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FOX No Longer Airing BXII Championship Game
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CliftonAve Online
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FOX No Longer Airing BXII Championship Game
https://mattsarzsports.blogspot.com/2019...ights.html

FOX claims they weren't getting their ROI.
01-14-2019 10:19 AM
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RE: FOX No Longer Airing BXII Championship Game
(01-14-2019 10:19 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  https://mattsarzsports.blogspot.com/2019...ights.html

FOX claims they weren't getting their ROI.

That's big news. Gives us some insights into the economics of these big CCG games.
01-14-2019 10:29 AM
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RE: FOX No Longer Airing BXII Championship Game
(01-14-2019 10:19 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  https://mattsarzsports.blogspot.com/2019...ights.html

FOX claims they weren't getting their ROI.

Be interesting to see if The Mouse picks up the XII CCG.

If they do, one has to wonder if there will be any "trickle down" to realignment talks.
01-14-2019 10:33 AM
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CliftonAve Online
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RE: FOX No Longer Airing BXII Championship Game
Matt offers several interesting nuggets in his article. It will be interesting to see if the PAC12 championship game suffers a similar fate, as he mentions it will have to be moved over to Saturday to accommodate for WWE Smackdown this year.
01-14-2019 10:36 AM
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RE: FOX No Longer Airing BXII Championship Game
Interesting. Why wouldn't ESPN lowball the offer (under $20 million)? It is difficult to imagine any other network (CBS/NBC) paying that amount for a one-off, since no other network carries Big 12 content.

It's also interesting that Fox is content staying with the college basketball package in its place. They appear to be quite pleased with what they have in the B1G/BE/PAC.
01-14-2019 10:37 AM
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RE: FOX No Longer Airing BXII Championship Game
Interesting that they have that option. Thought the contracts were through 2023.

The issue is that there are 3 good time slots (Friday night is not great) and 5 P5 ccgs.

This also plays into what happens with playoff expansion.
(This post was last modified: 01-14-2019 11:34 AM by bullet.)
01-14-2019 11:33 AM
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RE: FOX No Longer Airing BXII Championship Game
The Big 12 championship game was the 4th highest rate game of the season and drew more than the bowls except for the 3 playoff games, the Rose and the Sugar.

Interestingly, the 3 early New Year's Day games combined (one each on ABC, ESPN, ESPN2) had more viewers than the CFP title game.

http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-...v-ratings/

# GAME CONF DATE/TIME NET RTG VWRS
1 ALA-UGA SEC Champ. 12/1, 4:00p CBS 10.1 17.50M
2 MICH-OSU B1G 11/24, Noon FOX 7.5 13.20M
3 ALA-LSU SEC 11/3, 8:00p CBS 6.6 11.54M
4 OKLA-TEX B12 Champ. 12/1, Noon ABC 6.2 10.16M
5 OSU-PSU B1G 9/29, 7:30p ABC 5.3 9.14M
6 AUB-ALA SEC 11/24, 3:30p CBS 5.1 9.13M
T7 OSU-NWSTN B1G Champ. 12/1, 8:00p FOX 5.0 8.66M
Army-Navy IND, AAC 12/8, 3:00p CBS 5.0 8.05M
9 ND-USC IND, P12 11/24, 8:00p ABC 4.4 7.74M
10 OSU-TCU B1G, B12 9/15, 8:00p ABC 4.2 7.23M
01-14-2019 11:45 AM
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RE: FOX No Longer Airing BXII Championship Game
The Rose drew 16.8 million and Sugar 13.3 million. Both pay $80 million.
The Big 12 ccg drew 10.2 million and paid $20 million which Fox no longer wants to pay.
01-14-2019 11:47 AM
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RE: FOX No Longer Airing BXII Championship Game
The Big 12 desperately needs a Texas/Oklahoma championship game each year just to keep interest up.
01-14-2019 12:00 PM
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RE: FOX No Longer Airing BXII Championship Game
(01-14-2019 11:45 AM)bullet Wrote:  The Big 12 championship game was the 4th highest rate game of the season and drew more than the bowls except for the 3 playoff games, the Rose and the Sugar.

