This site, playoffstatus.com, is a good one to look at scenarios for the CAA regular season. It updates after just about every day of play.

Currently, Hofstra is at 88% to get the top seed.

http://playoffstatus.com/colonialathleti...dings.html

I'm still not sold on Drexel being any good despite being in 4th place right now. 3 of those wins were against the conference bottom feeders at home. Drexel is 2-20 in their CAA road games in the Spiker era, so they still have to learn to win on the road. They also trailed by 10 or more points in every CAA game thus far. So despite being in 4th place right now, this projection still gives Drexel a 30% chance of finishing in the bottom 4. Seems realistic.

(01-21-2019 09:51 AM)J.B. Wrote:  I'm still not sold on Drexel being any good despite being in 4th place right now. 3 of those wins were against the conference bottom feeders at home. Drexel is 2-20 in their CAA road games in the Spiker era, so they still have to learn to win on the road. They also trailed by 10 or more points in every CAA game thus far. So despite being in 4th place right now, this projection still gives Drexel a 30% chance of finishing in the bottom 4. Seems realistic.

This may be true, but one of those wins was @CofC and the win against Towson ended a 7 game losing streak to them. Drexel has not been blown out, even in their losses to the top teams on the road (UNCW was obviously the closest to getting away the quickest). There is plenty of reason to believe in them being successful. For the same reasons you mentioned about getting down big often, there is plenty of reasons to see a poor finish as well. They are a talented team with poor defense. That leads to inconsistencies.

Update after last night... Hofstra now at 94% for first. NU very slight favorite for 2nd, 33% ahead of Charleston at 32%. Delaware at 21%. Drexel 5, UNCW 3.

Incredible for the halfway point to have such a commanding lead for the top seed. We have had some runaways in the past but in general its a nail biter for seeding. For Hofstra's sake, keep winning and you may be able to get into the at large discussion if you falter in N. Charleston.

Further stating where HU is at, they are 45 in the latest NET ranking, which is more favorable than RPI currently which has them at 54. The obvious hit on HU is their SOS which is at 236. The positive is they have no bad losses, maybe. NET has @Marshall as a bad loss the rest are good. RPI has all as top 75 losses. The problem is wins where @Stony Brook is the best win OOC for HU (144 NET, 72 RPI)

All 3 losses were on the road and are to top 100 RPI teams (Marshall- 68, Maryland- 23, VCU- 31)
Those teams NET rankings are Marshall-140 , Maryland- 22, and VCU- 57

Best NET wins are NU(114) and CofC (113). So not a lot of opportunity to improve beyond just winning and piling up wins. Key for Hofstra is if they lose, NU and CofC can be their loss or losses. Any loss to any other CAA team will kill any small chance they have at an at large. Hofsta has both on the road remaining.

NCAA loves to exclude mids with gaudy records, so HU, once again, could be an interesting case should they keep winning and fall in the championship game. We may get to see how much the NET really means too.

Hofstra wont get in without auto bid.

(01-29-2019 03:45 PM)solohawks Wrote:  Hofstra wont get in without auto bid.

Second that. The NCAA has all but eliminated at-large bids for mid-majors. Even winning streaks like 19 in a row for Drexel or 25 in a row for Murray State aren't enough.

That's why I've been suggesting for years that the mid-major conferences break away from the NCAA Tournament and start their own tournament. I actually think that the idea of having a national championship tournament that eliminates the power conferences would actually be more appealing for top players to attend mid-major schools, and would make help lesson that talent gap.

(01-29-2019 04:06 PM)J.B. Wrote:  

(01-29-2019 03:45 PM)solohawks Wrote:  Hofstra wont get in without auto bid.

Second that. The NCAA has all but eliminated at-large bids for mid-majors. Even winning streaks like 19 in a row for Drexel or 25 in a row for Murray State aren't enough.

