Part of the fun of following realignment as a topic has been the endless speculation of who will go where and why, and which conference might be pursuing this or that school and why, and getting into the numbers that make moves possible or probable.

That was realignment 2009-12.

Realignment in '92 was some rumor and little talk until moves happened.

The next realignment which might well occur anytime between this Summer and 2023 won't happen that way at all.

There will be virtually no rumors or leaks as to what may be happening. The reason for this is that the next time around the conferences won't be doing the pursuing. The contract holding networks likely already know the preferences of each of the P5 conferences. The next time around it will be the networks who are seeking to nail down rights deals that will likely do the negotiating themselves because there is so much at stake for them that they can't afford the university president who loves publicity dropping not so sublte hints to the press, or the informed donor who thinks he's been told and wants the limelight, and they won't want the lag time for negativity to build if a move is desired, so what I expect is that the networks will line up the schools whose rights they want and will then inform the conference of how much they will be making for taking them. Then when the details have been worked out and new contracts signed the moves will simply be announced and boards like this one can spend hours debating the wisdom of the moves as opposed to hours speculating and debating possible moves.

So, when does this happen? I'm thinking the Summer after the 2019 NCAA Basketball tourney is over if the Carrier involved in the rights acquisitions is ESPN or FOX. Why? Once their deal is solidified then playing hardball for rights makes sense, unless they have already worked it out and then announcing the agreement would also make sense once they have solidified their current transaction.

For ESPN the opportunity would exist to move any independent or Big 12 properties to majority held conferences like the ACC or SEC and to renegotiate existing contracts and extend them beyond their current expiration dates. This would permit ESPN to lock down those rights without having new competitors entering into the process. The same contingency exists for FOX. So whether going head to head or winking and moving with an accord this timeline and method favors them, but waiting until their current deal is finalized makes the most sense whether they go head to head or have worked it out.

How you might ask could this be done? Well it could be done if all of the Big 12 schools were accounted for in a parsing. If they were certain of new P5 homes then dissolving the Big 12 with 8 votes would be very possible and avoiding the punishment of the GOR possible if all 10 are safe and secure. Why accommodate all 10? It's probably cheaper than bidding against new competitors for their rights in 2023, especially if FOX and ESPN who currently split those rights simply agree to split the parsing, or if FOX is moving away from the college market to let ESPN go ahead and secure them now that the success of ESPN profits FOX anyway.

If the process drags out until 2023 then look for possible new bidders to be involved. And again this time I think whole conferences will be locked up. With the PAC and Big 12 coming up in 2024 and the SEC Tier 1 in 2025 and the Big 10 roughly the same time, would FOX and ESPN want to risk losing the bulk of the B1G contract or possibly missing out on picking up the SEC's T1 (currently CBS contract)? I don't think so. Now the PAC content is a whole other matter and the ACC rights won't be up until 2036.

The PAC owns its own network. So if it decides to sell out to a carrier that also could come at anytime and they likely would be getting new competitors involved since those leasing their property now haven't been exactly helpful in carriage.

So if and when this breaks I think the moves will be well orchestrated ahead of time by those with the most to lose, the carriers, and the conferences, (PAC excepted) will by and large be passive beneficiaries of those moves. So the distributions of those schools involved might well depend on whether ESPN is seeking the rights, FOX is seeking the rights, or a third party is seeking them, and when the moves are made and whether the PACN sells out or not. In other words it will be wide open.

So we will all still have plenty to speculate about, but waiting on a leak, a source close to the source, or listening to a Blue Dude of Minnesota will be wholly irrelevant.

Compounding the confusion, and possibly the timeline, for these next moves will be the outcome of the Federal Court's consideration of stipend caps, the FBI's culmination of Corporate Shoe endorsements and perks offered to players and coaches, and of course the changing dynamics of distribution.

My bet is that ESPN with or without FOX might well want to take advantage of their unique positioning with regard to the Big 12 and if so the 2019 timeline works well considering the launch of the ACCN and what might be likely a push to gain them a broader distribution. Locking down what they already count upon and augmenting the existing contracts prior to outside interference would be a great defensive move. But as with all of this, "We'll see."

