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The battle for top 6
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J.B. Offline
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Post: #41
RE: The battle for top 6
(02-24-2019 02:35 PM)TribePride91 Wrote:  I think the best chance for Drexel is one win over either Hofstra or Northeastern and the Tribe sweeping Towson and JMU. If that happens, who wins the potential tiebreaker with you guys and the Hens?

Since Towson and Delaware beat Northeastern earlier and JMU now beat Hofstra, both the Tribe and the Dragons lose nearly all tiebreakers. If a bunch of teams end up 8-10, it looks like you guys would lose out unless the Tribe is not part of it. So, it seems to me that the Dragons are pulling for the Tribe and the Phoenix this week. In the last 3 weeks, the only bad performance the Tribe has had was at Northeastern. They easily could have won at Hofstra(we led much of the game before JWF basically went nuclear hot in the last 10 minutes). All the other 5 games were wins.

If Drexel is also 8-10, they would do so by beating either Hofstra or Northeastern, so that might help them in the tiebreaker picture as well.
02-24-2019 03:44 PM
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dan10 Offline
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Post: #42
RE: The battle for top 6
Thanks to their upset, JMU, not Towson look to be in control for the 6th seed. 1 win should do it for us, but neither are going to be easy games. Hofstra is in trouble, and unfortunately I feel like playing them on Thursday is asking for a beat down out of rage. A few weeks ago there was literally a win and lock up the top seed for Hofstra when they were at NU. Now Hofstra only has a 96% chance to lock up the top seed. First time in a long time their chances were not >99% to be the top seed. Thankfully 1 win would be enough for our guys, because if we beat Hofstra, there is no way in hell we will beat NU with them playing for the potential opportunity at top seed. Our likely finish is 8th.

28% chance at 6th
21% chance at 7th
33% chance at 8th

This has to be the latest in a season where so much in unknown for seeding. The only team who knows its seed is Charleston who is locked in at 3rd. NU/HU still alive for 1/2. 5 teams are still available for the 4 seed (W&M with the best chance). Elon and UNCW are the only teams who cannot reach the top 6 at this point.
02-25-2019 09:39 AM
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TribePride91 Offline
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Post: #43
RE: The battle for top 6
(02-25-2019 09:39 AM)dan10 Wrote:  Thanks to their upset, JMU, not Towson look to be in control for the 6th seed. 1 win should do it for us, but neither are going to be easy games. Hofstra is in trouble, and unfortunately I feel like playing them on Thursday is asking for a beat down out of rage. A few weeks ago there was literally a win and lock up the top seed for Hofstra when they were at NU. Now Hofstra only has a 96% chance to lock up the top seed. First time in a long time their chances were not >99% to be the top seed. Thankfully 1 win would be enough for our guys, because if we beat Hofstra, there is no way in hell we will beat NU with them playing for the potential opportunity at top seed. Our likely finish is 8th.

28% chance at 6th
21% chance at 7th
33% chance at 8th

This has to be the latest in a season where so much in unknown for seeding. The only team who knows its seed is Charleston who is locked in at 3rd. NU/HU still alive for 1/2. 5 teams are still available for the 4 seed (W&M with the best chance). Elon and UNCW are the only teams who cannot reach the top 6 at this point.

Dan, the crazy part is Hofstra still gets the 1 seed if they win either game this week due to their sweep of Charleston. But, should they lose both, the main tiebreaker then is who beat Northeastern. Towson did and JMU didn't. The Tribe beat neither one so they almost have to get one of the 2 road games this week. The only way the Tribe wins tiebreakers is if you guys are in it since we swept the Dragons. So, it is clearly better for us if you guys win one and better for you if the Tribe wins both this week. If you guys lose Thursday, you won't have any of the tiebreakers. But, if you win, you need a loss by Delaware on Saturday. Then, you would be past them unless the Tribe ends up in a big tie with you and everyone else at 8-10.

EvanJ will have better thoughts on Hofstra than I do. But, it makes sense that the 1 seed avoiding both Charleston and/or Northeastern until the final is the easier path. I doubt anyone wants to face either Charleston with the home court advantage or Northeastern right now. Hofstra has been the best team all year, but they are not playing as well right now. They may need the "easier" path of W&M/Delaware or Drexel rather than a semi against Charleston. Still would be very surprised if the champion is not one of the top 3. Only once(1993) has the champion not been a top 3 seed. But, the Tribe will be coming in playing well if they can win 2 more this week.

