Can't really answer the question, but I do think 2005 is at least a baseline to work from. That's the year Miami was clearly snubbed as an at-large even though it won the league title but lost in the MAC Tournament.

The MAC that year was a Top 11 RPI league ... Miami had an RPI at the end of the season of No. 40.

And there were six MAC teams ranked in the RPI 100.

At first blush Miami winning the MAC with a 12-6 record would give cause for concern. But remember, five of the six teams in the MAC EAst that season won 19 games or more.

Five of those MAC East teams were ranked in the Top 100, three of them inside the Top 50 (Miami 40, Buffalo 46, OU 48) and all five inside the Top 70 (Kent St. 62, Akron 70). That's eight Top 70 RPI games alone within the conference. Miami had a SOS that year at No. 79. Kent was at No. 74, Ohio checked in at No. 83, Buffalo 118 and Akron 122.

Miami's only 'bad' MAC loss was at Marshall (RPI 235) on Senior Night for The Herd. Even losing at Bowling Green (RPI 107) was no disgrace.

Miami beat Purdue, beat Xavier and beat Wichita State in the Bracket Buster that season yet was still denied a bid. And none of those three teams made the 2005 NCAA Tournament.

That is a lot of moving parts, yet it is the best measuring stick for any MAC team looking to get an at-large bid. Even when the league props a team up as it did in 2005, that at-large bid for the MAC remains pretty elusive.

Well, any mid major at-large is dicey. The committee will always favor schools that beat teams clearly making the field (even if they have a lot of losses too) and MAC schools play so few tourney teams that they need to be great in those games. A team that is 4 and 10 vs NCAA teams will get in ahead of a team that is 1-2 vs those opponents. RPI top 100 doesn't usually add up. If you are a mid major with a lot of wins over RPI 51-100 teams it usually won't get you in. THis year the RPI was been ditched anyways for the new BPI which looking at it right now has W Virginia at 14 and Buffalo at 48.

The only MAC school likely to build a non-conf NCAA resume is Buffalo. Now, EMU, Ball St, Akron and a couple other teams had the schedule to make a statement but none have done so other than Buffalo. So, The Bulls need to finish non-conf strong and win or come in a strong second in the MAC and no win the MAC tourney to get an at-large. They have Syracuse and Marquette on the road and need to at least split those two games. They also have a few more good mid majors mostly on the road/neutral. The things they have going for them is national stature coming off the Arizona NCAA blowout and keeping momentum w the W VA win and the national ranking. Secondly, they have the opportunity to build a resume of road wins. Still, they can't falter much in the MAC and get a bid. Remember Ball St beat Kansas and UCLA - both in the top 5 in Maui back in the early 2000s, but were up and down in the MAC which was strong that year and did not get a bid with 22 wins and went NIT where they won 3 games to prove their worth.

Toledo simply does not have the schedule to get a bid outside of 29 or 30 wins. They play some good mid majors but would need to basically win out their non-conf at 12-1 and win/tie the MAC title to get consideration. A few years back the rockets went 12-1 non-conf and tied for the MAC title at 15-3, I think, lost the MAC tourney title game and got a poor seed in the NIT.

So, the path is essentially for Buffalo to have a super season but lose in the conf tourney. It would help if the MAC has overall good play non-conf and multiple top 100 type teams, but that is really secondary. I'd like to suggest a path for a 2nd or 3rd MAC team to be considered, but the reality is we all need to be big Bulls fans for every game except the one when they play our team. If UB can get through their non-conf gauntlet with 1 (or maybe even 2) loss, and wins the MAC they should be in the tourney. But you need someone to beat them in Cleveland still...

UB also needs the WVU win to be a strong one. Huggins will probably have them stronger by the end of the season, but if they have a blah season (already another loss to WKU) and finish out of the top 50 or so, that win won’t help UB at all and they would probably need to beat both Syracuse and Marquette to make up for it. And then hope both of them have tourney worthy seasons. It’s a tough road and a lot of it is out of the Bulls hands. Or is it hooves?

No MAC team other than Buffalo will have the credentials for at large. Would need Buffalo to get massively upset in the tourney and have the 2 or 3 seed win the tourney.

(11-23-2018 12:33 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  No MAC team other than Buffalo will have the credentials for at large. Would need Buffalo to get massively upset in the tourney and have the 2 or 3 seed win the tourney.

Idealy, but really anyone can knock them off if they are ranked at the time of losing.

(11-22-2018 10:51 PM)axeme Wrote:  UB also needs the WVU win to be a strong one. Huggins will probably have them stronger by the end of the season, but if they have a blah season (already another loss to WKU) and finish out of the top 50 or so, that win won’t help UB at all and they would probably need to beat both Syracuse and Marquette to make up for it. And then hope both of them have tourney worthy seasons. It’s a tough road and a lot of it is out of the Bulls hands. Or is it hooves?

right, a few years ago Monmouth went on the road and beat Georgetown, UCLA and some other name school i can't remember. Then, they won their league (but lost in conf tourney). It was a historic season for them, but they didn't get a bid cause those marquee wins were all over teams that had down years and weren't in the tourney.

