(01-15-2019 11:01 AM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  

(01-15-2019 07:26 AM)GoAppsGo92 Wrote:  ...how many of these programs had senior heavy teams in the coach’s final season?

That would likely make it worse. They've been under Satterfield / Brown for three seasons (or more in some cases). Some of them really don't want to get used to a new staff and a new system in their final season. They're used to the way things have been.

No, no, no. That wouldn't possible play a role. Neither could the fact that traditionally, a 10-win team will regress to single digit wins the following season, new or old coach. If you can find the differential of wins responsible for based on the expected win total the season following a coaching departure and the actual win total, you will have your answer.

The motivation of the ball busting by Southern fans is their innate desire to make App go through what they endured for two seasons. They want us to feel that pain because they still haven't let go of it. I feel many of them coped with their losses by following their beloved Dawgs and Kirby Smart.

Funny... the guy with the dual fandom accusing others of dual fandom.


Anyway.. what this is really points to what we all know.. coaching matters. Not only good coaching, but continuity/stability in coaching. What we are seeing played out is just the nature of things, all good coaching staffs must come to an end in the G5 at some point. Turns outs its difficult to continue success between coaching staffs, so no, this is not just an App topic. This is a topic Southern dealt with in 2013 & 2015, Troy and App in 2019, and to some degree Ark State 2019 given how they just lost 7 assistants.

If Chad stay's successful, we will be subject to the exact same thing.

(01-14-2019 03:15 PM)ah59396 Wrote:  

(01-14-2019 03:07 PM)Georgia_Power_Company Wrote:  

(01-14-2019 02:54 PM)ah59396 Wrote:  

(01-14-2019 02:35 PM)EigenEagle Wrote:  

(01-14-2019 02:17 PM)ah59396 Wrote:  Only looking at the year immediately following the change is not a very accurate representation of what you’re trying to show. G5 coaches get poached because in general, they are coming off very exceptional seasons. When you’re at or near your top, you can’t improve, you can only zero out or get worse, season vs. season.

I think it’d be interesting to see leaving coach total win/loss % vs. new coach total win/loss %. Or at least show a span of 3-4 years.

I like your idea, just needs to be tweaked a bit.

So what you're saying is you just need to get the dice roll of the dice and have everything come together for a season and then you get another job? I can promise you it doesn't work like that.

Which of the successors in the list could you say with confidence are upgrades over their predecessors? Josh Heupel and Charlie Strong are TBDs. All of the rest, no.

No. I’m not saying that.

I’m saying that, by and large, if a G5 coach is hired, they are probably coming off a really great season. I don’t know if many occasions where a G5 coach has a losing year and then gets snagged up. It doesn’t mean that haven’t had prior great seasons.

You’re using two seasons to promote that a new coach isn’t as good as a previous one (which may be true), I just think the matter in which your attempting to show it isn’t very accurate.

I've always felt like a new coach needs three years to get a majority "his guys" on the 2-deep. That's when I think you find out how good of a coach you have. It kinda amazes me how many coaches can win with someone else players but not there own.

Totally agree.

WKU listed twice is very telling and shows why this chart doesn't show everything. They went 8-4 under Petrino, best season since 2004. The next year they hire Brohm who goes 8-5 ... just looking at the record, a slight drop off.

However, in 16, Brohm finishes the season with his 2nd consecutive 10 win season and back-back seasons. So just showing the year after a coaching change doesn't tell the whole story and doesn't prove an overall drop off.

Let's look at what is most likely to occur here...these list of teams are of a wide array of success levels as programs. UCF maintained its success due to unreal level of talent on their roster that no G5 (and maybe 15 p5) have..but from a historical standpoint there are 2 teams on this list that are some of the winningest programs in college football (Boise State, and Georgia Southern). The other teams do not sustain success year on year anyway, so of course a new coach and system will hurt results for programs that already fail to continually win. Boise was able to succeed despite a new coach. Georgia Southern cannot be compared to anyone because they run the option. The reality is, that is an unusual system and has many variations within it...not to mention Tyson summers lied on his resume claiming he knew how to run it.

