These are the games that TRULY matter: OOC. This is where conference reputation really takes shape. Every year CUSA sucks it up against quality OOC. Will that change this year or will we be back to losing OOC games to the Dukes, Iowas, Boises, Cincy's, Mississippi States, Miami's, Tennessee's, Baylor's, Arkansas's of the world? What win % probability do you give for your team's OOC games this year. I'll start:

Southern Miss
vs. Alcorn State - 100%
@ Mississippi State - 40%
@ Troy - 65%
@ Alabama - 1%

MTSU
@ Michigan
vs. TN State
vs. Duke
@ Iowa

Marshall
vs. VMI
@ Boise State
vs. Ohio
vs. Cincy

FIU
@ Tulane
vs. UNH
vs. UMASS
@ Miami

UNCC
vs. Webber
@ App State
vs. UMASS
@ Clemson

FAU
@ Ohio State
vs. UCF
@ Ball State
vs. Wagner

ODU
vs. Norfolk State
@ Va Tech
@ UVA
vs. ECU

WKU
vs. UCA
vs. Louisville
vs. Army
@ Arkansas

UAB
vs. Alcorn State
@ Akron
vs. South Alabama
@ Tennessee

UNT
vs. Abilene-Christian
@ SMU
@ CAL
vs. Houston

La Tech
@ Texas
vs. Grambling
@ BGSU
vs. UMASS

UTSA
vs. Incarnate Word
@ Baylor
vs. Army
@ TA&M

UTEP
vs. HBU
@ TTU
vs. Nevada
@ NMSU

Rice
@ Army
vs. Wake Forest
vs. Texas
vs. Baylor

Southern Miss
vs. Alcorn State - 99%
@ Mississippi State - 25%, without SEC refs - 45%
@ Troy - 51%
@ Alabama - .001%

ODU
vs. Norfolk State - 80%
@ Va Tech - 15%
@ UVA - 35%
vs. ECU - 50%

Really have no idea what we have. Just my guesses.

(06-17-2019 10:38 AM)MonarchManiac Wrote:  ODU
vs. Norfolk State - 80%
@ Va Tech - 15%
@ UVA - 35%
vs. ECU - 50%

Really have no idea what we have. Just my guesses.

How much do you and VT return from last year? I assume VT will be out for revenge. I'd like to think ODU still has a puncher's chance in this game though, again.

Rice
@ Army - 5%
vs. Wake Forest - 1%
vs. Texas - 0%
vs. Baylor - 0%

(06-17-2019 11:00 AM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  Rice
@ Army - 5%
vs. Wake Forest - 1%
vs. Texas - 0%
vs. Baylor - 0%

Look forward to discussing basketball and baseball with you next year lol.

Charlotte
vs. Gardner Webb - 99%
@ App State - 15%
vs. UMASS - 75%
@ Clemson - 0%

Charlotte
vs. Gardner Webb - 99.9%
@ App State - 20%
vs. UMASS - 55%
@ Clemson - 0.000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001% (never say never)

Just my opinion...

UNT
vs. Abilene Christian- 99% (Until you play the game, there is always a chance)
@ SMU- 75% (The Mean Green offense is loaded, and a game at SMU isn't really a road game for us)
@ CAL- 35% (Cal brings back most of last season's great defense last, and their offense can't get worse)
vs. Houston- 55% (Lil Briles is gone, and we all know how much he means to an offense, plus Houston's defense has serious issues. Should be a very loud sold out game at Apogee)

ODU
vs. Norfolk State -- 98.6%
@ Va Tech -- 15.82%
@ UVA -- 19.217%
vs. ECU -- 47.340846034856646846745689% (give or take)

(06-17-2019 11:08 AM)everyone Wrote:  

(06-17-2019 11:00 AM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  Rice
@ Army - 5%
vs. Wake Forest - 1%
vs. Texas - 0%
vs. Baylor - 0%

Look forward to discussing basketball and baseball with you next year lol.

I might be too optimistic about the Army game...

FAU
@ Ohio State 5% (new coach at OSU, maybe they hired the wrong guy!)
vs. UCF 49% (we all strive to be UCF; will be biggest home game ever at FAU Stadium)
@ Ball State 90% (payback of an unexplainable loss; Ball State is just awful)
vs. Wagner 100% (could drop 100 on them)

I’ll play -

VMI - 100%
Boise - 25%
Ohio - 50%
Cincy - 35%

Jmho

Here are the OOC games CUSA has that is most definitely winnable. These are the games we must win if we're to be taken seriously by the CFB world:

USM @ Mississippi State...MS State is breaking in a new QB so it's possible we could win this game. Defense is going to have to play flawless and offense can't turn the ball over.

Duke @ Middle Tennessee...Duke will also be starting a new QB and the game will be played in Murfreesboro. Definitely winnable IMO.

Marshall @ Boise State...Boise lost a lot of production from last year. They'll be replacing their 4 year starter at QB, a 1400+ yard rusher, and their 2 top receivers from last year. Marshall can absolutely win this game.

UCF @ FAU....UCF lost a lot of production on the defensive side of the ball, offensive line, and they'll still be without star QB who's still rehabbing. Definitely a winnable game for FAU.