That's why I've been suggesting for years that the mid-major conferences break away from the NCAA Tournament and start their own tournament. I actually think that the idea of having a national championship tournament that eliminates the power conferences would actually be more appealing for top players to attend mid-major schools, and would make help lesson that talent gap.

Common sense will never prevail. Not sexy enough. The masses want those possible Cinderella teams in the big dance

(01-29-2019 04:06 PM)J.B. Wrote:  

(01-29-2019 03:45 PM)solohawks Wrote:  Hofstra wont get in without auto bid.

Second that. The NCAA has all but eliminated at-large bids for mid-majors. Even winning streaks like 19 in a row for Drexel or 25 in a row for Murray State aren't enough.

That's why I've been suggesting for years that the mid-major conferences break away from the NCAA Tournament and start their own tournament. I actually think that the idea of having a national championship tournament that eliminates the power conferences would actually be more appealing for top players to attend mid-major schools, and would make help lesson that talent gap.

I disagree.

An FCS version for basketball would be as exciting as the current CIT

(01-29-2019 08:47 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

(01-29-2019 04:06 PM)J.B. Wrote:  

(01-29-2019 03:45 PM)solohawks Wrote:  Hofstra wont get in without auto bid.

Second that. The NCAA has all but eliminated at-large bids for mid-majors. Even winning streaks like 19 in a row for Drexel or 25 in a row for Murray State aren't enough.

That's why I've been suggesting for years that the mid-major conferences break away from the NCAA Tournament and start their own tournament. I actually think that the idea of having a national championship tournament that eliminates the power conferences would actually be more appealing for top players to attend mid-major schools, and would make help lesson that talent gap.

I disagree.

An FCS version for basketball would be as exciting as the current CIT

I'm actually thinking it would be as exciting as the FCS Football Playoffs. The difference would be that a mid-major national championship would be attracting the best mid-major teams with mostly 20+ win seasons. I think that a final four could sell out an NBA sized arena.

The CIT is different because it's a bunch of 2nd tier mid-majors with barely winning records competing for basically nothing.

(01-29-2019 09:05 PM)J.B. Wrote:  

(01-29-2019 08:47 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

(01-29-2019 04:06 PM)J.B. Wrote:  

(01-29-2019 03:45 PM)solohawks Wrote:  Hofstra wont get in without auto bid.

Second that. The NCAA has all but eliminated at-large bids for mid-majors. Even winning streaks like 19 in a row for Drexel or 25 in a row for Murray State aren't enough.

That's why I've been suggesting for years that the mid-major conferences break away from the NCAA Tournament and start their own tournament. I actually think that the idea of having a national championship tournament that eliminates the power conferences would actually be more appealing for top players to attend mid-major schools, and would make help lesson that talent gap.

I disagree.

An FCS version for basketball would be as exciting as the current CIT

I'm actually thinking it would be as exciting as the FCS Football Playoffs. The difference would be that a mid-major national championship would be attracting the best mid-major teams with mostly 20+ win seasons. I think that a final four could sell out an NBA sized arena.

The CIT is different because it's a bunch of 2nd tier mid-majors with barely winning records competing for basically nothing.

Gonzaga is the #1 mid major and Wofford is #2. I dont see a mid.major championship game between those two being a big draw

(01-29-2019 10:20 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

(01-29-2019 09:05 PM)J.B. Wrote:  

(01-29-2019 08:47 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

(01-29-2019 04:06 PM)J.B. Wrote:  

(01-29-2019 03:45 PM)solohawks Wrote:  Hofstra wont get in without auto bid.

Second that. The NCAA has all but eliminated at-large bids for mid-majors. Even winning streaks like 19 in a row for Drexel or 25 in a row for Murray State aren't enough.

That's why I've been suggesting for years that the mid-major conferences break away from the NCAA Tournament and start their own tournament. I actually think that the idea of having a national championship tournament that eliminates the power conferences would actually be more appealing for top players to attend mid-major schools, and would make help lesson that talent gap.

