western team backfills for the teams that left.

It would make a lot of sense for each conference to poach the best programs from the other because it both strengthens their own conference while diminishing their nearest competitor. I think the issues are twofold:

1. Because of the geography and the relative parity between the two conferences, the conference that wants to poach the other needs to come up with a very compelling reason why the teams from the other side of the country would flip. Money is the most logical reason.

2. The imbalance between east and west divisions. If the AAC were to poach teams from the MWC, those teams would be at a competitive disadvantage given the small number of AAC teams in the west and vice versa if the MWC were to try and poach the AAC.

(09-23-2019 11:21 AM)nocoolnamejim Wrote:  

(09-23-2019 08:59 AM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  

(09-23-2019 08:27 AM)mtmedlin Wrote:  Lets look at teh candidates:

BYU - Still adding more games to schedule. Shows no signs of joining. All actions point to continued independence through 2025. Id guess their chance of joining at less than 1%.

Army - Could join anytime if they wanted. They have nothing stopping them and it would have been announced by now if there was any interest. Id guess chance of joining to be less than 5%.

Air Force - Easily could switch. May be waiting to see what offer the MWC gets before ending their long lasting relationship. The additional monies would be nice, but not necessary because they are a government supported institute. They turned down opportunities for series discussion with the Big 12. They are unique in that they value their history more than income. Id guess their likelihood of joining to be less than 5%.

CSU - Not much limiting them from leaving, but there are questions as to their value. I personally love CSU since I see them as a very close fit to the majority of the institutions in the AAC and they have invested heavily, BUT their market is massively split and smaller, they havent had massive success and their viewership numbers have not been great. They may want in, but I am not 100% certain they bring enough value to not dilute which is a no-go. Id guess their chance of joining at less than 10%

SDSU - They want to join and we like them, but that is a massive difference in geography and to make it work, we would need 3 western members... and I dont think they are out there. A move would be contingent on getting Boise and then 1 others (likely Air Force). I am not certain the networks are ready to kill the MWC... yet. So I doubt this would happen. Their Football has dropped off a bit and their Bball hasnt been killing it. Their viewership numbers are mediocre at best and travel costs for the rest of the conference are insane. They could be football only, but do they bring enough value to cover all the additional costs? Boise St - They may want to join but are waiting to see the final offer from the MWC. They would have to find a conference for their non football sports, which may be hard. Not a lot of conferences looking for a really mediocre sports program that is located in the middle of nowhere. I doubt the AAC is willing to take them all sports, so they may have a real problem. Id guess they will make their decision once the final MWC numbers are announced. Id guess their chance of joining at les than 5%.

Boise St - They may want to join but are waiting to see the final offer from the MWC. They would have to find a conference for their non football sports, which may be hard. Not a lot of conferences looking for a really mediocre sports program that is located in the middle of nowhere. I doubt the AAC is willing to take them all sports, so they may have a real problem. Id guess they will make their decision once the final MWC numbers are announced. Id guess their chance of joining at 33%.

Well, I'll be. We actually agree on something.

I'd just respond to your Boise comment by noting that the Summit is probably the landing place for their Olympic sports. They're not particularly stable or well established and have lost a few of their eastern teams recently.

Otherwise there's the WAC, but I really doubt Boise will want to resort to that. It's more established than it was when we were going through this several years ago, but probably still at the very bottom of their list.

But I also don't know that the AAC wants to add Boise. If we were P6 (AQ like the Big East), then I think Boise makes a lot of sense. We'd be guaranteed a top bowl and be trying to put together a strength of schedule for the CFP. But since all we're playing for is the NY6 bid, we'd arguably be making it that much harder to get that by creating a murderer's row in both divisions and cannibalizing each other. Additionally, removing Boise from the MWC makes it much easier for San Diego St to run through the conference undefeated.

Bottom line: unless/until the CFP committee starts rewarding SoS in the NY6 bid instead of just being undefeated (see Western Michigan), I think we may be shooting ourselves in the foot to add Boise.

I find it an interesting coincidence that the overall goal of the AAC is quite similar to what the MWC was trying to accomplish back when their big-three was TCU, Utah and BYU and they were trying to get power conference status and an auto-bid.

Back then BSU very badly wanted to get into the MWC. A clear upgrade in conference, and it seemed like it might be just enough to elevate the conference's football high enough that it would leave the then P6 no choice but to give the conference auto-bid status.

Under the rules that were available at the time, adding BSU still would have left the MWC just short as they were dragged down by a couple of truly terrible bottom-feeders in the conference.