I actually think you guys are going to win one this week. Either you beat Hofstra, or Northeastern has nothing to play for on Saturday and you beat them. You guys are in control for the 6th seed(or better). All you have to do is win at home. Also, both you and the Hens might have something to play for Saturday while the opponents do not.
(This post was last modified: 02-25-2019 02:59 PM by TribePride91.)
02-25-2019 02:57 PM
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dan10 Offline
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Post: #44
RE: The battle for top 6
(02-25-2019 02:57 PM)TribePride91 Wrote:  All you have to do is win at home.

Well there we go. It is just that easy. Ignore the fact it is still against the top 2 teams in a 3 team conference...

I would be surprised but not shocked if we steal one of these games and get the 6 seed. The stupid part is this team did not have to do very much to achieve the bye. All they needed to do was split the road swing against JMU and Towson, which is not very daunting of a task, and we failed to do that. We made this difficult on ourselves. And while it is easy to say just win one home game, the fact is our backs are against the wall. We have a game lead, but as you said we lose every tiebreaker currently so we cannot afford to let another team make up ground or else we plummet.
02-25-2019 03:54 PM
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TribePride91 Offline
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Post: #45
RE: The battle for top 6
It is definitely not easy. The Tribe now faces the same road schedule with the prospect of falling down into the play in round too if it cannot win at least one of two on the road this week. All I am saying is that it is a decent chance for us to win one and for you guys to win one. You guys played well Saturday, Hofstra is not playing well right now and if you lose Thursday then at least Northeastern has nothing to play for on Saturday. If Drexel wins both, they might get the 4 seed and would be almost guaranteed the 5 seed. To the extent that I am ignoring the fact that it is against the top 2 teams it is because to have a good finish in our league, you have to win at home(against basically everybody). The Tribe lost 3 home games(to Hofstra in triple OT, to Northeastern, and to Elon....). That Elon game is the reason the Tribe has not already clinched a top 6 spot. Hofstra has lost to JMU and to UNCW recently, so there is a chance you guys can beat them. Saying that, I don't want any part of the Huskies for the Tribe, so we need Hofstra to beat Delaware on Saturday, or for the Hens to beat Northeastern again Thursday. Good luck Dan. It is going to be a crazy week. Might as well allow yourself to believe in the Dragons. They do control their own destiny for a top 6 spot.
02-26-2019 12:22 PM
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dan10 Offline
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Post: #46
RE: The battle for top 6
It is impressive that it is still attainable, especially down 3 major guys, 4 if you count the transfer out. I agree if we are ready to take the next step in the conference you have to hold home court, but I am not convinced Drexel is ready yet, especially with our injuries. The only break we may catch is the fact that we are playing Hofstra at their worst. The flip side is as you mentioned, if Hofstra does win, NU has zero reasons to put forth much effort over the weekend against us. That is in our favor. If we do upset Hofstra, NU will be ready to paste us in trying to steal the top seed.
02-26-2019 01:55 PM
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J.B. Offline
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Post: #47
RE: The battle for top 6
As much as I wanted them to get a top 6 seed, I don't really care anymore. True I really want them to win at least one of their next two because I'm a season ticket holder who will be at both games and want to see wins.

But if Drexel does get the 6 seed, I give them no chance of beating COC in SC, SC. If Drexel doesn't get the top seed, they'll have realistic shot to get a tournament win on Saturday.

One thing that is certain that they played just well enough this season to end their streak of 20 loss seasons. Worst they can do is 19 losses.
02-26-2019 03:05 PM
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TribePride91 Offline
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Post: #48
RE: The battle for top 6
Drexel has performed well, especially with being down so many players. But, everyone other than UNCW still cares a lot about the games this weekend because they all still have the dream of winning 3 straight.

Also, didn't you guys already beat Charleston in SC??? Why would you then think it could not happen again? In fact, the 2 games you had with the Cougars were instant classics. Dream a little, it is more fun this time of year. If you can beat either Hofstra or Northeastern this week, there is no reason you cannot win some games in the tourney too. Not saying it is going to happen, but the Dragons aren't 2-14, they are 7-9 with a chance to finish .500. They cannot possibly be as bad and you guys think they are.