The poster of this thread was obviously a southern fan, they are the only people screaming that App will not succeed because they didn't during a coaching change. But again, their system is so very hard to maintain...you could talk for hours about how many issues could arise in transitioning personnel in an option offense.

App State went 4-8 and 7-5 in their FCS to FBS transitional seasons when they redshirted massive swaths of players and no postseason was in play. But let's look at their last 12 'full seasons.'

2005: 12-3 (FCS National Champion, Southern Champion)
2006: 14-1 (FCS National Champion, Southern Champion)
2007: 13-2 (FCS National Champion, Southern Champion)
2008: 11-3 (Southern Champion)
2009: 11-3 (Southern Champion)
2010: 10-3 (Southern Champion)
2011: 8-4
2012: 8-4 (Southern Champion)
2015: 11-2 (Camellia Bowl Champion)
2016: 10-3 (Sun Belt Champion, Camellia Bowl Champion)
2017: 9-4 (Sun Belt Champion, Dollar General Champion)
2018: 11-2 (Sun Belt Champion, New Orleans Champion)


These seasons saw a change from mobile quarterbacks to traditional, spread offense to run oriented. If you were to look at this record, with the knowledge App State is returning 17 starters...would an unbiased person really say that App likely won't win double digit games and contend for the Sun Belt? Expecting a 7-6 or 8-5 App State season is possible...but is it at all likely?

(01-15-2019 01:59 PM)Neers12 Wrote:  2005: 12-3 (FCS National Champion, Southern Champion)
2006: 14-1 (FCS National Champion, Southern Champion)
2007: 13-2 (FCS National Champion, Southern Champion)
2008: 11-3 (Southern Champion)
2009: 11-3 (Southern Champion)
2010: 10-3 (Southern Champion)
2011: 8-4
2012: 8-4 (Southern Champion)
2015: 11-2 (Camellia Bowl Champion)
2016: 10-3 (Sun Belt Champion, Camellia Bowl Champion)
2017: 9-4 (Sun Belt Champion, Dollar General Champion)
2018: 11-2 (Sun Belt Champion, New Orleans Champion)

These seasons saw a change from mobile quarterbacks to traditional, spread offense to run oriented. If you were to look at this record, with the knowledge App State is returning 17 starters...would an unbiased person really say that App likely won't win double digit games and contend for the Sun Belt? Expecting a 7-6 or 8-5 App State season is possible...but is it at all likely?

Good god, do you guys ever not win conference championships??? Geez. Mad respect.

(01-15-2019 02:26 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  

(01-15-2019 01:59 PM)Neers12 Wrote:  2005: 12-3 (FCS National Champion, Southern Champion)
2006: 14-1 (FCS National Champion, Southern Champion)
2007: 13-2 (FCS National Champion, Southern Champion)
2008: 11-3 (Southern Champion)
2009: 11-3 (Southern Champion)
2010: 10-3 (Southern Champion)
2011: 8-4
2012: 8-4 (Southern Champion)
2015: 11-2 (Camellia Bowl Champion)
2016: 10-3 (Sun Belt Champion, Camellia Bowl Champion)
2017: 9-4 (Sun Belt Champion, Dollar General Champion)
2018: 11-2 (Sun Belt Champion, New Orleans Champion)

These seasons saw a change from mobile quarterbacks to traditional, spread offense to run oriented. If you were to look at this record, with the knowledge App State is returning 17 starters...would an unbiased person really say that App likely won't win double digit games and contend for the Sun Belt? Expecting a 7-6 or 8-5 App State season is possible...but is it at all likely?

Good god, do you guys ever not win conference championships??? Geez. Mad respect.

Looking at this, who would expect an 8 win App team to be a 4 win team the next year?

The 4-8 season was conveniently left off because it doesn't fit the narrative. It's blamed on "redshirting" and "not having anything to play for."