Interestingly, the 3 early New Year's Day games combined (one each on ABC, ESPN, ESPN2) had more viewers than the CFP title game.

http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-...v-ratings/

# GAME CONF DATE/TIME NET RTG VWRS
1 ALA-UGA SEC Champ. 12/1, 4:00p CBS 10.1 17.50M
2 MICH-OSU B1G 11/24, Noon FOX 7.5 13.20M
3 ALA-LSU SEC 11/3, 8:00p CBS 6.6 11.54M
4 OKLA-TEX B12 Champ. 12/1, Noon ABC 6.2 10.16M
5 OSU-PSU B1G 9/29, 7:30p ABC 5.3 9.14M
6 AUB-ALA SEC 11/24, 3:30p CBS 5.1 9.13M
T7 OSU-NWSTN B1G Champ. 12/1, 8:00p FOX 5.0 8.66M
Army-Navy IND, AAC 12/8, 3:00p CBS 5.0 8.05M
9 ND-USC IND, P12 11/24, 8:00p ABC 4.4 7.74M
10 OSU-TCU B1G, B12 9/15, 8:00p ABC 4.2 7.23M

As pointed out in the article in the OP, the Big 12 sees this year's rating as the ceiling for the BXII CCG-- last year's game only garnered a 3.8 share. More often that not, the rating would be something in between.
01-14-2019 12:45 PM
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RE: FOX No Longer Airing BXII Championship Game
Pressure. There are essentially 4 championship game time slots on a Saturday. There is one too many games. The playoff committee issues go away with 4 conferences too. Product placement from the middle of the nation to the extremities also fits the corporate models in which lines are blurred between regions to enhance viewer penetration in multiple regions.

The Big 12 has the smallest existing footprint but a high saturation of viewers, brand power which escalates content value when distributed, and Texas, the key population state has already been penetrated by another region.

In the minds of the networks their question is how best to use those 28 million viewers in Texas? From their vantage point pieces of the Texas market in the PAC, Big 10, or ACC would all increase the national appeal of conference broadcasts. With regard to the SEC the only issue would be enhancing their penetration of the Texas/Oklahoma market.

Iowa, Kansas, West Virginia, and Oklahoma are markets so small that whether their schools were in any particular conference is not much of an issue.

I'm not saying definitively that this is a deliberate push to the Big 12. However I am saying that their parsing would solve a great many of the issues plaguing the current issues confronting the networks. Theoretically it could be used to give the Big 10 the recruiting access it needs, give the PAC a market that actually cares about watching football, multiply the content value of the SEC or enhance its weakest aspect (hoops), or to enhance the value of the ACCN.

If ESPN profits, Murdoch profits. If FOX profits, Murdoch profits.

I told this board in 2012 that this realignment was actually the hostile takeover of an undervalued and haphazardly managed and organized product, college football. And that when corporate raiders make a hostile takeover they organize the product to enhance its market value. That means culling poor product, placing top brands where they enhance others, and pushing strong regional product into national exposure.

The gap between the A product and the B product has already been established and the time slots apportioned on non traditional days and hours ensures that the gap is enhanced and remains.

We have two CCG's that pay, those of the SEC and Big 10. We have two CCG's that frequently lack a second worthy challenger, the PAC and ACC. We have one that can have great product but which across the course of the season yields too few games of national interest, but which if realigned could enhance any or all 4 of the others.

So that's the reason I look at this move and wonder if we aren't witnessing the ratcheting up of heat at precisely the right time for two networks to push their advantage in:

A. Enhancing the value of 4 conferences in which they own or lease the majority rights.

B. That by product placement they also may open up existing contracts, renegotiate them, and extend them.

C. That by extending them they avoid the interference of the FAANG companies when current contracts expire.

D. FOX and ESPN are in prime position to be able to mitigate damage claims since they split the T1 and T2 rights of the Big 12, ESPN owns Texas's T3, FOX owns Oklahoma's T3, and ESPN holds Kansas's T3 rights and the value of all the rest would be easily handled.

So there is motive and opportunity. The question remains whether or not there is the desire?
(This post was last modified: 01-14-2019 01:21 PM by JRsec.)
01-14-2019 01:16 PM
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RE: FOX No Longer Airing BXII Championship Game
(01-14-2019 01:16 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Pressure. There are essentially 4 championship game time slots on a Saturday. There is one too many games. The playoff committee issues go away with 4 conferences too. Product placement from the middle of the nation to the extremities also fits the corporate models in which lines are blurred between regions to enhance viewer penetration in multiple regions.

