(06-01-2019 08:12 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote: (06-01-2019 07:45 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote: (06-01-2019 07:31 AM)owlsfan Wrote: Interesting that Georgia Tech pitched their #3 guy against the 4 seed, leaving their best 2 starters for today and tomorrow. I think that is a very smart move and wondered why more teams do not do that. You have to win 3 games and you might as well save your best pitchers for the hardest games.
It's a very risky move as almost every team in the post-season has a quality #1 starter capable of shutting down even the best teams on any given day. Second, most teams-- even the elite teams-- don't have 3 consistent, quality starters. You never want to increase the risk of playing at of the losers bracket.
I've heard Wayne say on many occasions that the crucial game in a double elimination tournament is game 2. I tend to agree. If you win game 1, then a win in game 2 puts you in the championship game. If you lose game 1, then you absolutely have to win game 2.
One advantage of using the #1 starter in game 1 is that you may be able to bring him back for an inning or two in a potential game 4 or 5. On balance, things probably favor going with #1 in game 1 and #2 in game 2. But if you think your #3 matches up well with your game 1 opponent (say, he's a lefty and they don't hit lefties well) then it's probably worth considering. Obviously, if you win game 1 with him, then you are very good to go.
I've said before, if I had exactly 3 quality pitchers, then one is going to be my closer, the other two are my #1 (in season, Friday) and #2 (Saturday) starters, and we will go Johnny Allstaff if we need to on Sunday until somebody steps forward. I don't think I would ever go Johnny Allstaff in game 1 of a regional.
I have a very good friend here in Austin who was a Division 1 head baseball coach --- he mentioned at lunch the other day that the 1-2-3 paradigm effectively gets thrown out at the end of the year.
He agrees with the idea that the 1-2-3 should be first two day weekend starters and closer. But effectively you start that 'rotation' at the beginning of conference; and unless you have a pretty good lead going into your last two or three series those three are effectively at 75-80 percent because of the week in, week out grind.
On top of that, you typically end conference play on a Saturday and start the tourney Tuesday -- no way in hell your 1-2-3 (even if not already at the 75% 'worn out' level) are even a shadow of effectiveness at conference tournament time. On top of that you effectively need at least 4 starts in 5 days, maybe 5 starts in 5 days for conference to win it out in the dual 4 team pod format.
That time between the conf. tournament and the NCAA is the normal week, but you have then really ripped through any sort of rest with the heavy load during conference play then the massive loading during the conference tournament.
Then once again with the single pod, you have to plan for at *least* three pitching games, maybe four during the first round. With a staff that has already been shellacked. He never made it to the Supers, but the coaches he was assistant under mentioned that that weekend was the *only* time a staff didnt undergo a net loss in effectiveness from about halfway through conference play to the end.
He laughed and mentioned that his nos. 6, 7, and upper pitchers were his absolute most important players during conference tournament, since between his top 5 pitchers he mentioned between them they were effectively a little more than 2 effective pitchers based on the wear time to that point. And they were the ones when during the season they didnt get a lot of mound time, he would go back and point out historically that they were the most important piece of the puzzle in the last couple of conference games until the supers.
If any of you all get to Austin, I'll be glad to introduce you all to him. Great guy. Runs a gym where I work out, and he absolutely loves to talk the nitty gritty about baseball.
