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The battle for top 6
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dan10 Offline
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Post: #1
The battle for top 6
7 teams, 3 spots. Thursday will have a big impact on how this final stretch is going to go.

Delaware: 7-6 (@Towson, @JMU, @Drexel, Northeastern, Hofstra)
Drexel: 6-7 (@JMU, @Towson, Delaware, Hofstra, Northeastern)
Towson: 5-7 (Delaware, Drexel, @Hofstra, @Northeastern, W&M, Elon)
W&M: 5-8 (@Elon, Charleston, UNCW, @Towson, @JMU)
UNCW: 4-9 (Northeastern, Hofstra, @Elon, W&M, @Charleston)
Elon: 4-9 (W&M, UNCW, Charleston, @JMU, @Towson)
JMU: 3-9 (Drexel, Delaware, @Northeastern, @Hofstra, Elon, W&M)

Delaware- Is looking at 1-4 to 3-2. 1 win is probably enough, 2 locks up a top 6 seed. This weekend will determine their fate. A win Thursday about locks it up for them. Likely 9-9

Drexel- Is also looking at 1-4 to 3-2. 1/2 is ok this weekend, but both of those road games mean a lot, especially if Towson beats Delaware. Likely 8-10

Towson- A split this weekend would go a long way. They have the easiest final weekend of games. Likely 7-11

W&M- Must win Thursday and sweep the final road swing. Potentially a strong finish. Likely 9-9

UNCW- Toughest final stretch, but at home. Need a home split this weekend or they are done. Likely 5-13

Elon- Probably need to split this weekend and win 2 on the road at the end oe they need to win both this weekend. Doesnt look good. Likely 5-13

JMU- Needs to win both this weekend and their final weekend. Thats tough to ask. Likely 5-13

It looks to me that 8-10 will be enough. 9 wins is a guaranteed bye. So to me it appears to be a race for 6th between Drexel and Towson. Drexel needs to beat JMU and hope Delaware holds serve, otherwise Saturday's showdown in Baltimore may be the determining game.
(This post was last modified: 02-11-2019 11:50 AM by dan10.)
02-11-2019 11:50 AM
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dan10 Offline
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Post: #2
RE: The battle for top 6
Per the playoff status (playoffstatus.com):

Delaware has a 5% chance of falling out of the top 6

Drexel- 18% chance at #4, 30% at #5, 28% at #6, 15% at #7

Towson- 16% chance at #5, 22% chance at #6, 29% chance at #7

W&M- 27% chance at #5, 22% chance at #6, 17% chance at #7

Elon (9%)/UNCW(5%)/JMU (4%) have less than 10% at #6 with UNCW having the greatest chance at finishing 10th at 41%
02-11-2019 11:56 AM
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EvanJ Offline
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Post: #3
RE: The battle for top 6
Based on your likely records, you expect the top three to go 11-2 against the bottom seven.
02-11-2019 02:17 PM
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dan10 Offline
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Post: #4
RE: The battle for top 6
(02-11-2019 02:17 PM)EvanJ Wrote:  Based on your likely records, you expect the top three to go 11-2 against the bottom seven.

Actually I think they do better than that. 1 or 0 losses, but 2 is reasonable. This is a 3 team race and nothing more. In my likely I most likely double counted games aka had both teams win the same game. But with any matchup a two game set at home against the top top very well could be a split for most teams.
02-11-2019 02:44 PM
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dan10 Offline
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Post: #5
RE: The battle for top 6
For tonight's games of interest:

JMU favored by 2 over Drexel
Towson is favored by 2 over Delaware
Northeastern is favored by 6.5 over UNCW
02-14-2019 11:04 AM
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dan10 Offline
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Post: #6
RE: The battle for top 6
Our line has moved to JMU by 1.
Hofstra is now favored by 1.5
Towson and NU line still the same
02-14-2019 02:25 PM
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dan10 Offline
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Post: #7
RE: The battle for top 6
Games went our way, except our own game.

Hofstra was blowing out CofC before CofC came back to still lose.

Towson was down 6 with under 20 seconds left and forced OT before losing in 2OT

UNCW led by double digits at half and then got down double digits before making it semi close late.

So the standings are still similar to what they started as. It is very clearly now a 3 team race for 2 spots (Drexel, W&M and Towson). So Saturday is now a must win road game or else we are very likely looking at the play in round
02-15-2019 07:14 AM
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J.B. Offline
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Post: #8
RE: The battle for top 6
I would say that they need to win 3 of their last 4 games in any combination. But Saturday's game is crucial because they don't want to have to put themselves in a situation to have to beat the 2 best in the conference in 3 days, even if both are at home.
02-15-2019 07:49 AM
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dan10 Offline
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Post: #9
RE: The battle for top 6
(02-15-2019 07:49 AM)J.B. Wrote:  I would say that they need to win 3 of their last 4 games in any combination. But Saturday's game is crucial because they don't want to have to put themselves in a situation to have to beat the 2 best in the conference in 3 days, even if both are at home.

Why? Yes we play the top 2 at home still, but Towson plays both yet on the road. Towson has 3 games left that matter. Home against us, Home against W&M and home against Elon. Figuring they beat Elon that puts them at the same record as us.

