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2019 MAC OOC UPSET ALERT
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UofToledoFans Online
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2019 MAC OOC UPSET ALERT
It's the second week of May with little to look forward to but the subpar Detroit Tigers season ahead. Football is right around the corner but buzz won't kick up until fall camp approaches. The MAC should be wide open and his is my attempt at pinning down possible OOC upsets for the league.

Toledo:
@Kentucky 35%
Murray State 100%
@CSU 60%
BYU 50%

EMU:
@CCU 75%
@Kentucky 35%
@Illinois 55%
CCSU 95%

CMU:
Albany 90%
@Wisconsin 10%
@Miami 15%
NMSU 60%

WMU:
Monmouth 95%
@MSU 25%
GSU 70%
@Syracuse 20%

NIU:
Illinois State 90%
@Utah 35%
@Nebraska 35%
@Vandy 50%

BSU:
Indiana (n) 25%
Fordham 85%
FAU 50%
@NCstate 15%

KSU:
@ASU 15%
Kennesaw State 90%
@Auburn 5%
@Wisconsin 10%

Akron:
@Illinois 35%
UAB 35%
Troy 30%
@UMass 50%

Miami:
@Iowa 15%
TennTech 95%
@UC 35%
@OSU 5%

UB:
Robert Morris 95%
@PSU 15%
@Liberty 50%
Temple 40%

Ohio:
URI 100%
@Pitt 50%
@Marshall 50%
ULL 65%

BGSUcks:
Morgan State 80%
@Kansas State 15%
@LT 30%
@ND 5%

Excluding blowouts and games which the MAC teams are favored... (Taking teams that are between 20 and 50% to win their game) and only take the P5.5 teams counting as national upsets, here is what to look for:

Toledo @ Kentucky
EMU @ Kentucky
WMU @ MSU
WMU @ Syracuse
NIU @ Nebraska
NIU @Utah
NIU @ Vandy
BSU vs. Indiana
Akron @Illinois
Miami @ UC
UB vs Temple
Ohio @ Pitt

The G5 games in the 30-70% range is where we need to protect our image... Especially the home games.
(This post was last modified: 05-09-2019 10:49 PM by UofToledoFans.)
05-09-2019 10:48 PM
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cleveland Offline
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Post: #2
RE: 2019 MAC OOC UPSET ALERT
(05-09-2019 10:48 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  It's the second week of May with little to look forward to but the subpar Detroit Tigers season ahead. Football is right around the corner but buzz won't kick up until fall camp approaches. The MAC should be wide open and his is my attempt at pinning down possible OOC upsets for the league.

Toledo:
@Kentucky 35%
Murray State 100%
@CSU 60%
BYU 50%

EMU:
@CCU 75%
@Kentucky 35%
@Illinois 55%
CCSU 95%

CMU:
Albany 90%
@Wisconsin 10%
@Miami 15%
NMSU 60%

WMU:
Monmouth 95%
@MSU 25%
GSU 70%
@Syracuse 20%

NIU:
Illinois State 90%
@Utah 35%
@Nebraska 35%
@Vandy 50%

BSU:
Indiana (n) 25%
Fordham 85%
FAU 50%
@NCstate 15%

KSU:
@ASU 15%
Kennesaw State 90%
@Auburn 5%
@Wisconsin 10%

Akron:
@Illinois 35%
UAB 35%
Troy 30%
@UMass 50%

Miami:
@Iowa 15%
TennTech 95%
@UC 35%
@OSU 5%

UB:
Robert Morris 95%
@PSU 15%
@Liberty 50%
Temple 40%

Ohio:
URI 100%
@Pitt 50%
@Marshall 50%
ULL 65%

BGSUcks:
Morgan State 80%
@Kansas State 15%
@LT 30%
@ND 5%

Excluding blowouts and games which the MAC teams are favored... (Taking teams that are between 20 and 50% to win their game) and only take the P5.5 teams counting as national upsets, here is what to look for:

Toledo @ Kentucky
EMU @ Kentucky
WMU @ MSU
WMU @ Syracuse
NIU @ Nebraska
NIU @Utah
NIU @ Vandy
BSU vs. Indiana
Akron @Illinois
Miami @ UC
UB vs Temple
Ohio @ Pitt

The G5 games in the 30-70% range is where we need to protect our image... Especially the home games.

