What good assistant wants to go to a terrible program for one year, knowing they'll be let go a year later?

And how is Rowe getting a raw deal? He took a sometimes pretty good program and turned them into a consistently really bad program.
2019: 245
2018: 263
2017: 251
------
2016: 107
2015: 179
2014: 249
2013: 130
2012: 264
2011: 108
2010: 208
2009: 117
2008: 237

But hey, at least by the last game of the season he finally taught our players how to pass out of a weak full-court press...

(03-10-2019 05:35 PM)HyperDuke Wrote:  Jackson, I don’t get what you’re saying. Why are you talking about the 20-21 season?

I was stating expectations for next year. I think he's back another year

(03-11-2019 08:33 AM)JacksonHall Wrote:  

(03-10-2019 05:35 PM)HyperDuke Wrote:  Jackson, I don’t get what you’re saying. Why are you talking about the 20-21 season?

I was stating expectations for next year. I think he's back another year

Next year is Year 4 out of 5. He wouldn't be a lame duck until 20-21.

(03-11-2019 08:13 AM)jmufan2008 Wrote:  What good assistant wants to go to a terrible program for one year, knowing they'll be let go a year later?

And how is Rowe getting a raw deal? He took a sometimes pretty good program and turned them into a consistently really bad program.
2019: 245
2018: 263
2017: 251
------
2016: 107
2015: 179
2014: 249
2013: 130
2012: 264
2011: 108
2010: 208
2009: 117
2008: 237

But hey, at least by the last game of the season he finally taught our players how to pass out of a weak full-court press...

Yeah, improving on Brady would be staying in the 125-75 range every year. Too many folks on here are looking for improvements over Rowe's first 3 years as signs of progress vs the original goal of progress over Brady's last 2 years.

I can easily see how our pattern continues if HCLR does get his GOAT on:

2020: 180 (influx of talent, team gets above .500, Rowe gets extension)
2021: 130 (peaks with senior/soph class, 12-6 CAA record, CAAT finals loss, big draw for arena opening)
2022: 180 (lose one of JR class, other recruits hit or miss, Matt Lewis gone, semi CAAT loss, attendance starts to decline)
2023: 230 (back to Keener round, debates about replacing coach, have to wait on contract expiration, attendance plummets)
2024: 260 (Rowe's last year, arena is a tomb, make cheap hire, rinse and repeat)

I don't think your projection of dropping back to earth after a successful 20-21 is any more likely than their continual improvement. GOAT HCLR's recruiting has been above average for JMU. Christmas is a big get & will be a sophomore when the Lewis class are all seniors. I think it's just as likely that we continue improving before we plateau at whatever is the peak for a team coached by GOAT HCLR.

All that said, regression definitely COULD happen, but I would say if we regress in 21-22 after an extension, Rowe would be on the hot-seat big-time in 22-23 & would never see your final 23-24 season listed above.

(03-10-2019 03:32 PM)jmudukes001 Wrote:  

(11-16-2018 10:02 PM)Hart Foundation Wrote:  The polls are closed and here are the final contestants.

CentDukesFan 69-0 perhaps a barnstorming tour after going 40-0?
DirtyDukes 40-0 National Champions
DukeDogDisciple 24-9
Duke Dawg 23-10
JMUfan2008 23-10
JMUNation 23-11
Halz 22-12
OldDawg 22-13
JMU08 22-13
NJDuke 21-12
AssyrianDuke 21-13
84Breeze 21-14
Anders 20-13
Hart 20-13
Shady P 20-14
JMUDunk 19-14
JMURocks 19-15
Bawlmer Duke 18-15
JMUDukes001 18-15
Rock House Duke 18-15
2Buck 17-14 no postseason?
Purple Pilgrim 17-16
S2dsayer 17-16
Dukesfan1971 16-16
NYDuke 16-17
JMad03 12-20
PGJMU 10-10 no OOC record?

Congratulations to JMad03. The rest of us were way off and bought into the hype from the preseason predictions and expectations.

Everyone talks of seeing some bright spots, but the way I see it this season materially under performed expectations of everyone with the exception of JMad03. Only thing that happened at the end of the year is posters again lowered the bar.


PG - thought middle of the pack CAA

Nation projected 23-11

Duke Dawg projected 23-10

And we were lucky this year in regards to injuries.

We under performed what 24 of 25 people predicted - with no injuries. Not good.

We were one of, if not the most talented team in the CAA.