I get not wanting to play them, especially since calls are likely to be extremely favorable for the Cougars. The Tribe just recently beat COC and we don't want to face them in the quarterfinals either if we can finish higher. The Tribe is in the same spot essentially. We cannot really believe we are a title contender if we cannot beat at least one of the two teams on the road that we play this week. Almost certainly Hofstra, Northeastern, or Charleston will win the championship, but Drexel and the Tribe are among the teams that could pull off an upset in the quarters. If you and JB see 2 wins this week, there is little chance that you will even end up 6th(but that would be the worst possibility). Staying out of the play in games gives all of the 6 currently eligible teams a shot. I know our 2nd matchup with the Dragons was a very tough game. If the Tribe and the Dragons were to play a 3rd time, it would be another tough battle. Both would be decent opponents for Hofstra in the semis as well.
02-26-2019 04:41 PM
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Post: #49
RE: The battle for top 6
(02-26-2019 04:41 PM)TribePride91 Wrote:  Dream a little
You must be new to the psyche of Drexel fans and Philly fandom in general. This is practically jubilant optimism for this board.
(This post was last modified: 02-26-2019 05:32 PM by jcohen42.)
02-26-2019 05:30 PM
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EvanJ Offline
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Post: #50
RE: The battle for top 6
(02-25-2019 02:57 PM)TribePride91 Wrote:  EvanJ will have better thoughts on Hofstra than I do. But, it makes sense that the 1 seed avoiding both Charleston and/or Northeastern until the final is the easier path. I doubt anyone wants to face either Charleston with the home court advantage or Northeastern right now. Hofstra has been the best team all year, but they are not playing as well right now. They may need the "easier" path of W&M/Delaware or Drexel rather than a semi against Charleston. Still would be very surprised if the champion is not one of the top 3. Only once(1993) has the champion not been a top 3 seed. But, the Tribe will be coming in playing well if they can win 2 more this week.
Everybody knows Hofstra has gotten worse. On the way to Saturday's game, I said that Hofstra allowed over 80 points in four consecutive CAA games for the first time, and now it's five. I think both of Hofstra and Northeastern would rather not have to play the other one and Charleston. I'm not going to choose who I prefer to play in the Quarterfinals until after Saturday.
02-26-2019 06:52 PM
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Dragon For Life Offline
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Post: #51
RE: The battle for top 6
I wish Drexel was playing W&M going into the final game of the season... haha Freddy Wilson for 3!!
02-26-2019 08:20 PM
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TribePride91 Offline
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Post: #52
RE: The battle for top 6
Yes, Drexel ruined several late season Senior Day moments for the Tribe.
02-28-2019 12:06 PM
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DrachenFire Offline
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Post: #53
RE: The battle for top 6
(02-26-2019 04:41 PM)TribePride91 Wrote:  Also, didn't you guys already beat Charleston in SC??? Why would you then think it could not happen again? In fact, the 2 games you had with the Cougars were instant classics. Dream a little, it is more fun this time of year. If you can beat either Hofstra or Northeastern this week, there is no reason you cannot win some games in the tourney too. Not saying it is going to happen, but the Dragons aren't 2-14, they are 7-9 with a chance to finish .500. They cannot possibly be as bad and you guys think they are.

I mean, they fouled on a three point attempt up 2 with a second left. So call that a lucky outcome. There's also the fact that Spiker is only 5-26 against CAA opponents away from the DAC.

Not losing 20 games and avoiding the play-in round are signs the program is climbing out of its hole, whether we win a CAAT game or not. Anything else is gravy.
02-28-2019 01:11 PM
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Water Boy Offline
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Post: #54
RE: The battle for top 6
(02-26-2019 04:41 PM)TribePride91 Wrote:  Drexel has performed well, especially with being down so many players. But, everyone other than UNCW still cares a lot about the games this weekend because they all still have the dream of winning 3 straight.

Also, didn't you guys already beat Charleston in SC??? Why would you then think it could not happen again? In fact, the 2 games you had with the Cougars were instant classics. Dream a little, it is more fun this time of year. If you can beat either Hofstra or Northeastern this week, there is no reason you cannot win some games in the tourney too. Not saying it is going to happen, but the Dragons aren't 2-14, they are 7-9 with a chance to finish .500. They cannot possibly be as bad and you guys think they are.

I agree with TribePride's assessment here. Also remember that last year we were up by 10 well into the second half before seemingly running out of gas. We have an almost totally different team this year, but like TribePride said both of the other games were close, there is no reason to think we couldn't win in the tournament.

