(08-16-2018 01:34 PM)illiniowl Wrote:  Well, since Karlgaard has done a pretty poor job on the transparency and communication fronts, we actually don't know if he has thought of -- much less tried -- any approaches to fixing our conference problem other than "let's try to win more and cross our fingers that lightning strikes." We simply do not know if this plan, whose chances of success I generously estimate at about .0001%, nevertheless was found, after rigorous study (and perhaps failures of other alternatives tried), to still be the most viable of a bad set of options, or whether, frankly, he lacks the vision to conceive of any approach that isn't utterly conventional.

Everyone has the vision to conceive of approaches that are unconventional.

The responsible leader must conceive of an unconventional approach that is credible and worth the risk.

An unconventional approach that has low chance of success is the definition of act of desperation.

It's a quirk of human nature to ascribe greater chance of success to great need for success, even though objectively the odds of success are slim to none. This fallacy is exploited by quack medicine, for example. If a cancer patient sticks with conventional treatment and declines to be injected with human urine, I would not accuse him of lacking vision.

(08-16-2018 01:41 PM)ranfin Wrote:  

(08-16-2018 10:29 AM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  

(08-16-2018 10:23 AM)mrbig Wrote:  Rice gets so little from CUSA at this point, it would make sense to join a P5 even if Rice agreed to 0% of conference revenue for 10-20 years except whatever share Rice contributed to the conference pot through bowl appearances, basketball tournament appearances, etc. Rice would likely make more through home attendance concessions against more interesting opponents than we currently get from CUSA, and at least we would be in a conference with more "peer institution" opponents and the remaining conference opponents would be more interesting than the current CUSA slate. Rice needs to view membership in a P5 conference as a marketing strategy, not a money-making strategy. Membership in CUSA has no positive value for Rice's academic reputation. Membership in a P5 conference could improve Rice's overall reputation, or at least help make Rice more of a household name outside Texas.

Why would a P5 agree to this? Is there something you imagine Rice has to offer that they want?

Academically prestigious addition, access to Houston market, no loss of revenue, easy wins. What’s not to like? Not saying it’s enough, or that winning against us would necessarily be easy. Just saying the scenario is not implausible.

And yet, such as scenario has never played out - hence, by definition, implausible.

Things are what they are.

(08-16-2018 01:37 PM)Antarius Wrote:  

(08-16-2018 01:09 PM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  

(08-16-2018 01:03 PM)Antarius Wrote:  

(08-16-2018 10:02 AM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  

(08-16-2018 09:50 AM)Antarius Wrote:  This is true. The issue is, Karlgaard has been here what, 5 or 6 years? Why have we been continuing to manufacture those chocolate covered turds for so long?

The fact that this year we FINALLY appear to have decided to try to stop (not sure if we will) makes it appear that we have been aimlessly sauntering around CUSA without the urgency needed to bail ASAP.

I understand it isnt easy, but the time to have fixed the product or tried should have been 5 years ago, not after you poisoned all your customers with diseases and have no market position left.

It's good that the branding is better, but right now its deck chairs on a titanic in terms or level of importance

Do you think a quick fix is all that was necessary?

Of course not. But it was the first thing.

Tylenol first had to recall all their product and then put out ads and new tamper proof seals and everything else. They couldn't just do some ads and re branding while leaving the potentially cyanide laced product out of the open market.

How do you fix the problem of chocolate covered turds not selling? Stop selling chocolate covered turds. Then move on to everything else.

False dichotomy.

Rebranding is 1000x easier to do, so it got done faster. No reason these things have to be done sequentially.

Of course rebranding is easier to do, but the question is impact. Tylenol had to FIX the problem... rebranding was ancillary to the core issue. Given that we sat on starting to make changes to fix the turd problem for 5 years, making conference moves and stuff seems to not be high on the priority list. Tylenol didn't have the luxury of rebranding and waiting to recall. They would have been finished.

They don't have to be done sequentially, but doing the easy stuff while waiting a half decade for the important stuff says a lot. Actions speak louder than words.

Why do you suppose they're waiting? If an organization is working on more than one thing at a time from year X onward, and the important stuff takes half a decade or more, then the stuff that doesn't take half a decade gets done first.

You'd have Kennedy hold off on his Apollo project speech until after the moon landing, and keep Tang off the market until we've colonized Mars.

Patterson Tour.

https://youtu.be/gj_HuQLtjTA

(08-16-2018 01:58 PM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  

(08-16-2018 01:37 PM)Antarius Wrote:  

(08-16-2018 01:09 PM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  

(08-16-2018 01:03 PM)Antarius Wrote:  

(08-16-2018 10:02 AM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  Do you think a quick fix is all that was necessary?