(04-15-2018 07:04 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Part of the fun of following realignment as a topic has been the endless speculation of who will go where and why, and which conference might be pursuing this or that school and why, and getting into the numbers that make moves possible or probable.

That was realignment 2009-12.

Realignment in '92 was some rumor and little talk until moves happened.

The next realignment which might well occur anytime between this Summer and 2023 won't happen that way at all.

There will be virtually no rumors or leaks as to what may be happening. The reason for this is that the next time around the conferences won't be doing the pursuing. The contract holding networks likely already know the preferences of each of the P5 conferences. The next time around it will be the networks who are seeking to nail down rights deals that will likely do the negotiating themselves because there is so much at stake for them that they can't afford the university president who loves publicity dropping not so sublte hints to the press, or the informed donor who thinks he's been told and wants the limelight, and they won't want the lag time for negativity to build if a move is desired, so what I expect is that the networks will line up the schools whose rights they want and will then inform the conference of how much they will be making for taking them. Then when the details have been worked out and new contracts signed the moves will simply be announced and boards like this one can spend hours debating the wisdom of the moves as opposed to hours speculating and debating possible moves.

So, when does this happen? I'm thinking the Summer after the 2019 NCAA Basketball tourney is over if the Carrier involved in the rights acquisitions is ESPN or FOX. Why? Once their deal is solidified then playing hardball for rights makes sense, unless they have already worked it out and then announcing the agreement would also make sense once they have solidified their current transaction.

For ESPN the opportunity would exist to move any independent or Big 12 properties to majority held conferences like the ACC or SEC and to renegotiate existing contracts and extend them beyond their current expiration dates. This would permit ESPN to lock down those rights without having new competitors entering into the process. The same contingency exists for FOX. So whether going head to head or winking and moving with an accord this timeline and method favors them, but waiting until their current deal is finalized makes the most sense whether they go head to head or have worked it out.

How you might ask could this be done? Well it could be done if all of the Big 12 schools were accounted for in a parsing. If they were certain of new P5 homes then dissolving the Big 12 with 8 votes would be very possible and avoiding the punishment of the GOR possible if all 10 are safe and secure. Why accommodate all 10? It's probably cheaper than bidding against new competitors for their rights in 2023, especially if FOX and ESPN who currently split those rights simply agree to split the parsing, or if FOX is moving away from the college market to let ESPN go ahead and secure them now that the success of ESPN profits FOX anyway.

If the process drags out until 2023 then look for possible new bidders to be involved. And again this time I think whole conferences will be locked up. With the PAC and Big 12 coming up in 2024 and the SEC Tier 1 in 2025 and the Big 10 roughly the same time, would FOX and ESPN want to risk losing the bulk of the B1G contract or possibly missing out on picking up the SEC's T1 (currently CBS contract)? I don't think so. Now the PAC content is a whole other matter and the ACC rights won't be up until 2036.

The PAC owns its own network. So if it decides to sell out to a carrier that also could come at anytime and they likely would be getting new competitors involved since those leasing their property now haven't been exactly helpful in carriage.

So if and when this breaks I think the moves will be well orchestrated ahead of time by those with the most to lose, the carriers, and the conferences, (PAC excepted) will by and large be passive beneficiaries of those moves. So the distributions of those schools involved might well depend on whether ESPN is seeking the rights, FOX is seeking the rights, or a third party is seeking them, and when the moves are made and whether the PACN sells out or not. In other words it will be wide open.

So we will all still have plenty to speculate about, but waiting on a leak, a source close to the source, or listening to a Blue Dude of Minnesota will be wholly irrelevant.

Compounding the confusion, and possibly the timeline, for these next moves will be the outcome of the Federal Court's consideration of stipend caps, the FBI's culmination of Corporate Shoe endorsements and perks offered to players and coaches, and of course the changing dynamics of distribution.

