Expanding on the delivery of the beer, Uber has already ramped up its auto-trucking in a way I see expanding very quickly. Basically they use auto trucks to move freight from hub-to-hub and humans on the local routes. My Dad was a driver for 40 years before he retired and the stories of delivering to little towns around Memphis I honestly don't see them ever moving to automated trucks, way too many variables trying to get a 50' trailer into Erv's tool and die on mainstreet.

But using auto-trucks strictly for interstate driving seems to be a no brainer

Uber trucks moving freight in arizone

I could see automated freight delivery into and between freight hubs. The hubs could be standardized to enhance automation (ease of backing..ect). From there local drivers would distribute to the customer. I could see it working at a hub set up for automation but you have a wide variance of docks, alleys and tight backing areas that would make automation pretty hard to do all the way to the customer. I guess though with the right computer mapping technology a truck could make the complicated backs required by the local drivers. I will be interesting to see what the marketplace provides in regard to this technology.

(07-29-2018 07:32 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  The trick is not to pay $15/hr for jobs with $5/hr worth of productivity, but to create more jobs with $15/hr worth of productivity.

The purpose of a universal basic income is not to provide welfare Cadillacs to those who know how to manipulate the system, but rather to provide a subsistence level safety net for everyone. if you want to live better than subsistence, you have to generate earned income.

I think it helps to have those two concepts in mind when discussing these issues.

If we went to UBC..then public assistance has to ended to the vast majority that now receive it. I could go live with that especially if combined with a consumption tax paradigm that would scrape in extra revenue from illegal activities and the black and grey markets.

(07-30-2018 11:15 AM)bobdizole Wrote:  Expanding on the delivery of the beer, Uber has already ramped up its auto-trucking in a way I see expanding very quickly. Basically they use auto trucks to move freight from hub-to-hub and humans on the local routes. My Dad was a driver for 40 years before he retired and the stories of delivering to little towns around Memphis I honestly don't see them ever moving to automated trucks, way too many variables trying to get a 50' trailer into Erv's tool and die on mainstreet.

But using auto-trucks strictly for interstate driving seems to be a no brainer

Uber trucks moving freight in arizone

that’s XACLY! my take on it....

The thing that will save some trucking jobs is the fact that there are a lot of towns that will legislate protection for existing industries.

I can definitely seeing some jobs being created for people who just go around picking up loads at hubs and taking it them somewhere in town.

(07-30-2018 10:28 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  

(07-30-2018 10:21 AM)nomad2u2001 Wrote:  I think we could all agree on improving education. The question is: How?
Like my mom told me (A recently retired principal), education is one of the preferred battlegrounds where politics on both sides matter more than improvement. It's also a money grab for textbook/testing companies. Those alone prevent us from adopting best-in-world approaches.

I think the "politics matter more than improvement" part is a big key. I don't think that necessarily prevents us from adopting best-in-world approaches. But in the present situation, it clearly doesn't help.

I think it stops real conversation and compromise cold. It's just like healthcare.

Hub and spoke trucking will revolutionize transportation and continue to fine-tune "just in time" warehousing. And watch how busy the interstates get from midnight to 5am - the driving time with few interruptions for robots to have to manage.

And after hub and spoke trucking is perfected they will be able to fine tune autonomous local delivery as well. Won't mean a robot is going to unload the truck (yet) but it's all coming. Lead, follow or get out of the way.

On the other hand, I am going to be interested in seeing the next round of Jesse James-esque criminals who stop Robot Trucks on deserted highways and unload the goods. With human drivers and their capacity to fight back, we've not seen a lot of that form of robbery.

(07-30-2018 02:23 PM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  Hub and spoke trucking will revolutionize transportation and continue to fine-tune "just in time" warehousing. And watch how busy the interstates get from midnight to 5am - the driving time with few interruptions for robots to have to manage.

And after hub and spoke trucking is perfected they will be able to fine tune autonomous local delivery as well. Won't mean a robot is going to unload the truck (yet) but it's all coming. Lead, follow or get out of the way.

On the other hand, I am going to be interested in seeing the next round of Jesse James-esque criminals who stop Robot Trucks on deserted highways and unload the goods. With human drivers and their capacity to fight back, we've not seen a lot of that form of robbery.

There is already so much freight on Interstate 85 that would turn nighttime into quite a thing to watch. Especially given that autonomous vehicles will likely eventually run in tight convoy groups for better fuel economy. You don't have to worry about tailgating the guy in front when he can brake for you too. A more high tech version of an Australian land train.

(07-29-2018 07:22 PM)Claw Wrote:  Automated vehicles are unstoppable.

The kids today will use them just so they can go home legally after a night on the town.

Delivery of goods will be much different than all of you are thinking. You are all thinking in terms of what we do now. It won't work that way. Automated delivery will see suppliers sending goods to hubs. Long haulers moving between hubs. The last mile will vary between service providers and companies that do their own pickup. This will all be radically different with any part of the three legs being shuffled between road, air, and drone.

It's coming. You cant stop it. Invest.

That last mile makes up most of the drivers and no way will the local convenience store be picking up their own stock. Too many different brands delivered to each of those stores. So now the convenience store is going to hire someone to go pick up chips, go pick up drinks, go pick up milk, to go pick up beer.....then shelve it? You are replacing 1 driver that might service 20 stores in a day and now making those 20 stores hire a driver to pick up the goods.

Looks like Stink is correct....just replacing one job for another. Driver less trucks (in large numbers) might happen but not in my lifetime and I'm 58. Even if it happens a very large % of any lost of jobs will be made up with fleets of tech service jobs and new support staff for all of these trucks. That's not including mechanics that we have today.