Of course not. But it was the first thing.

Tylenol first had to recall all their product and then put out ads and new tamper proof seals and everything else. They couldn't just do some ads and re branding while leaving the potentially cyanide laced product out of the open market.

How do you fix the problem of chocolate covered turds not selling? Stop selling chocolate covered turds. Then move on to everything else.

False dichotomy.

Rebranding is 1000x easier to do, so it got done faster. No reason these things have to be done sequentially.

Of course rebranding is easier to do, but the question is impact. Tylenol had to FIX the problem... rebranding was ancillary to the core issue. Given that we sat on starting to make changes to fix the turd problem for 5 years, making conference moves and stuff seems to not be high on the priority list. Tylenol didn't have the luxury of rebranding and waiting to recall. They would have been finished.

They don't have to be done sequentially, but doing the easy stuff while waiting a half decade for the important stuff says a lot. Actions speak louder than words.

Why do you suppose they're waiting? If an organization is working on more than one thing at a time from year X onward, and the important stuff takes half a decade or more, then the stuff that doesn't take half a decade gets done first.

You'd have Kennedy hold off on his Apollo project speech until after the moon landing, and keep Tang off the market until we've colonized Mars.

Plus the rebranding we're seeing right now is definitely associated with the changes in our football program. We also have a major change coming in baseball.

I don't know if the AD held off on doing major overhauls in the brands until he knew there were going to be significant changes in coaching in the Big 3, but the timing right now is perfect from that perspective.

We certainly would not want to wait until we see how the coaches perform, as we could miss the opportunity to capitalize on fresh faces bringing in more wins than outsiders expect.

(08-16-2018 01:58 PM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  

(08-16-2018 01:37 PM)Antarius Wrote:  

(08-16-2018 01:09 PM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  

(08-16-2018 01:03 PM)Antarius Wrote:  

(08-16-2018 10:02 AM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  Do you think a quick fix is all that was necessary?

Of course not. But it was the first thing.

Tylenol first had to recall all their product and then put out ads and new tamper proof seals and everything else. They couldn't just do some ads and re branding while leaving the potentially cyanide laced product out of the open market.

How do you fix the problem of chocolate covered turds not selling? Stop selling chocolate covered turds. Then move on to everything else.

False dichotomy.

Rebranding is 1000x easier to do, so it got done faster. No reason these things have to be done sequentially.

Of course rebranding is easier to do, but the question is impact. Tylenol had to FIX the problem... rebranding was ancillary to the core issue. Given that we sat on starting to make changes to fix the turd problem for 5 years, making conference moves and stuff seems to not be high on the priority list. Tylenol didn't have the luxury of rebranding and waiting to recall. They would have been finished.

They don't have to be done sequentially, but doing the easy stuff while waiting a half decade for the important stuff says a lot. Actions speak louder than words.

Why do you suppose they're waiting? If an organization is working on more than one thing at a time from year X onward, and the important stuff takes half a decade or more, then the stuff that doesn't take half a decade gets done first.

You'd have Kennedy hold off on his Apollo project speech until after the moon landing, and keep Tang off the market until we've colonized Mars.

You call me out for false dichotomy and compare Rice athletics to the Kennedy speech? The Kennedy speech was inspirational, a call to arms. What we have done is "maybe we will build a rocket someday" and then nothing on that front.

Worse we said Top 25 in all sports and then in the key sport Football, did nothing to even remotely look like we were trying to get there for FIVE plus years. This doesn't even factor into the importance of time and the opportunity and fiscal cost involved.

Imagine you are on a sinking boat - you say "We will find a way to get off".. what would make sense is then to focus on getting off the boat. We sat on the boat as it sank and did our hair, changed clothes and wrote press releases all while taking on more and more water.

So yes, from an observer standpoint, it looks like there is no urgency whatsoever. Maybe it all isn't on Karlgaard (the 25(0) seemingly ****** stuff up) but clearly we have not been acting in an optimal manner with the speed needed to fix things.

All this ties back to the point by illiniowl - is moving conferences a real priority or goal?

(08-16-2018 02:14 PM)Antarius Wrote:  

(08-16-2018 01:58 PM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  

(08-16-2018 01:37 PM)Antarius Wrote:  

(08-16-2018 01:09 PM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  

(08-16-2018 01:03 PM)Antarius Wrote:  Of course not. But it was the first thing.