The problem is, it's a case study of what has potential to happen in a transition. Cracks were showing as early as 2009. Satterfield leaving the staff (who ran the offense) caused some of the old bad habits under Moore (and poor OL recruitment) to grow under the surface. All of that came to roost in 2013 when Satt had to fundamentally fix the team. Say what you want, the talent on the field in 2013 should have done a lot better in the Win column, regardless of who was redshirted.

For people who complain about the analysis method in the OP, it's funny that this one leaves out the 2 worst years in the span covered by this summary.

There was more at play than redshirting players for the sake of the future....they were redshirted to fundamentally fix the team and the culture. The results of what Satt built in 2013/2014 are shown by the results in 15-18. You're kidding yourself if you think otherwise.

So in a roundabout way, thanks to Neers12 for showing what can happen due to a coaching transition. App is lucky theirs went extremely positive previously, as it's not a guarantee.

(01-15-2019 12:19 PM)TheEagleWay Wrote:  Funny... the guy with the dual fandom accusing others of dual fandom.


Anyway.. what this is really points to what we all know.. coaching matters. Not only good coaching, but continuity/stability in coaching. What we are seeing played out is just the nature of things, all good coaching staffs must come to an end in the G5 at some point. Turns outs its difficult to continue success between coaching staffs, so no, this is not just an App topic. This is a topic Southern dealt with in 2013 & 2015, Troy and App in 2019, and to some degree Ark State 2019 given how they just lost 7 assistants.

If Chad stay's successful, we will be subject to the exact same thing.

I have ECU listed for full disclosure. I am not a fan, per say. However, I don't follow a G5 and then a P5 state school. I went to ECU as an Appalachian fan which is far from a flagship university. The implication is quite different.

(01-15-2019 02:48 PM)eaglewraith Wrote:  

(01-15-2019 02:26 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  

(01-15-2019 01:59 PM)Neers12 Wrote:  2005: 12-3 (FCS National Champion, Southern Champion)
2006: 14-1 (FCS National Champion, Southern Champion)
2007: 13-2 (FCS National Champion, Southern Champion)
2008: 11-3 (Southern Champion)
2009: 11-3 (Southern Champion)
2010: 10-3 (Southern Champion)
2011: 8-4
2012: 8-4 (Southern Champion)
2015: 11-2 (Camellia Bowl Champion)
2016: 10-3 (Sun Belt Champion, Camellia Bowl Champion)
2017: 9-4 (Sun Belt Champion, Dollar General Champion)
2018: 11-2 (Sun Belt Champion, New Orleans Champion)

These seasons saw a change from mobile quarterbacks to traditional, spread offense to run oriented. If you were to look at this record, with the knowledge App State is returning 17 starters...would an unbiased person really say that App likely won't win double digit games and contend for the Sun Belt? Expecting a 7-6 or 8-5 App State season is possible...but is it at all likely?

Good god, do you guys ever not win conference championships??? Geez. Mad respect.

Looking at this, who would expect an 8 win App team to be a 4 win team the next year?

The 4-8 season was conveniently left off because it doesn't fit the narrative. It's blamed on "redshirting" and "not having anything to play for."

lmao I didn't see there were years left off. Still impressive, not as much so with the missing seasons though.

(01-15-2019 02:48 PM)eaglewraith Wrote:  

(01-15-2019 02:26 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  

(01-15-2019 01:59 PM)Neers12 Wrote:  2005: 12-3 (FCS National Champion, Southern Champion)
2006: 14-1 (FCS National Champion, Southern Champion)
2007: 13-2 (FCS National Champion, Southern Champion)
2008: 11-3 (Southern Champion)
2009: 11-3 (Southern Champion)
2010: 10-3 (Southern Champion)
2011: 8-4
2012: 8-4 (Southern Champion)
2015: 11-2 (Camellia Bowl Champion)
2016: 10-3 (Sun Belt Champion, Camellia Bowl Champion)
2017: 9-4 (Sun Belt Champion, Dollar General Champion)
2018: 11-2 (Sun Belt Champion, New Orleans Champion)

These seasons saw a change from mobile quarterbacks to traditional, spread offense to run oriented. If you were to look at this record, with the knowledge App State is returning 17 starters...would an unbiased person really say that App likely won't win double digit games and contend for the Sun Belt? Expecting a 7-6 or 8-5 App State season is possible...but is it at all likely?

