(06-17-2019 01:52 PM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  

(06-17-2019 11:08 AM)everyone Wrote:  

(06-17-2019 11:00 AM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  Rice
@ Army - 5%
vs. Wake Forest - 1%
vs. Texas - 0%
vs. Baylor - 0%

Look forward to discussing basketball and baseball with you next year lol.

I might be too optimistic about the Army game...

Loki, I don’t disagree with your assessment, but for better optics I converted your percentages to a log scale. (|%)

Rice
@ Army - 37|%
vs. Wake Forest - 30|%
vs. Texas - 18|%
vs. Baylor - 26|%

(That’s assuming about 1200:1 and 300:1 for the last two)

(06-17-2019 11:22 AM)chidave Wrote:  Charlotte
vs. Gardner Webb - 99.9%
@ App State - 20%
vs. UMASS - 55%
@ Clemson - 0.000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001% (never say never)

Couldn’t resist this one, too:
Gardner 80|%
App 42|%
Mass 51|%
Clemson minus 900|%

(06-18-2019 12:02 AM)owl at the moon Wrote:  

(06-17-2019 01:52 PM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  

(06-17-2019 11:08 AM)everyone Wrote:  

(06-17-2019 11:00 AM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  Rice
@ Army - 5%
vs. Wake Forest - 1%
vs. Texas - 0%
vs. Baylor - 0%

Look forward to discussing basketball and baseball with you next year lol.

I might be too optimistic about the Army game...

Loki, I don’t disagree with your assessment, but for better optics I converted your percentages to a log scale. (|%)

Rice
@ Army - 37|%
vs. Wake Forest - 30|%
vs. Texas - 18|%
vs. Baylor - 26|%

(That’s assuming about 1200:1 and 300:1 for the last two)

I give Rice a 70% chance of not winning any games at all this season. We play two winnable games, but they're on the road. This is a bad time to play a brutal schedule.

My take:

FAU
@ Ohio State - 0%
vs. UCF - 51%
@ Ball State - 75%
vs. Wagner - 100%

WKU
vs. UCA-65%-Not a gimmee win as we have struggled in the past against IAA foes, our guys better be ready to play and realize the team we are playing are the underdogs who want that IA win
vs. Louisville-53%-To me this game is a toss up, we should have a good crowd at Nissan Stadium and I would think our team wants this game, plus last season we should have beaten UofL
vs. Army-45%-At least a home game, but Army is rolling and always hard to play a triple option team
@ Arkansas-40%-Road SEC games have not been kind to us, plus mid Nov. Arkansas might be rolling with offensive guru Chad Morris.

(06-17-2019 04:50 PM)The Knight Time Wrote:  

(06-17-2019 03:49 PM)TTT Wrote:  Here are the OOC games CUSA has that is most definitely winnable. These are the games we must win if we're to be taken seriously by the CFB world:

USM @ Mississippi State...MS State is breaking in a new QB so it's possible we could win this game. Defense is going to have to play flawless and offense can't turn the ball over.

Duke @ Middle Tennessee...Duke will also be starting a new QB and the game will be played in Murfreesboro. Definitely winnable IMO.

Marshall @ Boise State...Boise lost a lot of production from last year. They'll be replacing their 4 year starter at QB, a 1400+ yard rusher, and their 2 top receivers from last year. Marshall can absolutely win this game.

UCF @ FAU....UCF lost a lot of production on the defensive side of the ball, offensive line, and they'll still be without star QB who's still rehabbing. Definitely a winnable game for FAU.

Louisville vs. WKU...yes, WKU has a new coach but that's a good thing right? Also, Louisville is still a hot mess and this game is at a neutral site. Definitely winnable.

UAB @ Tennessee...spoiler alert for Tennessee. Bill Clark knows that if he leads UAB to another double digit win season AND can get an SEC scalp included in that...then come December, there will be a 3+ million dollar HC offer from a P5 school like Tennessee/Va Tech/Maryland/Arizona or Arkansas. Plenty of motivation for UAB to beat Tennessee this year. Also, this Tennessee isn't your daddy's Tennessee. Definitley winnable. And the game is sandwiched between South Carolina and Kentucky in November so there's that.

North Texas @ Cal...just like Bill Clark's UAB @ Tennessee, Seth Littrell knows that another 9+ win season for UNT will more than likely put him in the running for a P5 gig that's offering 3+ million. Also, Cal is suspect. They lose a lot of receivers this year and their top running back. Definitely winnable for UNT.

What do ya'll think?

lolwut?

UCF really only lost Hill on defense and while he's clearly an NFL talent, he took games off and only showed up 50% of the time. Every one else that left is getting replaced by a much more talented but younger player. The entire secondary is back.

