About a year ago or so I started a thread where I suggested the idea that the Rice Owls might be a uniquely good candidate to make it as an independent in football, with non-football sports joining either the Missouri Valley, Southland, or Sun Belt.

My argument was that, compared with many other schools, Rice could fill up a 12-game schedule every year with programs their alumni would like to see them play more than the Conference USA lineup. Roughly half the schedule would consist of "like-minded" private and/or highly-regarded academic universities (Tulane, Tulsa, Duke, Wake Forest, Boston College, Vanderbilt, Army, Air Force, Notre Dame, Northwestern, Stanford, Cal) and the other half would consist of former Southwest Conference opponents and other schools in Texas (UT, A&M, TCU, SMU, Baylor, Houston, Arkansas, Texas Tech, UTEP, UTSA, North Texas, Texas State). Any other holes in the schedule could be filled with other independents (UMass, Liberty, BYU, NMSU, and the aforementioned Notre Dame and Army). Plus of course one game a year could be filled by an FCS school.

My point of this new thread isn't to break down whether independence could work for Rice, but whether it could work for any other G5's.

Obviously, the "con" argument, aside from much more complicated scheduling, is that getting a media deal as an independent not named Notre Dame, BYU, or Army could be very difficult. Just ask UMass and New Mexico State. The other big factor is about bowl games: (1) How do independents get access to bowl games without the help of a conference? and (2) What about access to CFP revenue, and to the New Year's Six bowls, as an independent rather than as a member of a G5 league?

That said, here are my ideas of who might be able to survive and even thrive as an independent in football, specifically among G5 schools.

(1) UConn - Their dream conference would be the ACC or the Big Ten, but short of that, their fans simply are not happy with the American, especially for basketball. This has been beaten to death, but they do have a non-football conference that would be ideal for them: the Big East. Sure, there's no more Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, or Notre Dame, but UConn fans would be excited by home games against Villanova, Providence, Seton Hall, Marquette, Georgetown, and Xavier.

But this is more about football independence. UConn's schedule as an independent would need to consist of some payday games. They'd need one or two road games against Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, and others with no return. They'd also need a home-only game against an FCS school. To complete a compelling schedule, UConn would have to work hard to fill up with northeastern opponents (BC, UMass, Temple, Navy, Army, Syracuse, Pittsburgh) for about three games of their schedule. Another three games would need to be home-and-home games against P5's. I'm thinking the Duke's and Wake Forest's and Virginia's rather than the Clemson's and Florida State's. Finally, another three or four games would need to be against G5 schools.

Sample UConn football schedule:

Home vs. Stony Brook
At Ohio State
Home vs. Boston College
At UMass
At Syracuse
Home vs. Iowa State
Home vs. Liberty
At Georgia Tech
Home vs. Ohio
At Georgia Southern
Home vs. Purdue
At BYU

(2) Appalachian State - Total homer argument to follow, but I do think much of what I would have to say about App could be said about many southern schools. There is an abundance of regional opponents in the South which many schools could fill up their schedules with which may be better than what can be offered by a conference schedule. Appalachian could fill out its schedule with 12 games among the 11 southern ACC schools, 8 southern AAC schools, 14 SEC schools, 9 other Sun Belt schools, and 14 C-USA schools without ever leaving the South. Non-football sports could return to the Southern Conference.

Sample schedule:

At Clemson
Home vs. ETSU
At Charlotte
Home vs. Ga. Southern
At Marshall
Home vs. Coastal Carolina
At ECU
Home vs. Wake Forest
At UNC
Home vs. Liberty
At New Mexico State
Home vs. South Carolina



What other schools, if any, could you argue would make good candidates among the G5 to make it as an independent?

Hey now, don't lump Texas in with the "South".

Pitt might be able to get 6 wins playing only G5 teams as an independent. I’m a bit of a Pitt homer though.

I don't think App could maintain an Indy schedule worth a damn.


