(02-21-2019 12:38 PM)JRsec Wrote:  All of the demographic information points to the inevitable decline. Baseball bottomed a decade or so ago and has been slowly showing growth since. Basketball is in decline. And now football is as well, just not in the Southeast and Southwest where the viewing numbers are up even as there is some decline in attendance (but not as much as elsewhere). Attendance issues are probably more tied to technology and disposable income rather than disinterest, but the viewing numbers aren't.

The B1G's last contract was for 6 years. I don't expect this SEC contract to exceed 10. Why? Let's say CBS inks the deal by 2021. Boomers began to be born in 1946. In 2016 they turned 70. By 2021 they will be 75 and within 10 years of that they are 85 essentially meaning that in that 10 years each year will see a precipitous decline of longtime football fans. No network is going to want more than a 10 year contract for a sport so beloved of a single generation. The average life expectancy of a man in the US as of 2016 was 67 years. That of women is 72 years. The baby boom began in '46 and ended in '62. The average boomer male started dying out in 2013 and will be statistically gone by 2029. The average boomer female will start dying out in 2018 and will be gone statistically by 2034. There will of course be Boomers that live much longer than that but as a statistical group they will be insignificant past those years.

The networks know this. So you can expect that football has probably peaked in popularity and with it a % of the valuation will decline. But as a live culturally significant sporting event it will linger in popularity past the lives of Boomers. The question with fewer high school participants, CTE's, and cultural shifts due to immigration to which football is as alien to them as they are to us, is how long will it linger?

Boomers are a big demographic for sure, but alumni bases and most state populations are only continuing to explode. Millennials are the largest demographic in the country already and plenty of them love football

Doesn't mean viewership will expand indefinitely, but it will be there to sustain the sport for at least another generation and likely two.

when is Generation X predicted to die out??? Gen X has a football fans too, IMO.

Given this info, to me it says we don’t need westward expansion at all and our best move for future expansion is still the elusive NC/Virginia expansion, which, with that kind of money we’d be offering and the networks getting a brand new Floridas worth of population added to the conference footprint, makes it far more lucrative potentially.

(02-24-2019 09:06 AM)10thMountain Wrote:  Given this info, to me it says we don’t need westward expansion at all and our best move for future expansion is still the elusive NC/Virginia expansion, which, with that kind of money we’d be offering and the networks getting a brand new Floridas worth of population added to the conference footprint, makes it far more lucrative potentially.

They'd both be valuable. Actually, I'd argue they'd be even more valuable in conjunction with one another.

Maybe 4 from the Big 12 and another 6 from the ACC...

I think 24 is a very good number because it's flexible with regard to scheduling, and with so many properties under one roof it then forces networks like ESPN to respect us a little more because the balance in negotiations is altered.

At that point you’re not really even a conference anymore. You’re more like a mini NFL with 2 conferences of 12 teams each split into a pair of 6 team divisions (or maybe 3 divisions of 4 teams)

It’s possible but I highly doubt anybody goes past 16

(02-24-2019 01:34 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  At that point you’re not really even a conference anymore. You’re more like a mini NFL with 2 conferences of 12 teams each split into a pair of 6 team divisions (or maybe 3 divisions of 4 teams)

It’s possible but I highly doubt anybody goes past 16

My expectation is that 16 will happen. For the most part, these conferences/schools tend to be conservative and protective when it comes to expansion. Radical change and growth, even when a lot of money may be on the table as an incentive, is not something that will be easily embraced.

Conferences don't want to be monopolized by one network in the industry. Reduced top conferences that end up bargaining with one network bidder, may not be best for them long-term when such contracts expire.

Maybe 2 or 3 mega-conferences are the future, but I'm not sold on it. To me, it would ultimately prove detrimental.

(02-24-2019 05:05 PM)OdinFrigg Wrote:  

(02-24-2019 01:34 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  At that point you’re not really even a conference anymore. You’re more like a mini NFL with 2 conferences of 12 teams each split into a pair of 6 team divisions (or maybe 3 divisions of 4 teams)

It’s possible but I highly doubt anybody goes past 16

My expectation is that 16 will happen. For the most part, these conferences/schools tend to be conservative and protective when it comes to expansion. Radical change and growth, even when a lot of money may be on the table as an incentive, is not something that will be easily embraced.

Conferences don't want to be monopolized by one network in the industry. Reduced top conferences that end up bargaining with one network bidder, may not be best for them long-term when such contracts expire.

Maybe 2 or 3 mega-conferences are the future, but I'm not sold on it. To me, it would ultimately prove detrimental.

To me the most probable is 16, but 18 under the right circumstances might not be far fetched, and consequently neither would 20.

Here's my thinking. If the ACC is truly secure the SEC can acquire the branding additions from the Big 12 that would complete our endeavor to have a much stronger hold on DFW. If we had to accommodate the little brothers to get the best two remaining pieces of the puzzle we might. However we would never go past 16 if we thought that down the road the ACC would be vulnerable and it sure looks like they might be.

So I believe for now we will go after the two best available targets from the Big 12. Then we wait.

If we ever go to 20 it would be with 4 from the ACC. My thinking is Duke, North Carolina (because they insist on being a pair), Clemson and Florida State. But that's only if the ACC is breached.

Honestly the money is looking so good that the SEC should now never have to settle for little brothers, Tagalongs or political stooges from anyone in any conference

You want to be part of this gravy train? You want to accept this invite we issued to you and you alone? Get your house in order and your divorce papers signed and come climb aboard!

https://www.mercurynews.com/2019/03/12/t...wer-shift/