We lost 2 guys on OLine but the 3 returners are all 1st Team All AAC and 2 of them will be First or Second round draft picks. We get a starter back this year who missed last year with an injury, and we've got a ton of young guys to fill the last spot including 4-star Adrian Medley.

Milton will be hard to replace, absolutely. But we've got Wimbush and Mack competing to start, they're both huge talents, and UCF will be a run-heavy offense anyways. Both are dominant running QBs. Combine that with the arsenal of weapons on offense and the above mentioned OLine and ………..good luck stopping that run game.

According to SB Nation, y'all got a defensive line that loses four of last year’s top five tacklers (and six of the top nine). The entire defensive backbone gets retooled — the top four tackles, the middle linebacker (Pat Jasinski), and two of last year’s top three safeties are all gone. Ya'll have to replace 80 career starts worth of talent on the offensive line.

Because of all this, and the fact that the game is early in the season and it's AT FAU, it's definitely a winnable game for the Owls.

MT

@Michigan 0.0%
Tenn State 50%
@Iowa 1%
Duke 3%

(06-18-2019 09:00 AM)TTT Wrote:  

(06-17-2019 04:50 PM)The Knight Time Wrote:  

(06-17-2019 03:49 PM)TTT Wrote:  Here are the OOC games CUSA has that is most definitely winnable. These are the games we must win if we're to be taken seriously by the CFB world:

USM @ Mississippi State...MS State is breaking in a new QB so it's possible we could win this game. Defense is going to have to play flawless and offense can't turn the ball over.

Duke @ Middle Tennessee...Duke will also be starting a new QB and the game will be played in Murfreesboro. Definitely winnable IMO.

Marshall @ Boise State...Boise lost a lot of production from last year. They'll be replacing their 4 year starter at QB, a 1400+ yard rusher, and their 2 top receivers from last year. Marshall can absolutely win this game.

UCF @ FAU....UCF lost a lot of production on the defensive side of the ball, offensive line, and they'll still be without star QB who's still rehabbing. Definitely a winnable game for FAU.

Louisville vs. WKU...yes, WKU has a new coach but that's a good thing right? Also, Louisville is still a hot mess and this game is at a neutral site. Definitely winnable.

UAB @ Tennessee...spoiler alert for Tennessee. Bill Clark knows that if he leads UAB to another double digit win season AND can get an SEC scalp included in that...then come December, there will be a 3+ million dollar HC offer from a P5 school like Tennessee/Va Tech/Maryland/Arizona or Arkansas. Plenty of motivation for UAB to beat Tennessee this year. Also, this Tennessee isn't your daddy's Tennessee. Definitley winnable. And the game is sandwiched between South Carolina and Kentucky in November so there's that.

North Texas @ Cal...just like Bill Clark's UAB @ Tennessee, Seth Littrell knows that another 9+ win season for UNT will more than likely put him in the running for a P5 gig that's offering 3+ million. Also, Cal is suspect. They lose a lot of receivers this year and their top running back. Definitely winnable for UNT.

What do ya'll think?

lolwut?

UCF really only lost Hill on defense and while he's clearly an NFL talent, he took games off and only showed up 50% of the time. Every one else that left is getting replaced by a much more talented but younger player. The entire secondary is back.

We lost 2 guys on OLine but the 3 returners are all 1st Team All AAC and 2 of them will be First or Second round draft picks. We get a starter back this year who missed last year with an injury, and we've got a ton of young guys to fill the last spot including 4-star Adrian Medley.

Milton will be hard to replace, absolutely. But we've got Wimbush and Mack competing to start, they're both huge talents, and UCF will be a run-heavy offense anyways. Both are dominant running QBs. Combine that with the arsenal of weapons on offense and the above mentioned OLine and ………..good luck stopping that run game.

According to SB Nation, y'all got a defensive line that loses four of last year’s top five tacklers (and six of the top nine). The entire defensive backbone gets retooled — the top four tackles, the middle linebacker (Pat Jasinski), and two of last year’s top three safeties are all gone. Ya'll have to replace 80 career starts worth of talent on the offensive line.

Because of all this, and the fact that the game is early in the season and it's AT FAU, it's definitely a winnable game for the Owls.

lol homie the only key guys we lost on defense were Hill and Gibson. Jaskinski was good but not great and by end of the year he was clearly being outplayed by Freshman Gilyard. We lost 1 Safety so I don't know where "top 3" is coming from.

Is it winnable? Maybe. Doubtful though.

(06-17-2019 03:49 PM)TTT Wrote:  Here are the OOC games CUSA has that is most definitely winnable. These are the games we must win if we're to be taken seriously by the CFB world:

USM @ Mississippi State...MS State is breaking in a new QB so it's possible we could win this game. Defense is going to have to play flawless and offense can't turn the ball over.

