(06-20-2019 02:04 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  

(06-19-2019 10:28 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Hey, late 1st, early 2nd about the same. It's pick and hope territory.

I'm a Warriors fan (duh, my location) so I think of guys like Draymond Green at pick 35, Kevon Looney at 30, Tony Parker at 28. But there are a lot more guys out of the league in that 26-35 no mans land.

Toronto drafted correctly, they picked the guy they thought had the best chance to develop into somebody. This year Grant Williams may be that guy, or the European Luka Šamanić, or even Dylan Windler from a mid-major, with an unorthodox game like Joe Ingels has or Manu Ginóbili had beyond belief high level.

This is an intriguing draft that may produce 7 or 8 lottery busts, and 3 or 4 2nd round major contributors (Keep an eye on Jarell Brantley from College of Charleston, as a late pick who may be playing serious minutes in March). Most draft picks wash out, some years the entire 2nd round and all but a handful of 1st rounders -- this is not like the NFL, and with minimal college background it's a horrible crap shoot. It's the reverse of the NFL where you trade proven players for draft picks. In the NBA the draft pick is such a crap shoot you always take the so-so player you at least know can play in the NBA.

First-round picks are bound by a salary scale negotiated by the league and union. They are four year deals, with the first two seasons are guaranteed and the last two are team options. In 2012, Festus Ezeli was the #30 pick of the Warriors in the NBA draft. He was guaranteed two years, which came out to a total of $2,087,880 million. The Warriors picked up his option in the 3rd and 4th seasons and he made a four year total of $5,209,508 million.

Second round picks, as you probably know, have more flexibility in negotiations. Draymond Green was selected at #35 in that draft and the Warriors contract agreement was for $2.6 million for three years, with $900,000 guaranteed. So there is more guaranteed money, more security in the first round.

With regards to Siakam, he was borderline first round pick and most people saw him going in the 2nd round. Toronto did not have a 2nd round pick in that draft, so if they liked Siakam, they had to take him at #27 or find a way to trade into the 2nd round.

On a side note, the Warriors acquired the #41 pick from Atlanta yesterday. They have the #28 pick and #58 pick. There must be someone they are targeting with that pick. I am going to guess that they like Kyle Guy out of Virginia. They are going to need shooting without Thompson and Guy can flat out shoot.

The NBA draft is more difficult because of how young these guys are. You see them for three years in college football. In basketball, you get a year. By the way, how did you guys get Brandon Clarke to come to SJSU and how could you lose him?

The Warriors drafted correctly. They went for high upside in Poole. Very risky, but you have to see if they fill out. In general we saw a lot of "hope they fill out" first round picks. Very few ready players.

I am fully aware of the guarantee and non-gaurantee. Teams would rather have early 2nds than late 1sts since it's crap shoot territory.

I doubt Siakam would have gone back if he was an early 2 instead of a 1. But it's a very similar pick as Poole at 28, in that the NBA team decided why go for a lower ceiling but higher rated guy today, let's take a guy who maybe develops much higher. (Warriors made the low ceiling mistake with Evans, after making the maturity mistake with Bell the year before ... they seem to over correct; the had it right with Looney and Jones when they took injured players as sort of stash picks, and looks like one of them panned out ... so it's 25% hit territory).

Warriors Smailagić pick at 39, they panic purchased the pick trading two (2) 2nd round picks ('21 and '23) to secure it when they had 41 (for just the '24 2nd pick). This tells me they had strong hints the Sacramento Kings were going to steal him with the 40 pick.

They sold the 58 pick when Brantley was taken by Utah at 50 (this guy shot up on team boards from nowhere at workouts, when he proved to be a bigger, more athletic, better shooting and shot creating and better motor than Luguentz Dort ... which is why Dort went undrafted; that and the fact that he turned down a couple offers to be stash pick and play in Europe for a few years); there were probably 6 to 8 teams ready to draft Brantley in the 50s. Guy going at 55 to the Knicks meant there was nobody left to even take a flyer on -- Guy is a shooter, has more upside than his teammate Jerome (who lacks NBA athleticism, doesn't look like he can create space and lacks handles), but Guy is really under sized and will challenged on D.

The fact that Johnson (11), Samanic (19), Williams (22) and Windler (26) all went before the Warriors pick, shows how much emphasis the NBA pays to guys who have game.

Guys like Tacko Fall, Lu Dort and even Bol Bol, who lack consistently running motors and take plays off, or have too many weak points in their game are rated much lower by the NBA evaluators than the TV personalities. Also NCAA basketball is rated much lower preparation than the G-League now. Players in college are younger, have not yet matured physically and face too much weak competition (350 teams is too many, even the 75 major programs spread the talent too much, or the top 90 to 100 if you count the best Mid-Major programs who have Major program level budgets and facilities like Gonzaga, Cincy, Saint Louis, Memphis, VCU and so on) made worse by the best 40 prospects leaving each year. This makes guessing who is NBA ready a terrible guessing game, even as the teams are getting better at evaluating.

It will be interesting going forward in the next decade when there may be a legit path to a development league that simply take most of the top 50 HS players bypassing the NCAA altogether.