1. Buffalo

2. Ball State - Toledo

3. Kent State - Ohio - Eastern Michigan

4. The rest.

Tier 1

1. Buffalo

Tier 2

2. Toledo
3. Ball State

Tier 3

4. Kent State
5. Central Michigan
6. Miami-OH

Tier 4

7. Ohio
8. Northern Illinois
9. Akron
10. Eastern Michigan

Tier 5

11. Bowling Green
12. Western Michigan


At this point , here is how I see divisions shaping up

1. Buffalo 17-1
2. Kent State 10-8
3. Ohio 8-10
4. Miami-OH 8-10
5. Akron 7-11
6. Bowling Green 6-12

1. Toledo 12-6
2. Ball State 12-6
3. Central Michigan 9-9
4. Northern Illinois 8-10
5. Eastern Michigan 6-12
6. Western Michigan 5-13

Chances to win MAC tourney: Buffalo 81%, Toledo 8%, Ball State 6%, Kent State 2%, CMU 1% (Rest of teams < 1 percent)

Yeah I've seen Ball State play twice, both were losses. Toledo is ahead until they lose again.

Our upcoming game at Michigan has been rated PG-13 by the NCAA. Parental discretion is advised.

(12-13-2018 07:57 AM)Motown Bronco Wrote:  Our upcoming game at Michigan has been rated PG-13 by the NCAA. Parental discretion is advised.

12/22/18

Small changes ...

1. Buffalo

2. Toledo

3. Kent State

4. Ball State

TBD -- Akron, Central Michigan, Ohio


Doubt there is no argument for No. 1. ... Strong argument can be made for Kent as No. 2, but Toledo seems to be more loaded offensively. Ball State is in the mix and certainly capable of rising.

As usual, there is no way to judge CMU until league play ... Ohio started weak but is coming on strong. Akron still finding itself but solid.

Any objections ....

I think given Kent's 2 solid road victories over Vanderbilt and Oregon State and 1 road loss to Louisville- Kent jump over Toledo based on current body of work:

Buffalo
KSU
Toledo
Ball St

(12-24-2018 09:13 AM)BuckeyeFlyerFlash Wrote:  I think given Kent's 2 solid road victories over Vanderbilt and Oregon State and 1 road loss to Louisville- Kent jump over Toledo based on current body of work:

Buffalo
KSU
Toledo
Ball St

This is the listing that I like.

My Christmas rankings with projected final conference records. I see Ball State right now as the team that will need to be evaluated for a 2nd MAC NCAA bid.

1. Buffalo 17-1
2. Ball State 14-4
3. Toledo 12-6
4. Kent State 10-8
---------------------
5. Central Michigan 9-9
6. Miami-OH 8-10
7. Northern Illinois 8-10
8. Ohio 7-11
9. Akron 7-11
10. Eastern Michigan 6-12
11. Bowling Green 6-12
12. Western Michigan 4-14

East record 55-53
West record 53-55

Without commenting on how good Ball St. may or may not be, they have zero chance at an NCAA bid other than the same chance the rest of the conference (except UB) has—winning the MAC tournament. No quality wins at all. You’re measured by how good the teams are that you’ve beaten.

Again, this is not a comment on how good their conference season may be. They might be the second best team although that is a tough argument to make based on their non-conference performance. If your numbers are telling you they could get the second bid to the NCAA if they don’t run the table at the end, you need to adjust the numbers.

But Merry Christmas! I love the discussion!

(12-25-2018 07:04 AM)axeme Wrote:  Without commenting on how good Ball St. may or may not be, they have zero chance at an NCAA bid other than the same chance the rest of the conference (except UB) has—winning the MAC tournament. No quality wins at all. You’re measured by how good the teams are that you’ve beaten.

Again, this is not a comment on how good their conference season may be. They might be the second best team although that is a tough argument to make based on their non-conference performance. If your numbers are telling you they could get the second bid to the NCAA if they don’t run the table at the end, you need to adjust the numbers.

But Merry Christmas! I love the discussion!

I just dont see any other team in the MAC keeping their losses low enough outside of Ball State

axeme is correct. it is impossible for ball state to get an at large. they needed to win more of their big non-conf games. i do think they will be a contender in the league, but the only way they dance is by winning the conf tourney.

rankings are

1) Buffalo: Win the MAC, avoid ugly losses and they are a tourney team.

