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bearcatmark Online
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Post: #41
RE: Micks defense
(01-11-2019 01:58 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  I bet I could find a game thread for every single team in the country in which their opponent shot well from three, and every comment will be about how bad their perimeter defense is, and always has been.

This is undoubtedly true. We saw them last year when UC was 7th in the country in three point percentage defense.

However, reality is their 3 point defense has been bad this year. Their defense as a whole is still really good though. I'm confident they'll get better at it with more work. Their matchup zone isn't an easy defense. They do a great job taking away looks inside, but they sometimes over help and haven't quite figured out rotations and communication at the level they need to. That's resulted in some good looks from 3.
 
01-11-2019 02:21 PM
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MrCincy Offline
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Post: #42
RE: Micks defense
Mick's a winner: He will always be a winner, because of the way he plays defense. Look at Coach Isso at Mich. State. How many 4 & 5 star players does he recruit. ( Hardly Any ) He also wins yearly because of the way he plays defense. You solve the 3 pt. problem. I'll take the great defense.
 
01-11-2019 02:28 PM
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Post: #43
RE: Micks defense
(01-11-2019 02:28 PM)MrCincy Wrote:  Mick's a winner: He will always be a winner, because of the way he plays defense. Look at Coach Isso at Mich. State. How many 4 & 5 star players does he recruit. ( Hardly Any ) He also wins yearly because of the way he plays defense. You solve the 3 pt. problem. I'll take the great defense.

As MSU is my second choice to follow after UC, I found this to be the dumbest damn post of the year : List of recruits last 5 years.

2015--- 2 four stars-- 3 commits
2016--- 2 five stars and 2 four stars-- 4 commits
2017--- 1 five star and 1 four star-- 2 commits
2018--- 5 four stars-- 5 commits
2019--- 2 four stars-- 2 commits

Damn, Bulldog is better than this.....04-cheers
 
01-11-2019 02:47 PM
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Post: #44
RE: Micks defense
I am one who admittedly believes that many of UC's struggles to win some games is due to the perimeter 3 point defensive strategy... this year and in past years. IMO, it will become a more glaring issue this year due to the loss of Clark, Washington and Evans from last year. That is not a slam on Mick or the current players, they have a lot of growing to do and a great deal of potential. But until that is realized, UC is going to struggle. I'm also a numbers guy so I took a look to see if I was overreacting or if there was some validity to my thought process. Including last night's game, here's what I found:
** 9 of UC's 16 opponents have shot a higher 3 pt % against UC than their season average.
** In UC's 3 losses, the opponents have made 3's at a rate almost 11% higher than their season average
** UC's opponents average 207th out of 351 D1 teams and UC has only seen 2 teams in the Top 100 through today
** Particularly worrisome is that in league play, our 3 opponents have made 16% more 3s than their season average and we have not played the cream of the AAC or the leagues best 3 pt shooting teams yet
** Also with the 3 conference opponents, UC has allowed them to make almost 3.5 more 3's per game than UC has made even though UC has taken almost 2 more 3''s per game

Throw in a couple of quick comparison's to last year's team, and things look even starker...
* Last year in AAC games, UC allowed only 5.6 made 3's per game vs. almost 11 they are giving up through the first 3 AAC games this season. For last year in ALL games, UC allowed only 6.4 made 3's per game;
* Also, last year, no matter how you sliced it last year, UC made more 3's than it's opponents. This year, UC is averaging 6.3 (down from 7.3 over all of last year) made 3's while opponents are making 7.9 (up from 6.4).

There is still lots of basketball to be played, but my fear is that teams that do any scouting at all will determine that shooting the 3 ball is the way to beat UC. And if UC's defensive strategy doesn't change in relation to the 3, this team will continue to struggle to hold leads or to compete with the better teams remaining on the schedule and in March Madness.
 
(This post was last modified: 01-11-2019 06:21 PM by Cal1362.)
01-11-2019 06:01 PM
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Bearcatbdub Offline
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Post: #45
RE: Micks defense
(01-11-2019 02:21 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  
(01-11-2019 01:58 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  I bet I could find a game thread for every single team in the country in which their opponent shot well from three, and every comment will be about how bad their perimeter defense is, and always has been.

This is undoubtedly true. We saw them last year when UC was 7th in the country in three point percentage defense.

However, reality is their 3 point defense has been bad this year. Their defense as a whole is still really good though. I'm confident they'll get better at it with more work. Their matchup zone isn't an easy defense. They do a great job taking away looks inside, but they sometimes over help and haven't quite figured out rotations and communication at the level they need to. That's resulted in some good looks from 3.