Situation is different now. Which is the stronger conference between the MWC and the American looks to be a bit cyclical. MWC graded out higher last year and so far this year. The previous two years before last year, it was the AAC. But the point is it wouldn't be a clear conference upgrade for BSU like it was going from the WAC to the MWC.

If you're talking about just wanting to get the G5 NY6 bowl bid, you very well could argue that adding BSU doesn't help because it just makes it more likely that the stronger American teams cannibalize each other and let somebody from the Sunbelt, MAC or CUSA sneak in.

However, if you're really serious about wanting to get power conference status, BSU makes the most sense out of any program in the country right now.

On the flip side, BSU joining the American without a true western division and with the pay being pretty similar doesn't make a ton of sense at the moment. OTOH, if the American really were to acquire power conference status, then the tradeoff becomes much more worth it.

So, really, the three questions boil down to:

1. How badly does the American want power conference status?
2. Can they get there without BSU?
3. Does adding BSU move the needle enough to get the American there?

I'm guessing the answers, from reading this board are:

1. Extremely badly.
2. No. Even with a historic UCF run, the overall strength of the conference - and more importantly the sustainability in the absence of such a historic run since those sorts of things are hard to replicate - the AAC wasn't able to get there. I doubt very much that the conference can see enough growth through internal improvement alone to really get P6 status.
3. I don't know, but it's probably the only way the marriage happens is if both sides are convinced that the move elevates the conference enough to make it happen.

The difference is that the BCS had a published formula whereby a conference could qualify for AQ status. P5 status (the current equivalent of AQ) is decided by ESPN and how much they'll pay for a conference and for a major bowl game in the NY6 to serve as the anchor for the conference. ESPN could snap their fingers tomorrow and decide the AAC or the MWC or the Sun Belt is a P6. They could also tell the AAC to raid Boise, Colo St., and BYU and that the new TV contract will be $15m/yr plus the Cotton Bowl will now be our anchor bowl. They could also expand the NY6 to be the NY7 and add, for instance, the Citrus Bowl, to be our anchor instead.

It's not like the BCS era where there's a clear, objective formula that drives power status.

[/quote]P5 status (the current equivalent of AQ) is decided by ESPN and how much they'll pay for a conference and for a major bowl game in the NY6 to serve as the anchor for the conference. ESPN could snap their fingers tomorrow and decide the AAC or the MWC or the Sun Belt is a P6. They could also tell the AAC to raid Boise, Colo St., and BYU and that the new TV contract will be $15m/yr plus the Cotton Bowl will now be our anchor bowl. They could also expand the NY6 to be the NY7 and add, for instance, the Citrus Bowl, to be our anchor instead. [/quote]

Agree that ESPN is in the driver's seat.

One thing sometimes ignored is that ESPN loses part of its profit and the AAC loses some of its overall market share and influence without the sizable UConn/NE market.

The fact that we know a bunch of schools, including some MWC schools have shown interest, and yet nary a word has been spoken through official channels may suggest either that they are not close to a potential agreement, or that there are some intensive conversations taking place, in which case the silence is deafening.

If SDSU definitely wants in, with the largest MWC market, it would seem like a slam dunk for ESPN, given that they would be trading a BB school for a FB & BB school and replacing the upper northeastern market with the southern california market and expanding the AAC footprint in a massive way, making it the first/only major coast-to-coast conference in the nation.

Adding SDSU for all sports - or potentially for FB and BB only - could give the AAC the kind of boost it needs to become a consensus "Power" conference, although ESPN might be able to retain the agreed-upon 12 year package, with minor modifications.

Adding SDSU for FB and VCU for non-FB sports might put the AAC in an even stronger position for Power status, given VCU's location and prowess in MBB. But if SDSU is interested, they may want all sports or at least both FB and MBB in.

(09-23-2019 11:37 AM)BigHouston Wrote:  

(09-23-2019 10:15 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  The relationship between AAC and Boise State is poisoned and will be for a long time. That band will only get back together if it’s a matter of survival. And right now, both are surviving just fine without the other.

Anyone who has followed bigeast/AAC expansion should know this ^^^

No way on earth a marriage between AAC and boise state ever happens... And other than Air Force if the AAC expands here hope no other mwc member is ever invited.

^^^ This is spot on ^^^

As much as would like for SDSU to finally be in the AAC, it just doesn't seem to be in the cards.

SDSU "not in the cards?" They have shown interest in joining the AAC.

Perhaps the geographical distance is too great for an all-sports membership from the standpoint of the current AAC members, but a FB only membership should be workable, if SDSU is willing to go FB-only in the AAC.