My bet is that ESPN with or without FOX might well want to take advantage of their unique positioning with regard to the Big 12 and if so the 2019 timeline works well considering the launch of the ACCN and what might be likely a push to gain them a broader distribution. Locking down what they already count upon and augmenting the existing contracts prior to outside interference would be a great defensive move. But as with all of this, "We'll see."

I agree with a lot of what you are saying however during the off-season I expect a bunch of "so called experts" spewing nonsense for some internet traffic. Some of it may have a slight nugget of truth (either to it but overall will be works of fiction\fantasy. I would be surprised if was all quiet upon the Realignment Front later this summer.

With all of this being said, I wouldn't be shocked if there are rumblings of X school entering the ACC to help with the Network launch. I would be surprised if the Dude of WV doesn't make that claim for his beloved Mountaineers.

(04-15-2018 07:04 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Part of the fun of following realignment as a topic has been the endless speculation of who will go where and why, and which conference might be pursuing this or that school and why, and getting into the numbers that make moves possible or probable.

That was realignment 2009-12.

Realignment in '92 was some rumor and little talk until moves happened.

The next realignment which might well occur anytime between this Summer and 2023 won't happen that way at all.

There will be virtually no rumors or leaks as to what may be happening. The reason for this is that the next time around the conferences won't be doing the pursuing. The contract holding networks likely already know the preferences of each of the P5 conferences. The next time around it will be the networks who are seeking to nail down rights deals that will likely do the negotiating themselves because there is so much at stake for them that they can't afford the university president who loves publicity dropping not so sublte hints to the press, or the informed donor who thinks he's been told and wants the limelight, and they won't want the lag time for negativity to build if a move is desired, so what I expect is that the networks will line up the schools whose rights they want and will then inform the conference of how much they will be making for taking them. Then when the details have been worked out and new contracts signed the moves will simply be announced and boards like this one can spend hours debating the wisdom of the moves as opposed to hours speculating and debating possible moves.

So, when does this happen? I'm thinking the Summer after the 2019 NCAA Basketball tourney is over if the Carrier involved in the rights acquisitions is ESPN or FOX. Why? Once their deal is solidified then playing hardball for rights makes sense, unless they have already worked it out and then announcing the agreement would also make sense once they have solidified their current transaction.

For ESPN the opportunity would exist to move any independent or Big 12 properties to majority held conferences like the ACC or SEC and to renegotiate existing contracts and extend them beyond their current expiration dates. This would permit ESPN to lock down those rights without having new competitors entering into the process. The same contingency exists for FOX. So whether going head to head or winking and moving with an accord this timeline and method favors them, but waiting until their current deal is finalized makes the most sense whether they go head to head or have worked it out.

How you might ask could this be done? Well it could be done if all of the Big 12 schools were accounted for in a parsing. If they were certain of new P5 homes then dissolving the Big 12 with 8 votes would be very possible and avoiding the punishment of the GOR possible if all 10 are safe and secure. Why accommodate all 10? It's probably cheaper than bidding against new competitors for their rights in 2023, especially if FOX and ESPN who currently split those rights simply agree to split the parsing, or if FOX is moving away from the college market to let ESPN go ahead and secure them now that the success of ESPN profits FOX anyway.

If the process drags out until 2023 then look for possible new bidders to be involved. And again this time I think whole conferences will be locked up. With the PAC and Big 12 coming up in 2024 and the SEC Tier 1 in 2025 and the Big 10 roughly the same time, would FOX and ESPN want to risk losing the bulk of the B1G contract or possibly missing out on picking up the SEC's T1 (currently CBS contract)? I don't think so. Now the PAC content is a whole other matter and the ACC rights won't be up until 2036.

The PAC owns its own network. So if it decides to sell out to a carrier that also could come at anytime and they likely would be getting new competitors involved since those leasing their property now haven't been exactly helpful in carriage.