(03-11-2019 11:50 AM)2Buck Wrote:  

(03-11-2019 08:13 AM)jmufan2008 Wrote:  What good assistant wants to go to a terrible program for one year, knowing they'll be let go a year later?

And how is Rowe getting a raw deal? He took a sometimes pretty good program and turned them into a consistently really bad program.
2019: 245
2018: 263
2017: 251
------
2016: 107
2015: 179
2014: 249
2013: 130
2012: 264
2011: 108
2010: 208
2009: 117
2008: 237

But hey, at least by the last game of the season he finally taught our players how to pass out of a weak full-court press...

Yeah, improving on Brady would be staying in the 125-75 range every year. Too many folks on here are looking for improvements over Rowe's first 3 years as signs of progress vs the original goal of progress over Brady's last 2 years.

I can easily see how our pattern continues if HCLR does get his GOAT on:

2020: 180 (influx of talent, team gets above .500, Rowe gets extension)
2021: 130 (peaks with senior/soph class, 12-6 CAA record, CAAT finals loss, big draw for arena opening)
2022: 180 (lose one of JR class, other recruits hit or miss, Matt Lewis gone, semi CAAT loss, attendance starts to decline)
2023: 230 (back to Keener round, debates about replacing coach, have to wait on contract expiration, attendance plummets)
2024: 260 (Rowe's last year, arena is a tomb, make cheap hire, rinse and repeat)

We should talk off line because you can predict the future. Sorry don’t mean to come across as snarky and you very well may be right but again you can’t doom Rowe because you’ve seen it play out a certain way before or have sizes it up early on- you need to give it a real chance to succeed each and every time.

And one other point- the subject of lame duck and recruiting and general continuity. In class 2020 it’s likely jmu will have 0 scholarships. I expect that Pinkard will be recruited over this off season. All the more reason why the timing of making a big decision next season makes sense. There is no downside from a recruitig standpoint to the program - the new coach or a more stable renewed Rowe will have plenty of time to fill the scholarships thatnopen after the 20-21 season.

Actually, my scenario is a very generous outlook of a potentially horrible outcome.

My whole point is if LR can't coach very well, the talent he finds will mask the program's flaws but only for so long. Top talent (like Christmas may have the potential to become) may just as likely move on from an under-performing team, as stick around for a well-intended but mediocre coach they happen to like.

Likewise, up to now Lou has been able to sell these recruits on "come join me in rebuilding this program, you can play as a freshman" but if he has another season like his first three, don't you think the more talented recruits are going to question whether he has the ability to rebuild the program?

Again, this is if Lou can't make the team better than the sum of its parts, which thus far I've not seen. And like many others on here who have been waiting 25 painful years for a change, this appears to be just another small-minded hire by leaders that just don't get it.

I just wanted to point out that it's a bit of a leap to say his teams will get better the next two years, then get worse due to loss of talent when there's no indication he will stop recruiting talent.

Everyone who wants to sing "Jingle Bells" because Christmas is coming needs to tap the breaks. Darius Banks was also a 3 star recruit and has his up and down games. Freshmen and sophomores will be expected to struggle a little bit. Let's not put too many expectations or pressure on one kid.

(03-11-2019 12:27 PM)Dukester Wrote:  

(03-10-2019 03:32 PM)jmudukes001 Wrote:  

(11-16-2018 10:02 PM)Hart Foundation Wrote:  The polls are closed and here are the final contestants.

CentDukesFan 69-0 perhaps a barnstorming tour after going 40-0?
DirtyDukes 40-0 National Champions
DukeDogDisciple 24-9
Duke Dawg 23-10
JMUfan2008 23-10
JMUNation 23-11
Halz 22-12
OldDawg 22-13
JMU08 22-13
NJDuke 21-12
AssyrianDuke 21-13
84Breeze 21-14
Anders 20-13
Hart 20-13
Shady P 20-14
JMUDunk 19-14
JMURocks 19-15
Bawlmer Duke 18-15
JMUDukes001 18-15
Rock House Duke 18-15
2Buck 17-14 no postseason?
Purple Pilgrim 17-16
S2dsayer 17-16
Dukesfan1971 16-16
NYDuke 16-17
JMad03 12-20
PGJMU 10-10 no OOC record?

Congratulations to JMad03. The rest of us were way off and bought into the hype from the preseason predictions and expectations.

Everyone talks of seeing some bright spots, but the way I see it this season materially under performed expectations of everyone with the exception of JMad03. Only thing that happened at the end of the year is posters again lowered the bar.