The Big 12 has the smallest existing footprint but a high saturation of viewers, brand power which escalates content value when distributed, and Texas, the key population state has already been penetrated by another region.

In the minds of the networks their question is how best to use those 28 million viewers in Texas? From their vantage point pieces of the Texas market in the PAC, Big 10, or ACC would all increase the national appeal of conference broadcasts. With regard to the SEC the only issue would be enhancing their penetration of the Texas/Oklahoma market.

Iowa, Kansas, West Virginia, and Oklahoma are markets so small that whether their schools were in any particular conference is not much of an issue.

I'm not saying definitively that this is a deliberate push to the Big 12. However I am saying that their parsing would solve a great many of the issues plaguing the current issues confronting the networks. Theoretically it could be used to give the Big 10 the recruiting access it needs, give the PAC a market that actually cares about watching football, multiply the content value of the SEC or enhance its weakest aspect (hoops), or to enhance the value of the ACCN.

If ESPN profits, Murdoch profits. If FOX profits, Murdoch profits.

I told this board in 2012 that this realignment was actually the hostile takeover of an undervalued and haphazardly managed and organized product, college football. And that when corporate raiders make a hostile takeover they organize the product to enhance its market value. That means culling poor product, placing top brands where they enhance others, and pushing strong regional product into national exposure.

The gap between the A product and the B product has already been established and the time slots apportioned on non traditional days and hours ensures that the gap is enhanced and remains.

We have two CCG's that pay, those of the SEC and Big 10. We have two CCG's that frequently lack a second worthy challenger, the PAC and ACC. We have one that can have great product but which across the course of the season yields too few games of national interest, but which if realigned could enhance any or all 4 of the others.

So that's the reason I look at this move and wonder if we aren't witnessing the ratcheting up of heat at precisely the right time for two networks to push their advantage in:

A. Enhancing the value of 4 conferences in which they own or lease the majority rights.

B. That by product placement they also may open up existing contracts, renegotiate them, and extend them.

C. That by extending them they avoid the interference of the FAANG companies when current contracts expire.

D. FOX and ESPN are in prime position to be able to mitigate damage claims since they split the T1 and T2 rights of the Big 12, ESPN owns Texas's T3, FOX owns Oklahoma's T3, and ESPN holds Kansas's T3 rights and the value of all the rest would be easily handled.

So there is motive and opportunity. The question remains whether or not there is the desire?

The fascinating thing is Fox apparently having a walk-away right.

Certainly presents an interesting situation.
01-14-2019 01:45 PM
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RE: FOX No Longer Airing BXII Championship Game
(01-14-2019 01:45 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  The fascinating thing is Fox apparently having a walk-away right.

Certainly presents an interesting situation.

Yeah, I thought the same thing. No mention of selling the rights - apparently Fox is just going to abandon them?

Wow.
01-14-2019 02:01 PM
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RE: FOX No Longer Airing BXII Championship Game
(01-14-2019 12:45 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  As pointed out in the article in the OP, the Big 12 sees this year's rating as the ceiling for the BXII CCG-- last year's game only garnered a 3.8 share. More often that not, the rating would be something in between.

The economic argument makes sense. At 3.8, it's delivering the same very-good-but-not-great audience as a top 20-30 regular season game. P5 regular season games on ESPN or Fox are worth an average of $4 to 6 million per game. Even if a 3.8 or 4.0 game might possibly be worth twice the average, that is still far below $20 million.

IIRC, the SEC is still paid separately for its CCG, while the ACC, Big Ten, and Pac-12 CCGs are included in the overall ESPN and/or Fox contract and don't get a separate fee over and above the annual contract amount. The Big 12 CCG was a special setup, presumably, because it was added midstream during existing TV deals.
01-14-2019 02:18 PM
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RE: FOX No Longer Airing BXII Championship Game
(01-14-2019 02:18 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(01-14-2019 12:45 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  As pointed out in the article in the OP, the Big 12 sees this year's rating as the ceiling for the BXII CCG-- last year's game only garnered a 3.8 share. More often that not, the rating would be something in between.