So if and when this breaks I think the moves will be well orchestrated ahead of time by those with the most to lose, the carriers, and the conferences, (PAC excepted) will by and large be passive beneficiaries of those moves. So the distributions of those schools involved might well depend on whether ESPN is seeking the rights, FOX is seeking the rights, or a third party is seeking them, and when the moves are made and whether the PACN sells out or not. In other words it will be wide open.

So we will all still have plenty to speculate about, but waiting on a leak, a source close to the source, or listening to a Blue Dude of Minnesota will be wholly irrelevant.

Compounding the confusion, and possibly the timeline, for these next moves will be the outcome of the Federal Court's consideration of stipend caps, the FBI's culmination of Corporate Shoe endorsements and perks offered to players and coaches, and of course the changing dynamics of distribution.

My bet is that ESPN with or without FOX might well want to take advantage of their unique positioning with regard to the Big 12 and if so the 2019 timeline works well considering the launch of the ACCN and what might be likely a push to gain them a broader distribution. Locking down what they already count upon and augmenting the existing contracts prior to outside interference would be a great defensive move. But as with all of this, "We'll see."

One thing I expect to see:
Because CBS was hemorrhaging money on the NCAA "March Madness" contract they took in TBS as a partner to help stem the flow. That contract has been extended until 2032.
I expect ESPN to wrestle the SEC football contract away form CBS to help tighten their grip on college football. I would expect a doubleheader (SEC/ACC) broadcast on ABC. Besides, CBS can't do the games justice anymore without Verne.

The only sporting event completely sacred and untouchable for CBS is the Masters. Will be interesting to see the SEC game ratings on CBS. As for Verne, he was a legend, but everyone is replaceable. It was great hearing his commentary at the Masters last week. John Madden and Keith Jackson were legendary, but here we are... still surviving today

(04-15-2018 07:04 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Part of the fun of following realignment as a topic has been the endless speculation of who will go where and why, and which conference might be pursuing this or that school and why, and getting into the numbers that make moves possible or probable.

That was realignment 2009-12.

Realignment in '92 was some rumor and little talk until moves happened.

The next realignment which might well occur anytime between this Summer and 2023 won't happen that way at all.

There will be virtually no rumors or leaks as to what may be happening. The reason for this is that the next time around the conferences won't be doing the pursuing. The contract holding networks likely already know the preferences of each of the P5 conferences. The next time around it will be the networks who are seeking to nail down rights deals that will likely do the negotiating themselves because there is so much at stake for them that they can't afford the university president who loves publicity dropping not so sublte hints to the press, or the informed donor who thinks he's been told and wants the limelight, and they won't want the lag time for negativity to build if a move is desired, so what I expect is that the networks will line up the schools whose rights they want and will then inform the conference of how much they will be making for taking them. Then when the details have been worked out and new contracts signed the moves will simply be announced and boards like this one can spend hours debating the wisdom of the moves as opposed to hours speculating and debating possible moves.

So, when does this happen? I'm thinking the Summer after the 2019 NCAA Basketball tourney is over if the Carrier involved in the rights acquisitions is ESPN or FOX. Why? Once their deal is solidified then playing hardball for rights makes sense, unless they have already worked it out and then announcing the agreement would also make sense once they have solidified their current transaction.

For ESPN the opportunity would exist to move any independent or Big 12 properties to majority held conferences like the ACC or SEC and to renegotiate existing contracts and extend them beyond their current expiration dates. This would permit ESPN to lock down those rights without having new competitors entering into the process. The same contingency exists for FOX. So whether going head to head or winking and moving with an accord this timeline and method favors them, but waiting until their current deal is finalized makes the most sense whether they go head to head or have worked it out.

How you might ask could this be done? Well it could be done if all of the Big 12 schools were accounted for in a parsing. If they were certain of new P5 homes then dissolving the Big 12 with 8 votes would be very possible and avoiding the punishment of the GOR possible if all 10 are safe and secure. Why accommodate all 10? It's probably cheaper than bidding against new competitors for their rights in 2023, especially if FOX and ESPN who currently split those rights simply agree to split the parsing, or if FOX is moving away from the college market to let ESPN go ahead and secure them now that the success of ESPN profits FOX anyway.