Tylenol first had to recall all their product and then put out ads and new tamper proof seals and everything else. They couldn't just do some ads and re branding while leaving the potentially cyanide laced product out of the open market.

How do you fix the problem of chocolate covered turds not selling? Stop selling chocolate covered turds. Then move on to everything else.

False dichotomy.

Rebranding is 1000x easier to do, so it got done faster. No reason these things have to be done sequentially.

Of course rebranding is easier to do, but the question is impact. Tylenol had to FIX the problem... rebranding was ancillary to the core issue. Given that we sat on starting to make changes to fix the turd problem for 5 years, making conference moves and stuff seems to not be high on the priority list. Tylenol didn't have the luxury of rebranding and waiting to recall. They would have been finished.

They don't have to be done sequentially, but doing the easy stuff while waiting a half decade for the important stuff says a lot. Actions speak louder than words.

Why do you suppose they're waiting? If an organization is working on more than one thing at a time from year X onward, and the important stuff takes half a decade or more, then the stuff that doesn't take half a decade gets done first.

You'd have Kennedy hold off on his Apollo project speech until after the moon landing, and keep Tang off the market until we've colonized Mars.

You call me out for false dichotomy and compare Rice athletics to the Kennedy speech? The Kennedy speech was inspirational, a call to arms. What we have done is "maybe we will build a rocket someday" and then nothing on that front.

Worse we said Top 25 in all sports and then in the key sport Football, did nothing to even remotely look like we were trying to get there for FIVE plus years. This doesn't even factor into the importance of time and the opportunity and fiscal cost involved.

Imagine you are on a sinking boat - you say "We will find a way to get off".. what would make sense is then to focus on getting off the boat. We sat on the boat as it sank and did our hair, changed clothes and wrote press releases all while taking on more and more water.

If you have time to do those things while the boat is sinking, why not? Film it with your smartphone while you're at it - it will make a great youtube post. I do not agree with you that the most important thing must be done first and before anything else gets done. Nobody and no organization actually functions that way. The most important thing you need to do in the morning is get to work, but why not have some breakfast and brush your teeth if you have time?

Quote:So yes, from an observer standpoint, it looks like there is no urgency whatsoever. Maybe it all isn't on Karlgaard (the 25(0) seemingly ****** stuff up) but clearly we have not been acting in an optimal manner with the speed needed to fix things.

"Observer", meaning you? "Looks like"? From what I can tell, a lot has been going on. This is no caretaker administration. I'll refer back to someone else's analogy: you didn't see him eat breakfast, so you know that he didn't?

(08-16-2018 02:07 PM)Tiki Owl Wrote:  Patterson Tour.

https://youtu.be/gj_HuQLtjTA

We're officially a big-time program. We have an arcade game in our football facility.

(08-16-2018 02:26 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(08-16-2018 02:07 PM)Tiki Owl Wrote:  Patterson Tour.

https://youtu.be/gj_HuQLtjTA

We're officially a big-time program. We have an arcade game in our football facility.

That stuff matters to recruiting. We can about whether it should, but it does.

(08-16-2018 02:25 PM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  If you have time to do those things while the boat is sinking, why not? Film it with your smartphone while you're at it - it will make a great youtube post. I do not agree with you that the most important thing must be done first and before anything else gets done. Nobody and no organization actually functions that way. The most important thing you need to do in the morning is get to work, but why not have some breakfast and brush your teeth if you have time?

Bolded the issue with your reply. We don't have time. Never did.

If the boat has taken water and isn't taking on more, then sure, make a youtube post. If time is of the essence and by the time you are done with the video you are underwater, its pretty stupid to waste time.

The most important thing doesn't have to hold up everything else, but it isn't like this is a 6 months on the job conversation. It took over 5 years to do the key thing (among others) and that puts Rice even farther behind than we were.

(08-16-2018 01:52 PM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  

(08-16-2018 01:41 PM)ranfin Wrote:  

(08-16-2018 10:29 AM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  

(08-16-2018 10:23 AM)mrbig Wrote:  Rice gets so little from CUSA at this point, it would make sense to join a P5 even if Rice agreed to 0% of conference revenue for 10-20 years except whatever share Rice contributed to the conference pot through bowl appearances, basketball tournament appearances, etc. Rice would likely make more through home attendance concessions against more interesting opponents than we currently get from CUSA, and at least we would be in a conference with more "peer institution" opponents and the remaining conference opponents would be more interesting than the current CUSA slate. Rice needs to view membership in a P5 conference as a marketing strategy, not a money-making strategy. Membership in CUSA has no positive value for Rice's academic reputation. Membership in a P5 conference could improve Rice's overall reputation, or at least help make Rice more of a household name outside Texas.