The economic argument makes sense. At 3.8, it's delivering the same very-good-but-not-great audience as a top 20-30 regular season game. P5 regular season games on ESPN or Fox are worth an average of $4 to 6 million per game. Even if a 3.8 or 4.0 game might possibly be worth twice the average, that is still far below $20 million.

IIRC, the SEC is still paid separately for its CCG, while the ACC, Big Ten, and Pac-12 CCGs are included in the overall ESPN and/or Fox contract and don't get a separate fee over and above the annual contract amount. The Big 12 CCG was a special setup, presumably, because it was added midstream during existing TV deals.

The big 10 was separate on the last deal. They got roughly 24 million.
01-14-2019 02:43 PM
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RE: FOX No Longer Airing BXII Championship Game
5.0, 7.3, 5.6, 5.3
Ratings for the last four big ten cogs. So it has averaged 5.8

(edit-if you go back one more year it was 3.5-the Ohio ST.-WI blowout-so over 5 years it averages 5.3, just slightly better than the two year Big 12 average of 5.0).
(This post was last modified: 01-14-2019 04:34 PM by bullet.)
01-14-2019 02:48 PM
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RE: FOX No Longer Airing BXII Championship Game
(01-14-2019 02:43 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(01-14-2019 02:18 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(01-14-2019 12:45 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  As pointed out in the article in the OP, the Big 12 sees this year's rating as the ceiling for the BXII CCG-- last year's game only garnered a 3.8 share. More often that not, the rating would be something in between.

The economic argument makes sense. At 3.8, it's delivering the same very-good-but-not-great audience as a top 20-30 regular season game. P5 regular season games on ESPN or Fox are worth an average of $4 to 6 million per game. Even if a 3.8 or 4.0 game might possibly be worth twice the average, that is still far below $20 million.

IIRC, the SEC is still paid separately for its CCG, while the ACC, Big Ten, and Pac-12 CCGs are included in the overall ESPN and/or Fox contract and don't get a separate fee over and above the annual contract amount. The Big 12 CCG was a special setup, presumably, because it was added midstream during existing TV deals.

The big 10 was separate on the last deal. They got roughly 24 million.

24 million is also too much.

Basing a CCG's valuation on how much a valuable regular season game costs seems like the right way to go. A game is a game, and a regular season game and a CCG that deliver the same number of viewers in similar time slots are worth the same amount.
01-14-2019 02:53 PM
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RE: FOX No Longer Airing BXII Championship Game
(01-14-2019 02:53 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(01-14-2019 02:43 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(01-14-2019 02:18 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(01-14-2019 12:45 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  As pointed out in the article in the OP, the Big 12 sees this year's rating as the ceiling for the BXII CCG-- last year's game only garnered a 3.8 share. More often that not, the rating would be something in between.

The economic argument makes sense. At 3.8, it's delivering the same very-good-but-not-great audience as a top 20-30 regular season game. P5 regular season games on ESPN or Fox are worth an average of $4 to 6 million per game. Even if a 3.8 or 4.0 game might possibly be worth twice the average, that is still far below $20 million.

IIRC, the SEC is still paid separately for its CCG, while the ACC, Big Ten, and Pac-12 CCGs are included in the overall ESPN and/or Fox contract and don't get a separate fee over and above the annual contract amount. The Big 12 CCG was a special setup, presumably, because it was added midstream during existing TV deals.

The big 10 was separate on the last deal. They got roughly 24 million.

24 million is also too much.

Basing a CCG's valuation on how much a valuable regular season game costs seems like the right way to go. A game is a game, and a regular season game and a CCG that deliver the same number of viewers in similar time slots are worth the same amount.

Do we even know how valuable a regular season game is to the networks since the conferences are paid for 13 weeks of games not by individual game in a particular time slot week in and week out?

And while an average might be doable for us message board posters, particularly with CBS's SEC TV contract, would the average truly tell us anything because networks are most likely assessing/estimating the higher viewed match-ups differently than the slightly above average, average, and below average match-ups?

For instance, how much of the SEC's $55 million per year contract with CBS has the network banking big on Ala/LSU, Ala/Aub, UGA/Fla and Ala/TAMU? For that matter, how undervalued is the SEC's TV contract with CBS?