Good god, do you guys ever not win conference championships??? Geez. Mad respect.

Looking at this, who would expect an 8 win App team to be a 4 win team the next year?

The 4-8 season was conveniently left off because it doesn't fit the narrative. It's blamed on "redshirting" and "not having anything to play for."

The problem is, it's a case study of what has potential to happen in a transition. Cracks were showing as early as 2009. Satterfield leaving the staff (who ran the offense) caused some of the old bad habits under Moore (and poor OL recruitment) to grow under the surface. All of that came to roost in 2013 when Satt had to fundamentally fix the team. Say what you want, the talent on the field in 2013 should have done a lot better in the Win column, regardless of who was redshirted.

For people who complain about the analysis method in the OP, it's funny that this one leaves out the 2 worst years in the span covered by this summary.

There was more at play than redshirting players for the sake of the future....they were redshirted to fundamentally fix the team and the culture. The results of what Satt built in 2013/2014 are shown by the results in 15-18. You're kidding yourself if you think otherwise.

So in a roundabout way, thanks to Neers12 for showing what can happen due to a coaching transition. App is lucky theirs went extremely positive previously, as it's not a guarantee.

2005: 12-3 (FCS National Champion, Southern Champion)
2006: 14-1 (FCS National Champion, Southern Champion)
2007: 13-2 (FCS National Champion, Southern Champion)
2008: 11-3 (Southern Champion)
2009: 11-3 (Southern Champion)
2010: 10-3 (Southern Champion)
2011: 8-4
2012: 8-4 (Southern Champion)
2013: 4-8 (Defeated Georgia Southern 34-17; Georgia Southern beat Florida; Further evidence the rest of the season was lost because there was nothing to play for)
2015: 11-2 (Camellia Bowl Champion)
2016: 10-3 (Sun Belt Champion, Camellia Bowl Champion)
2017: 9-4 (Sun Belt Champion, Dollar General Champion)
2018: 11-2 (Sun Belt Champion, New Orleans Champion)

(01-15-2019 03:00 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  

(01-15-2019 02:48 PM)eaglewraith Wrote:  

(01-15-2019 02:26 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  

(01-15-2019 01:59 PM)Neers12 Wrote:  2005: 12-3 (FCS National Champion, Southern Champion)
2006: 14-1 (FCS National Champion, Southern Champion)
2007: 13-2 (FCS National Champion, Southern Champion)
2008: 11-3 (Southern Champion)
2009: 11-3 (Southern Champion)
2010: 10-3 (Southern Champion)
2011: 8-4
2012: 8-4 (Southern Champion)
2015: 11-2 (Camellia Bowl Champion)
2016: 10-3 (Sun Belt Champion, Camellia Bowl Champion)
2017: 9-4 (Sun Belt Champion, Dollar General Champion)
2018: 11-2 (Sun Belt Champion, New Orleans Champion)

These seasons saw a change from mobile quarterbacks to traditional, spread offense to run oriented. If you were to look at this record, with the knowledge App State is returning 17 starters...would an unbiased person really say that App likely won't win double digit games and contend for the Sun Belt? Expecting a 7-6 or 8-5 App State season is possible...but is it at all likely?

Good god, do you guys ever not win conference championships??? Geez. Mad respect.

Looking at this, who would expect an 8 win App team to be a 4 win team the next year?

The 4-8 season was conveniently left off because it doesn't fit the narrative. It's blamed on "redshirting" and "not having anything to play for."

The problem is, it's a case study of what has potential to happen in a transition. Cracks were showing as early as 2009. Satterfield leaving the staff (who ran the offense) caused some of the old bad habits under Moore (and poor OL recruitment) to grow under the surface. All of that came to roost in 2013 when Satt had to fundamentally fix the team. Say what you want, the talent on the field in 2013 should have done a lot better in the Win column, regardless of who was redshirted.