I do think that the following could manage an Indy schedule that would be worth it:

ECU
UConn
Rice
USM
Buffalo

(06-17-2019 12:57 PM)Yosef Himself Wrote:  I don't think App could maintain an Indy schedule worth a damn.


I do think that the following could manage an Indy schedule that would be worth it:

ECU
UConn
Rice
USM
Buffalo

UConn can’t even manage an AAC schedule.

(06-17-2019 01:02 PM)zoocrew Wrote:  

(06-17-2019 12:57 PM)Yosef Himself Wrote:  I don't think App could maintain an Indy schedule worth a damn.


I do think that the following could manage an Indy schedule that would be worth it:

ECU
UConn
Rice
USM
Buffalo

UConn can’t even manage an AAC schedule.

I think the argument for UConn is that they could have UMass-level football as an independent and it'd still be worth it to rejoin the Big East.

None of the G5 teams will be able to go Indy long term. Where are you going to find all the teams to schedule UConn or Appy State? Sure BC and/or Syracuse might agree to play UConn in a home/home, but they won't do it long-term-- and that is what you'll need to fill out the schedule every year (this goes for you too Appy State-- NC State won't schedule you every year here on out).

This is not even taking in consideration the issue of getting a media deal, getting tie-ins to bowls, etc.

(06-17-2019 01:02 PM)zoocrew Wrote:  

(06-17-2019 12:57 PM)Yosef Himself Wrote:  I don't think App could maintain an Indy schedule worth a damn.


I do think that the following could manage an Indy schedule that would be worth it:

ECU
UConn
Rice
USM
Buffalo

UConn can’t even manage an AAC schedule.

UConn could absolutely handle an Indie schedule, especially if they're willing to whore out some basketball games in return.

A yearly UConn schedule could include:

UMass
BYU
Army
Temple
Buffalo
NMSU
Rutgers
Ohio
Marshall
WKU
ECU
Cuse
BC
Penn State
Vermont/Maine/Colgate/FCSetc.

I've wondered if Hawaii could pull of an independent schedule. But I have not broken it down with this much detail.

(06-17-2019 01:12 PM)Yosef Himself Wrote:  

(06-17-2019 01:02 PM)zoocrew Wrote:  

(06-17-2019 12:57 PM)Yosef Himself Wrote:  I don't think App could maintain an Indy schedule worth a damn.


I do think that the following could manage an Indy schedule that would be worth it:

ECU
UConn
Rice
USM
Buffalo

UConn can’t even manage an AAC schedule.

UConn could absolutely handle an Indie schedule, especially if they're willing to whore out some basketball games in return.

A yearly UConn schedule could include:

UMass
BYU
Army
Temple
Buffalo
NMSU
Rutgers
Ohio
Marshall
WKU
ECU
Cuse
BC
Penn State
Vermont/Maine/Colgate/FCSetc.

The other thing is that if schools (particularly in the East) can enjoy viability or at least sustainability in independent football, it encourages other teams to take the plunge. If you can reasonably count on yearly games with UConn, UMass, Liberty and possibly Army, along with whatever you would get from schools already in conferences, does ECU consider something like this? If ODU knew it could put its non-football sports in the A-10, do they? Would FIU and Florida Atlantic be able to leverage their sunny Florida location to build decent enough schedules to allow their basketball to find a better fit?

(06-17-2019 01:15 PM)TardisCaptain Wrote:  I've wondered if Hawaii could pull of an independent schedule. But I have not broken it down with this much detail.

The 13th game exemption and Hawaii Bowl tie in make it conceivable at least.

(06-17-2019 01:12 PM)Yosef Himself Wrote:  

(06-17-2019 01:02 PM)zoocrew Wrote:  

(06-17-2019 12:57 PM)Yosef Himself Wrote:  I don't think App could maintain an Indy schedule worth a damn.


I do think that the following could manage an Indy schedule that would be worth it:

ECU
UConn
Rice
USM
Buffalo

UConn can’t even manage an AAC schedule.

