Projections are always iffy, and with zero data in terms of ACC Network payouts or even the tier 1 contract since it was extended, it's REALLY iffy... but that's never stopped us from trying!

Given the Big Ten's (very aggressive) projections, plus the recent release of 2018 SEC tax information, we can start projecting conference revenue gaps for the next 4 years or so.

Year: B1G est. dist. ACC est. dist. diff
2018: $50,000,000 $29,500,000 $20,500,000
2019: $51,500,000 $37,400,000 $14,100,000
2020: $53,045,000 $41,800,000 $11,245,000
2021: $54,636,350 $42,200,000 $12,436,350
2022: $56,275,441 $47,100,000 $9,175,441 (83.7%)
2023: $57,963,704 $48,000,000 $9,963,704 (82.8%)
2024: $59,702,615 $46,800,000 $12,902,615
2025: $61,493,693 $49,700,000 $11,793,693
2026: $63,338,504 $50,600,000 $12,738,504
2027: $65,238,659 $49,500,000 $15,738,659
2028: $67,195,819 $52,400,000 $14,795,819
2029: $69,211,694 $53,300,000 $15,911,694

If you want to check my math:

https://accfootballrx.blogspot.com/2019/...-2029.html

https://accfootballrx.blogspot.com/2019/...cials.html

https://accfootballrx.blogspot.com/2019/...tions.html

(02-04-2019 12:10 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Projections are always iffy, and with zero data in terms of ACC Network payouts or even the tier 1 contract since it was extended, it's REALLY iffy... but that's never stopped us from trying!

Given the Big Ten's (very aggressive) projections, plus the recent release of 2018 SEC tax information, we can start projecting conference revenue gaps for the next 4 years or so.

Year: B1G est. dist. ACC est. dist. diff
2018: $50,000,000 $29,500,000 $20,500,000
2019: $51,500,000 $37,400,000 $14,100,000
2020: $53,045,000 $41,800,000 $11,245,000
2021: $54,636,350 $42,200,000 $12,436,350
2022: $56,275,441 $47,100,000 $9,175,441 (83.7%)
2023: $57,963,704 $48,000,000 $9,963,704 (82.8%)
2024: $59,702,615 $46,800,000 $12,902,615
2025: $61,493,693 $49,700,000 $11,793,693
2026: $63,338,504 $50,600,000 $12,738,504
2027: $65,238,659 $49,500,000 $15,738,659
2028: $67,195,819 $52,400,000 $14,795,819
2029: $69,211,694 $53,300,000 $15,911,694

If you want to check my math:

https://accfootballrx.blogspot.com/2019/...-2029.html

https://accfootballrx.blogspot.com/2019/...cials.html

https://accfootballrx.blogspot.com/2019/...tions.html

The B1G has been touting itself as a behemoth crushing the other conferences. Somehow, the ACC hasn't been crushed. I suspect all the B1G touting has to do with their long range population worries. No one can reasonably predict the B1G's revenues over the next ten years, much less the ACC's. Who knows what how the ACC Network will do.

(02-04-2019 01:38 PM)Hallcity Wrote:  ...No one can reasonably predict the B1G's revenues over the next ten years, much less the ACC's. Who knows what how the ACC Network will do.

True. I mention in my blog article that those Big Ten projections go well past the end of their current TV contract (plus there are some other issues I have with them). OTOH, I have ZERO history from the ACC Network so far, so if you want to question my ACC projections go right ahead.

You can't take those numbers in isolation for one year and see what's going on.

https://csnbbs.com/thread-869587.html

Here is a year over year comparison. The trends aren't up they are down.

Also Mark if you are still using the SEC rates to project ACCN revenue like you were doing earlier that's a mistake. Nobody is making what the SEC is making in rates and it is because of the % of actual viewers out of the number of total possible viewers that we draw within our footprint. Our out of footprint rate is 25 cents. Our in footprint rate varies between 1.25 and 1.30. Our average for all subscriptions is around 74 cents. To put that into perspective the Big 10 only averages 49 cents and the PAC averages 11 cents per subscription per month. I expect the ACC with a solid effort might be able to average 35 cents.

The post I want you to notice is the year over year comparison which is post #6 in that thread.

But as with all things we'll see.