If the process drags out until 2023 then look for possible new bidders to be involved. And again this time I think whole conferences will be locked up. With the PAC and Big 12 coming up in 2024 and the SEC Tier 1 in 2025 and the Big 10 roughly the same time, would FOX and ESPN want to risk losing the bulk of the B1G contract or possibly missing out on picking up the SEC's T1 (currently CBS contract)? I don't think so. Now the PAC content is a whole other matter and the ACC rights won't be up until 2036.

The PAC owns its own network. So if it decides to sell out to a carrier that also could come at anytime and they likely would be getting new competitors involved since those leasing their property now haven't been exactly helpful in carriage.

So if and when this breaks I think the moves will be well orchestrated ahead of time by those with the most to lose, the carriers, and the conferences, (PAC excepted) will by and large be passive beneficiaries of those moves. So the distributions of those schools involved might well depend on whether ESPN is seeking the rights, FOX is seeking the rights, or a third party is seeking them, and when the moves are made and whether the PACN sells out or not. In other words it will be wide open.

So we will all still have plenty to speculate about, but waiting on a leak, a source close to the source, or listening to a Blue Dude of Minnesota will be wholly irrelevant.

Compounding the confusion, and possibly the timeline, for these next moves will be the outcome of the Federal Court's consideration of stipend caps, the FBI's culmination of Corporate Shoe endorsements and perks offered to players and coaches, and of course the changing dynamics of distribution.

My bet is that ESPN with or without FOX might well want to take advantage of their unique positioning with regard to the Big 12 and if so the 2019 timeline works well considering the launch of the ACCN and what might be likely a push to gain them a broader distribution. Locking down what they already count upon and augmenting the existing contracts prior to outside interference would be a great defensive move. But as with all of this, "We'll see."

Another point in favor of your argument is this: it's possible, even likely, that Fox/ESPN may move preemptively to secure TV rights before new competitors (Google/Amazon/Facebook) can get involved. In this scenario, it is in the interests of Fox/ESPN to work cooperatively to secure the properties they want with the least amount of exposure.

(04-16-2018 01:05 PM)RocketCitySooner Wrote:  

(04-15-2018 07:04 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Part of the fun of following realignment as a topic has been the endless speculation of who will go where and why, and which conference might be pursuing this or that school and why, and getting into the numbers that make moves possible or probable.

That was realignment 2009-12.

Realignment in '92 was some rumor and little talk until moves happened.

The next realignment which might well occur anytime between this Summer and 2023 won't happen that way at all.

There will be virtually no rumors or leaks as to what may be happening. The reason for this is that the next time around the conferences won't be doing the pursuing. The contract holding networks likely already know the preferences of each of the P5 conferences. The next time around it will be the networks who are seeking to nail down rights deals that will likely do the negotiating themselves because there is so much at stake for them that they can't afford the university president who loves publicity dropping not so sublte hints to the press, or the informed donor who thinks he's been told and wants the limelight, and they won't want the lag time for negativity to build if a move is desired, so what I expect is that the networks will line up the schools whose rights they want and will then inform the conference of how much they will be making for taking them. Then when the details have been worked out and new contracts signed the moves will simply be announced and boards like this one can spend hours debating the wisdom of the moves as opposed to hours speculating and debating possible moves.

So, when does this happen? I'm thinking the Summer after the 2019 NCAA Basketball tourney is over if the Carrier involved in the rights acquisitions is ESPN or FOX. Why? Once their deal is solidified then playing hardball for rights makes sense, unless they have already worked it out and then announcing the agreement would also make sense once they have solidified their current transaction.

For ESPN the opportunity would exist to move any independent or Big 12 properties to majority held conferences like the ACC or SEC and to renegotiate existing contracts and extend them beyond their current expiration dates. This would permit ESPN to lock down those rights without having new competitors entering into the process. The same contingency exists for FOX. So whether going head to head or winking and moving with an accord this timeline and method favors them, but waiting until their current deal is finalized makes the most sense whether they go head to head or have worked it out.