I disagree.

An FCS version for basketball would be as exciting as the current CIT

I'm actually thinking it would be as exciting as the FCS Football Playoffs. The difference would be that a mid-major national championship would be attracting the best mid-major teams with mostly 20+ win seasons. I think that a final four could sell out an NBA sized arena.

The CIT is different because it's a bunch of 2nd tier mid-majors with barely winning records competing for basically nothing.

Gonzaga is the #1 mid major and Wofford is #2. I dont see a mid.major championship game between those two being a big draw

And of course not all mid-majors would make that move. The top ones would stick around because a Sweet 16 run would be worth more than an FCS National Title.

There’s no way Gonzaga should be considered mid-major either, regardless of the mid-major poll status or conference affiliation. Their basketball budget is one of the 50 largest in D-I, and only continues to get bigger.

(01-29-2019 03:45 PM)solohawks Wrote:  Hofstra wont get in without auto bid.

I am not disagreeing, but the numbers are semi favorable since they are blowing out most. If they keep that up, I think they would be on the radar. I agree the motives to put a team from a mid major is low, even lower when your SOS is lousy with you losing to the only decent teams you played.

(01-30-2019 07:35 AM)dan10 Wrote:  

(01-29-2019 03:45 PM)solohawks Wrote:  Hofstra wont get in without auto bid.

I am not disagreeing, but the numbers are semi favorable since they are blowing out most. If they keep that up, I think they would be on the radar. I agree the motives to put a team from a mid major is low, even lower when your SOS is lousy with you losing to the only decent teams you played.

Their margin for error is razor thin, that's for sure. And in this league, we know teams just aren't going to go 18-0 in league play and lose in the CAA title game. We don't get lucky like that.

(01-30-2019 07:35 AM)dan10 Wrote:  

(01-29-2019 03:45 PM)solohawks Wrote:  Hofstra wont get in without auto bid.

I am not disagreeing, but the numbers are semi favorable since they are blowing out most. If they keep that up, I think they would be on the radar. I agree the motives to put a team from a mid major is low, even lower when your SOS is lousy with you losing to the only decent teams you played.

It would certainly help if they could get ranked. They just gotta keep winning.

I would agree that if Hofstra keeps winning and for some reason doesn't win the tournament championship they should be included in the NCAA tournament.

That being said, I don't see it happening in today's NCAA environment. I would expect that the committee would pick a 7th or 8th team from a P5 conference, particularly if it is a large school with a big following based upon economic assumptions that the larger school will benefit the NCAA more financially. They will couch that based upon SoS or something else, but I believe that it is really driven by $, ie they will expect say Oregon, OH State, Texas, Florida or Florida State will draw better in person and on the air than Hofstra, leading to increased economic benefit.

This will also have the impact of keeping tournament money concentrated in the P5, etc. and perpetuating what the NCAA would consider their top tier programs.

Absolutely agree with all. Razor thin margin. At most they could lose 1 game (NU or CofC on the road) during the season and if they lose the title game it would also have to be against either NU or CofC, I have to believe any other circumstance they are out. Even then that may not be enough but their numbers would be good enough to be in consideration. The best thing for Hofstra, beyond just keep winning and winning big, is for Marshall to keep winning and lessen that loss (who has lost 3 in a row after opening CUSA play 5-0)

The fact there is even a remote chance for a CAA team that isnt CofC or NU was unthinkable before the season started. I do like the general direction the conference is headed. The teams that rebooted a few years ago seem to be getting up to snuff with promising players. A highly competitive league is what we all wanted to get back to after the defections. The next step for everyone beyond NU and CofC is to start building more challenging OOC schedules to reflect the direction of each's program. I personally am excited to see where this conference goes from here, because it certainly appears to be rising again where there will be multiple solid teams every year

Doesn’t help that the CAA is only the #22 conference this year in KenPom. It is below the Atlantic Sun and barely above the Big South...