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Game 12 - @ UVA
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Sitting bull Offline
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Post: #101
RE: Game 12 - @ UVA
(12-23-2018 08:23 PM)TribeNiner Wrote:  
(12-23-2018 08:05 PM)Sitting bull Wrote:  The OOC schedule was awful for a team that had no leadership and loaded with freshman. This team would have benfitted from a schedule that allowed them to build some confidence. It was obvious when it was released this was going to be a tough start. How many games were we actually favored?

The unfortunate part is we head into a weak CAA with a team that has talent though feels like a bunch of losers.

I don’t think the schedule is to blame. According to Warren Nolan we’ve only played one other team in the top 100 (Radford). We’ve played four teams ranked 200 or worse and we’re 2-2 in those games.

I know that it’s sacreligious around here, but coaching is a part of not getting production from your guys, not playing defense, not adapting your offensive system to your players (or recruiting players in a plan that fits your system, etc.).

But I don’t think the schedule is to blame.

I don't know Warren Nolan and I'm not pretending we are playing murderers - but:
@UIC
@Duquesne
@Notre Dame
@Marshall
@ODU
@Virginia

I didn't expect to win any of these 6 games when I originally saw the schedule.

Other than that, the record now is about what I expected. I thought we would beat Radford and Mason at home, and likely lose to St. Joes and @Hampton. So a split there.

So yes, I think the schedule was not favorable to give this year's team a chance to build some confidence.
12-24-2018 02:01 PM
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Zorch Offline
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Post: #102
RE: Game 12 - @ UVA
(12-24-2018 01:20 PM)bubbadog57 Wrote:  Sometimes players just miss foul shots, it becomes contagious, and you just have to suffer through it.

(12-24-2018 01:58 PM)Tribe32 Wrote:  It becomes a confidence thing like when golfers get the yips on the putting green.

It's a lot easier to make 18-20 shots in practice when you are shooting ten at a time than to make the front end of a one and one when you are tired and the pressure amps up a notch or two with loud crowds, etc.

That's the stuff you can't practice. You only get it by playing. Ice in veins matters.

One last comment and then I'll let it rest (at least until after the next game): you are right about game environments being different from practice ....BUT that is exactly why you do practice, practice, practice. So that it becomes muscle memory and no thinking is required at all (with no thinking then the player doesn't need to get awed by the situation). So the best way to have ice water in the veins is to just shoot it and let the muscle memory from hundreds of practice foul shots take over.
12-24-2018 08:47 PM
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TribeNiner Offline
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Post: #103
RE: Game 12 - @ UVA
(12-24-2018 02:01 PM)Sitting bull Wrote:  
(12-23-2018 08:23 PM)TribeNiner Wrote:  
(12-23-2018 08:05 PM)Sitting bull Wrote:  The OOC schedule was awful for a team that had no leadership and loaded with freshman. This team would have benfitted from a schedule that allowed them to build some confidence. It was obvious when it was released this was going to be a tough start. How many games were we actually favored?

The unfortunate part is we head into a weak CAA with a team that has talent though feels like a bunch of losers.

I don’t think the schedule is to blame. According to Warren Nolan we’ve only played one other team in the top 100 (Radford). We’ve played four teams ranked 200 or worse and we’re 2-2 in those games.

I know that it’s sacreligious around here, but coaching is a part of not getting production from your guys, not playing defense, not adapting your offensive system to your players (or recruiting players in a plan that fits your system, etc.).

But I don’t think the schedule is to blame.

I don't know Warren Nolan and I'm not pretending we are playing murderers - but:
@UIC
@Duquesne
@Notre Dame
@Marshall
@ODU
@Virginia

I didn't expect to win any of these 6 games when I originally saw the schedule.

Other than that, the record now is about what I expected. I thought we would beat Radford and Mason at home, and likely lose to St. Joes and @Hampton. So a split there.

So yes, I think the schedule was not favorable to give this year's team a chance to build some confidence.

Warren Nolan is probably the most cited person for advanced metrics, and is a great source for efficiency ratings, etc.

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2019/s...lliam-Mary
12-26-2018 05:40 AM
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Florida tribe fan Offline
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Post: #104
RE: Game 12 - @ UVA
(12-24-2018 02:01 PM)Sitting bull Wrote:  
(12-23-2018 08:23 PM)TribeNiner Wrote:  
(12-23-2018 08:05 PM)Sitting bull Wrote:  The OOC schedule was awful for a team that had no leadership and loaded with freshman. This team would have benfitted from a schedule that allowed them to build some confidence. It was obvious when it was released this was going to be a tough start. How many games were we actually favored?