For people who complain about the analysis method in the OP, it's funny that this one leaves out the 2 worst years in the span covered by this summary.

There was more at play than redshirting players for the sake of the future....they were redshirted to fundamentally fix the team and the culture. The results of what Satt built in 2013/2014 are shown by the results in 15-18. You're kidding yourself if you think otherwise.

So in a roundabout way, thanks to Neers12 for showing what can happen due to a coaching transition. App is lucky theirs went extremely positive previously, as it's not a guarantee.

2005: 12-3 (FCS National Champion, Southern Champion)
2006: 14-1 (FCS National Champion, Southern Champion)
2007: 13-2 (FCS National Champion, Southern Champion)
2008: 11-3 (Southern Champion)
2009: 11-3 (Southern Champion)
2010: 10-3 (Southern Champion)
2011: 8-4
2012: 8-4 (Southern Champion)
2013: 4-8 (Defeated Georgia Southern 34-17; Georgia Southern beat Florida; Further evidence the rest of the season was lost because there was nothing to play for)
2015: 11-2 (Camellia Bowl Champion)
2016: 10-3 (Sun Belt Champion, Camellia Bowl Champion)
2017: 9-4 (Sun Belt Champion, Dollar General Champion)
2018: 11-2 (Sun Belt Champion, New Orleans Champion)

Lol.

And we're the obsessed ones.

(01-15-2019 03:05 PM)eaglewraith Wrote:  

(01-15-2019 03:00 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  

(01-15-2019 02:48 PM)eaglewraith Wrote:  

(01-15-2019 02:26 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  

(01-15-2019 01:59 PM)Neers12 Wrote:  2005: 12-3 (FCS National Champion, Southern Champion)
2006: 14-1 (FCS National Champion, Southern Champion)
2007: 13-2 (FCS National Champion, Southern Champion)
2008: 11-3 (Southern Champion)
2009: 11-3 (Southern Champion)
2010: 10-3 (Southern Champion)
2011: 8-4
2012: 8-4 (Southern Champion)
2015: 11-2 (Camellia Bowl Champion)
2016: 10-3 (Sun Belt Champion, Camellia Bowl Champion)
2017: 9-4 (Sun Belt Champion, Dollar General Champion)
2018: 11-2 (Sun Belt Champion, New Orleans Champion)

These seasons saw a change from mobile quarterbacks to traditional, spread offense to run oriented. If you were to look at this record, with the knowledge App State is returning 17 starters...would an unbiased person really say that App likely won't win double digit games and contend for the Sun Belt? Expecting a 7-6 or 8-5 App State season is possible...but is it at all likely?

Good god, do you guys ever not win conference championships??? Geez. Mad respect.

Looking at this, who would expect an 8 win App team to be a 4 win team the next year?

The 4-8 season was conveniently left off because it doesn't fit the narrative. It's blamed on "redshirting" and "not having anything to play for."

The problem is, it's a case study of what has potential to happen in a transition. Cracks were showing as early as 2009. Satterfield leaving the staff (who ran the offense) caused some of the old bad habits under Moore (and poor OL recruitment) to grow under the surface. All of that came to roost in 2013 when Satt had to fundamentally fix the team. Say what you want, the talent on the field in 2013 should have done a lot better in the Win column, regardless of who was redshirted.

For people who complain about the analysis method in the OP, it's funny that this one leaves out the 2 worst years in the span covered by this summary.

There was more at play than redshirting players for the sake of the future....they were redshirted to fundamentally fix the team and the culture. The results of what Satt built in 2013/2014 are shown by the results in 15-18. You're kidding yourself if you think otherwise.

So in a roundabout way, thanks to Neers12 for showing what can happen due to a coaching transition. App is lucky theirs went extremely positive previously, as it's not a guarantee.

