(05-10-2019 07:52 PM)AllTideUp Wrote: Since we have nothing else to talk about and he's making some fairly bold claims, I thought I would post about it:
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Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
6h
The story I’m working on involves the groundwork ESPN & the Big 12 have laid in preparation for the next TV deal that may come sooner rather than later and the possibility of the Big 12 having three broadcast partners & an exclusive weekly national broadcast on an OTA outlet.
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Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
6h
Replying to
@LifeofFitz
ESPN has a habit of locking down properties long term. ESPN has also figured out they can bundle anything with SECN & make money. The B12 reacquiring T3 rights is the most important event since the B12 signed a GoR.
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Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
6h
B12 has basically two separate OTA contracts with Fox & ESPN. Its possible for the B12 to extend its deal with ESPN & not Fox with ESPN having an option on the remaining rights should Fox not participate. CBS is interested in replacing Fox.
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Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
6h
ESPN would prefer the Big 12 to extend primary deal & GoR within the next two years. The first step was the consolidation of rights from third parties.
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Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
6h
The relationship with Fox is damaged perhaps beyond repair opening the door for CBS. CBS fears losing exclusive SEC game.
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Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
6h
A contact with direct knowledge of discussions between the B12 & the network said ESPN would do whatever is necessary to secure the Big 12 as an ESPN property longterm.
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Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
6h
Both OU and UT have expressed their desire to remain in the Big 12 post 2025 to ESPN. I’m told an extension of the GoR before 2024 & as soon as 2020 is being discussed.
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Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
6h
The Big 12 has been advised that a consolidation of T3 TV rights and a commitment by way of an extension of the GoR is necessary to secure a new TV deal or an extension from ESPN.
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Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
6h
The Big 12 would most certainly add at least two additional members at the onset of a new contract.
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Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
6h
Its very possible that the Big 12 has an exclusive weekly national TV broadcast in the 3:30 slot on CBS.
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Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
6h
Obviously this makes the Big 12 more attractive to Pac 12 schools. Which is the intended byproduct of the actions.
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Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
5h
The Big 12 is interested in P12 members 1. UCLA 2. Cal 3. Arizona & 4. Arizona State. Interest does not mean contact or that it’s mutual interest.
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Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
5h
Now you have to wait for me to write the story. No debate on this stuff. Big assertions I feel confident enough to make public.
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Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
5h
One final point. The Big 12 is one big crazy island of talented misfit toys. UT & OU are bigger than any conference except the SEC. They both recognize how good they have it. If the money is ballpark - and it will be - they have no reason to leave and more reasons to stay.
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Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
5h
I’m waiting on stuff about WVU. Once I have that I will publish.
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Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
5h
If ESPN pulls this off they will control the rights of 3 of the 5 power conferences.
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Christopher Lambert
@theDudeofWV
·
5h
If that happens you can expect an informal scheduling alliance between the ACC, Big 12 & SEC with as many as 2 OoC games. Guess who wins if that happens.... ABC/ESPN.
1. There is no reason for CBS to fear losing SEC exclusivity because they gave that up as a concession when we expanded. What CBS may be afraid of is losing the SEC altogether if they don't get right with the FOX payout to the Big 10 which would make our payout around 300 million per year based on ratings alone. We are talking the 63 million range per school for TV revenues.
If that's the case I'm sure ABC would be quite happy to claim the most consistently watched time slot for college football on Saturdays.
If ESPN picks up the Big 12 T3 which they mostly have as only OU's is up for grabs, and they have their current 50% holding on T1/T2 rights, and FOX isn't interested there's no way in hell that CBS is replacing the SEC with the other 50% of T1 and T2 rights because that's not enough to fill their 2:30 time slot and N.D. is tied up with NBC.
2. ESPN picked up the T3 rights of the 8 Big 12 schools not named OU/UT and 3 conference championships games for a total of 30 million. That's a little over 3 million for essentially all of the Big 12's T3 which they will be putting on ESPN+ and at least a 1/3rd of that total is for the three CCGs.
That's a lowball offer when the Big 12 had been wanting 20 million for their CCG's. It doesn't convince me that the B12 is getting top dollar for their rights, especially if in order to get the GOR signed UT and OU have to give up more lucrative T3 deals.
It does position ESPN to control possible movement and to dictate terms if they remain.
3. By calling a vote on a new GOR in 2020 they could open the door wide open for dissolution if everyone is not in agreement.
4. Lambert hasn't changed an Iota's worth. He's taking a lot of snippets from a wide array of different articles and turning it into a narrative for gullible Eer's.
S.O.S. out of the Dud!
5. If FOX isn't interested in the other half of the Big 12 rights how are they going to have any leverage? Wouldn't FOX if it keeps the Big 10 rights want to spruce up that content value by dragging a key Big 12 property North? If so wouldn't ESPN's added interest in T3 and the other half give them they upper hand? And calling for a GOR renewal gives any who want to move an ample get away excuse and if UT and OU are among them it gives them motive (not taking a loss on T3), and ESPN leverage. Since ESPN owns the AAC outright and they are on T3 with ESPN+ does that not line up nicely with the other 8 Big 12 schools? Would that not put ESPN in position to utilize Texas and OU where they are worth more and to rebuild a P conference with the best of the AAC?
6. And what if FOX gets out of college sports altogether? I could see CBS going after the Big 10 to replace an SEC that might be headed to ABC. But CBS won't front the revenue to draw in OU or Texas. They don't do that. ESPN holds about 45% of the Big 10 rights now. Wouldn't it be money better spent if FOX gets out to go after the Big 10 more fully? And if so wouldn't ESPN be better positioned to broker movement of certain schools out of the Big 12 rather than to invest even more in it?
7. This just lends more credence to the possibility of OU and Kansas to the Big 10, Texas and Tech to the SEC, T.C.U. and W.V.U. to the ACC, and everyone else to be joined by the best of the AAC.
That gives ESPN all of Texas through the SEC and DFW as a prop up to the value of the ACCN. It meets the desires of the current Texas legislature.
It props up the Big 10 with the best they could hope for really.
It takes pressure off of N.D. to join in full and it still gives ESPN the majority rights to 3 strong conferences only they would be the SEC, B1G, and ACC which would likely end realignment in the Eastern and Central time zones. If the PAC truly fades the AAC is ready for promotion.