PG - thought middle of the pack CAA

Nation projected 23-11

Duke Dawg projected 23-10

And we were lucky this year in regards to injuries.

We under performed what 24 of 25 people predicted - with no injuries. Not good.

We were one of, if not the most talented team in the CAA.

Just amazing. Again, if we just had a better coach with this talent, we would have definitely won at least several more games and met the record of what most expected. There is also nothing wrong with exceeding expectations. None of that under Rowe.

Just ask opponents fans who see us play.

What VCU and ODU and Liberty and Radford and UVA and Tech are doing in their conferences can be done by us in the fairly weak CAA. Just spend and get a better and established coach as a starter.

Great season by other teams in VA by rhe way.

(03-11-2019 12:27 PM)Dukester Wrote:  

(03-10-2019 03:32 PM)jmudukes001 Wrote:  

(11-16-2018 10:02 PM)Hart Foundation Wrote:  The polls are closed and here are the final contestants.

CentDukesFan 69-0 perhaps a barnstorming tour after going 40-0?
DirtyDukes 40-0 National Champions
DukeDogDisciple 24-9
Duke Dawg 23-10
JMUfan2008 23-10
JMUNation 23-11
Halz 22-12
OldDawg 22-13
JMU08 22-13
NJDuke 21-12
AssyrianDuke 21-13
84Breeze 21-14
Anders 20-13
Hart 20-13
Shady P 20-14
JMUDunk 19-14
JMURocks 19-15
Bawlmer Duke 18-15
JMUDukes001 18-15
Rock House Duke 18-15
2Buck 17-14 no postseason?
Purple Pilgrim 17-16
S2dsayer 17-16
Dukesfan1971 16-16
NYDuke 16-17
JMad03 12-20
PGJMU 10-10 no OOC record?

Congratulations to JMad03. The rest of us were way off and bought into the hype from the preseason predictions and expectations.

Everyone talks of seeing some bright spots, but the way I see it this season materially under performed expectations of everyone with the exception of JMad03. Only thing that happened at the end of the year is posters again lowered the bar.


PG - thought middle of the pack CAA

Nation projected 23-11

Duke Dawg projected 23-10

And we were lucky this year in regards to injuries.

We under performed what 24 of 25 people predicted - with no injuries. Not good.

We were one of, if not the most talented team in the CAA.

The way I see it, everyone was (and still is) placing more weight on the talent we had (have) coming in than the talent of the guy running the show, Coach Rowe. I have been saying it and will continue to say it: talented players will only get you so far. A successful program needs a good coach that can elevate the talent. If you look at it the other way around, you are setting the program up for failure.
If Rowe is back (and I think he will be), it'll be the same song and dance.
"The team is too young and all they need is more time to develop" Sound familiar??
I'm negative about this program not because of the players, but because of Rowe.
I've asked this before and I'll ask again because I've yet received a sufficient answer:
Aside from recruiting, what has Rowe done that would make him deserving of receiving another year as our coach?
Also, in what ways (aside from playing hard) has each team under Rowe improved?

I'm mostly asking because I know I don't have all the answers. I don't want to be negative about this program but everything I've seen so far has given me zero hope that anything will change as long as Rowe is our head coach.

(03-11-2019 04:18 PM)JMad03 Wrote:  

(03-11-2019 12:27 PM)Dukester Wrote:  

(03-10-2019 03:32 PM)jmudukes001 Wrote:  

(11-16-2018 10:02 PM)Hart Foundation Wrote:  The polls are closed and here are the final contestants.

CentDukesFan 69-0 perhaps a barnstorming tour after going 40-0?
DirtyDukes 40-0 National Champions
DukeDogDisciple 24-9
Duke Dawg 23-10
JMUfan2008 23-10
JMUNation 23-11
Halz 22-12
OldDawg 22-13
JMU08 22-13
NJDuke 21-12
AssyrianDuke 21-13
84Breeze 21-14
Anders 20-13
Hart 20-13
Shady P 20-14
JMUDunk 19-14
JMURocks 19-15
Bawlmer Duke 18-15
JMUDukes001 18-15
Rock House Duke 18-15
2Buck 17-14 no postseason?
Purple Pilgrim 17-16
S2dsayer 17-16
Dukesfan1971 16-16
NYDuke 16-17
JMad03 12-20
PGJMU 10-10 no OOC record?

Congratulations to JMad03. The rest of us were way off and bought into the hype from the preseason predictions and expectations.