2005: 12-3 (FCS National Champion, Southern Champion)
2006: 14-1 (FCS National Champion, Southern Champion)
2007: 13-2 (FCS National Champion, Southern Champion)
2008: 11-3 (Southern Champion)
2009: 11-3 (Southern Champion)
2010: 10-3 (Southern Champion)
2011: 8-4
2012: 8-4 (Southern Champion)
2013: 4-8 (Defeated Georgia Southern 34-17; Georgia Southern beat Florida; Further evidence the rest of the season was lost because there was nothing to play for)
2015: 11-2 (Camellia Bowl Champion)
2016: 10-3 (Sun Belt Champion, Camellia Bowl Champion)
2017: 9-4 (Sun Belt Champion, Dollar General Champion)
2018: 11-2 (Sun Belt Champion, New Orleans Champion)

Lol.

And we're the obsessed ones.

You're the one who made a point to call out that season. I figured it would be one you'd leave alone.

(01-15-2019 03:17 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  

(01-15-2019 03:05 PM)eaglewraith Wrote:  

(01-15-2019 03:00 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  

(01-15-2019 02:48 PM)eaglewraith Wrote:  

(01-15-2019 02:26 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  Good god, do you guys ever not win conference championships??? Geez. Mad respect.

Looking at this, who would expect an 8 win App team to be a 4 win team the next year?

The 4-8 season was conveniently left off because it doesn't fit the narrative. It's blamed on "redshirting" and "not having anything to play for."

The problem is, it's a case study of what has potential to happen in a transition. Cracks were showing as early as 2009. Satterfield leaving the staff (who ran the offense) caused some of the old bad habits under Moore (and poor OL recruitment) to grow under the surface. All of that came to roost in 2013 when Satt had to fundamentally fix the team. Say what you want, the talent on the field in 2013 should have done a lot better in the Win column, regardless of who was redshirted.

For people who complain about the analysis method in the OP, it's funny that this one leaves out the 2 worst years in the span covered by this summary.

There was more at play than redshirting players for the sake of the future....they were redshirted to fundamentally fix the team and the culture. The results of what Satt built in 2013/2014 are shown by the results in 15-18. You're kidding yourself if you think otherwise.

So in a roundabout way, thanks to Neers12 for showing what can happen due to a coaching transition. App is lucky theirs went extremely positive previously, as it's not a guarantee.

2005: 12-3 (FCS National Champion, Southern Champion)
2006: 14-1 (FCS National Champion, Southern Champion)
2007: 13-2 (FCS National Champion, Southern Champion)
2008: 11-3 (Southern Champion)
2009: 11-3 (Southern Champion)
2010: 10-3 (Southern Champion)
2011: 8-4
2012: 8-4 (Southern Champion)
2013: 4-8 (Defeated Georgia Southern 34-17; Georgia Southern beat Florida; Further evidence the rest of the season was lost because there was nothing to play for)
2015: 11-2 (Camellia Bowl Champion)
2016: 10-3 (Sun Belt Champion, Camellia Bowl Champion)
2017: 9-4 (Sun Belt Champion, Dollar General Champion)
2018: 11-2 (Sun Belt Champion, New Orleans Champion)

Lol.

And we're the obsessed ones.

You're the one who made a point to call out that season. I figured it would be one you'd leave alone.

Ya'll were the ones making a big deal about head to head in 11/12/13 when we were having better seasons each of those years.

(01-15-2019 03:00 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  

(01-15-2019 02:48 PM)eaglewraith Wrote:  

(01-15-2019 02:26 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  

(01-15-2019 01:59 PM)Neers12 Wrote:  2005: 12-3 (FCS National Champion, Southern Champion)
2006: 14-1 (FCS National Champion, Southern Champion)
2007: 13-2 (FCS National Champion, Southern Champion)
2008: 11-3 (Southern Champion)
2009: 11-3 (Southern Champion)
2010: 10-3 (Southern Champion)
2011: 8-4
2012: 8-4 (Southern Champion)
2015: 11-2 (Camellia Bowl Champion)
2016: 10-3 (Sun Belt Champion, Camellia Bowl Champion)
2017: 9-4 (Sun Belt Champion, Dollar General Champion)
2018: 11-2 (Sun Belt Champion, New Orleans Champion)

These seasons saw a change from mobile quarterbacks to traditional, spread offense to run oriented. If you were to look at this record, with the knowledge App State is returning 17 starters...would an unbiased person really say that App likely won't win double digit games and contend for the Sun Belt? Expecting a 7-6 or 8-5 App State season is possible...but is it at all likely?