Autonomous vehicles should be banned or at least be required to be bright orange so I know to stay the phuck away from them.

(07-30-2018 02:57 PM)WKUYG Wrote:  

(07-29-2018 07:22 PM)Claw Wrote:  Automated vehicles are unstoppable.

The kids today will use them just so they can go home legally after a night on the town.

Delivery of goods will be much different than all of you are thinking. You are all thinking in terms of what we do now. It won't work that way. Automated delivery will see suppliers sending goods to hubs. Long haulers moving between hubs. The last mile will vary between service providers and companies that do their own pickup. This will all be radically different with any part of the three legs being shuffled between road, air, and drone.

It's coming. You cant stop it. Invest.

That last mile makes up most of the drivers and no way will the local convenience store be picking up their own stock. Too many different brands delivered to each of those stores. So now the convenience store is going to hire someone to go pick up chips, go pick up drinks, go pick up milk, to go pick up beer.....then shelve it?

Looks like Stink is correct....just replacing one job for another. Driver less trucks (in large numbers) might happen but not in my lifetime and I'm 58. Even if it happens a very large % of any lost of jobs will be made up with fleets of tech service jobs and new support staff for all of these trucks. That's not including mechanics that we have today.

There is no way there will be enough technicians capable of handling what some people envision. The technicians themselves will be so expensive, it will be cheaper to have human drivers. The whole thing is a pipe dream.

(07-30-2018 03:02 PM)EverRespect Wrote:  There is no way there will be enough technicians capable of handling what some people envision. The technicians themselves will be so expensive, it will be cheaper to have human drivers. The whole thing is a pipe dream.

Uh ... you been to a Valvoline quick change lately? They take your car in right off the street hot and change the oil and do an inspection and send you packin' in 15 minutes. How fast do you think they'll turn it around when it's all the same model truck and they're coming to a central location with well paid, well equipped, and well staffed facilities?

(07-30-2018 03:02 PM)EverRespect Wrote:  There is no way there will be enough technicians capable of handling what some people envision. The technicians themselves will be so expensive, it will be cheaper to have human drivers.

FedEx does it.
UPS does it.
USPS does it.
Taxi companies did it.

Mechanical standardization is the key.

(07-30-2018 03:10 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(07-30-2018 03:02 PM)EverRespect Wrote:  There is no way there will be enough technicians capable of handling what some people envision. The technicians themselves will be so expensive, it will be cheaper to have human drivers. The whole thing is a pipe dream.

Uh ... you been to a Valvoline quick change lately? They take your car in right off the street hot and change the oil and do an inspection and send you packin' in 15 minutes. How fast do you think they'll turn it around when it's all the same model truck and they're coming to a central location with well paid, well equipped, and well staffed facilities?

I don't need a systems engineer, systems integrator, programmer, or a database architect to change my oil.

(07-30-2018 03:15 PM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  

(07-30-2018 03:02 PM)EverRespect Wrote:  There is no way there will be enough technicians capable of handling what some people envision. The technicians themselves will be so expensive, it will be cheaper to have human drivers.

FedEx does it.
UPS does it.
USPS does it.
Taxi companies did it.

Mechanical standardization is the key.

False. I believe Uber tried it a couple of times and it resulted in crashes.

(07-30-2018 03:15 PM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  

(07-30-2018 03:02 PM)EverRespect Wrote:  There is no way there will be enough technicians capable of handling what some people envision. The technicians themselves will be so expensive, it will be cheaper to have human drivers.

FedEx does it.
UPS does it.
USPS does it.
Taxi companies did it.

Mechanical standardization is the key.

Driving something that can kill is a lot different than tracking packages. BTW how many mistakes are made each and every day with lost packages?

I think the standard will be a lot higher when you are talking human life vs losing something you bought on line.

(07-30-2018 03:24 PM)EverRespect Wrote:  False. I believe Uber tried it a couple of times and it resulted in crashes.

Just no.






If you got some links by all means send 'em. The most prominent Uber A.V. crash involved a pedestrian illegally crossing a highway and the human safety driver watching a TV show on her smartphone right up until impact.

(07-30-2018 03:24 PM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(07-30-2018 03:15 PM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  

(07-30-2018 03:02 PM)EverRespect Wrote:  There is no way there will be enough technicians capable of handling what some people envision. The technicians themselves will be so expensive, it will be cheaper to have human drivers.

FedEx does it.
UPS does it.
USPS does it.
Taxi companies did it.

Mechanical standardization is the key.

False. I believe Uber tried it a couple of times and it resulted in crashes.

I'm addressing your concern at the number of different vehicles and specialties needed to work on many makes and models.

When autonomous trucking happens, there will be few models and few specialized technicians.

(07-30-2018 03:28 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(07-30-2018 03:24 PM)EverRespect Wrote:  False. I believe Uber tried it a couple of times and it resulted in crashes.

Just no.






If you got some links by all means send 'em. The most prominent Uber A.V. crash involved a pedestrian illegally crossing a highway and the human safety driver watching a TV show on her smartphone right up until impact.

Exactly

(07-30-2018 03:28 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(07-30-2018 03:24 PM)EverRespect Wrote:  False. I believe Uber tried it a couple of times and it resulted in crashes.

Just no.






If you got some links by all means send 'em. The most prominent Uber A.V. crash involved a pedestrian illegally crossing a highway and the human safety driver watching a TV show on her smartphone right up until impact.

so you don't see that happening more during expansion....gotcha....

mechanical failure and maintenance alone is going to be the reason....

toss in folks like me (which is a shiteload) that are hands-on and the quality of roads, and all I see is complicating the high volume schematic....

like I said, I easily see hub to hub as a viable option....I only see the rest as a cluster**** waiting to happen....