Everyone talks of seeing some bright spots, but the way I see it this season materially under performed expectations of everyone with the exception of JMad03. Only thing that happened at the end of the year is posters again lowered the bar.


PG - thought middle of the pack CAA

Nation projected 23-11

Duke Dawg projected 23-10

And we were lucky this year in regards to injuries.

We under performed what 24 of 25 people predicted - with no injuries. Not good.

We were one of, if not the most talented team in the CAA.

The way I see it, everyone was (and still is) placing more weight on the talent we had (have) coming in than the talent of the guy running the show, Coach Rowe. I have been saying it and will continue to say it: talented players will only get you so far. A successful program needs a good coach that can elevate the talent. If you look at it the other way around, you are setting the program up for failure.
If Rowe is back (and I think he will be), it'll be the same song and dance.
"The team is too young and all they need is more time to develop" Sound familiar??
I'm negative about this program not because of the players, but because of Rowe.
I've asked this before and I'll ask again because I've yet received a sufficient answer:
Aside from recruiting, what has Rowe done that would make him deserving of receiving another year as our coach?
Also, in what ways (aside from playing hard) has each team under Rowe improved?

I'm mostly asking because I know I don't have all the answers. I don't want to be negative about this program but everything I've seen so far has given me zero hope that anything will change as long as Rowe is our head coach.

Yep

Everyone sees the talent, then lowers the bar and provides excuses.

Based on the talent - very knowledgeable posters predicated much better.

Who can we hire if we axe Rowe? I have less than 0% confidence we can pull in a proven HC.

EVERYONE wants better! I just don’t think JMU has the tools (leadership) to execute that with a new hire. If Rowe continues the improvement that seemed evident late season, I think we should stick with him until he plateaus. If that’s next year, then make the move.

(03-11-2019 04:42 PM)HyperDuke Wrote:  EVERYONE wants better! I just don’t think JMU has the tools (leadership) to execute that with a new hire. If Rowe continues the improvement that seemed evident late season, I think we should stick with him until he plateaus. If that’s next year, then make the move.

My fear is that as head coach at JMU, Lou has already plateaued. Maybe if he had spent 4-5 years under a strong P5 coach to mentor him I’d feel like he has a higher ceiling that we haven’t seen yet.

But based on 3 years I have a real concern that his success is going to ebb and flow solely by how well individual players take it upon themselves to do their own thing, vs the team playing as a well-oiled machine.

(03-11-2019 05:43 PM)2Buck Wrote:  

(03-11-2019 04:42 PM)HyperDuke Wrote:  EVERYONE wants better! I just don’t think JMU has the tools (leadership) to execute that with a new hire. If Rowe continues the improvement that seemed evident late season, I think we should stick with him until he plateaus. If that’s next year, then make the move.

My fear is that as head coach at JMU, Lou has already plateaued. Maybe if he had spent 4-5 years under a strong P5 coach to mentor him I’d feel like he has a higher ceiling that we haven’t seen yet.

But based on 3 years I have a real concern that his success is going to ebb and flow solely by how well individual players take it upon themselves to do their own thing, vs the team playing as a well-oiled machine.

Down 7 points with 5 min to play in the CAA tournament and he asks Matt Lewis what play they should run. Tells you all you need to know

(03-11-2019 04:42 PM)HyperDuke Wrote:  EVERYONE wants better! I just don’t think JMU has the tools (leadership) to execute that with a new hire. If Rowe continues the improvement that seemed evident late season, I think we should stick with him until he plateaus. If that’s next year, then make the move.

What “tools” are lacking at JMU? The “tools” seemed adequate and up to the task in hiring and replacing FB HCs, and just about every other sport except MBB and Baseball.

I think LR should be moved into some other role for the remaining two years of his contract. It’s time. Will it happen? No. Odds are against it, however, LR is not meeting expectations.

I think it’s very fair to think this is as good as Rowe gets. I just don’t think 3 years is enough to judge fully based on what we knew about Rowe when we made the hire. If he doesn’t win enough next year, we all know he’s gone. Just like people give Brady credit for a “tourney win” vs LIU-Brooklyn in the first four in Dayton, Rowe has two “conference tourney wins” despite occurring on Pillow Fight Friday/Saturday.

I chose to view the Matt Lewis thing as GOAT HCLR showing his confidence in Matt to take over. Was that a biased POV, probably. I’m excited to see what happens next season. If he bombs, my life will continue to be great just like the previous 25 years of awful to middling JMU MBB.