Duke @ Middle Tennessee...Duke will also be starting a new QB and the game will be played in Murfreesboro. Definitely winnable IMO.

Marshall @ Boise State...Boise lost a lot of production from last year. They'll be replacing their 4 year starter at QB, a 1400+ yard rusher, and their 2 top receivers from last year. Marshall can absolutely win this game.

UCF @ FAU....UCF lost a lot of production on the defensive side of the ball, offensive line, and they'll still be without star QB who's still rehabbing. Definitely a winnable game for FAU.

Louisville vs. WKU...yes, WKU has a new coach but that's a good thing right? Also, Louisville is still a hot mess and this game is at a neutral site. Definitely winnable.

UAB @ Tennessee...spoiler alert for Tennessee. Bill Clark knows that if he leads UAB to another double digit win season AND can get an SEC scalp included in that...then come December, there will be a 3+ million dollar HC offer from a P5 school like Tennessee/Va Tech/Maryland/Arizona or Arkansas. Plenty of motivation for UAB to beat Tennessee this year. Also, this Tennessee isn't your daddy's Tennessee. Definitley winnable. And the game is sandwiched between South Carolina and Kentucky in November so there's that.

North Texas @ Cal...just like Bill Clark's UAB @ Tennessee, Seth Littrell knows that another 9+ win season for UNT will more than likely put him in the running for a P5 gig that's offering 3+ million. Also, Cal is suspect. They lose a lot of receivers this year and their top running back. Definitely winnable for UNT.

What do ya'll think?

Spoiler alert. Clark is not motivated by getting a P5 offer. He may get another one but if you think that’s what it’s al about you haven’t Ben paying attention to what has been going on in Birmingham

(06-18-2019 01:36 PM)ATTALLABLAZE Wrote:  

(06-17-2019 03:49 PM)TTT Wrote:  Here are the OOC games CUSA has that is most definitely winnable. These are the games we must win if we're to be taken seriously by the CFB world:

USM @ Mississippi State...MS State is breaking in a new QB so it's possible we could win this game. Defense is going to have to play flawless and offense can't turn the ball over.

Duke @ Middle Tennessee...Duke will also be starting a new QB and the game will be played in Murfreesboro. Definitely winnable IMO.

Marshall @ Boise State...Boise lost a lot of production from last year. They'll be replacing their 4 year starter at QB, a 1400+ yard rusher, and their 2 top receivers from last year. Marshall can absolutely win this game.

UCF @ FAU....UCF lost a lot of production on the defensive side of the ball, offensive line, and they'll still be without star QB who's still rehabbing. Definitely a winnable game for FAU.

Louisville vs. WKU...yes, WKU has a new coach but that's a good thing right? Also, Louisville is still a hot mess and this game is at a neutral site. Definitely winnable.

UAB @ Tennessee...spoiler alert for Tennessee. Bill Clark knows that if he leads UAB to another double digit win season AND can get an SEC scalp included in that...then come December, there will be a 3+ million dollar HC offer from a P5 school like Tennessee/Va Tech/Maryland/Arizona or Arkansas. Plenty of motivation for UAB to beat Tennessee this year. Also, this Tennessee isn't your daddy's Tennessee. Definitley winnable. And the game is sandwiched between South Carolina and Kentucky in November so there's that.

North Texas @ Cal...just like Bill Clark's UAB @ Tennessee, Seth Littrell knows that another 9+ win season for UNT will more than likely put him in the running for a P5 gig that's offering 3+ million. Also, Cal is suspect. They lose a lot of receivers this year and their top running back. Definitely winnable for UNT.

What do ya'll think?

Spoiler alert. Clark is not motivated by getting a P5 offer. He may get another one but if you think that’s what it’s al about you haven’t Ben paying attention to what has been going on in Birmingham

P5 offer or not. He's motivated by the millions of dollars that would come with a P5 HC offer. If at the end of the '19 season, Arkansas says "hey Bill, we want you to coach us in football. We'll pay you 3.5 million dollars"...you think he's going to turn that down??? No. He's gone in a heartbeat. Same thing for Littrell or any other coach who has success in CUSA. We just have to accept that CUSA HC gigs are a means to an end, a stepping stone for much higher paying gigs. And that's not a bad thing. Accept it. Embrace it.

Never said he would not leave but if you think that’s what motivates him you haven't been paying attention as I said. ;-). I’ll leave it at that without divulging too much.

FIU

@ Tulane - 60%
vs. UNH - 95%
vs. UMASS - 80%
@ Miami - 30%

(06-18-2019 02:58 PM)ATTALLABLAZE Wrote:  Never said he would not leave but if you think that’s what motivates him you haven't been paying attention as I said. ;-). I’ll leave it at that without divulging too much.

You're a fool if you don't think more money isn't a motivating factors for coaches.