Win Saturday and I do not see how they pass us as we would have the tiebreaker from head to head against them. With both us and them losing last night it appears the last spot only needs 7 wins. So unless Towson pulls a road upset against HU or NU we just need to win tomorrow and the rest should take care of itself. Losing tomorrow and we have quite the hill to climb as we would then lose the tiebreaker unless we beat NU.
02-15-2019 08:48 AM
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J.B. Offline
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Post: #10
RE: The battle for top 6
If they lose Saturday, but win their 3 home games, then that still puts them at 9-9 with most likely a tiebreaker over everybody except for W&M. This would be as a result of beating the #1 seed.

I think you're basically saying that if they can beat Towson, then they should be able to get the bye with 1 more win at home. Is that right?
02-15-2019 10:52 AM
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dan10 Offline
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Post: #11
RE: The battle for top 6
I am saying with a win over Towson I am not sure we even need to win another game.

If we beat Towson and lose out we would be 7-11 in conference

Towson beating Elon and a loss to us put them at 6-9. 2 games behind us with @NU, @HU and home against W&M. Do you think Towson is going to win 2 of those 3 games? We would have beat Towson both games so we win the tie-breaker so they have to get to 8 wins to pass us. Unless I am understanding wrong.
02-15-2019 11:35 AM
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hiroshimacarp Offline
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Post: #12
RE: The battle for top 6
I will just interject that I hope the days of worrying about whether we are 6th in the standings and better than 7-11 will be over soon.
02-15-2019 12:29 PM
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DrachenFire Offline
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Post: #13
RE: The battle for top 6
A-bleeping-men
02-15-2019 01:05 PM
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J.B. Offline
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Post: #14
RE: The battle for top 6
This was a team that was the preseason 9th place team. I think that from a fan's standpoint, the realistic goal for them was to get out of the basement and a bye in to the quarterfinals. Get to 6th and there's no difference between finishing in 3rd-6th place. As long as you're improving as a team, you're given that equal shot at winning a championship. So for this season, there's nothing wrong with having that discussion. Carp, I hope too that in future years, we're having a discussion about what postseason tournament Drexel could possibly be playing in after they win 20+ games and finish toward the top of the CAA. But for now....baby steps.
(This post was last modified: 02-15-2019 01:15 PM by J.B..)
02-15-2019 01:15 PM
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dan10 Offline
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Post: #15
RE: The battle for top 6
(02-15-2019 12:29 PM)hiroshimacarp Wrote:  I will just interject that I hope the days of worrying about whether we are 6th in the standings and better than 7-11 will be over soon.

Agreed, but the last time we managed that feat was in 2013. This is progress and we should acknowledge it. We have had 1 time where we finished that high since realignment, 0 since the conference got back to 10.

2017- 9th
2016- 10th
2015- 9th
2014- 7th (at 9-9 in conference)
2013- 4th (at 8-8 before Elon joined)

After the old CAA teams left we felt there was an opportunity to climb to the top and stay there. It did not happen. But we are finally moving in the right direction, with a promising team for next season. It is worth discussing and being happy about, even if it is a tiny victory.
02-15-2019 01:55 PM
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hiroshimacarp Offline
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Post: #16
RE: The battle for top 6
I’m the one who said I didn’t see a win on the schedule so I see some progress. I would like to see guys like Demir, Butler, and Wynter finish strong.[/quote]
02-16-2019 06:44 AM
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dan10 Offline
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Post: #17
RE: The battle for top 6
And in Drexel fashion all of yesterday's games went against us. UNCW beat Hofstra, JMU beat Delaware, W&M beat Elon. While 6th is likely out now, 7th is in jeopardy too. Very disappointing, to go from an outside chance at 4 with a 2-0 weekend, to free falling after going 0-2. Goes to show how minor the differences between the bottom 7 teams are.
02-17-2019 07:34 AM
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EvanJ Offline
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Post: #18
RE: The battle for top 6
The tiebreakers are bad in terms of moving up to 6 or higher. W&M swept you, and Towson will have the tiebreaker over you if Northeastern remains ahead of Charleston. Even if you win 2 more, you need William & Mary to lose 3 times, and they end hosting UNCW and at Towson and JMU. If you beat Delaware and Towson loses at Hofstra and Northeastern, you would go into the final week 1 game ahead of Towson, albeit with a harder final week.

Beyond wanting to do as well as possible in general, I could see teams preferring the 8 to the 7 if they thought they would do better against the 9 than the 10 and/or do better against the 1 than the 2. In terms of the teams behind you, JMU goes to Northeastern and Hofstra before an easy final week hosting Elon and W&M. UNCW goes to Elon, W&M, and Charleston. You swept Elon, so they need to win 3 of 4 to pass you if you don't win anymore. Elon hosts UNCW and Charleston and goes to JMU and Towson. Some of what I said may not be true if there are ties with more than 2 teams.
02-17-2019 11:01 AM
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hiroshimacarp Offline
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Post: #19
RE: The battle for top 6
towson was at least 15-20 points better than us yesterday. i won't give them 27 because they shot over their heads...but there was no indication we would ever make a serious run.

that's not a slim difference between two teams which is why the game was alarming. i remember being at odu when we got trucked one year. that was odu at the ted when the caa was at its peak.
02-17-2019 11:03 AM
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TribePride91 Offline
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Post: #20
RE: The battle for top 6
The race is to get to 5th. Assuming Charleston holds on to 3rd, no one should want to face them in a road game in the 1st round. My best guess is that it will take 8 to 9 wins to get there. Delaware might not to win any to finish 4th or 5th. The path is still unclear for most but if Hofstra and Northeastern keep winning, the number is more likely 8. Uncw got a nice tiebreaker piece last night.
02-17-2019 02:06 PM
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