(04-18-2018 07:51 PM)shere khan Wrote:  

(04-18-2018 11:26 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(04-18-2018 11:21 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(04-18-2018 10:53 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(04-18-2018 09:58 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  ??? where are you coming up with this?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arizona%27...l_district

While Arizona as a whole has a much higher non-Anglo percentage, the 8th district is overwhelmingly Anglo. It also doesn't take in the more well to do ''country club/educated" suburbs of Phoenix either, like Scottsdale. It also doesn't cover the area around Arizona State, nor is it home to a large LGBT population (those largely live elsewhere in the metro). By the way, the total Arizona percentage of Anglos is around 57%. So this district is a lot more Anglo than the state as a whole.

If Trump won this district by 21, even with the normal bump for Democratic turnout increases, the GOP candidate should win it by 8-10 points, even in a 'bad' year. Since Tipirneni''s polls and the GOP response to them, I'll say 5%, which if applied across Arizona would be an utter disaster for the GOP.

Connor Lamb and Doug Jones won by leveraging minority, young, LGBT, and more educated/wealthier voters within their districts. This district really doesn't have a lot of voters that fit that bill.

The only area where I can see that a Democrat might find more voters is with transplants from other states. But if one looks at the largest towns in the district, it appears that there's not been much, if any, population growth in this part of the state. If the Democrat wins, it will have to come down to turnout differential only. That's hard to do when you're starting at -21 percent, unless there's something dramatic going on.

I don't see how a Democrat, running against a largely non-scandal plagued Republican, can win this one. For me, I'm really looking to see about voter turnout in certain segments compared to 2014 and 2016. That should provide some additional evidence about two things that are very important this year. 1) The Senate race 2) The Governor's Race and a third item for 2020....will Arizona flip in 2020.

Anglo is a prefix indicating a relation to the Angles, England, the English people, or the English language, such as in the term Anglo-Saxon language. It is often used alone, somewhat loosely, to refer to people of British Isles descent in the Americas, New Zealand, South Africa and Australia. It is also used, both in English-speaking and non-English-speaking countries, to refer to Anglophone people of other European origins.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo

The entire state of Arizona is 10.3% English. You are counting all non-hispanic whites as Anglos.

That's the term I use. I will continue to use that term. Some Hispanics are white. The term Anglo is a lot easier than "non-Hispanic Caucasian". Everyone understands what the term "Anglo" means in a political context. It is not a pejorative either. Look at the last line of the definition you posted.

so light skinned hispanics are racist towards dark skinned hispanics....got it.

Actually, skin color discrimination in Latin America has been a problem. But that's not really a question for the Arizona special election next Tuesday.

Anglo is a word to describe 'non-Hispanic Caucasians.

Now, back to the race in Arizona. Calling in the Paul Ryan to try to get Lasko some more money from DC. Every dollar spent in this +13 district will be a dollar not spent elsewhere. Meanwhile the Dems are just raising money largely from within the district (and building up a cadre of new donors and Democratic voters in the process).

The GOP has already cannibalized their funding sources for 11 million bucks from national sources in Connor Lamb and Roy Moore/Luther Strange. They're probably going to spend another 3 million on this race.