I never said money isn’t a motivating factor for coaches. It motivates a lot of them. If we beat Tennessee the motivating factor isn’t Clark getting a huge payday at another school. That might be a result but that is not he is wound.

Considering ODU is predicted to win 3-4 games in total this season... here is a bit more of a realistic prediction (aka pessimistic)

ODU
vs. Norfolk State = 90%
@ Va Tech = 3% (people forget they have one of the best home field advantages in the country)(also note 3% is double the win probability we had last year)
@ UVA = 10%
vs. ECU = 30%

(06-18-2019 07:14 PM)ATTALLABLAZE Wrote:  I never said money isn’t a motivating factor for coaches. It motivates a lot of them. If we beat Tennessee the motivating factor isn’t Clark getting a huge payday at another school. That might be a result but that is not he is wound.

It's not an either/or. There's a lot of highly motivating factors for coaches: winning big games against P5 schools that you aren't *supposed to win (in this case Tenn, a school with a lot of history), increasing your teams W total, increasing your HC W total %, seeing your team develop/grow, seeing players get a degree, the potential to make more money...all considerable motivating factors. This is why schools put clauses in contracts like "beat an SEC team and you get an extra 100K" or "beat a P5 school and you get 100k", "win a bowl game vs a P5 school and you get 100K" etc. When coaches say things like "we have to approach this game like any other game"...is simply just coach speak. Coaches KNOW what's at stake when they get a chance to beat a winnable P5 program that has a lot of history while also knowing the impact it can make on the value you have as a prospective HC for larger schools with much larger budgets.

There seems to be consensus on the Charlotte games, so I will just weigh in on the game against the Appys. Last year they beat Charlotte 45-9. This year it will be much closer--one way or the other.

I think the Appys will be so mad that they will question their coaching hire. They would throw their cups of ice down onto the track surrounding the field if their concession stands served ice, and a tractor was seen plowing up the track in the spring. I think they are referring to that large space between the stands and the field as "The Pasture" and hoping to get Mast General Store to buy the naming rights.

@Appy 43%

(06-19-2019 04:01 PM)Nugget49er Wrote:  There seems to be consensus on the Charlotte games, so I will just weigh in on the game against the Appys. Last year they beat Charlotte 45-9. This year it will be much closer--one way or the other.

I think the Appys will be so mad that they will question their coaching hire. They would throw their cups of ice down onto the track surrounding the field if their concession stands served ice, and a tractor was seen plowing up the track in the spring. I think they are referring to that large space between the stands and the field as "The Pasture" and hoping to get Mast General Store to buy the naming rights.

@Appy 43%

clt is going to bring a yeti 110 and sell ice

(06-18-2019 02:51 PM)TTT Wrote:  

(06-18-2019 01:36 PM)ATTALLABLAZE Wrote:  

(06-17-2019 03:49 PM)TTT Wrote:  

Spoiler alert. Clark is not motivated by getting a P5 offer. He may get another one but if you think that’s what it’s al about you haven’t Ben paying attention to what has been going on in Birmingham

P5 offer or not. He's motivated by the millions of dollars that would come with a P5 HC offer. If at the end of the '19 season, Arkansas says "hey Bill, we want you to coach us in football. We'll pay you 3.5 million dollars"...you think he's going to turn that down??? No. He's gone in a heartbeat. Same thing for Littrell or any other coach who has success in CUSA. We just have to accept that CUSA HC gigs are a means to an end, a stepping stone for much higher paying gigs. And that's not a bad thing. Accept it. Embrace it.

It appears Littrell is currently the 11th highest paid G5 coach, and he is about to get another raise. The announcement could come any time win the next few days.

I'm not saying his new raise will keep him from jumping to a P5 job, but I think the raise will reduce the number of P5's that sniff around after this season. If his raise is enough, some middle to lower P5's will look at coaches with cheaper buyouts, if they think they can get the same quality. Of course the Bamas and Buckeyes of the world won't care about the cost of his buyout, but no G5 can stop them from snatching coaches.

(06-19-2019 04:01 PM)Nugget49er Wrote:  There seems to be consensus on the Charlotte games, so I will just weigh in on the game against the Appys. Last year they beat Charlotte 45-9. This year it will be much closer--one way or the other.

I think the Appys will be so mad that they will question their coaching hire. They would throw their cups of ice down onto the track surrounding the field if their concession stands served ice, and a tractor was seen plowing up the track in the spring. I think they are referring to that large space between the stands and the field as "The Pasture" and hoping to get Mast General Store to buy the naming rights.

@Appy 43%

Can all the UNCC fans just agree to allow CLT to handle the trolling of App fans? I think I know his true purpose, and that makes him a truly great troll.

This one is comically bad. I did have a good laugh trying to figure out what the point is you’re trying to get across