Quote:UCF is the ultimate one game team. They will always get up for the biggest game when P5ers are likely to overlook them.
I don't think most P5s over-look them, though. Half the P5 teams won't overlook a G5 conference contender like NIU, UCF, Memphis, Houston, SDSU, Boise, etc when they just had a great year + are expected to have a good year said year.
Also, when you're in the MW or AAC -- a very large % of the Top Half of P5 teams aren't going to overlook their consistent big-name teams who are/expected to have an Access Bowl run. No more than overlooking 8-4 teams in their own conference they 'should' (knock on wood) beat, even with high confidence.
Quote:UCF I believe from a talent perspective is equivalent to an 8-4 type P5 team but on a schedule without Alabama/Clemson level opponents is able to go undefeated.
An 8-4 P5 team with a tough schedule & setup, yes. But not all P5s have the same SoS though, which makes that a bit tricky. With UCF's new replacement QB still having questions unanswered, I would put them on the level right now of an 8-4 P5 team who didn't have a tough schedule. If they had their original QB -- I'd say a 9-3 P5 team with a decently tough schedule. But if their QB shines thru in their bowl game -- then I'd say they ended up on-par with how they were with the original QB.
The complaint about UCF not being in the Top 4 is not much different than a scenario with the B12 without a conference championship game, who had an easy-as-hell OOC schedule while it not being the year of the B12 by any means. An undefeated ND+Alabama+Clemson getting in, plus a 1L Ohio State or USC would be understandable.
If UCF had a tougher SoS this year with a Big P5 Win, they'd still come up short. If UCF did so, while their weaker wins were much Stronger -- then I'd say it'd push for an expanded playoff. Problem is, this is Not the year that it pushes for one. It just makes one think about it -- and that thinking will disappear from those up there in the NCAA if UCF loses their bowl.
I like the idea of all Conf Champs having an opportunity to be included in a playoff. It'd make the Top seeds have an easy into game.
Problem is, people aren't going to travel to all these neutral-site bowls. It'd have to be home-field advantage places.
Another problem is, that's 10 teams + 1 potential (ND/Army/UMass/Liberty) by high-enough-rank. Which means there'd be 1-2 extra teams coming in. 12-team playoff wouldn't be that bad, but instead of the Current 12 NY-Bowl teams, you'd instead have about 4 "undeserving" of it (NIU, UAB, App State, and #22 Fresno), not being near the Top 12.
So I think it'd be Silly to expect all-conf winners to make it to a real Playoff when it comes about. All P5 winners? Yeah. All G5s? No, pipe dream.
Which is why at best, it'd be 12, not 8 -- just changing the NY Bowls into a 12-team playoff, which always includes a Top G5 winner. Or if going to 8, at the cost of 50% less teams being in the spotlight, they'd have to push to include a G5 Conf winner to be more allowing (Top 16) and have a stipulation on a P5 winner having to have to be Top 16 to get an auto-bid as well.