UConn could absolutely handle an Indie schedule, especially if they're willing to whore out some basketball games in return.

A yearly UConn schedule could include:

UMass
BYU
Army
Temple
Buffalo
NMSU
Rutgers
Ohio
Marshall
WKU
ECU
Cuse
BC
Penn State
Vermont/Maine/Colgate/FCSetc.

2-10

(06-17-2019 01:18 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  

(06-17-2019 01:12 PM)Yosef Himself Wrote:  

(06-17-2019 01:02 PM)zoocrew Wrote:  

(06-17-2019 12:57 PM)Yosef Himself Wrote:  I don't think App could maintain an Indy schedule worth a damn.


I do think that the following could manage an Indy schedule that would be worth it:

ECU
UConn
Rice
USM
Buffalo

UConn can’t even manage an AAC schedule.

UConn could absolutely handle an Indie schedule, especially if they're willing to whore out some basketball games in return.

A yearly UConn schedule could include:

UMass
BYU
Army
Temple
Buffalo
NMSU
Rutgers
Ohio
Marshall
WKU
ECU
Cuse
BC
Penn State
Vermont/Maine/Colgate/FCSetc.

The other thing is that if schools (particularly in the East) can enjoy viability or at least sustainability in independent football, it encourages other teams to take the plunge. If you can reasonably count on yearly games with UConn, UMass, Liberty and possibly Army, along with whatever you would get from schools already in conferences, does ECU consider something like this? If ODU knew it could put its non-football sports in the A-10, do they? Would FIU and Florida Atlantic be able to leverage their sunny Florida location to build decent enough schedules to allow their basketball to find a better fit?

My line of thinking exactly.

UMass and NMSU kind of got into independence by accident, NMSU more against their will than UMass. But with six independent schools now, I just can't help but wonder who would try to take their chances as well.

(06-17-2019 12:36 PM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  About a year ago or so I started a thread where I suggested the idea that the Rice Owls might be a uniquely good candidate to make it as an independent in football, with non-football sports joining either the Missouri Valley, Southland, or Sun Belt.

My argument was that, compared with many other schools, Rice could fill up a 12-game schedule every year with programs their alumni would like to see them play more than the Conference USA lineup. Roughly half the schedule would consist of "like-minded" private and/or highly-regarded academic universities (Tulane, Tulsa, Duke, Wake Forest, Boston College, Vanderbilt, Army, Air Force, Notre Dame, Northwestern, Stanford, Cal) and the other half would consist of former Southwest Conference opponents and other schools in Texas (UT, A&M, TCU, SMU, Baylor, Houston, Arkansas, Texas Tech, UTEP, UTSA, North Texas, Texas State). Any other holes in the schedule could be filled with other independents (UMass, Liberty, BYU, NMSU, and the aforementioned Notre Dame and Army). Plus of course one game a year could be filled by an FCS school.

My point of this new thread isn't to break down whether independence could work for Rice, but whether it could work for any other G5's.

Obviously, the "con" argument, aside from much more complicated scheduling, is that getting a media deal as an independent not named Notre Dame, BYU, or Army could be very difficult. Just ask UMass and New Mexico State. The other big factor is about bowl games: (1) How do independents get access to bowl games without the help of a conference? and (2) What about access to CFP revenue, and to the New Year's Six bowls, as an independent rather than as a member of a G5 league?

That said, here are my ideas of who might be able to survive and even thrive as an independent in football, specifically among G5 schools.

(1) UConn - Their dream conference would be the ACC or the Big Ten, but short of that, their fans simply are not happy with the American, especially for basketball. This has been beaten to death, but they do have a non-football conference that would be ideal for them: the Big East. Sure, there's no more Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, or Notre Dame, but UConn fans would be excited by home games against Villanova, Providence, Seton Hall, Marquette, Georgetown, and Xavier.