The unfortunate part is we head into a weak CAA with a team that has talent though feels like a bunch of losers.

I don’t think the schedule is to blame. According to Warren Nolan we’ve only played one other team in the top 100 (Radford). We’ve played four teams ranked 200 or worse and we’re 2-2 in those games.

I know that it’s sacreligious around here, but coaching is a part of not getting production from your guys, not playing defense, not adapting your offensive system to your players (or recruiting players in a plan that fits your system, etc.).

But I don’t think the schedule is to blame.

I don't know Warren Nolan and I'm not pretending we are playing murderers - but:
@UIC
@Duquesne
@Notre Dame
@Marshall
@ODU
@Virginia

I didn't expect to win any of these 6 games when I originally saw the schedule.

Other than that, the record now is about what I expected. I thought we would beat Radford and Mason at home, and likely lose to St. Joes and @Hampton. So a split there.

So yes, I think the schedule was not favorable to give this year's team a chance to build some confidence.

I refuse to second guess the schedule. Hope the program can duplicate/approximate next season. Of more concern than won - loss record may be performance during the losses. Maybe this will be the year a Tribe team peaks in Feb/Mar.
12-26-2018 07:59 AM
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Sitting bull Offline
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Post: #105
RE: Game 12 - @ UVA
I'm not advocating necessarily a weaker schedule. I was only throwing out there, for all the comments of disappointment to date, the schedule played a role in our current record and it does take a mental toll on confidence.

Also, too many OOC road games. If we are going to schedule tough, give the team a few chances to catch their breath. The biggest mistake was the 5 team round robin with only one home game. A game at ND isn't worth two more road games. Home games with local VMI, Liberty or any Ivy team would have balanced better.
12-26-2018 08:29 AM
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Tribe32 Offline
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Post: #106
RE: Game 12 - @ UVA
Several folks have posted things about the team's confidence and one specifically described it as fragile. I don't buy it. I think the fans may have issues with confidence, but I've never heard or seen anything that leads me to believe that this team is down on itself, the coaches, etc. Sitting Bull's point is well taken. We've played a tough schedule. In fairness, there is no chance that anyone would have thought any of the games were push overs other than Peace and if they did, they had some sort of delusion of the level of competition. High Point blew us out a year ago and Hampton owns us for some strange reason. Those were the two games that we should have won on paper. We will know exactly what we are dealing with at about 9:30 on Friday night. JMU isn't a good team, but better than a year ago. If we win that one going away we are moving in the right direction. If we lose it and don't give a lot of effort that's probably the beginning of a landslide of crap.
12-26-2018 10:11 AM
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WMTRIBE75 Offline
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Post: #107
RE: Game 12 - @ UVA
(12-26-2018 10:11 AM)Tribe32 Wrote:  Several folks have posted things about the team's confidence and one specifically described it as fragile. I don't buy it. I think the fans may have issues with confidence, but I've never heard or seen anything that leads me to believe that this team is down on itself, the coaches, etc. Sitting Bull's point is well taken. We've played a tough schedule. In fairness, there is no chance that anyone would have thought any of the games were push overs other than Peace and if they did, they had some sort of delusion of the level of competition. High Point blew us out a year ago and Hampton owns us for some strange reason. Those were the two games that we should have won on paper. We will know exactly what we are dealing with at about 9:30 on Friday night. JMU isn't a good team, but better than a year ago. If we win that one going away we are moving in the right direction. If we lose it and don't give a lot of effort that's probably the beginning of a landslide of crap.

We trailed JMU by 20 in the second half and by 9 with 50 seconds left last year at Kaplan. Unless this year's JMU roster is materially different from last year's, winning the game period will be an indication that we are moving in the right direction!!

We lost 3 conference home games last year including what is turning into our annual stinker against Drexel. Every home game is critical and EVERY home win should be embraced, not assumed.
12-26-2018 11:51 AM
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Mrs. Got Ribe Offline
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Post: #108
RE: Game 12 - @ UVA
(12-26-2018 11:51 AM)WMTRIBE75 Wrote:  We trailed JMU by 20 in the second half and by 9 with 50 seconds left last year at Kaplan. Unless this year's JMU roster is materially different from last year's, winning the game period will be an indication that we are moving in the right direction!!

We lost 3 conference home games last year including what is turning into our annual stinker against Drexel. Every home game is critical and EVERY home win should be embraced, not assumed.