One thing to take into account is we have Jennifer and Broome out there a large percentage of the time. Altho decent defenders neither is particularly difficult to shoot over. Next year you are looking at a back row of Keith, Logan, Jarron, and Trevor all long guards that will prove much more difficult to get those threes off against.
 
01-11-2019 08:06 PM
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Post: #46
RE: Micks defense
(01-11-2019 06:01 PM)Cal1362 Wrote:  I am one who admittedly believes that many of UC's struggles to win some games is due to the perimeter 3 point defensive strategy... this year and in past years. IMO, it will become a more glaring issue this year due to the loss of Clark, Washington and Evans from last year. That is not a slam on Mick or the current players, they have a lot of growing to do and a great deal of potential. But until that is realized, UC is going to struggle. I'm also a numbers guy so I took a look to see if I was overreacting or if there was some validity to my thought process. Including last night's game, here's what I found:
** 9 of UC's 16 opponents have shot a higher 3 pt % against UC than their season average.
** In UC's 3 losses, the opponents have made 3's at a rate almost 11% higher than their season average
** UC's opponents average 207th out of 351 D1 teams and UC has only seen 2 teams in the Top 100 through today
** Particularly worrisome is that in league play, our 3 opponents have made 16% more 3s than their season average and we have not played the cream of the AAC or the leagues best 3 pt shooting teams yet
** Also with the 3 conference opponents, UC has allowed them to make almost 3.5 more 3's per game than UC has made even though UC has taken almost 2 more 3''s per game

Throw in a couple of quick comparison's to last year's team, and things look even starker...
* Last year in AAC games, UC allowed only 5.6 made 3's per game vs. almost 11 they are giving up through the first 3 AAC games this season. For last year in ALL games, UC allowed only 6.4 made 3's per game;
* Also, last year, no matter how you sliced it last year, UC made more 3's than it's opponents. This year, UC is averaging 6.3 (down from 7.3 over all of last year) made 3's while opponents are making 7.9 (up from 6.4).

There is still lots of basketball to be played, but my fear is that teams that do any scouting at all will determine that shooting the 3 ball is the way to beat UC. And if UC's defensive strategy doesn't change in relation to the 3, this team will continue to struggle to hold leads or to compete with the better teams remaining on the schedule and in March Madness.

Good stuff Cal. Post more often.
 
01-11-2019 09:24 PM
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Post: #47
RE: Micks defense
(01-11-2019 08:06 PM)Bearcatbdub Wrote:  
(01-11-2019 02:21 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  
(01-11-2019 01:58 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  I bet I could find a game thread for every single team in the country in which their opponent shot well from three, and every comment will be about how bad their perimeter defense is, and always has been.

This is undoubtedly true. We saw them last year when UC was 7th in the country in three point percentage defense.

However, reality is their 3 point defense has been bad this year. Their defense as a whole is still really good though. I'm confident they'll get better at it with more work. Their matchup zone isn't an easy defense. They do a great job taking away looks inside, but they sometimes over help and haven't quite figured out rotations and communication at the level they need to. That's resulted in some good looks from 3.

One thing to take into account is we have Jennifer and Broome out there a large percentage of the time. Altho decent defenders neither is particularly difficult to shoot over. Next year you are looking at a back row of Keith, Logan, Jarron, and Trevor all long guards that will prove much more difficult to get those threes off against.

and samari. i do like the prospects for next year. probably hella more turnovers. hope diarra gets more pt
 
01-11-2019 09:50 PM
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Post: #48
RE: Micks defense
(01-11-2019 06:01 PM)Cal1362 Wrote:  I am one who admittedly believes that many of UC's struggles to win some games is due to the perimeter 3 point defensive strategy... this year and in past years. IMO, it will become a more glaring issue this year due to the loss of Clark, Washington and Evans from last year. That is not a slam on Mick or the current players, they have a lot of growing to do and a great deal of potential. But until that is realized, UC is going to struggle. I'm also a numbers guy so I took a look to see if I was overreacting or if there was some validity to my thought process. Including last night's game, here's what I found:
** 9 of UC's 16 opponents have shot a higher 3 pt % against UC than their season average.
** In UC's 3 losses, the opponents have made 3's at a rate almost 11% higher than their season average
** UC's opponents average 207th out of 351 D1 teams and UC has only seen 2 teams in the Top 100 through today
** Particularly worrisome is that in league play, our 3 opponents have made 16% more 3s than their season average and we have not played the cream of the AAC or the leagues best 3 pt shooting teams yet
** Also with the 3 conference opponents, UC has allowed them to make almost 3.5 more 3's per game than UC has made even though UC has taken almost 2 more 3''s per game

Throw in a couple of quick comparison's to last year's team, and things look even starker...
* Last year in AAC games, UC allowed only 5.6 made 3's per game vs. almost 11 they are giving up through the first 3 AAC games this season. For last year in ALL games, UC allowed only 6.4 made 3's per game;
* Also, last year, no matter how you sliced it last year, UC made more 3's than it's opponents. This year, UC is averaging 6.3 (down from 7.3 over all of last year) made 3's while opponents are making 7.9 (up from 6.4).

