OOC play is pretty much over. I ran some stats on the five teams we played in 2017 and 2018. We went 1-4 against these teams both years. Here are the interesting ones I found. Not only comapring how UNCW performed year to year, but also what these other teams were doing during this 1-4 record each year

The five teams were Davidson, UNCG, Furman, Campbell and ECU. Here were the stats I found most compelling.

1. 2017 UNCW 16 offensive rebounds to 10 - 42.4 total to 34.4
2018 UNCW 11 offensive rebounds to 10.6 - 36.6 total to 36

For a team that doesn't create a lot of turnovers, that's about 6 posessions per game less for UNCW this year, many of which were likely putbacks for easy scores.

2. Both years UNCW averaged about 15 TO's per game to about 10 for our opponents. Combine this with the rebounding decrease in 2018, and that is about an 11 posession disadvantage.

3. Steals - UNCW averaged about 4.6 steals per game in 2017 and is down to 3 in 2018. Oppenents averaged about 6.5 steals against us both years. That's another 2-3 posessions per game disadvantge, which is now about 14 posessions per game.

4. Three pt. Attempts - Opponents averaged 27 three point attempts both years, UNCW averaged 19 last year and 23 this year.

5. Three pt. % - UNCW averaged .378 and .364 respectively. Opponents averaged .39 and .356. UNCW actually shot a higher percentage than our opponents this year but averaged four fewer attempts.

6. Field goals - UNCW has made 45.5% and 43.64% compared to 49.3% and 49.7% for our opponents. We averaged 65 attempts as did our opponents in 2017. In 2018, we are averaging 59 attempts to 66 for our opponents.

The rebounding stat stands out the most to me. Against these same teams last year, we had a six rebound per game advantage, with six of those on the offensive end last year. Considering the fact Cacok coralled most of those, and maybe even put them back, that could account for about 6-10 points per game.

TO/Steals leads to about seven extra posessions per game for our opponents. Again, a TO/steal is not only a lost opportunity for UNCW, but a gained opportunity for our opponents. If you figure UNCW would have scored on 43% of those posessions and our opponents about 49%, that is a net loss of about 11 ppg.

3 pt. shots - Opponents took about four more three point attempts in 2018 and hit 35.6%. That's a four point net gain. In 2017 it was about eight more attempts at 39%, or about 9 points per game advantage.

These are the main areas of concern for UNCW. These are also areas where our opponents have winning records compared to UNCW.

We've narrowed the three point gap, the turnover/steals gap is about the same, and the rebounding advantage we had has disappeared. Obviously, giving up turnovers and steals is a huge problem, but the loss of a 6 offensive rebounds per game advantage on top of that is huge.

Losing Marcus Bryan and replacing him with a jump-shooting Cylla seems to me to the biggest difference in the rebounding department.

It starts with pressuring the ball and building a wall. They have to get that done better. Perhaps a little more Sims will help? I'm liking his development lately, but he's still just a freshman. Estime can defend pretty decent too so that gives you some length with those 2. We need Fornes and Taylor to play well as well. Toews is still developing, but hopefully he will get there. We need to play better D. And, we definitely need to space appropriately so that we can pass more effectively. Talley was very good at driving the ball downhill which made life easier in the TO department.

I brought out the stats because we've actually regressed from last year against these same opponents.
We gave up an average of 89.2 ppg last year and 89.8 ppg this year, so our defense hasn't improved at all awful numbers.
Numbers that will give you a losing record every time. What surprised me is that we averaged 79.8 ppg last year and 76.8 ppg this year, so we are actually scoring less.

I am concerned because I was expecting us to progress quite a bit with a deeper bench and a coach with a full year under his belt. If this is any indication, we haven't progressed and have actually gone backwards. That doesn't bode well for conference play.

https://twitter.com/CoachBobWalsh/status...94560?s=20

Defense, Defense, Defense

Until we improve on defense we are going to struggle to win.

(12-21-2018 07:32 AM)82hawk Wrote:  I brought out the stats because we've actually regressed from last year against these same opponents.
We gave up an average of 89.2 ppg last year and 89.8 ppg this year, so our defense hasn't improved at all awful numbers.
Numbers that will give you a losing record every time. What surprised me is that we averaged 79.8 ppg last year and 76.8 ppg this year, so we are actually scoring less.

I am concerned because I was expecting us to progress quite a bit with a deeper bench and a coach with a full year under his belt. If this is any indication, we haven't progressed and have actually gone backwards. That doesn't bode well for conference play.

82, i'd be interested to see minutes played during those games for Cacock. He seems to be in much worse foul trouble this year than last. Less mins for him impact those numbers for sure, specifically rebounding and scoring(and likely even defense)

I like comparative statistics topic like this one. Here are Cacok's minutes with last season listed first:

Campbell: 29, 36
Davidson: 34, 29
ECU: 37, 25
Furman: 26, 21
UNCG: 32, 33
Mean: 31.6, 28.8