Good god, do you guys ever not win conference championships??? Geez. Mad respect.

Looking at this, who would expect an 8 win App team to be a 4 win team the next year?

The 4-8 season was conveniently left off because it doesn't fit the narrative. It's blamed on "redshirting" and "not having anything to play for."

The problem is, it's a case study of what has potential to happen in a transition. Cracks were showing as early as 2009. Satterfield leaving the staff (who ran the offense) caused some of the old bad habits under Moore (and poor OL recruitment) to grow under the surface. All of that came to roost in 2013 when Satt had to fundamentally fix the team. Say what you want, the talent on the field in 2013 should have done a lot better in the Win column, regardless of who was redshirted.

For people who complain about the analysis method in the OP, it's funny that this one leaves out the 2 worst years in the span covered by this summary.

There was more at play than redshirting players for the sake of the future....they were redshirted to fundamentally fix the team and the culture. The results of what Satt built in 2013/2014 are shown by the results in 15-18. You're kidding yourself if you think otherwise.

So in a roundabout way, thanks to Neers12 for showing what can happen due to a coaching transition. App is lucky theirs went extremely positive previously, as it's not a guarantee.

2005: 12-3 (FCS National Champion, Southern Champion)
2006: 14-1 (FCS National Champion, Southern Champion)
2007: 13-2 (FCS National Champion, Southern Champion)
2008: 11-3 (Southern Champion)
2009: 11-3 (Southern Champion)
2010: 10-3 (Southern Champion)
2011: 8-4
2012: 8-4 (Southern Champion)
2013: 4-8 (Defeated Georgia Southern 34-17; Georgia Southern beat Florida; Further evidence the rest of the season was lost because there was nothing to play for)
2015: 11-2 (Camellia Bowl Champion)
2016: 10-3 (Sun Belt Champion, Camellia Bowl Champion)
2017: 9-4 (Sun Belt Champion, Dollar General Champion)
2018: 11-2 (Sun Belt Champion, New Orleans Champion)

Still left off 2014 (7-5), but hey, the fact that your team went from 8-4, 8-4 to 4-8, 7-5 during your coaching transition is probably irrelevant to a conversation about dropoffs during coaching transitions.

(01-15-2019 02:54 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  

(01-15-2019 02:48 PM)eaglewraith Wrote:  

(01-15-2019 02:26 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  

(01-15-2019 01:59 PM)Neers12 Wrote:  2005: 12-3 (FCS National Champion, Southern Champion)
2006: 14-1 (FCS National Champion, Southern Champion)
2007: 13-2 (FCS National Champion, Southern Champion)
2008: 11-3 (Southern Champion)
2009: 11-3 (Southern Champion)
2010: 10-3 (Southern Champion)
2011: 8-4
2012: 8-4 (Southern Champion)
2015: 11-2 (Camellia Bowl Champion)
2016: 10-3 (Sun Belt Champion, Camellia Bowl Champion)
2017: 9-4 (Sun Belt Champion, Dollar General Champion)
2018: 11-2 (Sun Belt Champion, New Orleans Champion)

These seasons saw a change from mobile quarterbacks to traditional, spread offense to run oriented. If you were to look at this record, with the knowledge App State is returning 17 starters...would an unbiased person really say that App likely won't win double digit games and contend for the Sun Belt? Expecting a 7-6 or 8-5 App State season is possible...but is it at all likely?

Good god, do you guys ever not win conference championships??? Geez. Mad respect.

Looking at this, who would expect an 8 win App team to be a 4 win team the next year?

