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How doe the MAC get 2 NCAA bids ...
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MaddDawgz02 Offline
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Post: #41
RE: How doe the MAC get 2 NCAA bids ...
(12-09-2018 09:26 PM)kreed5120 Wrote:  
(12-09-2018 09:14 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(12-09-2018 01:28 PM)kreed5120 Wrote:  I don't see any realistic path for two bids outside of Buffalo losing the MAC tourney. What I feel is highly possible is the MAC can have 1-2 at-large bids for the NIT if Buffalo does win the tournament.
It bears pointing out that this would represent progress ... for a while now the MAC has not been in a position to land NIT at-large bids, never mind NCAA at-large bids. It's very early days still, but at the moment the MAC is in a position to get it's regular season champion into the Tourney at a much more attractive seeding than has been the case in the past decade, a second team well placed for an NIT at-large bid, and a third team that is not very far from the likely NIT bubble, given the number of NIT auto-bids that typically take place.
I fully agree.

Only if the champ is Buffalo. Any other champ will get the token 12 to 14 seed.
12-09-2018 10:48 PM
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BruceMcF Offline
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Post: #42
RE: How doe the MAC get 2 NCAA bids ...
(12-09-2018 10:48 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  
(12-09-2018 09:26 PM)kreed5120 Wrote:  
(12-09-2018 09:14 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(12-09-2018 01:28 PM)kreed5120 Wrote:  I don't see any realistic path for two bids outside of Buffalo losing the MAC tourney. What I feel is highly possible is the MAC can have 1-2 at-large bids for the NIT if Buffalo does win the tournament.

It bears pointing out that this would represent progress ... for a while now the MAC has not been in a position to land NIT at-large bids, never mind NCAA at-large bids. It's very early days still, but at the moment the MAC is in a position to get it's regular season champion into the Tourney at a much more attractive seeding than has been the case in the past decade, a second team well placed for an NIT at-large bid, and a third team that is not very far from the likely NIT bubble, given the number of NIT auto-bids that typically take place.
I fully agree.

Only if the champ is Buffalo. Any other champ will get the token 12 to 14 seed.

Yes, that's what the words "in a position to" means for that part of it.

If the Golden Flashes don't win the Conference Tournament, I'm not about to be cheering against UB in the Conference Tournament "so we can get two bids". One team making a Tourney run is more benefit to the conference than two one-and-dones.
12-10-2018 05:14 AM
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kreed5120 Offline
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Post: #43
RE: How doe the MAC get 2 NCAA bids ...
(12-10-2018 05:14 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(12-09-2018 10:48 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  
(12-09-2018 09:26 PM)kreed5120 Wrote:  
(12-09-2018 09:14 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(12-09-2018 01:28 PM)kreed5120 Wrote:  I don't see any realistic path for two bids outside of Buffalo losing the MAC tourney. What I feel is highly possible is the MAC can have 1-2 at-large bids for the NIT if Buffalo does win the tournament.

It bears pointing out that this would represent progress ... for a while now the MAC has not been in a position to land NIT at-large bids, never mind NCAA at-large bids. It's very early days still, but at the moment the MAC is in a position to get it's regular season champion into the Tourney at a much more attractive seeding than has been the case in the past decade, a second team well placed for an NIT at-large bid, and a third team that is not very far from the likely NIT bubble, given the number of NIT auto-bids that typically take place.
I fully agree.

Only if the champ is Buffalo. Any other champ will get the token 12 to 14 seed.

Yes, that's what the words "in a position to" means for that part of it.

If the Golden Flashes don't win the Conference Tournament, I'm not about to be cheering against UB in the Conference Tournament "so we can get two bids". One team making a Tourney run is more benefit to the conference than two one-and-dones.

Why would Buffalo going on a run in the tourney and the MAC getting 2 teams in the tourney be mutually exclusive events?