Louisville vs. WKU...yes, WKU has a new coach but that's a good thing right? Also, Louisville is still a hot mess and this game is at a neutral site. Definitely winnable.

UAB @ Tennessee...spoiler alert for Tennessee. Bill Clark knows that if he leads UAB to another double digit win season AND can get an SEC scalp included in that...then come December, there will be a 3+ million dollar HC offer from a P5 school like Tennessee/Va Tech/Maryland/Arizona or Arkansas. Plenty of motivation for UAB to beat Tennessee this year. Also, this Tennessee isn't your daddy's Tennessee. Definitley winnable. And the game is sandwiched between South Carolina and Kentucky in November so there's that.

North Texas @ Cal...just like Bill Clark's UAB @ Tennessee, Seth Littrell knows that another 9+ win season for UNT will more than likely put him in the running for a P5 gig that's offering 3+ million. Also, Cal is suspect. They lose a lot of receivers this year and their top running back. Definitely winnable for UNT.

What do ya'll think?

Charlotte
vs. Gardner Webb - 99%
@ Appy 49%
vs. UMASS - 69%
@ Clemson - 2%

40% for State is high. Way high.

(06-17-2019 04:14 PM)BeagleUSM Wrote:  40% for State is high. Way high.

Probably just my gold tinted glasses but I do think it's a winnable game for us. Of course I'm not going to be shocked if we lose but we really shouldn't be shocked if we win considering who all we have returning this year in addition to who Mississippi State has lost. Of course, for us to win this game we'll have to play error free on both sides and defense will have to step up big time.

(06-17-2019 03:49 PM)TTT Wrote:  Here are the OOC games CUSA has that is most definitely winnable. These are the games we must win if we're to be taken seriously by the CFB world:

USM @ Mississippi State...MS State is breaking in a new QB so it's possible we could win this game. Defense is going to have to play flawless and offense can't turn the ball over.

Duke @ Middle Tennessee...Duke will also be starting a new QB and the game will be played in Murfreesboro. Definitely winnable IMO.

Marshall @ Boise State...Boise lost a lot of production from last year. They'll be replacing their 4 year starter at QB, a 1400+ yard rusher, and their 2 top receivers from last year. Marshall can absolutely win this game.

UCF @ FAU....UCF lost a lot of production on the defensive side of the ball, offensive line, and they'll still be without star QB who's still rehabbing. Definitely a winnable game for FAU.

Louisville vs. WKU...yes, WKU has a new coach but that's a good thing right? Also, Louisville is still a hot mess and this game is at a neutral site. Definitely winnable.

UAB @ Tennessee...spoiler alert for Tennessee. Bill Clark knows that if he leads UAB to another double digit win season AND can get an SEC scalp included in that...then come December, there will be a 3+ million dollar HC offer from a P5 school like Tennessee/Va Tech/Maryland/Arizona or Arkansas. Plenty of motivation for UAB to beat Tennessee this year. Also, this Tennessee isn't your daddy's Tennessee. Definitley winnable. And the game is sandwiched between South Carolina and Kentucky in November so there's that.

North Texas @ Cal...just like Bill Clark's UAB @ Tennessee, Seth Littrell knows that another 9+ win season for UNT will more than likely put him in the running for a P5 gig that's offering 3+ million. Also, Cal is suspect. They lose a lot of receivers this year and their top running back. Definitely winnable for UNT.

What do ya'll think?

lolwut?

UCF really only lost Hill on defense and while he's clearly an NFL talent, he took games off and only showed up 50% of the time. Every one else that left is getting replaced by a much more talented but younger player. The entire secondary is back.

We lost 2 guys on OLine but the 3 returners are all 1st Team All AAC and 2 of them will be First or Second round draft picks. We get a starter back this year who missed last year with an injury, and we've got a ton of young guys to fill the last spot including 4-star Adrian Medley.

Milton will be hard to replace, absolutely. But we've got Wimbush and Mack competing to start, they're both huge talents, and UCF will be a run-heavy offense anyways. Both are dominant running QBs. Combine that with the arsenal of weapons on offense and the above mentioned OLine and ………..good luck stopping that run game.

North Texas

Abilene Christian 99%- Should be 100, but it's football and anything can happen

@SMU 75%- We curb stomped them at home last year but this round is in Highland Park where UNT has trouble. I still think this is a win but probably not by the same margin as last year.

@Cal 50%- I have very little respect for Cal and the PAC in general. On a neutral field I think UNT wins more often than not. But since it's a long road trip, this is a coin flip.

Houston 51%- Two rediculous offenses. Two suspect defenses. Home field advantage may be huge for this. I expect a sell out at Apogee.

UNT
vs. Abilene-Christian 90% Anything can happen
@ SMU 55% Even if we seem better on paper we have yet to win at SMU in our yearly series
@ CAL 25% We won't catch them off guard and the likelihood of us winning a road P5 game two years in a row is low.
vs. Houston 40% Houston has an incredibly talented QB who ran for 60 yards a game last year and we are replacing both inside LB's, hopefully he doesn't go for 100+ on the ground