(09-23-2019 03:51 PM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  The difference is that the BCS had a published formula whereby a conference could qualify for AQ status. P5 status (the current equivalent of AQ) is decided by ESPN and how much they'll pay for a conference and for a major bowl game in the NY6 to serve as the anchor for the conference. ESPN could snap their fingers tomorrow and decide the AAC or the MWC or the Sun Belt is a P6. They could also tell the AAC to raid Boise, Colo St., and BYU and that the new TV contract will be $15m/yr plus the Cotton Bowl will now be our anchor bowl. They could also expand the NY6 to be the NY7 and add, for instance, the Citrus Bowl, to be our anchor instead.

It's not like the BCS era where there's a clear, objective formula that drives power status.

Agreed. But, generally speaking, I think that it's likely that ESPN would try and maintain some semblance of making sense if they were going to arbitrarily decide to declare a conference a Power conference due to some sort of addition.

For example, while ESPN COULD in theory have the American add, say, Colorado State and Air Force and declare that the resulting conference is now a power conference, it would be a hard sale to make.

More to the point, I doubt that adding those two teams makes a new TV contract worth $15M per year. Of the two, I think Air Force would probably drive more value since the service academies will always have fans all over the nation, but it's still not going to drive enough viewership to be worth handing out $15M contracts per team, per year.

Basically, the financial numbers are unlikely to be there for the creation of any sort of new power conference by just adding any (fill in the blank) combination of teams.

(09-23-2019 05:04 PM)nocoolnamejim Wrote:  

(09-23-2019 03:51 PM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  The difference is that the BCS had a published formula whereby a conference could qualify for AQ status. P5 status (the current equivalent of AQ) is decided by ESPN and how much they'll pay for a conference and for a major bowl game in the NY6 to serve as the anchor for the conference. ESPN could snap their fingers tomorrow and decide the AAC or the MWC or the Sun Belt is a P6. They could also tell the AAC to raid Boise, Colo St., and BYU and that the new TV contract will be $15m/yr plus the Cotton Bowl will now be our anchor bowl. They could also expand the NY6 to be the NY7 and add, for instance, the Citrus Bowl, to be our anchor instead.

It's not like the BCS era where there's a clear, objective formula that drives power status.

Agreed. But, generally speaking, I think that it's likely that ESPN would try and maintain some semblance of making sense if they were going to arbitrarily decide to declare a conference a Power conference due to some sort of addition.

For example, while ESPN COULD in theory have the American add, say, Colorado State and Air Force and declare that the resulting conference is now a power conference, it would be a hard sale to make.

More to the point, I doubt that adding those two teams makes a new TV contract worth $15M per year. Of the two, I think Air Force would probably drive more value since the service academies will always have fans all over the nation, but it's still not going to drive enough viewership to be worth handing out $15M contracts per team, per year.

Basically, the financial numbers are unlikely to be there for the creation of any sort of new power conference by just adding any (fill in the blank) combination of teams.

Well, maybe not $15 million per year, but possibly close to $10 million per year in the intermediate term, and more to come later.

Adding a couple schools would probably raise the market share of the AAC considerably. Once the viewership numbers start to move, the AAC would be in a stronger and stronger position to negotiate a better deal.

---------------

Theoretically, there is no reason why the AAC shouldn't be able to add enough quality teams (e.g., expand to 14 FB and 14 BB members) to attain viewership numbers comparable to at least a couple of the P5 conferences, over let's say the next 10 years, or the time when a new TV contract is to be negotiated in 12 years.

(09-23-2019 05:25 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(09-23-2019 05:04 PM)nocoolnamejim Wrote:  

(09-23-2019 03:51 PM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  The difference is that the BCS had a published formula whereby a conference could qualify for AQ status. P5 status (the current equivalent of AQ) is decided by ESPN and how much they'll pay for a conference and for a major bowl game in the NY6 to serve as the anchor for the conference. ESPN could snap their fingers tomorrow and decide the AAC or the MWC or the Sun Belt is a P6. They could also tell the AAC to raid Boise, Colo St., and BYU and that the new TV contract will be $15m/yr plus the Cotton Bowl will now be our anchor bowl. They could also expand the NY6 to be the NY7 and add, for instance, the Citrus Bowl, to be our anchor instead.

It's not like the BCS era where there's a clear, objective formula that drives power status.

Agreed. But, generally speaking, I think that it's likely that ESPN would try and maintain some semblance of making sense if they were going to arbitrarily decide to declare a conference a Power conference due to some sort of addition.