Edit: In fact, it would seem to me the more teams that we get in the tournament the better our odds are to have one of those teams make it to the Sweet 16.
(This post was last modified: 12-10-2018 11:10 AM by kreed5120.)
12-10-2018 08:27 AM
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george14 Offline
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Post: #44
RE: How doe the MAC get 2 NCAA bids ...
Unfortunately record doesn't mean anything. Teams like Toledo, Kent, and CMU will probably finish the season with close to 20 wins, but not any notable wins really. Like others have said, I think the only way the MAC gets 2 bids is if Buffalo dominates and loses in the MAC tourney with a record of 27-4 at the worst. It's too hard for a mid major to get 2 bids. We've seen too many screwjobs with mid majors being ranked or close to it, but still not getting an invite.
(This post was last modified: 12-10-2018 12:52 PM by george14.)
12-10-2018 12:52 PM
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UofToledoFans Offline
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Post: #45
RE: How doe the MAC get 2 NCAA bids ...
(12-10-2018 12:52 PM)george14 Wrote:  Unfortunately record doesn't mean anything. Teams like Toledo, Kent, and CMU will probably finish the season with close to 20 wins, but not any notable wins really. Like others have said, I think the only way the MAC gets 2 bids is if Buffalo dominates and loses in the MAC tourney with a record of 27-4 at the worst. It's too hard for a mid major to get 2 bids. We've seen too many screwjobs with mid majors being ranked or close to it, but still not getting an invite.

Close to 20 wins? We are 9-1 with 3 OOC games left and 18 conference games, plus the MAC tourney... Before the MACC if we are 20-11 or (11-10 until Cleveland,) I will be pissed off.
12-11-2018 04:38 PM
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Rocket75 Offline
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Post: #46
RE: How doe the MAC get 2 NCAA bids ...
Toledo plays Penn at home on December 29th. Penn just beat Villanova. If Toledo can beat Penn and win one game v Buffalo, they have a chance at getting a bid even if Buffalo wins the conference tournament. Those are a couple of big IFS but at least they would then have a legitimate chance.
12-12-2018 09:02 AM
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axeme Offline
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Post: #47
RE: How doe the MAC get 2 NCAA bids ...
(12-12-2018 09:02 AM)Rocket75 Wrote:  Toledo plays Penn at home on December 29th. Penn just beat Villanova. If Toledo can beat Penn and win one game v Buffalo, they have a chance at getting a bid even if Buffalo wins the conference tournament. Those are a couple of big IFS but at least they would then have a legitimate chance.

Dependent upon Penn entering Selection Sunday as a (roughly) top 50 team. If Penn loses 8-10 games this season, beating them won’t mean much.
12-12-2018 09:48 AM
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kreed5120 Offline
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Post: #48
RE: How doe the MAC get 2 NCAA bids ...
(12-12-2018 09:02 AM)Rocket75 Wrote:  Toledo plays Penn at home on December 29th. Penn just beat Villanova. If Toledo can beat Penn and win one game v Buffalo, they have a chance at getting a bid even if Buffalo wins the conference tournament. Those are a couple of big IFS but at least they would then have a legitimate chance.

Penn is 102 in NET rankings and 108 in Kenpom. It's a decent complimentary piece to a resume, but not a win you can hang your resume on. If Toledo wanted a chance at an at-large, they needed a stronger OOC schedule. Their schedule looks comparable to those 26-27 win Akron teams that weren't even remotely on the bubble come selection Sunday.
(This post was last modified: 12-12-2018 11:56 AM by kreed5120.)
12-12-2018 11:55 AM
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BruceMcF Offline
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Post: #49
RE: How doe the MAC get 2 NCAA bids ...
(12-10-2018 08:27 AM)kreed5120 Wrote:  Why would Buffalo going on a run in the tourney and the MAC getting 2 teams in the tourney be mutually exclusive events?

Edit: In fact, it would seem to me the more teams that we get in the tournament the better our odds are to have one of those teams make it to the Sweet 16.
If there are two teams and both are seeded where each one has reasonable hopes of advancing, then yes.

But if we were in that position, the question of how the MAC could get 2 into the Tourney would not be a question ... if we had two teams in a position to both get reasonable seeds, the question would be how we could get 3 into the Tourney.
12-13-2018 08:23 AM
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kreed5120 Offline
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Post: #50
RE: How doe the MAC get 2 NCAA bids ...
(12-13-2018 08:23 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(12-10-2018 08:27 AM)kreed5120 Wrote:  Why would Buffalo going on a run in the tourney and the MAC getting 2 teams in the tourney be mutually exclusive events?

Edit: In fact, it would seem to me the more teams that we get in the tournament the better our odds are to have one of those teams make it to the Sweet 16.
If there are two teams and both are seeded where each one has reasonable hopes of advancing, then yes.