Buffalo needs to win most of these tough road games and have most of those teams in the tourney or at least on the bubble for it to add up.

Monmouth beat Notre Dame, UCLA, Georgetown, USC, & Rutgers and was denied a bid.

We’ve seen mid-majors ranked top 25 at the end of the season (Murray St, Saint Mary’s) left out.

I have my suspicions that RPI was ditched for the nontransparent NET specifically to handcuff mid-majors.

Buffalo will be the MAC’s only hope - and one of only 4-5 mid-majors with a shot.

As long as Buffalo can limit their regular season losses to 5, they should be good to go with the WVU win under their belt.

But we’ve seen a 5L Saint Mary’s with a win AT Gonzaga snubbed, so even that’s not locked.

St. Mary’s was ranked for a good portion of the 07-08 season but fell out of the rankings when KSU beat them on their floor in the BracketBuster. They still wound up with an at large. The next year ‘09, they had a really good team until Paddy Mills got injured. He came back late in the season, but they had a stretch in late January-early February where they lost four out of five, plus they lost to Gonzaga three times that season.

In ‘11, they lost another BracketBuster game and also to the last place team in the WCC in February and then again to Gonzaga in their confidence tourney. I remember that season specifically because KSU beat them again on their floor in the first round of the NIT. I don’t think any Gaels team that was ranked got snubbed, but maybe I ‘m forgetting something. They’ve gotten several at-large bids. What year are you thinking of?

Saint Mary’s was ranked 20th last year on Selection Sunday.
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/sch...edule.html

(11-24-2018 08:17 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  Saint Mary’s was ranked 20th last year on Selection Sunday.
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/sch...edule.html

Hey, I can’t be expected to remember things that recent.


That was a snub.

(11-23-2018 12:33 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  No MAC team other than Buffalo will have the credentials for at large. Would need Buffalo to get massively upset in the tourney and have the 2 or 3 seed win the tourney.

Buffalo is taking advantage of the fact the MAC unlike the AAC doesn't have an established Top 20 program in it so they are trying to be one of those.

Its a good development for the MAC when a school with upside is winning. BG walking off with MAC football championships retards the potential.

Last time that happened was in the late 90s -- with WMU going after bowing out early in the MAC Tourney. WMU had 20 wins -- which is basically the equivalent of 26W (and not playing D2/D3 teams). WMU beat ranked Michigan that year.

So basically -- get about 26 wins regular season, and beat a ranked P6 team while winning your division, but losing in the MAC Tourney, and you can very possibly make it anyway.

If Buffalo enters the MAC just getting votes to be ranked -- and wins the East, but loses in the MAC Tourney to the 2nd best MAC Team -- we'll have 2 teams in.

(11-24-2018 07:19 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  If Buffalo enters the MAC just getting votes to be ranked -- and wins the East, but loses in the MAC Tourney to the 2nd best MAC Team -- we'll have 2 teams in.

This is the way it once was and should be, but isn’t anymore.

Just last year, a top-20 team who won at Gonzaga was left out. Two years ago, a 17-1 MVC team was excluded. Three years ago, a team with wins over Notre Dame/USC/UCLA/Georgetown was snubbed. Four years ago, a top-25 team on a 25-game win streak before losing by 1 at the buzzer was discounted.

The bar is much higher for mid-majors now. Receiving votes or a regular season title holds no value to them anymore. It’s a system designed for and by P6 schools - just look how P6 schools made up 5/10 committee members the past 4 years.

You’re auditioning in front of a panel who wants to disclude you. It’ll take 27-6.

A mid-major at-large is a tough nut to crack and fortunately Buffalo’s team
and OOC schedule should be good enough to do the trick.

I am just happy to see the MAC have a team in the Top 25.

That really helps the image of the conference for recruiting.

Is there a difference between 1 team appearing in 2 NCAA games or 2 teams appearing in 1 NCAA game a piece, not really.

(11-24-2018 07:19 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  If Buffalo enters the MAC just getting votes to be ranked -- and wins the East, but loses in the MAC Tourney to the 2nd best MAC Team -- we'll have 2 teams in.

I think its going to take a second NCAA worthy team to step up. Not for this season but if Akron can take off under Groce and become a second Top 25 team then you are on to something.

MAC tournament comes around and Ball St gets super hot for the tourney...all of the sudden the MAC has 3 teams in the NCAA tournament.

The goal/target isn't two bids its becoming a 3 bid conference like the A10 is by slipping a 3rd team in on the backs of quality wins over a couple of tournament worthy programs. That is about the best the MAC can do even with stud coaches at every school.