But this is more about football independence. UConn's schedule as an independent would need to consist of some payday games. They'd need one or two road games against Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, and others with no return. They'd also need a home-only game against an FCS school. To complete a compelling schedule, UConn would have to work hard to fill up with northeastern opponents (BC, UMass, Temple, Navy, Army, Syracuse, Pittsburgh) for about three games of their schedule. Another three games would need to be home-and-home games against P5's. I'm thinking the Duke's and Wake Forest's and Virginia's rather than the Clemson's and Florida State's. Finally, another three or four games would need to be against G5 schools.

Sample UConn football schedule:

Home vs. Stony Brook
At Ohio State
Home vs. Boston College
At UMass
At Syracuse
Home vs. Iowa State
Home vs. Liberty
At Georgia Tech
Home vs. Ohio
At Georgia Southern
Home vs. Purdue
At BYU

(2) Appalachian State - Total homer argument to follow, but I do think much of what I would have to say about App could be said about many southern schools. There is an abundance of regional opponents in the South which many schools could fill up their schedules with which may be better than what can be offered by a conference schedule. Appalachian could fill out its schedule with 12 games among the 11 southern ACC schools, 8 southern AAC schools, 14 SEC schools, 9 other Sun Belt schools, and 14 C-USA schools without ever leaving the South. Non-football sports could return to the Southern Conference.

Sample schedule:

At Clemson
Home vs. ETSU
At Charlotte
Home vs. Ga. Southern
At Marshall
Home vs. Coastal Carolina
At ECU
Home vs. Wake Forest
At UNC
Home vs. Liberty
At New Mexico State
Home vs. South Carolina



What other schools, if any, could you argue would make good candidates among the G5 to make it as an independent?

Rice and Uconn make a good bit of sense for the reasons you mentioned.

I'm having a hard time seeing anyone else though. A big thing these schools would miss is a TV deal and bowl access. Perhaps if you get enough G5 indys together you can lobby for a shared bowl spot or two, but that seems like a long shot.

(06-17-2019 01:19 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  

(06-17-2019 01:15 PM)TardisCaptain Wrote:  I've wondered if Hawaii could pull of an independent schedule. But I have not broken it down with this much detail.

The 13th game exemption and Hawaii Bowl tie in make it conceivable at least.

It's a death trap. Regardless of the 13th game exemption, no coach of an FBS conference team wants to fly his team across thousands of miles of ocean and multiple time zones to play a non-conference game in Honolulu after conference play has begun. UH's post-September home schedule would never consist of anyone but New Mexico State, Liberty, UMass, and occasionally Army or BYU. UH fans would hate it and abandon the program in droves. That's why the UH administration has absolutely zero interest in independence.

Sdsu could pull this off if they had to. They get home and homes with all Pac12 teams but USC and Oregon. Just announced a home and home with Mizzou. Teams want exposure in the fertile recruiting grounds of Southern california. New stadium breaks ground in 1Q 2020 too. [/code]

(06-17-2019 01:26 PM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  

(06-17-2019 01:18 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  

(06-17-2019 01:12 PM)Yosef Himself Wrote:  

(06-17-2019 01:02 PM)zoocrew Wrote:  

(06-17-2019 12:57 PM)Yosef Himself Wrote:  I don't think App could maintain an Indy schedule worth a damn.


I do think that the following could manage an Indy schedule that would be worth it:

ECU
UConn
Rice
USM
Buffalo

UConn can’t even manage an AAC schedule.

UConn could absolutely handle an Indie schedule, especially if they're willing to whore out some basketball games in return.

A yearly UConn schedule could include:

UMass
BYU
Army
Temple
Buffalo
NMSU
Rutgers
Ohio
Marshall
WKU
ECU
Cuse
BC
Penn State
Vermont/Maine/Colgate/FCSetc.

