JRsec
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RE: Alston Update: Conference leaders are preparing for a new model
(12-15-2018 09:18 AM)bigblueblindness Wrote: (12-15-2018 01:19 AM)AllTideUp Wrote: So as soon as the Alston case is decided and the appeals have been exhausted, how do things start to break?
Well, I think the SEC is probably the first league to implement a free market system. In other words, no spending caps.
I think the other leagues will follow albeit some of them will be following in an attempt to survive rather than as a matter of desiring to be competitive. After all, being in a league with no caps doesn't really hurt an individual school if they're not already a big spender and don't particularly care about being in the top echelon.
The question then becomes whether or not certain schools find a way to back out of their current conference and join another association that's more in line with their goals? Will the economic might of the SEC lead to some leagues giving up the ghost and just allowing themselves to be relegated?
I've thought before that we might see one national league with regional divisions as the conference structure would allow for a nicer, neater alignment than bothering with an organization like the NCAA or navigating the politics between multiple league offices.
BUT..there's pride involved and money for that matter so I do think all the Power leagues will attempt to survive in this new model.
One of the consultants in the original CBS article on the topic doesn't think the case will be the true catalyst...
Quote:But not everyone believes that the lawsuit will have the primary impact on realignment. Instead, one consultant told CBS Sports that new TV deals, which aren't expected to be negotiated until 2024 or 2025, will be the driving force behind new conferences.
"I think it goes to a 64-team super division," veteran media consultant Chris Bevilacqua said. "I think there's going to be realignment. The driver of realignment isn't going to be free market of player services [via the Alston trial], but it will be when the next TV deals come up.
There is a good point here that the funding through TV networks is what's going to really shake things up. If all the Power leagues try to survive the initial wave of a new model then it makes sense that TV money will do what it always does and separate the haves from the have-nots.
Is it a matter of one or the other? Either the Alston case will send shockwaves through college athletics or the next round of TV contracts will?
Well, if the NCAA loses then they can't be mutually exclusive because the funding needs of schools are going to change and perhaps dramatically. So the best way to get more significant funding is to bundle content. The more content under one roof the more the networks are likely to pay to maintain access to that content.
Might we see certain leagues simply merge rather than going through the painful process of separation? After all, there are GOR concerns. Perhaps you'll see some schools simply allow themselves to be relegated while most of a particular league merges with another?
I think when you look at the specifics then there's a lot of ways this could play out even if we generally arrive at the same place.
Part of what got me thinking this way is the move that Vanderbilt made with their new AD. Vandy does not generate a great deal of revenue as a whole even though their SEC membership guarantees a great media deal. It looks like they have no intention of giving up their place in the world. If Vandy is willing to go that route then how many others will really be willing to relegate themselves? That dynamic alone is fascinating to me.
I don't really have a conclusion here or an overall point, just that there's some interesting facets that have to be ironed out.
I think pride will be the main driver of why the SEC will want to maintain its independence and not join a singular, national office. In terms of pure numbers, SEC schools and our ilk (i.e. FSU, Clemson, Oklahoma, Ohio State) would make up the majority of the revenue, but we would be the minority in terms of votes assuming each school has a single vote as far as policy and committee nominees. When you join a league, you have to at least give the appearance of a single voice, which means a single commissioner. Does anyone really see the SEC schools rallying behind a figure who acts more like Delany or Scott? It would require an exceptionally transcendent figure to join the highest tier schools in a unified voice. I would have thought someone like Oliver Luck could do it, but he was smart enough to get out of college athletics administration at the national level.
Historically, the Deep South (South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, most of Florida, North Carolina, and Arkansas) has presumed superiority and regional independence with matters that directly concern their welfare. Further, Greater Appalachia (Kentucky, Tennessee, Missouri, West Virginia, most of Ohio and Indiana, parts of Arkansas and North Carolina) has been politically undermined since the formation of our country. The only saving grace for a potential cooperation of a single, top tier college athletic association is that New England and New York would not be the power base. If decisions were, or even appeared to be, emerging from there or the Left Coast, the SEC would be gone in a heartbeat. Put this national association's office right in the heart of America, like Kansas City or Oklahoma City with a commissioner like Bowlsby or Sankey who stays out of the limelight, and I think the SEC schools would at least sit at the table to hear it out.
I did say two leagues here BBB.
South:
Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, South Carolina
Kentucky, North Carolina (?),N.C. State, Tennessee, Virginia Tech, West Virginia
Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Texas A&M
Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech
That grouping could easily have it's own commissioner.
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