The 4-8 season was conveniently left off because it doesn't fit the narrative. It's blamed on "redshirting" and "not having anything to play for."

lmao I didn't see there were years left off. Still impressive, not as much so with the missing seasons though.

I clarified that 2013 and 2014 were missing as they were fcs to fbs transitional years where app redshirted an incredible amount of players to prep for the increase to 85 scholarships. I listed the previous 12 full seasons

(01-15-2019 07:29 PM)Klak Wrote:  

(01-15-2019 03:00 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  

(01-15-2019 02:48 PM)eaglewraith Wrote:  

(01-15-2019 02:26 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  

(01-15-2019 01:59 PM)Neers12 Wrote:  2005: 12-3 (FCS National Champion, Southern Champion)
2006: 14-1 (FCS National Champion, Southern Champion)
2007: 13-2 (FCS National Champion, Southern Champion)
2008: 11-3 (Southern Champion)
2009: 11-3 (Southern Champion)
2010: 10-3 (Southern Champion)
2011: 8-4
2012: 8-4 (Southern Champion)
2015: 11-2 (Camellia Bowl Champion)
2016: 10-3 (Sun Belt Champion, Camellia Bowl Champion)
2017: 9-4 (Sun Belt Champion, Dollar General Champion)
2018: 11-2 (Sun Belt Champion, New Orleans Champion)

These seasons saw a change from mobile quarterbacks to traditional, spread offense to run oriented. If you were to look at this record, with the knowledge App State is returning 17 starters...would an unbiased person really say that App likely won't win double digit games and contend for the Sun Belt? Expecting a 7-6 or 8-5 App State season is possible...but is it at all likely?

Good god, do you guys ever not win conference championships??? Geez. Mad respect.

Looking at this, who would expect an 8 win App team to be a 4 win team the next year?

The 4-8 season was conveniently left off because it doesn't fit the narrative. It's blamed on "redshirting" and "not having anything to play for."

The problem is, it's a case study of what has potential to happen in a transition. Cracks were showing as early as 2009. Satterfield leaving the staff (who ran the offense) caused some of the old bad habits under Moore (and poor OL recruitment) to grow under the surface. All of that came to roost in 2013 when Satt had to fundamentally fix the team. Say what you want, the talent on the field in 2013 should have done a lot better in the Win column, regardless of who was redshirted.

For people who complain about the analysis method in the OP, it's funny that this one leaves out the 2 worst years in the span covered by this summary.

There was more at play than redshirting players for the sake of the future....they were redshirted to fundamentally fix the team and the culture. The results of what Satt built in 2013/2014 are shown by the results in 15-18. You're kidding yourself if you think otherwise.

So in a roundabout way, thanks to Neers12 for showing what can happen due to a coaching transition. App is lucky theirs went extremely positive previously, as it's not a guarantee.

2005: 12-3 (FCS National Champion, Southern Champion)
2006: 14-1 (FCS National Champion, Southern Champion)
2007: 13-2 (FCS National Champion, Southern Champion)
2008: 11-3 (Southern Champion)
2009: 11-3 (Southern Champion)
2010: 10-3 (Southern Champion)
2011: 8-4
2012: 8-4 (Southern Champion)
2013: 4-8 (Defeated Georgia Southern 34-17; Georgia Southern beat Florida; Further evidence the rest of the season was lost because there was nothing to play for)
2015: 11-2 (Camellia Bowl Champion)
2016: 10-3 (Sun Belt Champion, Camellia Bowl Champion)
2017: 9-4 (Sun Belt Champion, Dollar General Champion)
2018: 11-2 (Sun Belt Champion, New Orleans Champion)

Still left off 2014 (7-5), but hey, the fact that your team went from 8-4, 8-4 to 4-8, 7-5 during your coaching transition is probably irrelevant to a conversation about dropoffs during coaching transitions.

It had less to do with coaching transition and more to do with the philosophy during the change of classification, similar to starting up a new program. Everything in 13-14 was prepping for 15 and beyond.