2) Kent St/Toledo: tough to separate these 2. Both did what they needed to non-conf. Kent went out and played some tough road games and won 2 out of 3. They didn't have a bad loss (Liberty is good) and they should open league play at 11-2. Toledo went out and played a pretty good 3 round tourney and won that. They have won more easily than Kent but haven't had as tough road games. The Toledo game vs Penn (NET #53) will be a good test. Penn is comparable to the good teams Kent beat. Realistically, each team is headed to the NIT with a good MAC season but no MAC tourney title. If either was to win the league and a few of their non-conf wins hold up (by those teams having real good years) they would get NCAA bubble consideration but would be far from a lock.

4) Ball St/CMU: Both teams have looked really good vs mid major competition. Ball St had some moments against top competition but lost all those games decisively. Both veteran teams with balance. MAC tourney is likely only path to major postseason play but each school looks poised for 20 plus wins and some big games in conference play.

6) Akron: The Zips haven't been able to beat good teams but they've been close. I don't know if they are really better than the teams below them, but they are more capable of beating teams above them as they have better size, athleticism and scorers.

7-11) BG/Ohio/Miami/Western/NIU: All these teams have been pretty good against average opponents and had some moments vs better comp when they looked good. Any of these teams could challenge for the upper tier of the MAC if they totally gel and build chemistry. Each has enough talent, but only enough if it is clicking. Likely 1 of these teams peaks and makes a run and ends up with a good record and a CIT/CBI postseason if they can't steal the MAC tourney.

12) EMU I thought would be good. they are not. Murphy is gonna have to carry a lot of this failure. The roster is pretty loaded but there is no chemistry. No plan on how to maximize talent and lots of guys playing below their potential. Quite possibly they will spoil one or two MAC team's hopes for post-season. Hopefully, your team and not mine.

KSU and Toledo did have a common opponent: Wright St.

KSU won by 7.
UT lost by 10.

Meaning? Ah, who knows.

(12-25-2018 04:22 PM)axeme Wrote:  KSU and Toledo did have a common opponent: Wright St.

KSU won by 7.
UT lost by 10.

Meaning? Ah, who knows.

Miami beat Wright State too, right?

It was a bad game. We shot horrible. Top 25 scoring teams with high percentages live and die by offense... We died that night.

Just no way right now Id feel comfortable ranking Kent ahead of Ball State. Ball State has played a much much much harder schedule than either Toledo or Kent

(12-25-2018 06:56 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Just no way right now Id feel comfortable ranking Kent ahead of Ball State. Ball State has played a much much much harder schedule than either Toledo or Kent

I think there is no argument, overall, BSU has played a tougher schedule. But at least for me, this season and historically, when Kent has had the chance to beat a P5 team they can compete with, they have done so.

Lots of MAC teams come close ... or get one (Notre Dame) in a good year. But even average Kent teams have beaten average P5 teams.

I think the more accurate question is ... would you rather play Ball State or play Kent? ... Ball State has more size and more talent. But ... I may be wrong, but ... I think most fans would probably rather see their team play BSU than KSU with anything on the line.

So you can be right RANKING Ball ahead of Kent ... I won't argue that. But who do you want to play?

(12-25-2018 07:41 PM)cleveland Wrote:  

(12-25-2018 06:56 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Just no way right now Id feel comfortable ranking Kent ahead of Ball State. Ball State has played a much much much harder schedule than either Toledo or Kent

I think there is no argument, overall, BSU has played a tougher schedule. But at least for me, this season and historically, when Kent has had the chance to beat a P5 team they can compete with, they have done so.

Lots of MAC teams come close ... or get one (Notre Dame) in a good year. But even average Kent teams have beaten average P5 teams.

I think the more accurate question is ... would you rather play Ball State or play Kent? ... Ball State has more size and more talent. But ... I may be wrong, but ... I think most fans would probably rather see their team play BSU than KSU with anything on the line.

So you can be right RANKING Ball ahead of Kent ... I won't argue that. But who do you want to play?

I think we fall into a trap of putting too much stock into wins over a "P5". While the committee probably drools over it, Ball State going into Loyola and absolutely throttling Loyola is just as impressive to me. Id want to play Kent State over Ball State, Ball State is just too efficient offensively. Kent has been mediocre against a lot of bad and mediocre teams. I think Ball State's game is going to transfer over to MAC play much better. Id argue right now Ball State should be ahead of Toledo. Toledo has not ventured outside of Savage much and played many bad teams.

This year’s Loyola team is a far cry from last year’s. They’ve played a tough schedule, but they’ve also lost to every good team. NET 121. It’s not going to a a real quality win as the season goes on since the MVC is a bit down this year and LUC seems likely to not be near the top team there. Just because they were Final 4 last year doesn’t mean anything this year.