REALLY ... Every MAC team except Kent State has a chance to get at least one upset .... Kent State, however, gets the big $$$ and the $hit kicked out of them, setting the Golden Flashes up for yet another strong run in the MAC???
05-10-2019 05:32 AM
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Polish Hammer Offline
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RE: 2019 MAC OOC UPSET ALERT
Just sets up their AD (the highest paid in the MAC with the lowest paid staffs and funded facilities) his annual fall vacation trips to be wined and dined while the players get demolished and open conference play at 1-3...great formula.
05-10-2019 11:00 AM
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UofToledoFans Online
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RE: 2019 MAC OOC UPSET ALERT
Kent can beat ASU....
They will be improved...
Herm may get stunned ???
But yes, I doubt Kent wins more than 1 OOC.
05-10-2019 11:45 AM
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pono Offline
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RE: 2019 MAC OOC UPSET ALERT
i'd say most of those percentages are unrealistic. even money on illinois hosting eastern? vandy hosting NIU? Pitt hosting Ohio? yes, those are possible upsets but the P5 home team is gonna have the edge. Kentucky is now good at football and I'd say there's a better than 30% chance they beat both Toledo and EMU at home.
05-10-2019 03:21 PM
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Love and Honor Offline
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RE: 2019 MAC OOC UPSET ALERT
Coming soon: no FBS non-conference wins for Miami, okay MAC season, 6-6 record with no bowl.
05-10-2019 04:19 PM
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UofToledoFans Online
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RE: 2019 MAC OOC UPSET ALERT
(05-10-2019 03:21 PM)pono Wrote:  i'd say most of those percentages are unrealistic. even money on illinois hosting eastern? vandy hosting NIU? Pitt hosting Ohio? yes, those are possible upsets but the P5 home team is gonna have the edge. Kentucky is now good at football and I'd say there's a better than 30% chance they beat both Toledo and EMU at home.

Realistic for a MAC fan, not Vegas.

They never give us credit. That's why I predicted the UB OOC record last season... Kentucky lost a ton of talent and still struggled vs CMU last year. Not having Snell plus amped MAC teams coming us leaves us as 7-10 point dogs. To me that's 30-35%>
05-10-2019 05:48 PM
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bobcat_backer Offline
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Post: #8
RE: 2019 MAC OOC UPSET ALERT
(05-10-2019 04:19 PM)Love and Honor Wrote:  Coming soon: no FBS non-conference wins for Miami, okay MAC season, 6-6 record with no bowl.

02-13-banana
05-10-2019 06:56 PM
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pono Offline
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RE: 2019 MAC OOC UPSET ALERT
(05-10-2019 05:48 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  
(05-10-2019 03:21 PM)pono Wrote:  i'd say most of those percentages are unrealistic. even money on illinois hosting eastern? vandy hosting NIU? Pitt hosting Ohio? yes, those are possible upsets but the P5 home team is gonna have the edge. Kentucky is now good at football and I'd say there's a better than 30% chance they beat both Toledo and EMU at home.

Realistic for a MAC fan, not Vegas.

They never give us credit. That's why I predicted the UB OOC record last season... Kentucky lost a ton of talent and still struggled vs CMU last year. Not having Snell plus amped MAC teams coming us leaves us as 7-10 point dogs. To me that's 30-35%>

i mean, i love these games. watching a solid mac team sneak up on a p5 team in their place and win or come supringly close is good fun. i just wonder about the reality of roughly 500 MAC teams going into the #12 team in the country's place and having a 35% chance of victory.

Another angle on this thread could be
A) odds for non-conf wins
B) best potential upsets, to consider games MAC teams will be underdogs but could find a way to pull out. i.e. CMU-OK St, NIU-Nebraska...
05-10-2019 11:17 PM
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UofToledoFans Online
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RE: 2019 MAC OOC UPSET ALERT
(05-10-2019 11:17 PM)pono Wrote:  
(05-10-2019 05:48 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  
(05-10-2019 03:21 PM)pono Wrote:  i'd say most of those percentages are unrealistic. even money on illinois hosting eastern? vandy hosting NIU? Pitt hosting Ohio? yes, those are possible upsets but the P5 home team is gonna have the edge. Kentucky is now good at football and I'd say there's a better than 30% chance they beat both Toledo and EMU at home.

Realistic for a MAC fan, not Vegas.

They never give us credit. That's why I predicted the UB OOC record last season... Kentucky lost a ton of talent and still struggled vs CMU last year. Not having Snell plus amped MAC teams coming us leaves us as 7-10 point dogs. To me that's 30-35%>

i mean, i love these games. watching a solid mac team sneak up on a p5 team in their place and win or come supringly close is good fun. i just wonder about the reality of roughly 500 MAC teams going into the #12 team in the country's place and having a 35% chance of victory.