Cheers,
Neil
01-14-2019 04:18 PM
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RE: FOX No Longer Airing BXII Championship Game
(01-14-2019 04:18 PM)OrangeDude Wrote:  
(01-14-2019 02:53 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(01-14-2019 02:43 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(01-14-2019 02:18 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(01-14-2019 12:45 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  As pointed out in the article in the OP, the Big 12 sees this year's rating as the ceiling for the BXII CCG-- last year's game only garnered a 3.8 share. More often that not, the rating would be something in between.

The economic argument makes sense. At 3.8, it's delivering the same very-good-but-not-great audience as a top 20-30 regular season game. P5 regular season games on ESPN or Fox are worth an average of $4 to 6 million per game. Even if a 3.8 or 4.0 game might possibly be worth twice the average, that is still far below $20 million.

IIRC, the SEC is still paid separately for its CCG, while the ACC, Big Ten, and Pac-12 CCGs are included in the overall ESPN and/or Fox contract and don't get a separate fee over and above the annual contract amount. The Big 12 CCG was a special setup, presumably, because it was added midstream during existing TV deals.

The big 10 was separate on the last deal. They got roughly 24 million.

24 million is also too much.

Basing a CCG's valuation on how much a valuable regular season game costs seems like the right way to go. A game is a game, and a regular season game and a CCG that deliver the same number of viewers in similar time slots are worth the same amount.

Do we even know how valuable a regular season game is to the networks since the conferences are paid for 13 weeks of games not by individual game in a particular time slot week in and week out?

And while an average might be doable for us message board posters, particularly with CBS's SEC TV contract, would the average truly tell us anything because networks are most likely assessing/estimating the higher viewed match-ups differently than the slightly above average, average, and below average match-ups?

For instance, how much of the SEC's $55 million per year contract with CBS has the network banking big on Ala/LSU, Ala/Aub, UGA/Fla and Ala/TAMU? For that matter, how undervalued is the SEC's TV contract with CBS?

Cheers,
Neil

That's one game a week. So it is valued at about $4 million a game. It is significantly undervalued.
01-14-2019 04:23 PM
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RE: FOX No Longer Airing BXII Championship Game
(01-14-2019 04:18 PM)OrangeDude Wrote:  
(01-14-2019 02:53 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(01-14-2019 02:43 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(01-14-2019 02:18 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(01-14-2019 12:45 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  As pointed out in the article in the OP, the Big 12 sees this year's rating as the ceiling for the BXII CCG-- last year's game only garnered a 3.8 share. More often that not, the rating would be something in between.

The economic argument makes sense. At 3.8, it's delivering the same very-good-but-not-great audience as a top 20-30 regular season game. P5 regular season games on ESPN or Fox are worth an average of $4 to 6 million per game. Even if a 3.8 or 4.0 game might possibly be worth twice the average, that is still far below $20 million.

IIRC, the SEC is still paid separately for its CCG, while the ACC, Big Ten, and Pac-12 CCGs are included in the overall ESPN and/or Fox contract and don't get a separate fee over and above the annual contract amount. The Big 12 CCG was a special setup, presumably, because it was added midstream during existing TV deals.

The big 10 was separate on the last deal. They got roughly 24 million.

24 million is also too much.

Basing a CCG's valuation on how much a valuable regular season game costs seems like the right way to go. A game is a game, and a regular season game and a CCG that deliver the same number of viewers in similar time slots are worth the same amount.

Do we even know how valuable a regular season game is to the networks since the conferences are paid for 13 weeks of games not by individual game in a particular time slot week in and week out?

And while an average might be doable for us message board posters, particularly with CBS's SEC TV contract, would the average truly tell us anything because networks are most likely assessing/estimating the higher viewed match-ups differently than the slightly above average, average, and below average match-ups?

For instance, how much of the SEC's $55 million per year contract with CBS has the network banking big on Ala/LSU, Ala/Aub, UGA/Fla and Ala/TAMU? For that matter, how undervalued is the SEC's TV contract with CBS?

Cheers,
Neil

The SEC on CBS TV contract is definitely undervalued, but this thing with Fox just ate away a little bit of that value, IMO. Why? It's now clear that Fox is not a bidder for college football rights, which eases the pressure on ESPN and CBS. I still think the SEC gets a nice bump, and I think they stay on CBS - but there's less pressure for CBS to bid it up now, IMO.
01-14-2019 04:23 PM
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