https://www.cbsnews.com/news/commentary-...he-house/#

"...They may not be as articulate as Bluto from "Animal House," but America's Republican loyalists—particularly the #MAGA hat crowd—want the rest of the country to know that they don't accept the predictions of certain electoral doom this November. And it turns out they have some data to keep their hopes alive.

You just have to look really hard to find it.

At first glance, the topline numbers look terrible for President Trump and his party: The president's approval is an underwhelming 43 percent in the RealClearPolitics average of polls, and the GOP is trailing on the generic ballot by about 5 percent...."

Sounds like the same sort of stuff about how we were going to have our first woman president in 2016. Really generic inside the Beltway analysis and no hard numbers. But then Democrats have always been bad at math.

This week was the first time the RCP analysis showed the Democrats ahead in the number of House seats leaning their way. And its not because Democrats are moving up. They've been stuck at 199 leaning, solid or safe for a while. Its that the Republicans keep slipping. RCP moved 6 seats into the tossup, so its 199 D, 196 R.

Like November, I think the pundits are doing a lot of wishful and inside the beltway thinking. There will be no massive Blue wave. There may be enough to take the House, but not necessarily. I think it will be between 235 R-200 D (right now it is 235-193 with 7 vacancies, 6 of which were R) to 225 D-210 R.