Gonna be tough to match the A10s year to year consistency. This year the MAC is really strong. It's kind of a perfect storm with a bunch of good veteran teams (UB, Toledo, Kent, Ball, EMU), a couple more teams that had been weak rebuilding quicker than expected (Akron, CMU) and some decent teams taking shape (BG, Miami) even the teams who appear to be the weakest in the league are capable of playing decent basketball and have some vets (Ohio, WMU, NIU).

Next year most of the strong teams will be rebuilding to some degree. Buffalo will be down (but could still be good by the end of the year as they return their excellent pg and add in a bunch of JUCOs and veteran transfers that will cushion the rebuild). Toledo loses some key guys and will return enough talent to be good but likely not as good. EMU loses a ton. Kent loses a lot. BG and WMU lose good big men who anchor their team. Ball St loses a ton, etc... Unlikely that the MAC has a top 50 type team in 2019-20 unless something unexpected happens (surprisingly good recruit, great chemistry on a squad, unexpected grad transfer in).

The fun thing is this year there is plenty to wonder about, which is all we can really do. Unfortunately, the expansion of the field to 68 hasn't really helped the smaller profile conferences. First, the weakest leagues now have to do the 16th seed play-in games. Secondly, the first four 12 seed Dayton games have been largely featuring power schools. I mean MTSU got a shot a few years ago and when the change first happened Whichita and maybe? George Mason got in there, but mostly the committee hasn't used that format to feature an extra 1 or 2 mid majors.

The only possibility of changing the selection process is the success of Loyola last year and the reality of how many non power conf teams are winning over P5 type schools (many of whom typically in the tourney selection pool) this year. I can't name them all but Furman beat 2 final four teams, Frickin Houston Baptist won at an ACC school. Kent wins at undefeated Vandy. UB over W VA. Northeastern beats up Alabama. UC Irvine won at Texas AM. Lipscomb won at TCU. Hawaii beat Utah neutral court. Texas Southern won at Baylor. Stony brook won at S Caro. Charlotte won at Ok St. Bradley beat Penn St. Georgia Souther beat Georgia by 24 on a neutral court. The West Coast Conf still has 3 undefeated teams (not including St Marys) with LMU 7-0 incl a dominant win over Georgetown on a neutral court and Gonzaga looks like the best team in the country. The MWC has a top 10 team in Nevada and a lot of depth. And there's a bunch of mid majors with excellent records who haven't played P5 type schools yet. You can see that the gap between name-mid-low major leagues is diminshed at least this year and there are gonna be a bunch of schools from lower profile leagues with 20 plus wins who went out and played and beat good P5 schools on the road/neutral non-conf saying "look at our resume". BTW the BPI "resume" ranking has Buffalo currently as a 2 seed and Toledo as a 13 with Kent State in the top 100 and positioned for an NIT at large. Of course, those are just based on games so far and things can change but the point is the MAC is positioned to be in a lot of the post season conversations which will at least keep this board interesting.

May not qualify as Fly the Flag Day, but MAC men have another strong day w NIU getting a 20 point road win at Oakland in possibly their best game in years. 66% FG, 23 assists/8 turnovers and Levi bradley with the line of the year 13-13 on field goals, 4-4 on threes and 30 points w only 1 turnover and no missed shots. Plus, BG gets a 10 point win in a pick em game w Drexel while CMU moves to 5-1 w easy small college home win.

Not all in the loop w MAC women but last year's sweet 16 teams doing well as Buffalo is undefeated and CMU is 6-1 with a win at Virginia who went to the tourney last yr.

The NET rankings are out. For those not aware this is suppose to be the universal metric the selection committee will be using this year. These rankings don't reflect yesterdays games.

22 - Buffalo
94 - Kent St
109 - Toledo
114 - Ball St
135 - Miami
142 - NIU
150 - Akron
160 - WMU
174 - BGSU
177 - Ohio
180 - CMU
214 - EMU

(11-29-2018 09:10 AM)kreed5120 Wrote:  The NET rankings are out. For those not aware this is suppose to be the universal metric the selection committee will be using this year. These rankings don't reflect yesterdays games.

22 - Buffalo
94 - Kent St
109 - Toledo
114 - Ball St
135 - Miami
142 - NIU
150 - Akron
160 - WMU
174 - BGSU
177 - Ohio
180 - CMU
214 - EMU

those are pretty reasonable rankings based on results so far with the exception of CMU probably deserving a little better ranking considering they only have 1 loss and it was by 2 points to a decent team. That said we'll see more clearly where they stand after the TCU game.

(11-25-2018 05:42 PM)pono Wrote:  Not all in the loop w MAC women but last year's sweet 16 teams doing well as Buffalo is undefeated and CMU is 6-1 with a win at Virginia who went to the tourney last yr.

Almost.. the UB women are 4-1, looking good with their only loss at #3 ranked Oregon by 20. They were right in it for 3 quarters though.