Why would a P5 agree to this? Is there something you imagine Rice has to offer that they want?

Academically prestigious addition, access to Houston market, no loss of revenue, easy wins. What’s not to like? Not saying it’s enough, or that winning against us would necessarily be easy. Just saying the scenario is not implausible.

And yet, such as scenario has never played out - hence, by definition, implausible.

Things are what they are.

Something doesn’t become implausible simply because it hasn’t happened.

(08-16-2018 02:28 PM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  

(08-16-2018 02:26 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(08-16-2018 02:07 PM)Tiki Owl Wrote:  Patterson Tour.

https://youtu.be/gj_HuQLtjTA

We're officially a big-time program. We have an arcade game in our football facility.

That stuff matters to recruiting. We can about whether it should, but it does.

No matter how many airlines or Fortune 500 companies we compare ourselves too...

(08-16-2018 02:34 PM)Antarius Wrote:  

(08-16-2018 02:25 PM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  If you have time to do those things while the boat is sinking, why not? Film it with your smartphone while you're at it - it will make a great youtube post. I do not agree with you that the most important thing must be done first and before anything else gets done. Nobody and no organization actually functions that way. The most important thing you need to do in the morning is get to work, but why not have some breakfast and brush your teeth if you have time?

Bolded the issue with your reply. We don't have time. Never did.

If the boat has taken water and isn't taking on more, then sure, make a youtube post. If time is of the essence and by the time you are done with the video you are underwater, its pretty stupid to waste time.

The most important thing doesn't have to hold up everything else, but it isn't like this is a 6 months on the job conversation. It took over 5 years to do the key thing (among others) and that puts Rice even farther behind than we were.

But on the other hand things take the time they take. If there isn't time to lower and fill all of the lifeboats, then they won't all get lowered and filled. If building a winning culture and winning athletic programs takes years, it takes years.

I'm not sure the ship sinking is the best analogy anyway. There's no defined "lights out" date.

(08-16-2018 02:36 PM)ranfin Wrote:  

(08-16-2018 01:52 PM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  

(08-16-2018 01:41 PM)ranfin Wrote:  

(08-16-2018 10:29 AM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  

(08-16-2018 10:23 AM)mrbig Wrote:  Rice gets so little from CUSA at this point, it would make sense to join a P5 even if Rice agreed to 0% of conference revenue for 10-20 years except whatever share Rice contributed to the conference pot through bowl appearances, basketball tournament appearances, etc. Rice would likely make more through home attendance concessions against more interesting opponents than we currently get from CUSA, and at least we would be in a conference with more "peer institution" opponents and the remaining conference opponents would be more interesting than the current CUSA slate. Rice needs to view membership in a P5 conference as a marketing strategy, not a money-making strategy. Membership in CUSA has no positive value for Rice's academic reputation. Membership in a P5 conference could improve Rice's overall reputation, or at least help make Rice more of a household name outside Texas.

Why would a P5 agree to this? Is there something you imagine Rice has to offer that they want?

Academically prestigious addition, access to Houston market, no loss of revenue, easy wins. What’s not to like? Not saying it’s enough, or that winning against us would necessarily be easy. Just saying the scenario is not implausible.

And yet, such as scenario has never played out - hence, by definition, implausible.

Things are what they are.

Something doesn’t become implausible simply because it hasn’t happened.

That all depends... if it's blindingly obvious to everyone that it should happen if it could happen, and it doesn't happen, then it's implausible.

(08-16-2018 02:59 PM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  

(08-16-2018 02:36 PM)ranfin Wrote:  

(08-16-2018 01:52 PM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  

(08-16-2018 01:41 PM)ranfin Wrote:  

(08-16-2018 10:29 AM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  Why would a P5 agree to this? Is there something you imagine Rice has to offer that they want?

Academically prestigious addition, access to Houston market, no loss of revenue, easy wins. What’s not to like? Not saying it’s enough, or that winning against us would necessarily be easy. Just saying the scenario is not implausible.

And yet, such as scenario has never played out - hence, by definition, implausible.

Things are what they are.

Something doesn’t become implausible simply because it hasn’t happened.

That all depends... if it's blindingly obvious to everyone that it should happen if it could happen, and it doesn't happen, then it's implausible.