But if we were in that position, the question of how the MAC could get 2 into the Tourney would not be a question ... if we had two teams in a position to both get reasonable seeds, the question would be how we could get 3 into the Tourney.

Buffalo is currently projected as a 5th seed. 1 loss isn't going to make them drop from 5th to last 4 in. The 2nd MAC team could easily be a 13 seed. Last year 2 13 seeds won their 1st round game, including Buffalo so it's not like that 2nd team wouldn't have a punchers chance.
(This post was last modified: 12-13-2018 09:53 AM by kreed5120.)
12-13-2018 09:51 AM
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UofToledoFans Offline
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Post: #51
RE: How doe the MAC get 2 NCAA bids ...
(12-13-2018 09:51 AM)kreed5120 Wrote:  
(12-13-2018 08:23 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(12-10-2018 08:27 AM)kreed5120 Wrote:  Why would Buffalo going on a run in the tourney and the MAC getting 2 teams in the tourney be mutually exclusive events?

Edit: In fact, it would seem to me the more teams that we get in the tournament the better our odds are to have one of those teams make it to the Sweet 16.
If there are two teams and both are seeded where each one has reasonable hopes of advancing, then yes.

But if we were in that position, the question of how the MAC could get 2 into the Tourney would not be a question ... if we had two teams in a position to both get reasonable seeds, the question would be how we could get 3 into the Tourney.

Buffalo is currently projected as a 5th seed. 1 loss isn't going to make them drop from 5th to last 4 in. The 2nd MAC team could easily be a 13 seed. Last year 2 13 seeds won their 1st round game, including Buffalo so it's not like that 2nd team wouldn't have a punchers chance.

ESPN still has UB as a 12 seed.... We've seen St Mary's get left out as a top25 team, and we have seen some seeding go haywire for SDSU and Nevada teams in years past. Nothing is a sure thing for UB unless they win the league. Although wins in the next 2 weeks can give them some breathing room.
12-13-2018 12:03 PM
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axeme Offline
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Post: #52
RE: How doe the MAC get 2 NCAA bids ...
(12-13-2018 12:03 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  
(12-13-2018 09:51 AM)kreed5120 Wrote:  
(12-13-2018 08:23 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(12-10-2018 08:27 AM)kreed5120 Wrote:  Why would Buffalo going on a run in the tourney and the MAC getting 2 teams in the tourney be mutually exclusive events?

Edit: In fact, it would seem to me the more teams that we get in the tournament the better our odds are to have one of those teams make it to the Sweet 16.
If there are two teams and both are seeded where each one has reasonable hopes of advancing, then yes.

But if we were in that position, the question of how the MAC could get 2 into the Tourney would not be a question ... if we had two teams in a position to both get reasonable seeds, the question would be how we could get 3 into the Tourney.

Buffalo is currently projected as a 5th seed. 1 loss isn't going to make them drop from 5th to last 4 in. The 2nd MAC team could easily be a 13 seed. Last year 2 13 seeds won their 1st round game, including Buffalo so it's not like that 2nd team wouldn't have a punchers chance.

ESPN still has UB as a 12 seed.... We've seen St Mary's get left out as a top25 team, and we have seen some seeding go haywire for SDSU and Nevada teams in years past. Nothing is a sure thing for UB unless they win the league. Although wins in the next 2 weeks can give them some breathing room.

ESPN has UB as a 5 seed.

ESPN Bracketology
12-13-2018 12:37 PM
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MaddDawgz02 Offline
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Post: #53
RE: How doe the MAC get 2 NCAA bids ...
(12-13-2018 12:37 PM)axeme Wrote:  
(12-13-2018 12:03 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  
(12-13-2018 09:51 AM)kreed5120 Wrote:  
(12-13-2018 08:23 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(12-10-2018 08:27 AM)kreed5120 Wrote:  Why would Buffalo going on a run in the tourney and the MAC getting 2 teams in the tourney be mutually exclusive events?

Edit: In fact, it would seem to me the more teams that we get in the tournament the better our odds are to have one of those teams make it to the Sweet 16.
If there are two teams and both are seeded where each one has reasonable hopes of advancing, then yes.

But if we were in that position, the question of how the MAC could get 2 into the Tourney would not be a question ... if we had two teams in a position to both get reasonable seeds, the question would be how we could get 3 into the Tourney.