And again, I really can’t tell how good Ball St. will be this year, I’m just looking at performance so far.

(12-25-2018 07:47 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(12-25-2018 07:41 PM)cleveland Wrote:  

(12-25-2018 06:56 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Just no way right now Id feel comfortable ranking Kent ahead of Ball State. Ball State has played a much much much harder schedule than either Toledo or Kent

I think there is no argument, overall, BSU has played a tougher schedule. But at least for me, this season and historically, when Kent has had the chance to beat a P5 team they can compete with, they have done so.

Lots of MAC teams come close ... or get one (Notre Dame) in a good year. But even average Kent teams have beaten average P5 teams.

I think the more accurate question is ... would you rather play Ball State or play Kent? ... Ball State has more size and more talent. But ... I may be wrong, but ... I think most fans would probably rather see their team play BSU than KSU with anything on the line.

So you can be right RANKING Ball ahead of Kent ... I won't argue that. But who do you want to play?

I think we fall into a trap of putting too much stock into wins over a "P5". While the committee probably drools over it, Ball State going into Loyola and absolutely throttling Loyola is just as impressive to me. Id want to play Kent State over Ball State, Ball State is just too efficient offensively. Kent has been mediocre against a lot of bad and mediocre teams. I think Ball State's game is going to transfer over to MAC play much better. Id argue right now Ball State should be ahead of Toledo. Toledo has not ventured outside of Savage much and played many bad teams.

Looking at the rosters I think most fans would rather play Kent ... BSU and Toledo have a lot of offense and size and BSU in particular has shown it can win quality games on the road ... but I would not discount P5 wins so casually when that is what catches the eye of the committee and casual fans ...

Look at it this way ... if Ball State/Toledo and Kent advance to the MAC Championship game, which team has the better chance at an at-large berth if it loses?

If Ball State is on the board with Vanderbilt and Oregon State for an at-large, which is the first team eliminated?

If Toledo is on the board, even with a homecourt win over Penn, vs. Vanderbilt and Oregon State, is that enough?

If Kent State is on the board with Vanderbilt and Oregon State for an at-large ... Kent has a compelling case w/two head-to-head road wins.

Had Ball State advanced to the MAC Tournament finals last year, with that Notre Dame win under their belt, it would have made folks at least take a second look. That was a win over a team from the No. 1 league in the country.

If Loyola-Chicago (an excellent team BTW) is BSU's top win, that's still from a league ranked behind the MAC.

As for the MAC race ... Ball State's game should translate, particularly in the MAC West where high-scoring offenses prevail. Have not looked at crossovers or MAC-E road games except for UB, so who knows ... Cardinals should get a MAC Tournament bye no matter what. Any team from the East other than Buffalo ... ??? ... a bye will be tough to get.

Every East team has UB twice ... that's two losses right there. That means 10-6 vs. everybody else to probably have a shot.

(12-25-2018 09:29 PM)cleveland Wrote:  

(12-25-2018 07:47 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(12-25-2018 07:41 PM)cleveland Wrote:  

(12-25-2018 06:56 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Just no way right now Id feel comfortable ranking Kent ahead of Ball State. Ball State has played a much much much harder schedule than either Toledo or Kent

I think there is no argument, overall, BSU has played a tougher schedule. But at least for me, this season and historically, when Kent has had the chance to beat a P5 team they can compete with, they have done so.

Lots of MAC teams come close ... or get one (Notre Dame) in a good year. But even average Kent teams have beaten average P5 teams.

I think the more accurate question is ... would you rather play Ball State or play Kent? ... Ball State has more size and more talent. But ... I may be wrong, but ... I think most fans would probably rather see their team play BSU than KSU with anything on the line.

So you can be right RANKING Ball ahead of Kent ... I won't argue that. But who do you want to play?

I think we fall into a trap of putting too much stock into wins over a "P5". While the committee probably drools over it, Ball State going into Loyola and absolutely throttling Loyola is just as impressive to me. Id want to play Kent State over Ball State, Ball State is just too efficient offensively. Kent has been mediocre against a lot of bad and mediocre teams. I think Ball State's game is going to transfer over to MAC play much better. Id argue right now Ball State should be ahead of Toledo. Toledo has not ventured outside of Savage much and played many bad teams.

Looking at the rosters I think most fans would rather play Kent ... BSU and Toledo have a lot of offense and size and BSU in particular has shown it can win quality games on the road ... but I would not discount P5 wins so casually when that is what catches the eye of the committee and casual fans ...

Look at it this way ... if Ball State/Toledo and Kent advance to the MAC Championship game, which team has the better chance at an at-large berth if it loses?