How you might ask could this be done? Well it could be done if all of the Big 12 schools were accounted for in a parsing. If they were certain of new P5 homes then dissolving the Big 12 with 8 votes would be very possible and avoiding the punishment of the GOR possible if all 10 are safe and secure. Why accommodate all 10? It's probably cheaper than bidding against new competitors for their rights in 2023, especially if FOX and ESPN who currently split those rights simply agree to split the parsing, or if FOX is moving away from the college market to let ESPN go ahead and secure them now that the success of ESPN profits FOX anyway.

If the process drags out until 2023 then look for possible new bidders to be involved. And again this time I think whole conferences will be locked up. With the PAC and Big 12 coming up in 2024 and the SEC Tier 1 in 2025 and the Big 10 roughly the same time, would FOX and ESPN want to risk losing the bulk of the B1G contract or possibly missing out on picking up the SEC's T1 (currently CBS contract)? I don't think so. Now the PAC content is a whole other matter and the ACC rights won't be up until 2036.

The PAC owns its own network. So if it decides to sell out to a carrier that also could come at anytime and they likely would be getting new competitors involved since those leasing their property now haven't been exactly helpful in carriage.

So if and when this breaks I think the moves will be well orchestrated ahead of time by those with the most to lose, the carriers, and the conferences, (PAC excepted) will by and large be passive beneficiaries of those moves. So the distributions of those schools involved might well depend on whether ESPN is seeking the rights, FOX is seeking the rights, or a third party is seeking them, and when the moves are made and whether the PACN sells out or not. In other words it will be wide open.

So we will all still have plenty to speculate about, but waiting on a leak, a source close to the source, or listening to a Blue Dude of Minnesota will be wholly irrelevant.

Compounding the confusion, and possibly the timeline, for these next moves will be the outcome of the Federal Court's consideration of stipend caps, the FBI's culmination of Corporate Shoe endorsements and perks offered to players and coaches, and of course the changing dynamics of distribution.

My bet is that ESPN with or without FOX might well want to take advantage of their unique positioning with regard to the Big 12 and if so the 2019 timeline works well considering the launch of the ACCN and what might be likely a push to gain them a broader distribution. Locking down what they already count upon and augmenting the existing contracts prior to outside interference would be a great defensive move. But as with all of this, "We'll see."

Another point in favor of your argument is this: it's possible, even likely, that Fox/ESPN may move preemptively to secure TV rights before new competitors (Google/Amazon/Facebook) can get involved. In this scenario, it is in the interests of Fox/ESPN to work cooperatively to secure the properties they want with the least amount of exposure.

Exactly. I think Amazon and Facebook are aware because a article I read last night stated that the West Coast tech groups could make a move on professional sports as early as next year. I think this time around that everyone will be jumping the starting gun, but ESPN/FOX certainly would be foolish not to take advantage of their current contracts and to find way to augment and extend them.

Wasn't it Greg Sankey who more or less shut down Finebaum from talking about these things last year?

I can see certain media outlets trying to stir rumors up for the sake of page views as someone else mentioned, but you are right. It does seem that the decision makers have their lips sealed.

I would even theorize that Boren was playing a game designed to put pressure on Texas when he went public with all his statements the last couple of years. He was a politician after all and I doubt he was conducting business in the open.

(04-16-2018 03:56 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(04-16-2018 01:05 PM)RocketCitySooner Wrote:  

(04-15-2018 07:04 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Part of the fun of following realignment as a topic has been the endless speculation of who will go where and why, and which conference might be pursuing this or that school and why, and getting into the numbers that make moves possible or probable.

That was realignment 2009-12.

Realignment in '92 was some rumor and little talk until moves happened.

The next realignment which might well occur anytime between this Summer and 2023 won't happen that way at all.