For example, while ESPN COULD in theory have the American add, say, Colorado State and Air Force and declare that the resulting conference is now a power conference, it would be a hard sale to make.

More to the point, I doubt that adding those two teams makes a new TV contract worth $15M per year. Of the two, I think Air Force would probably drive more value since the service academies will always have fans all over the nation, but it's still not going to drive enough viewership to be worth handing out $15M contracts per team, per year.

Basically, the financial numbers are unlikely to be there for the creation of any sort of new power conference by just adding any (fill in the blank) combination of teams.

Well, maybe not $15 million per year, but possibly close to $10 million per year in the intermediate term, and more to come later.

Adding a couple schools would probably raise the market share of the AAC considerably. Once the viewership numbers start to move, the AAC would be in a stronger and stronger position to negotiate a better deal.

---------------

Theoretically, there is no reason why the AAC shouldn't be able to add enough quality teams (e.g., expand to 14 FB and 14 BB members) to attain viewership numbers comparable to at least a couple of the P5 conferences, over let's say the next 10 years, or the time when a new TV contract is to be negotiated in 12 years.

The AAC just signed up for $7 Mil per school per year, without signing a GOR. If ESPN tossed in the Citrus Bowl and "Associate" Contract Bowl Conference status that included a realistic path to the CFI the ink would be drying on GORs right now.

(09-24-2019 06:15 AM)UCF_SystemsEng Wrote:  

(09-23-2019 05:25 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(09-23-2019 05:04 PM)nocoolnamejim Wrote:  

(09-23-2019 03:51 PM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  The difference is that the BCS had a published formula whereby a conference could qualify for AQ status. P5 status (the current equivalent of AQ) is decided by ESPN and how much they'll pay for a conference and for a major bowl game in the NY6 to serve as the anchor for the conference. ESPN could snap their fingers tomorrow and decide the AAC or the MWC or the Sun Belt is a P6. They could also tell the AAC to raid Boise, Colo St., and BYU and that the new TV contract will be $15m/yr plus the Cotton Bowl will now be our anchor bowl. They could also expand the NY6 to be the NY7 and add, for instance, the Citrus Bowl, to be our anchor instead.

It's not like the BCS era where there's a clear, objective formula that drives power status.

Agreed. But, generally speaking, I think that it's likely that ESPN would try and maintain some semblance of making sense if they were going to arbitrarily decide to declare a conference a Power conference due to some sort of addition.

For example, while ESPN COULD in theory have the American add, say, Colorado State and Air Force and declare that the resulting conference is now a power conference, it would be a hard sale to make.

More to the point, I doubt that adding those two teams makes a new TV contract worth $15M per year. Of the two, I think Air Force would probably drive more value since the service academies will always have fans all over the nation, but it's still not going to drive enough viewership to be worth handing out $15M contracts per team, per year.

Basically, the financial numbers are unlikely to be there for the creation of any sort of new power conference by just adding any (fill in the blank) combination of teams.

Well, maybe not $15 million per year, but possibly close to $10 million per year in the intermediate term, and more to come later.

Adding a couple schools would probably raise the market share of the AAC considerably. Once the viewership numbers start to move, the AAC would be in a stronger and stronger position to negotiate a better deal.

---------------

Theoretically, there is no reason why the AAC shouldn't be able to add enough quality teams (e.g., expand to 14 FB and 14 BB members) to attain viewership numbers comparable to at least a couple of the P5 conferences, over let's say the next 10 years, or the time when a new TV contract is to be negotiated in 12 years.

The AAC just signed up for $7 Mil per school per year, without signing a GOR. If ESPN tossed in the Citrus Bowl and "Associate" Contract Bowl Conference status that included a realistic path to the CFI the ink would be drying on GORs right now.

If ESPN would bump us to $10 million a year, give us a dedicated major bowl and help us land 3 expansion candidates that include BYU, Boise St and Air Force, then I would have no issue signing a GOR.

outside of that, I think the AAC will stay at 11 for a while. If we have no need to expand, then why do it?

[/quote]

If ESPN would bump us to $10 million a year, give us a dedicated major bowl and help us land 3 expansion candidates that include BYU, Boise St and Air Force, then I would have no issue signing a GOR.

outside of that, I think the AAC will stay at 11 for a while. If we have no need to expand, then why do it? [/quote]

Very interesting contribution to the discussion.

When you consider that adding quality programs could move the AAC very close to being a true "power" conference, or actually vaults the AAC into full power conference status (we're not that far away from that now), $10 million per year, per team, would still be a bargain for ESPN.

In the least-paid P5 conferences, the amount per school is over $20 million.