There is still lots of basketball to be played, but my fear is that teams that do any scouting at all will determine that shooting the 3 ball is the way to beat UC. And if UC's defensive strategy doesn't change in relation to the 3, this team will continue to struggle to hold leads or to compete with the better teams remaining on the schedule and in March Madness.

Interesting stuff, but it's impossible to get much from these numbers, especially those from only 3 conference games. I'm inclined to think that these stats will revert to the mean, and we'll start talking about how improved the D is, when it's probably just that Tulsa (and ECU to a lesser extent) had a lucky game from 3.
 
01-11-2019 10:21 PM
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Post: #49
RE: Micks defense
One concerning statistic about our defense is we are giving up 3 point shots 44% of the time. That ranks 314th in the country.

We haven't kept 3 point shots down since we got to the AAC but its much worse this year than in previous years.

2015 - 33.3
2016 - 35.2
2017 - 37.0
2018 - 37.8
2019 - 44.0



with analytics teams are realizing 3 point shooting is key and mid range shots are terrible. if you're scouting our defense it makes sense to almost give up on trying to shoot from inside the arc, you won't get many clean looks there.
 
01-12-2019 02:09 PM
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Post: #50
RE: Micks defense
The thing that puzzles me is everyone complains that Mick recruits athletes,so if we have the best athletes then why are we not playing man to man??? You can still switch and play helpside!!!Way to many times where guys don’t switch and we give up open 3’s
 
01-13-2019 08:32 AM
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Post: #51
RE: Micks defense
USF is 106 of 320 from 3 which is 33.1%
Opponents are hitting 31.2%


Lets see the USF % be over 40% v Mick D.
 
01-13-2019 08:51 AM
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Post: #52
RE: Micks defense
(01-13-2019 08:32 AM)mikecat Wrote:  The thing that puzzles me is everyone complains that Mick recruits athletes,so if we have the best athletes then why are we not playing man to man??? You can still switch and play helpside!!!Way to many times where guys don’t switch and we give up open 3’s

The match up zone works some of the time but I don't understand why UC can't switch to man to man if they are playing a team that gets hot from behind the arc.
 
01-13-2019 09:02 AM
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Post: #53
RE: Micks defense
(01-13-2019 08:51 AM)doss2 Wrote:  USF is 106 of 320 from 3 which is 33.1%
Opponents are hitting 31.2%


Lets see the USF % be over 40% v Mick D.
Bearcat opponents are hitting over 35% of their 3's against us on average, and UConn followed suit hittng just over 40% of theirs last night.

More worrisome to me is that
#1 UC is losing the "net 3 pointer battle" meaning we are making fewer on average than our opponents which puts even more pressure on the less than potent offense UC had shown this far
and #2 most of our opponents have shot more 3's against UC than they do in their other games on average. That could be a designed offensive strategy by them or a be result of our defensive strategy/struggles to stop the 3. Either way, the result will be that it's harder for this team to maintain a lead or win in general if the other team can score more points per possession than UC can.

I hope UC can and does shore up the 3 pt D or I fear we will struggle to finish in the top 3 or 4 of the AAC.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk
 
(This post was last modified: 01-13-2019 09:55 AM by Cal1362.)
01-13-2019 09:52 AM
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Cal1362 Online
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Post: #54
RE: Micks defense
Put another way, even if UC made 3's at the same % as our opponents are (approx 36%) we would still have 27 fewer made 3's for the season which means UC has to make at least 3 more 2 point shots or make almost 5 more FT (or some combination of both) to winss. That's a huge order for a team that is not an offensive juggernaut.
 
01-13-2019 10:09 AM
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Post: #55
RE: Micks defense
This team apparently thought the AAC was going to be a breeze after the 93-61 beat down of Tulane to start league play. Since that game they've looked nothing like the typical Cincinnati team on defense.

Following the Tulane game their AdjD was 15th best in the country. After tonight's game they have fallen all the way down to #35 AdjD. A 20 spot drop in games against offensively challenged ECU, Tulsa, UConn, and USF! That is very alarming.

I'm just glad to be 4-1 in the conference right now.
 
01-15-2019 09:54 PM
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Post: #56
RE: Micks defense
4-1 but the toughest stretch coming.

And the AAC is improved this year, especially middle and down. IE less truly sucky teams. At least IMO.
 
01-15-2019 10:24 PM
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