There will be virtually no rumors or leaks as to what may be happening. The reason for this is that the next time around the conferences won't be doing the pursuing. The contract holding networks likely already know the preferences of each of the P5 conferences. The next time around it will be the networks who are seeking to nail down rights deals that will likely do the negotiating themselves because there is so much at stake for them that they can't afford the university president who loves publicity dropping not so sublte hints to the press, or the informed donor who thinks he's been told and wants the limelight, and they won't want the lag time for negativity to build if a move is desired, so what I expect is that the networks will line up the schools whose rights they want and will then inform the conference of how much they will be making for taking them. Then when the details have been worked out and new contracts signed the moves will simply be announced and boards like this one can spend hours debating the wisdom of the moves as opposed to hours speculating and debating possible moves.

So, when does this happen? I'm thinking the Summer after the 2019 NCAA Basketball tourney is over if the Carrier involved in the rights acquisitions is ESPN or FOX. Why? Once their deal is solidified then playing hardball for rights makes sense, unless they have already worked it out and then announcing the agreement would also make sense once they have solidified their current transaction.

For ESPN the opportunity would exist to move any independent or Big 12 properties to majority held conferences like the ACC or SEC and to renegotiate existing contracts and extend them beyond their current expiration dates. This would permit ESPN to lock down those rights without having new competitors entering into the process. The same contingency exists for FOX. So whether going head to head or winking and moving with an accord this timeline and method favors them, but waiting until their current deal is finalized makes the most sense whether they go head to head or have worked it out.

How you might ask could this be done? Well it could be done if all of the Big 12 schools were accounted for in a parsing. If they were certain of new P5 homes then dissolving the Big 12 with 8 votes would be very possible and avoiding the punishment of the GOR possible if all 10 are safe and secure. Why accommodate all 10? It's probably cheaper than bidding against new competitors for their rights in 2023, especially if FOX and ESPN who currently split those rights simply agree to split the parsing, or if FOX is moving away from the college market to let ESPN go ahead and secure them now that the success of ESPN profits FOX anyway.

If the process drags out until 2023 then look for possible new bidders to be involved. And again this time I think whole conferences will be locked up. With the PAC and Big 12 coming up in 2024 and the SEC Tier 1 in 2025 and the Big 10 roughly the same time, would FOX and ESPN want to risk losing the bulk of the B1G contract or possibly missing out on picking up the SEC's T1 (currently CBS contract)? I don't think so. Now the PAC content is a whole other matter and the ACC rights won't be up until 2036.

The PAC owns its own network. So if it decides to sell out to a carrier that also could come at anytime and they likely would be getting new competitors involved since those leasing their property now haven't been exactly helpful in carriage.

So if and when this breaks I think the moves will be well orchestrated ahead of time by those with the most to lose, the carriers, and the conferences, (PAC excepted) will by and large be passive beneficiaries of those moves. So the distributions of those schools involved might well depend on whether ESPN is seeking the rights, FOX is seeking the rights, or a third party is seeking them, and when the moves are made and whether the PACN sells out or not. In other words it will be wide open.

So we will all still have plenty to speculate about, but waiting on a leak, a source close to the source, or listening to a Blue Dude of Minnesota will be wholly irrelevant.

Compounding the confusion, and possibly the timeline, for these next moves will be the outcome of the Federal Court's consideration of stipend caps, the FBI's culmination of Corporate Shoe endorsements and perks offered to players and coaches, and of course the changing dynamics of distribution.

My bet is that ESPN with or without FOX might well want to take advantage of their unique positioning with regard to the Big 12 and if so the 2019 timeline works well considering the launch of the ACCN and what might be likely a push to gain them a broader distribution. Locking down what they already count upon and augmenting the existing contracts prior to outside interference would be a great defensive move. But as with all of this, "We'll see."

Another point in favor of your argument is this: it's possible, even likely, that Fox/ESPN may move preemptively to secure TV rights before new competitors (Google/Amazon/Facebook) can get involved. In this scenario, it is in the interests of Fox/ESPN to work cooperatively to secure the properties they want with the least amount of exposure.