That being said, I would prefer we sweep these next two games, and W&M get swept so we get the 4-5 matchup versus the chickens.
02-28-2019 01:56 PM
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dan10 Offline
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Post: #55
RE: The battle for top 6
(02-28-2019 01:56 PM)Water Boy Wrote:  ...there is no reason to think we couldn't win in the tournament.

Seriously? Drachen's comment above is a pretty good reason. In 3 years Spiker has 5 wins away from the DAC against the CAA and you think its reasonable to think this team can rattle off 3 in a row? That is a pretty compelling reason ignoring any other reason like lack of depth due to injuries, relying on freshman so heavily etc. I do think this team has a good chance to win a game in the tournament, 2 at the most. If Kurk and Troy were still available I would understand the optimism, but we dont have them available.

At this point it is all about building chemistry and improving for next year and the underclassmen, especially the freshman. Future is bright for sure.
02-28-2019 02:02 PM
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Water Boy Offline
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Post: #56
RE: The battle for top 6
(02-28-2019 02:02 PM)dan10 Wrote:  
(02-28-2019 01:56 PM)Water Boy Wrote:  ...there is no reason to think we couldn't win in the tournament.

Seriously? Drachen's comment above is a pretty good reason. In 3 years Spiker has 5 wins away from the DAC against the CAA and you think its reasonable to think this team can rattle off 3 in a row? That is a pretty compelling reason ignoring any other reason like lack of depth due to injuries, relying on freshman so heavily etc. I do think this team has a good chance to win a game in the tournament, 2 at the most. If Kurk and Troy were still available I would understand the optimism, but we dont have them available.

At this point it is all about building chemistry and improving for next year and the underclassmen, especially the freshman. Future is bright for sure.

I wasn't saying we would win the whole thing, just that it is not unreasonable to think we could beat Charleston. I'm not even saying I would expect us to win, just that I think we would have a decent (30-40% chance).
02-28-2019 02:09 PM
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dan10 Offline
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Post: #57
RE: The battle for top 6
I thought it said win the tournament not win in the tournament. My bad.

However both games they were up double digits most of the game, so despite both collapses, I doubt they would be that concerned about playing us. Maybe some doubt if even a minor collapse started, but this is still a different team than the ones that made those comebacks. Losing Harper really hurts us in that aspect. CofC is still not a good matchup for us.
02-28-2019 03:01 PM
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TribePride91 Offline
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Post: #58
RE: The battle for top 6
Great effort tonight guys. All is not lost. Elon blew the doors off JMU and the Tribe squeaked by the Tigers. You guys are still 6th. You might be 5th if you beat Northeastern Saturday and they have nothing to play for. Not sure of the 7-11 tiebreakers which will include either Towson or Elon.
(This post was last modified: 02-28-2019 09:24 PM by TribePride91.)
02-28-2019 09:22 PM
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Dragon For Life Offline
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Post: #59
RE: The battle for top 6
What are the tie breaker scenario?


If Drexel wins and Delaware loses? Does Drexel get 5th?

If Drexel loses who do they need to win Towson or Elon?
02-28-2019 11:10 PM
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TribePride91 Offline
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Post: #60
RE: The battle for top 6
(02-28-2019 11:10 PM)Dragon For Life Wrote:  What are the tie breaker scenario?


If Drexel wins and Delaware loses? Does Drexel get 5th?

If Drexel loses who do they need to win Towson or Elon?

The Dragons will be the 5 seed if you win and the Hens lose Saturday. If you win and they also win, you are the 6 seed.

Not sure about the tiebreakers between you, JMU and Elon/Towson if you finish 7-11. I know JMU would have the tiebreaker based on their win over Hofstra. Will have to go check to see how having one other potential team impacts it. Obviously, either Elon or Towson will be 7-11. JMU has to defeat the Tribe to get there which might happen since the Tribe no longer has to win to clinch a spot in the 4-5 game. Will try and go check.

OK, looks like you guys swept Elon, so any tie involving them, even including you and you should get the seed. You would not have the tiebreaker over JMU or Towson alone or in a 3 way with both of them because JMU beat Hofstra and Towson beat NE. You guys split with JMU and Towson and they split with each other so no initial tiebreak there.

So, even if you lose Saturday, you get the 6 seed if Elon beats Towson, regardless of the outcome of the JMU/Tribe game. If Towson wins Saturday, you cannot get the 6 seed or better without a win.
(This post was last modified: 03-01-2019 07:04 AM by TribePride91.)
03-01-2019 06:56 AM
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