If Ball State is on the board with Vanderbilt and Oregon State for an at-large, which is the first team eliminated?

If Toledo is on the board, even with a homecourt win over Penn, vs. Vanderbilt and Oregon State, is that enough?

If Kent State is on the board with Vanderbilt and Oregon State for an at-large ... Kent has a compelling case w/two head-to-head road wins.

Had Ball State advanced to the MAC Tournament finals last year, with that Notre Dame win under their belt, it would have made folks at least take a second look. That was a win over a team from the No. 1 league in the country.

If Loyola-Chicago (an excellent team BTW) is BSU's top win, that's still from a league ranked behind the MAC.

As for the MAC race ... Ball State's game should translate, particularly in the MAC West where high-scoring offenses prevail. Have not looked at crossovers or MAC-E road games except for UB, so who knows ... Cardinals should get a MAC Tournament bye no matter what. Any team from the East other than Buffalo ... ??? ... a bye will be tough to get.

Every East team has UB twice ... that's two losses right there. That means 10-6 vs. everybody else to probably have a shot.

I just think the gap between Kent State and Ball State is bigger than people realize right now. I agree the wins against P5's open people's eyes more, but an 18 game conference season will have enough separation between Kent and BSU, that a Kent/BSU comparison won't happen. I just see Kent as a solid notch below BSU right now.

(12-26-2018 12:33 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(12-25-2018 09:29 PM)cleveland Wrote:  

(12-25-2018 07:47 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(12-25-2018 07:41 PM)cleveland Wrote:  

(12-25-2018 06:56 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Just no way right now Id feel comfortable ranking Kent ahead of Ball State. Ball State has played a much much much harder schedule than either Toledo or Kent

I think there is no argument, overall, BSU has played a tougher schedule. But at least for me, this season and historically, when Kent has had the chance to beat a P5 team they can compete with, they have done so.

Lots of MAC teams come close ... or get one (Notre Dame) in a good year. But even average Kent teams have beaten average P5 teams.

I think the more accurate question is ... would you rather play Ball State or play Kent? ... Ball State has more size and more talent. But ... I may be wrong, but ... I think most fans would probably rather see their team play BSU than KSU with anything on the line.

So you can be right RANKING Ball ahead of Kent ... I won't argue that. But who do you want to play?

I think we fall into a trap of putting too much stock into wins over a "P5". While the committee probably drools over it, Ball State going into Loyola and absolutely throttling Loyola is just as impressive to me. Id want to play Kent State over Ball State, Ball State is just too efficient offensively. Kent has been mediocre against a lot of bad and mediocre teams. I think Ball State's game is going to transfer over to MAC play much better. Id argue right now Ball State should be ahead of Toledo. Toledo has not ventured outside of Savage much and played many bad teams.

Looking at the rosters I think most fans would rather play Kent ... BSU and Toledo have a lot of offense and size and BSU in particular has shown it can win quality games on the road ... but I would not discount P5 wins so casually when that is what catches the eye of the committee and casual fans ...

Look at it this way ... if Ball State/Toledo and Kent advance to the MAC Championship game, which team has the better chance at an at-large berth if it loses?

If Ball State is on the board with Vanderbilt and Oregon State for an at-large, which is the first team eliminated?

If Toledo is on the board, even with a homecourt win over Penn, vs. Vanderbilt and Oregon State, is that enough?

If Kent State is on the board with Vanderbilt and Oregon State for an at-large ... Kent has a compelling case w/two head-to-head road wins.

Had Ball State advanced to the MAC Tournament finals last year, with that Notre Dame win under their belt, it would have made folks at least take a second look. That was a win over a team from the No. 1 league in the country.

If Loyola-Chicago (an excellent team BTW) is BSU's top win, that's still from a league ranked behind the MAC.

As for the MAC race ... Ball State's game should translate, particularly in the MAC West where high-scoring offenses prevail. Have not looked at crossovers or MAC-E road games except for UB, so who knows ... Cardinals should get a MAC Tournament bye no matter what. Any team from the East other than Buffalo ... ??? ... a bye will be tough to get.

Every East team has UB twice ... that's two losses right there. That means 10-6 vs. everybody else to probably have a shot.

I just think the gap between Kent State and Ball State is bigger than people realize right now. I agree the wins against P5's open people's eyes more, but an 18 game conference season will have enough separation between Kent and BSU, that a Kent/BSU comparison won't happen. I just see Kent as a solid notch below BSU right now.

The computer agrees .... It's UB, Toledo, Ball State.

https://theathletic.com/734048/2018/12/2...nce-races/