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The battle for top 6
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TribePride91 Offline
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Post: #21
RE: The battle for top 6
Win the last 3 at home and the Dragons will likely be 4th.
02-18-2019 12:48 PM
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dan10 Offline
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Post: #22
RE: The battle for top 6
(02-18-2019 12:48 PM)TribePride91 Wrote:  Win the last 3 at home and the Dragons will likely be 4th.

Well sure, but let's realize 2 of those 3 are against NU and HU. All 3 are against the top 4. Not realistic for this bunch.
02-19-2019 07:22 AM
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J.B. Offline
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Post: #23
RE: The battle for top 6
Drexel can beat anybody in this conference at the DAC. They can also lose to anybody as well. These next 3 games will be a huge test for the team, and also for Spiker as a coach. Let's see if they have the guts to succeed when it's all on the line.
02-19-2019 07:48 AM
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TribePride91 Offline
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Post: #24
RE: The battle for top 6
(02-19-2019 07:22 AM)dan10 Wrote:  
(02-18-2019 12:48 PM)TribePride91 Wrote:  Win the last 3 at home and the Dragons will likely be 4th.

Well sure, but let's realize 2 of those 3 are against NU and HU. All 3 are against the top 4. Not realistic for this bunch.

I am not sure about that. All 3 games are at home. Win the first this weekend over Delaware and then things could build. Hofstra will have likely clinched the top spot this weekend and Northeastern might be locked into the 2 seed by next week as well. I cannot imagine 7-11 will get it done, but we will see. Look UNCW beat Hofstra and Delaware beat Northeastern, it can happen. Win Saturday, and then split next week and you guys are in good shape.

The Tribe has 2 games at home to teams we already lost to as well. Drexel has a better shot to win 2 of 3 than Towson does right now.
02-19-2019 10:48 AM
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dan10 Offline
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Post: #25
RE: The battle for top 6
(02-19-2019 10:48 AM)TribePride91 Wrote:  Drexel has a better shot to win 2 of 3 than Towson does right now.

Disagree wholeheartedly. Towson has 4 games left. 2 on the road, that they likely drop and 2 at home, which are both winnable. They have W&M and Elon at home. I do not see them doing worse than 1-1 in those 2 games. That would mean Drexel has to win 2 because we lose the tiebreaker. Drexel beating either HU or NU at home is way more daunting than Towson having to beat W&M (or steal a road game against NU or HU). I expect both teams to go 0-2 against the top dogs.

You are basically saying you think Drexel has a better a better shot at going 1-1 against NU and HU at home than Towson does at going 1-1 against Elon and W&M at home. You may be right, but that seems like quite the stretch. On top of the fact Drexel still has to beat Delaware, who is no slouch.
02-19-2019 11:10 AM
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dan10 Offline
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Post: #26
RE: The battle for top 6
While we are resting and preparing for Delaware the rest of the association is playing tonight. Our rooting interests tonight:

Hofstra to beat Towson (Hofstra is a 15 point favorite)
Charleston to beat W&M (CofC is a 1.5 point favorite)
Northeastern to beat JMU (NU is an 11.5 favorite)
Elon to beat UNCW (UNCW is a 1 point favorite though its moved to a pick 'em)
02-21-2019 07:17 AM
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EvanJ Offline
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Post: #27
RE: The battle for top 6
Hofstra outscored Towson 9-0 in double overtime to win 91-82. Towson led for over twice as long as Hofstra, and Hofstra didn't lead by more than 4 until double overtime. Towson led by 8 with 7 minutes in regulation and scored the first 6 points of the first overtime. William & Mary won 86-84 in overtime when Riller's three to decide the game missed. Northeastern and Elon won. 3 games went your way.
02-21-2019 11:03 PM
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dan10 Offline
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Post: #28
RE: The battle for top 6
At this point Towson is the only team that matters. They still have the easier ending slate with us having Delaware and them having Elon and W&M. So unless Towson goes 0-3 to finish we need to upset HU or NU at home in addition to beating Delaware. Not looking good. Dropping both of those "easy" road games last weekend was an absolute killer
02-22-2019 07:24 AM
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J.B. Offline
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Post: #29
RE: The battle for top 6
Not an impossible feat, unless the Dragons have put themselves into "quit mode". Delaware is a clearly a must win. The two teams are pretty equal in talent, even if they play contrasting styles. And even in the recent weak years, Drexel has a few wins against top tier teams at the DAC. I would actually find it unacceptable if they can't figure out a way to pull out 2 out of 3 wins at home, regardless of the competition.
(This post was last modified: 02-22-2019 07:44 AM by J.B..)
02-22-2019 07:44 AM
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dan10 Offline
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Post: #30
RE: The battle for top 6
With the skill gap between the top 3 and everyone else I would disagree. Winning 2 out of 3 at home is going to be quite the challenge. None of the 3 are good matchups on paper either. The DAC is not the tough place to play like it had gotten to be almost a decade ago. During out peak I would have agreed with you because of how relentless the DAC was on opposing teams, but that is not the current state.
02-22-2019 08:18 AM
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J.B. Offline
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Post: #31
RE: The battle for top 6
(02-22-2019 08:18 AM)dan10 Wrote:  With the skill gap between the top 3 and everyone else I would disagree. Winning 2 out of 3 at home is going to be quite the challenge. None of the 3 are good matchups on paper either. The DAC is not the tough place to play like it had gotten to be almost a decade ago. During out peak I would have agreed with you because of how relentless the DAC was on opposing teams, but that is not the current state.

