(03-01-2019 05:10 PM)FauqDawg10 Wrote:  

(03-01-2019 03:56 PM)TribePride91 Wrote:  It is the defense that may give us a chance.(up to 15% now on some irrelevant site)

To clarify--that is 15% to *make* the title game. 5% to cut down the nets, which seems fair enough.

Correct. I think most of us would agree that Northeastern is the favorite and then some combination of Charleston and Hofstra next. It would be a significant upset for any of the other teams to even reach the title game, much less win it. But, I stick by my prediction from a few weeks back. Not sure if things will work out for 3 days in Charleston, but the probability is definitely higher than it was a month ago.

(03-01-2019 02:56 PM)LeadBolt Wrote:  

(03-01-2019 02:53 PM)Tribal Wrote:  

(03-01-2019 02:13 PM)LeadBolt Wrote:  

(03-01-2019 12:53 PM)Tribal Wrote:  OMGosh, would you masochists drop it? Geeze.

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Says the guy who was sued up to rush the floor...

Whatever being sued up means

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Typo should be "queued". Have I mentioned that I hate spell check?

Yeah, kinda my point...I was sued up five years ago...at the game.

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The outcome of tomorrow's JMU game will say a lot about this team's potential to run the tournament gauntlet. JMU has motivation to avoid the Saturday games.

If the Tribe show the toughness to get that final road win tomorrow, can get to the line 20+ times in the tournament games AND average closer to 80% with FT's, then they have a legitimate shot. The FT shooting, low turnovers and defensive focus go hand and hand with the mental confidence needed to come out on top. I think the tightened rotation has allowed those players to find their rhythm and is the reason for this run and improvement. At some point in the tournament, though, our bench beyond the current seven will have to contribute. Hopefully, they will exhibit the same confidence and toughness when their time comes. I, also, think the academic break has a far bigger impact on the Tribe than any other conference team during the tournament weekend.

(03-01-2019 07:12 PM)Tribeheart Wrote:  If the Tribe show the toughness to get that final road win tomorrow, can get to the line 20+ times in the tournament games AND average closer to 80% with FT's, then they have a legitimate shot.

If the Tribe gets 16+ points a game from the FT line, we're a better than 5% chance to win it all, that's for sure.

(03-01-2019 09:50 PM)TribeInTheBurg Wrote:  

(03-01-2019 07:12 PM)Tribeheart Wrote:  If the Tribe show the toughness to get that final road win tomorrow, can get to the line 20+ times in the tournament games AND average closer to 80% with FT's, then they have a legitimate shot.

If the Tribe gets 16+ points a game from the FT line, we're a better than 5% chance to win it all, that's for sure.

Just for reference, since 2009 W&M is 69-29 when they score 16 or more from the FT line.

Conference only stats:

FREE THROW PCT G FTM FTA Pct
1. Hofstra 17 303 381 .795
2. Charleston 17 232 297 .781
3. Northeastern 17 240 316 .759
4. James Madison 17 209 276 .757
5. Drexel 17 236 313 .754
6. Delaware 17 224 306 .732
7. Elon 17 151 207 .729
8. UNCW 17 240 331 .725
9. Towson 17 175 254 .689
10. William & Mary 17 198 292 .678

TURNOVER MARGIN G Team Avg. Opponent Avg. Margin
1. Hofstra 17 139 8.2 214 12.6 +4.41
2. Charleston 17 176 10.4 205 12.1 +1.71
3. Northeastern 17 184 10.8 210 12.4 +1.53
4. Drexel 17 174 10.2 171 10.1 -0.18
5. Delaware 17 179 10.5 172 10.1 -0.41
6. Towson 17 180 10.6 162 9.5 -1.06
7. William & Mary 17 218 12.8 199 11.7 -1.12
8. UNCW 17 192 11.3 166 9.8 -1.53
9. Elon 17 196 11.5 169 9.9 -1.59
10. James Madison 17 192 11.3 162 9.5 -1.76

That turnover margin stat may have actually improved recently. It seems like we are forcing more turnovers lately on defense.

As for the ft stat, it is a significant dropoff from last season. Hofatra not only makes a high percentage, they get a lot of attempts. I just hope if we get a 3rd shot at them that there is not a wide disparity on attempts. The Tribe had 34 attempts in the two games total vs Hofstra. The Pride had 33 in the 2nd game with us alone. In both games, they made 43 fts which is significantly more than we even attempted.

I'm looking forward to today's game.

I would guess that Tony will look to minimize playing time for any of the walking wounded and maybe give some minutes to those who might be the next man up in a 3 game/ 4 day tourney, on the road vs. an instate rival who desperately needs a win to avoid the play-in game.

If we find a way to win under those circumstances, I would be even more encouraged going to Charleston.

FT's and TO's have been this team's Achilles heel. Despite that they are coming together and finding ways to win at the right portion of the season.

Hope to see you in Harrisonburg and Charleston. I'll be there cheering on the Tribe to continue their winning ways of late.

Go Tribe!

All you ever wanted to know about the tie-breaker scenarios:

https://twitter.com/CAABasketball/status...50242?s=20

(03-02-2019 12:03 PM)Tribeheart Wrote:  All you ever wanted to know about the tie-breaker scenarios:

https://twitter.com/CAABasketball/status...50242?s=20

That makes my head hurt. JUST WIN BABY!

So by my count:

#1 Hofstra
#2 NE
#3 Charleston
#4 W&M
#5 Delaware
#6 Drexel
#7 Elon
#8 JMU
#9 Towson
#10 UNCW

Elon lost twice in ot to Northeastern. That could be a tough quarterfinal if they get there.

I think Wilmington is a tough out if they get a decent crowd. The fact that it starts on Saturday gives Wilmington fans a good reason to go for at least a game.