The other thing is that if schools (particularly in the East) can enjoy viability or at least sustainability in independent football, it encourages other teams to take the plunge. If you can reasonably count on yearly games with UConn, UMass, Liberty and possibly Army, along with whatever you would get from schools already in conferences, does ECU consider something like this? If ODU knew it could put its non-football sports in the A-10, do they? Would FIU and Florida Atlantic be able to leverage their sunny Florida location to build decent enough schedules to allow their basketball to find a better fit?

My line of thinking exactly.

UMass and NMSU kind of got into independence by accident, NMSU more against their will than UMass. But with six independent schools now, I just can't help but wonder who would try to take their chances as well.

In essence, what we could be talking about is whether there are enough G5 football programs who don't particularly benefit from their current all-sports conference to get together to form a football only conference that enjoys the benefits of a CFP share, a media contract and bowl tie-ins.

In my mind, that's more likely than a bunch of schools rolling the indy dice.

(06-17-2019 04:00 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(06-17-2019 01:26 PM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  

(06-17-2019 01:18 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  

(06-17-2019 01:12 PM)Yosef Himself Wrote:  

(06-17-2019 01:02 PM)zoocrew Wrote:  UConn can’t even manage an AAC schedule.

UConn could absolutely handle an Indie schedule, especially if they're willing to whore out some basketball games in return.

A yearly UConn schedule could include:

UMass
BYU
Army
Temple
Buffalo
NMSU
Rutgers
Ohio
Marshall
WKU
ECU
Cuse
BC
Penn State
Vermont/Maine/Colgate/FCSetc.

The other thing is that if schools (particularly in the East) can enjoy viability or at least sustainability in independent football, it encourages other teams to take the plunge. If you can reasonably count on yearly games with UConn, UMass, Liberty and possibly Army, along with whatever you would get from schools already in conferences, does ECU consider something like this? If ODU knew it could put its non-football sports in the A-10, do they? Would FIU and Florida Atlantic be able to leverage their sunny Florida location to build decent enough schedules to allow their basketball to find a better fit?

My line of thinking exactly.

UMass and NMSU kind of got into independence by accident, NMSU more against their will than UMass. But with six independent schools now, I just can't help but wonder who would try to take their chances as well.

In essence, what we could be talking about is whether there are enough G5 football programs who don't particularly benefit from their current all-sports conference to get together to form a football only conference that enjoys the benefits of a CFP share, a media contract and bowl tie-ins.

In my mind, that's more likely than a bunch of schools rolling the indy dice.

Why would the CFP members allow a new conference to get a cut of the pie?


Indie seems way more likely. Indie teams get the already agreed upon share of something like 300k per school. They can work their own agreements for bowl games with bowls they think their fans would go to and buy tickets.



USM, Marshall, and Rice will not make it to the AAC. But going the Indie rout they can get a better schedule than CUSA and maybe more recognition in terms of local media outlets.

UConn could possibly make more money if they go Big East and work their own deal with NESN or BYU-like ESPN deal.

I think Boise could make it, they have national appeal, but I don’t think they would ever consider it,


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

The attractiveness of independence and the ability to pull it off goes up tremendously if there are several more independent teams. If Southern Miss, Marshall, Rice, and UConn all went football independent, they would provide each other acceptable games for the late-season schedule.

I also think Hawaii and San Diego State could make independence work...together. I believe that both could work schedules to attract at least two P5 home games each year, plus each other and BYU in the late-season. Add a couple games against other independents, a couple games against other G5 schools, and the FCS home game and you can fill out a decent schedule. Something like this:

For HAWAII:
AUGUST/SEPTEMBER
Arizona
at Wisconsin
Oregon State
at Washington
FCS

OCTOBER
at Nevada
Liberty
at SJSU
Wyoming

NOVEMBER/DECEMBER
at New Mexico State
BYU
at San Diego State
Army

For SDSU:
SEPTEMBER
at Cal
UCLA
at Arizona State
UNLV

OCTOBER
at Rice
Missouri
at Fresno State
FCS

NOVEMBER
at Texas A&M
SJSU
at BYU
Hawaii