Exactly
12-26-2018 02:58 PM
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Sitting bull Offline
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Post: #109
RE: Game 12 - @ UVA
In the "seems to me" state:
1) W&M always underperforms vs JMU at Kaplan
2) W&M outperforms expectations vs JMU in Harrisonburg
12-26-2018 06:09 PM
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Rocco Offline
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Post: #110
RE: Game 12 - @ UVA
(12-26-2018 06:09 PM)Sitting bull Wrote:  In the "seems to me" state:
1) W&M always underperforms vs JMU at Kaplan
2) W&M outperforms expectations vs JMU in Harrisonburg

College Basketball reference only goes back to the 2010 season. Tribe vs. JMU over that time period.

W&M is 6-2 at home, with the two losses in 2011 (when W&M was really bad) and and 2013 (when JMU made the tourney and W&M was pretty bad). They're 4-4 in the hellmouth that is Harrisonburg.
(This post was last modified: 12-26-2018 07:17 PM by Rocco.)
12-26-2018 07:15 PM
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Tribal Offline
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Post: #111
RE: Game 12 - @ UVA
(12-26-2018 07:15 PM)Rocco Wrote:  
(12-26-2018 06:09 PM)Sitting bull Wrote:  In the "seems to me" state:
1) W&M always underperforms vs JMU at Kaplan
2) W&M outperforms expectations vs JMU in Harrisonburg

College Basketball reference only goes back to the 2010 season. Tribe vs. JMU over that time period.

W&M is 6-2 at home, with the two losses in 2011 (when W&M was really bad) and and 2013 (when JMU made the tourney and W&M was pretty bad). They're 4-4 in the hellmouth that is Harrisonburg.
Tribeathletics.com goes back to '02. Save for one season when they swept us, we've owned them at both venues and in the playoffs.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
12-26-2018 07:31 PM
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billymac Offline
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Post: #112
RE: Game 12 - @ UVA
I'm not Mr. Stat Guy, but Do with it what you will:

James Madison all time record:

Games: 96
Record: 46-50
Home: 26-16
Away: 16-24
Tourney: 4-10
Winning Pct: .479
First Meeting: 2/11/78
Last meeting: 1/11/18

Under Shaver:

Regular Season Games: 30
Record: 19-11
Home: 12-3
Away: 7-8

Tourney: 1-1

Since 2013, we are 8-2 overall.
(This post was last modified: 12-26-2018 10:42 PM by billymac.)
12-26-2018 10:40 PM
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TribeNiner Offline
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Post: #113
RE: Game 12 - @ UVA
(12-26-2018 10:40 PM)billymac Wrote:  I'm not Mr. Stat Guy, but Do with it what you will:

James Madison all time record:

Games: 96
Record: 46-50
Home: 26-16
Away: 16-24
Tourney: 4-10
Winning Pct: .479
First Meeting: 2/11/78
Last meeting: 1/11/18

Under Shaver:

Regular Season Games: 30
Record: 19-11
Home: 12-3
Away: 7-8

Tourney: 1-1

Since 2013, we are 8-2 overall.

That makes some sense. Tony Shaver started in 03-04.

From 77-78 (when we first played) until 02-03 (the year before Shaver), the Dukes' record was 424 - 318 (.5714).

From 03-04 until last year (last time the teams met), the Dukes' record was 197 - 278 (.4147). That's a drop of 15.67%.

At the same time, W&M's record from 77-78 until 02-03 was 296 - 423 (.4117). Since 03-04, W&M's record is 212-251 (.4579), a difference of 4.62%

So it makes sense in the first 66 games they were 39-27 (.5909) while they've gone 11-19 since then (.3667). This drop of roughly 22% makes sense given their 15-16% fall off and our roughly 5% improvement.

Obviously, not every series will perfectly track the cycles of programs, but given the fairly overlapped competition of the two teams and the pretty consistent data, it's interesting to see how the series record reflects the status of the two teams overall throughout the years.
(This post was last modified: 12-28-2018 10:51 AM by TribeNiner.)
12-28-2018 10:41 AM
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Sitting bull Offline
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Post: #114
RE: Game 12 - @ UVA
(12-26-2018 06:09 PM)Sitting bull Wrote:  In the "seems to me" state:
1) W&M always underperforms vs JMU at Kaplan
2) W&M outperforms expectations vs JMU in Harrisonburg

Still seems that way
12-29-2018 01:53 PM
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