(01-14-2019 08:48 PM)converrl Wrote: I have to disagree here. If you are stating that quality college coaching does not matter, then look at the success rate for kids that come straight out of HS to the pros. The vast majority are busts because they didn't develop a basketball IQ and didn't last long in the League.
As far as consistent success being owed more to luck or the quality of the program, that doesn't hold much water either...the top 10 all-time programs show a consistent level of post-season success over decades--this isn't luck...it's the quality of the talent and the quality of the coaching.
I'm not saying coaching doesn't matter, I'm saying talent matters more. Far more. This is a sport dominated firstly by genes, not by fundamentals. One who doubts that need only look at the freakish height and athleticism of those who play at a high level.
As for luck, quality of coaching and talent don't exist in a vacuum. Traditions are built over time in particular ways because they work.
It's a lot like natural selection, it weeds out those who cannot stay due to circumstance. Whether you're talking a biological organism or an athletic department, circumstances shape what you can or can't bring in. There's a reason Miami of Ohio isn't Duke, and it's not because they don't know how, it's because they can't be Duke. There's a reason a 5'6 foot tall white guy like myself isn't the starting center for Warriors. There are things you can do to improve your luck, as luck is just probability. Building better facilities, establishing a long tradition, being the only game in town and having a large enough audience to draw interest from the right demographic.
At the end of the day, things have a reason for being or not being and it's not because people wished them to be. You can make the most of what you have but you don't have the same potential as the organization/person/city etc. next to you. No two situations are exactly the same and there is no uniform path to success that is guaranteed to get you what you want. Like idiot politicians who think they can plan for every eventuality and demand more power, you aren't as special as you think you are, and life is too complicated in all it's possibilities/variables for any person or administration to ever control.
If you see such an elite near future that's fine, but I don't.
The campus is fun but not the best. The tradition as of the last couple decades is good, but we don't have the same tradition as a Duke or North Carolina. UCLA can go through coaches like underwear, we make the wrong hire, it won't be so easy to get back up. Keep in mind also, the right hire isn't some finite easily defined thing.
Quote:If luck were the primary factor, then NO program would pay a coach ANYTHING and just let the players play.
I said luck was the primary factor in distinguishing the elite from the rest. Their paths according to time and circumstance weren't their own doing. That was chance. Not that they shouldn't be commended for taking advantage of it.
More over, every roster isn't equal, so that seems a silly argument. Hopefully you aren't as naive as to suggest every player was a blank slate, and ONLY got to where they are through hard work. There's lot's of people who don't have the kind of attributes and inborn ability/talent that the best of the best have and no amount of work will ever bridge that gap.
Quote:You also wouldn't see wins and an increase in the quality of a program follow a coach as he moves from school to school--some perfect examples are Larry Brown, Calipari, Lon Krueger and Roy Williams--there are many more.
I'm not saying you can't step up with regard to coaching staff, just that it's not as easy as plug and play. Larry Brown won jack **** at SMU. Calipari at Memphis compared to Calipari at Kentucky is a joke and the only reason they saw an uptick at Kentucky is because Tubby Smith wasn't nearly as sleazy as the others who'd been there. Lon Kruger is also a terrible example of an elite coach. He was okay at Illinois and even with his one good season at Florida, he left there with a 104-80 record. He doesn't belong in the same conversation. You take away Buddy Heild who got them to a Sweet Sixteen, followed by a final four and what has Kruger done in the rest of his tenure at Oklahoma?
Quote:If a program wants to improve it's profile it has 2 choices:
1. Shell out coin for a coach with a resume full of credentials
2. ID an "up and comer" and make him a permanent feature of your program
If you sit back and wait for "luck" you'll grow a Rip Van Winkle before you see consistent post-season success.
BTW--it works the same way in FB.
Yeah, how'd that high profile Tuberville hire turn out for us?
Like I said, you can up your chances, but chance implies probability, probability implies uncertainty and uncertainty implies luck. You aren't going to magically know the right way. You steer as best you can but you don't rock the boat arbitrarily, that's just dumb. Take a risk when it's necessary, not just because you're pouty you got your meat but not your pudding.