Another angle on this thread could be
A) odds for non-conf wins
B) best potential upsets, to consider games MAC teams will be underdogs but could find a way to pull out. i.e. CMU-OK St, NIU-Nebraska...
Kentucky is not the 12th ranked team. Their ceiling is 9 wins, and basement is 4. They have had one good year in the last 20 seasons and will be projected my most to sneak into a bowl game in 2019.
05-11-2019 08:49 AM
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pono Offline
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RE: 2019 MAC OOC UPSET ALERT
kentucky finished the year #12 and won a new years day bowl. yes, they may be down next season-or not. but they are the reigning #12 team in the country. people suggesting that a couple mac teams coming off disappointing seasons and losing key guys have a better than 1 in 3 chance of going into kentucky and winning is dreamy. of course, i hope UT beats them , and EMU too, but the odds are slim.
05-11-2019 06:23 PM
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Steve1981 Offline
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RE: 2019 MAC OOC UPSET ALERT
Best wishes to you guys, some teams, especially Akron are looking to be in ruff shape.

Quote:Akron:
@Illinois 35%
UAB 35%
Troy 30%
@UMass 50%

We are their best chance for a win and we lost our best players to graduation as QB, RB, TE, WR, LB and the list goes on, with a new coach. Guessing we'll see maybe 50 visitors and those will mostly be parents of the players.
05-15-2019 01:04 PM
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UofToledoFans Online
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Post: #13
RE: 2019 MAC OOC UPSET ALERT
(05-09-2019 10:48 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  It's the second week of May with little to look forward to but the subpar Detroit Tigers season ahead. Football is right around the corner but buzz won't kick up until fall camp approaches. The MAC should be wide open and his is my attempt at pinning down possible OOC upsets for the league.

Toledo:
@Kentucky 35%
Murray State 100%
@CSU 60%
BYU 50%


EMU:
@CCU 75%
@Kentucky 35%
@Illinois 55%
CCSU 95%


CMU:
Albany 90%
@Wisconsin 10%
@Miami 15%

NMSU 60%

WMU:
Monmouth 95%
@MSU 25%
GSU 70%
@Syracuse 20%


NIU:
Illinois State 90%
@Utah 35%
@Nebraska 35%
@Vandy 50%


BSU:
Indiana (n) 25%
Fordham 85%
FAU 50%
@NCstate 15%


KSU:
@ASU 15%
Kennesaw State 90%
@Auburn 5%
@Wisconsin 10%


Akron:
@Illinois 35%
UAB 35%
Troy 30%
@UMass 50%


Miami:
@Iowa 15%
TennTech 95%
@UC 35%
@OSU 5%


UB:
Robert Morris 95%
@PSU 15%
@Liberty 50%

Temple 40% UPSET

Ohio:
URI 100%
@Pitt 50%
@Marshall 50%

ULL 65%

BGSUcks:
Morgan State 80%
@Kansas State 15%
@LT 30%

@ND 5%

Excluding blowouts and games which the MAC teams are favored... (Taking teams that are between 20 and 50% to win their game) and only take the P5.5 teams counting as national upsets, here is what to look for:

Toledo @ Kentucky
EMU @ Kentucky
WMU @ MSU
WMU @ Syracuse
NIU @ Nebraska
NIU @Utah
NIU @ Vandy
BSU vs. Indiana
Akron @Illinois
Miami @ UC
UB vs Temple
Ohio @ Pitt

The G5 games in the 30-70% range is where we need to protect our image... Especially the home games.

05-bump here's how my projections went...
Missed 2 games, ULL vs Ohio and UB vs. Temple.
09-30-2019 12:43 AM
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RE: 2019 MAC OOC UPSET ALERT
Miami, NIU, and Kent St. What brutal non-conference schedules.
09-30-2019 08:38 AM
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DICK Offline
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RE: 2019 MAC OOC UPSET ALERT
(09-30-2019 08:38 AM)epasnoopy Wrote:  Miami, NIU, and Kent St. What brutal non-conference schedules.

For Miami, Ohio State is #4, Iowa is #14, and I believe UC would have been rated as well if they had played at Illinois or Indiana instead of at Ohio State.
10-01-2019 08:13 PM
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UofToledoFans Online
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RE: 2019 MAC OOC UPSET ALERT
(10-01-2019 08:13 PM)DICK Wrote:  
(09-30-2019 08:38 AM)epasnoopy Wrote:  Miami, NIU, and Kent St. What brutal non-conference schedules.

For Miami, Ohio State is #4, Iowa is #14, and I believe UC would have been rated as well if they had played at Illinois or Indiana instead of at Ohio State.

Yep. Fast starts but no adjustments for Miami. I like the talent level...

ASU 16, Auburn 7, and Wisconsin 8 right now? Wow Kent State.

Ohio also had a tough schedule, but with a mid level P5 and 2 high level G5s.
10-01-2019 10:24 PM
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RE: 2019 MAC OOC UPSET ALERT
(09-30-2019 08:38 AM)epasnoopy Wrote:  Miami, NIU, and Kent St. What brutal non-conference schedules.

Brutal? Why, Kent State had one winnable OOC game, and (barely) won it!

I'm relieved they didn't schedule four away P5 buy games.
10-01-2019 11:49 PM
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