Home court advantage is more than just how many fans are there or how loud it is or how close the students are to the court. Much of it is just that the road team is a not playing on their familiar digs, or is just travel tired, which gives the home team the advantage. Even though crowds at the DAC have been very small the last 4 years the home court difference in the Spiker Era has been staggering. Since Spiker's debut, Drexel is 22-18 at the DAC, and just 9-37 on the road.

Conversely, when Bruiser was here and the DAC was a dump and considered one of the toughest places to play in the CAA, his teams actually lost a lot of games at home that they should have won. Bruiser's teams ironically seemed to play better on the road.
02-22-2019 09:02 AM
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jcohen42 Offline
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Post: #32
RE: The battle for top 6
It's worth noting that, at least in conference play, that while Drexel has the worst CAA road record in the conference during Spiker's tenure, it also has the worst CAA home record. It just boils down to the fact that Drexel is still on the way back, and a lot of those records are going to be weighed down by the first couple seasons. I know the road record is concerning, but the sample size is still not very large to suggest that the home-road splits are unusually high for a bad mid-major team.

Now, if Drexel wins all three of their remaining home games, I'll raise an eyebrow a bit. We're expecting them to win maybe one of the remaining games, finishing 5-4 at home in-conference and 2-7 on the road; not great, but not necessarily an abnormal split either. But win all three and it becomes a split worth watching.

In the coming seasons if Drexel is competing for the top of the conference, and they keep losing road games, then I'm willing to look at it as a significant factor. But if they're still mediocre, I'm treating their road splits as just noise indicative of other struggles.
02-22-2019 10:15 AM
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dan10 Offline
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Post: #33
RE: The battle for top 6
Exactly. The teams we are playing we just dont match up with. Skill wise we are equal to Delaware and below NU or HU. Barely above .500 at home is not an advantage, as jcohen mentioned, that is actually quite poor. With where our program is talent wins most of the time, no matter the location. That was not the case in Bru's tenure.
02-22-2019 11:35 AM
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dan10 Offline
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Post: #34
RE: The battle for top 6
Conversely is there any team in the CAA where you would play at home and feel confident we are going to win? My guess is the answer is possibly Elon, then the next question is is it because they are just that bad or is it because you feel we have some advantage at home. My gut says it has nothing to do with the DAC and everything to do with, we are just a better team than they are.
02-22-2019 11:36 AM
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EvanJ Offline
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Post: #35
RE: The battle for top 6
I'm not saying these are the actual probabilities, if you have a 60 percent chance at beating Delaware and 30 percent each in the last two, your average wins is 1.2. It gives you a 5.4 percent chance at 3, 28.8 percent chance at 2, 46.2 percent chance at 1, and 19.6 percent chance at 0. It makes a 34.2 percent chance of winning at least 2.

As for J.B. mentioning travel, your opponents have short trips to you. Your farthest away opponent is Northeastern, who will have a short trip from Delaware.
(This post was last modified: 02-22-2019 12:43 PM by EvanJ.)
02-22-2019 12:42 PM
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TribePride91 Offline
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Post: #36
RE: The battle for top 6
Well Towson lost their first 2. They probably should have beaten Hofstra.
02-23-2019 02:50 PM
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dan10 Offline
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Post: #37
RE: The battle for top 6
Those were both expected losses for Towson. They have 2 winnable games to end. They only need to go 1-1 for the bye, unless Drexel wins today and upsets either HU or NU. So nothing has changed and has gone as expected. UNCW made it much clearer by losing to Elon. With their win over Hofstra they became scary due to tiebreakers, but they killed that. Tribe looking comfortable for #5, outside chance at 4
02-23-2019 03:00 PM
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dan10 Offline
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Post: #38
RE: The battle for top 6
Not much changed. UNCW losing helps and keeps them out of the picture, however with JMU beating Hofstra now, it puts them right back in the picture. We still need help, either Towson losing out at home or us pulling an upset over Hofstra or NU
02-24-2019 08:38 AM
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TribePride91 Offline
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Post: #39
RE: The battle for top 6
Hofstra has lost 2 of their last 3 and should have lost to Towson. I am hoping they beat Delaware or they might lose the #1 seed to Northeastern. They are still really good, not sure what is happening with them.
02-24-2019 08:50 AM
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TribePride91 Offline
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Post: #40
RE: The battle for top 6
I think the best chance for Drexel is one win over either Hofstra or Northeastern and the Tribe sweeping Towson and JMU. If that happens, who wins the potential tiebreaker with you guys and the Hens?

Since Towson and Delaware beat Northeastern earlier and JMU now beat Hofstra, both the Tribe and the Dragons lose nearly all tiebreakers. If a bunch of teams end up 8-10, it looks like you guys would lose out unless the Tribe is not part of it. So, it seems to me that the Dragons are pulling for the Tribe and the Phoenix this week. In the last 3 weeks, the only bad performance the Tribe has had was at Northeastern. They easily could have won at Hofstra(we led much of the game before JWF basically went nuclear hot in the last 10 minutes). All the other 5 games were wins.
02-24-2019 02:35 PM
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