Buffalo is currently projected as a 5th seed. 1 loss isn't going to make them drop from 5th to last 4 in. The 2nd MAC team could easily be a 13 seed. Last year 2 13 seeds won their 1st round game, including Buffalo so it's not like that 2nd team wouldn't have a punchers chance.

ESPN still has UB as a 12 seed.... We've seen St Mary's get left out as a top25 team, and we have seen some seeding go haywire for SDSU and Nevada teams in years past. Nothing is a sure thing for UB unless they win the league. Although wins in the next 2 weeks can give them some breathing room.

ESPN has UB as a 5 seed.

ESPN Bracketology

I think that a reasonable projection , if you look at analytics of teams in that 4 to 5 position last years tourney , Bulls are right there
12-13-2018 09:15 PM
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pono Offline
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Post: #54
RE: How doe the MAC get 2 NCAA bids ...
much of Buffalo's seed will come down to their 2 road games next week at syracuse and marquette. both those teams project as fairly high seeds in the tourney and UB already has some good road/neutral wins. if they can add another their non-conf performance will be rock solid. with the MAC moving into the top 10 conferences they won't have to be perfect in league, just very good, like 15-3 or 14-4. the way they handled arizona last year will be tough for the committee to overlook as they discuss UB. still, it's a long season a lot can still happen.
12-14-2018 04:11 AM
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IWokeUpLikeThis Offline
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Post: #55
RE: How doe the MAC get 2 NCAA bids ...
Given the exclusion of a couple top 25 mid major’s in recent years and a top 10 KenPom team relegated to the First Four, the realistic take is to be very pessimistic regarding mid-major at-large’s.

However, if Buffalo merely splits this Syrcause/Marquette trip on deck, I can’t imagine they’d miss the tournament unless they’re unable to manage 15-3 in the MAC.
12-15-2018 04:16 PM
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zrb2 Offline
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Post: #56
RE: How doe the MAC get 2 NCAA bids ...
Coach Oats said after the game today. They didn’t play very well. But 10-0 is 10-0. And if they can beat SU and Marquette it all but locks up an NCAA bid. I’m surprised he said that considering they have an entire conference season to get through, injuries, etc..
12-15-2018 04:44 PM
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BullBoy Offline
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Post: #57
RE: How doe the MAC get 2 NCAA bids ...
(12-15-2018 04:44 PM)zrb2 Wrote:  Coach Oats said after the game today. They didn’t play very well. But 10-0 is 10-0. And if they can beat SU and Marquette it all but locks up an NCAA bid. I’m surprised he said that considering they have an entire conference season to get through, injuries, etc..

What he said was, if the team takes care of business during conference play, than this weekend can decide an at large.

He knows the team still needs to win in the MAC
12-15-2018 08:31 PM
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pono Offline
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Post: #58
RE: How doe the MAC get 2 NCAA bids ...
buffalo holds serve wth the sweep of top 100 s illinois

kent loses by 13 at illinois

toledo moves to 10-1
12-16-2018 04:40 AM
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axeme Offline
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Post: #59
RE: How doe the MAC get 2 NCAA bids ...
(12-16-2018 04:40 AM)pono Wrote:  buffalo holds serve wth the sweep of top 100 s illinois

kent loses by 13 at Louisville

toledo moves to 10-1

FIFY.
12-16-2018 06:28 AM
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letch0125 Offline
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Post: #60
RE: How doe the MAC get 2 NCAA bids ...
(11-24-2018 07:19 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  Last time that happened was in the late 90s -- with WMU going after bowing out early in the MAC Tourney. WMU had 20 wins -- which is basically the equivalent of 26W (and not playing D2/D3 teams). WMU beat ranked Michigan that year.

So basically -- get about 26 wins regular season, and beat a ranked P6 team while winning your division, but losing in the MAC Tourney, and you can very possibly make it anyway.

If Buffalo enters the MAC just getting votes to be ranked -- and wins the East, but loses in the MAC Tourney to the 2nd best MAC Team -- we'll have 2 teams in.

Actually, happened in the 1999 tournament when Kent beat Miami (who had Wally Sczcerbiak) in the tournament championship game. Miami (22-7) was a 10-seed at large in the Midwest and Kent (23-6) an 11-seed automatic in the East. So that's how it happens - Buffalo has to be pretty dang good all year and/or have a superstar player, and lose in the tournament championship.
12-16-2018 01:09 PM
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