Until now: 1) Has Rice investested enough in facilities to make them attractive to p5 opponents? 2) Has Rice offered to forego revenue sharing as an enticement? 3) Has the Houston market been as powerful as it is today? 4) Has Rice made a serious, well-constructed application to a p5 conference?
It may seem blindingly obvious to you that Rice should already been admitted to a P5 conference. Hardly seems obvious to me.

Looking forward to seeing he Rice Owls lighting in the weight room from my seat as it gets dark.

I'm so confused by Antarius talking about boats instead of planes...

(08-16-2018 02:07 PM)Tiki Owl Wrote:  Patterson Tour.

https://youtu.be/gj_HuQLtjTA

Looks a lot better than the initial grand opening tour.

(08-16-2018 03:29 PM)ranfin Wrote:  

(08-16-2018 02:59 PM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  

(08-16-2018 02:36 PM)ranfin Wrote:  

(08-16-2018 01:52 PM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  

(08-16-2018 01:41 PM)ranfin Wrote:  Academically prestigious addition, access to Houston market, no loss of revenue, easy wins. What’s not to like? Not saying it’s enough, or that winning against us would necessarily be easy. Just saying the scenario is not implausible.

And yet, such as scenario has never played out - hence, by definition, implausible.

Things are what they are.

Something doesn’t become implausible simply because it hasn’t happened.

That all depends... if it's blindingly obvious to everyone that it should happen if it could happen, and it doesn't happen, then it's implausible.

Until now: 1) Has Rice investested enough in facilities to make them attractive to p5 opponents? 2) Has Rice offered to forego revenue sharing as an enticement? 3) Has the Houston market been as powerful as it is today? 4) Has Rice made a serious, well-constructed application to a p5 conference?
It may seem blindingly obvious to you that Rice should already been admitted to a P5 conference. Hardly seems obvious to me.

No, it's blindingly obvious to me that Rice is not going to be admitted to a P5 conference any time soon.
Item 1 - facilities investment, theoretically possible, but the athletic department struggled to scrape together $30 million for the EZF, and by P5 standards that's pocket change.
Item 2 - the P5 doesn't care. Show them the value added, and by value they mean cash value. Why should they do Rice the favor of helping Rice become more marketable?
Item 3 - the "Houston market" is already delivered - it's not like Houston TV sets aren't already tuned to Saturday sports, and the market is getting more subdivided by competition for eyeballs with each passing year, not less.
Item 4 - yes, although if you're inclined to believe that if it didn't result in an invite it wasn't well-constructed enough, then no application will ever be good enough. The idea that Rice isn't already in a P5 because nobody has ever made a good enough sales pitch is outright delusional.

(08-16-2018 03:46 PM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  

(08-16-2018 03:29 PM)ranfin Wrote:  

(08-16-2018 02:59 PM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  

(08-16-2018 02:36 PM)ranfin Wrote:  

(08-16-2018 01:52 PM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  And yet, such as scenario has never played out - hence, by definition, implausible.

Things are what they are.

Something doesn’t become implausible simply because it hasn’t happened.

That all depends... if it's blindingly obvious to everyone that it should happen if it could happen, and it doesn't happen, then it's implausible.

Until now: 1) Has Rice investested enough in facilities to make them attractive to p5 opponents? 2) Has Rice offered to forego revenue sharing as an enticement? 3) Has the Houston market been as powerful as it is today? 4) Has Rice made a serious, well-constructed application to a p5 conference?
It may seem blindingly obvious to you that Rice should already been admitted to a P5 conference. Hardly seems obvious to me.

No, it's blindingly obvious to me that Rice is not going to be admitted to a P5 conference any time soon.
Item 1 - facilities investment, theoretically possible, but the athletic department struggled to scrape together $30 million for the EZF, and by P5 standards that's pocket change.
Item 2 - the P5 doesn't care. Show them the value added, and by value they mean cash value. Why should they do Rice the favor of helping Rice become more marketable?
Item 3 - the "Houston market" is already delivered - it's not like Houston TV sets aren't already tuned to Saturday sports, and the market is getting more subdivided by competition for eyeballs with each passing year, not less.
Item 4 - yes, although if you're inclined to believe that if it didn't result in an invite it wasn't well-constructed enough, then no application will ever be good enough. The idea that Rice isn't already in a P5 because nobody has ever made a good enough sales pitch is outright delusional.

Not just subdivided. TV catchment areas are becoming increasingly irrelevant. With live streaming, the whole TV contract equation is going to change.

This is why I think expecting another wave of realignment to save us (or hoping) isn't a good idea. Jumbo TV contracts due to TV catchment markets and number of eyeballs in the vicinity aren't the way of the future.