Exactly. I think Amazon and Facebook are aware because a article I read last night stated that the West Coast tech groups could make a move on professional sports as early as next year. I think this time around that everyone will be jumping the starting gun, but ESPN/FOX certainly would be foolish not to take advantage of their current contracts and to find way to augment and extend them.

Fox/Hulu, ESPN/ESPN+, CBS/CBS Streaming App, etc., all these broadcasters have some form of payed streaming services independent of their cable/TV providers. Traditional viewing options might still be the preferred methods for those that want high quality and reliable signals or those who refuse to venture into the streaming technology—like my older parents.

There will be more bidders, but I still see the traditional providers offering the greatest way to distribute the product.

Can someone dumb this down a little so us little people can understand it?

(04-16-2018 04:46 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  Wasn't it Greg Sankey who more or less shut down Finebaum from talking about these things last year?

I can see certain media outlets trying to stir rumors up for the sake of page views as someone else mentioned, but you are right. It does seem that the decision makers have their lips sealed.

I would even theorize that Boren was playing a game designed to put pressure on Texas when he went public with all his statements the last couple of years. He was a politician after all and I doubt he was conducting business in the open.

Bump

Also, what is the new landthieves website?

(04-17-2018 06:53 AM)murrdcu Wrote:  Also, what is the new landthieves website?

https://www.dirtburglars.com/board

(04-16-2018 01:05 PM)RocketCitySooner Wrote:  

(04-15-2018 07:04 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Part of the fun of following realignment as a topic has been the endless speculation of who will go where and why, and which conference might be pursuing this or that school and why, and getting into the numbers that make moves possible or probable.

That was realignment 2009-12.

Realignment in '92 was some rumor and little talk until moves happened.

The next realignment which might well occur anytime between this Summer and 2023 won't happen that way at all.

There will be virtually no rumors or leaks as to what may be happening. The reason for this is that the next time around the conferences won't be doing the pursuing. The contract holding networks likely already know the preferences of each of the P5 conferences. The next time around it will be the networks who are seeking to nail down rights deals that will likely do the negotiating themselves because there is so much at stake for them that they can't afford the university president who loves publicity dropping not so sublte hints to the press, or the informed donor who thinks he's been told and wants the limelight, and they won't want the lag time for negativity to build if a move is desired, so what I expect is that the networks will line up the schools whose rights they want and will then inform the conference of how much they will be making for taking them. Then when the details have been worked out and new contracts signed the moves will simply be announced and boards like this one can spend hours debating the wisdom of the moves as opposed to hours speculating and debating possible moves.

So, when does this happen? I'm thinking the Summer after the 2019 NCAA Basketball tourney is over if the Carrier involved in the rights acquisitions is ESPN or FOX. Why? Once their deal is solidified then playing hardball for rights makes sense, unless they have already worked it out and then announcing the agreement would also make sense once they have solidified their current transaction.

For ESPN the opportunity would exist to move any independent or Big 12 properties to majority held conferences like the ACC or SEC and to renegotiate existing contracts and extend them beyond their current expiration dates. This would permit ESPN to lock down those rights without having new competitors entering into the process. The same contingency exists for FOX. So whether going head to head or winking and moving with an accord this timeline and method favors them, but waiting until their current deal is finalized makes the most sense whether they go head to head or have worked it out.

How you might ask could this be done? Well it could be done if all of the Big 12 schools were accounted for in a parsing. If they were certain of new P5 homes then dissolving the Big 12 with 8 votes would be very possible and avoiding the punishment of the GOR possible if all 10 are safe and secure. Why accommodate all 10? It's probably cheaper than bidding against new competitors for their rights in 2023, especially if FOX and ESPN who currently split those rights simply agree to split the parsing, or if FOX is moving away from the college market to let ESPN go ahead and secure them now that the success of ESPN profits FOX anyway.

If the process drags out until 2023 then look for possible new bidders to be involved. And again this time I think whole conferences will be locked up. With the PAC and Big 12 coming up in 2024 and the SEC Tier 1 in 2025 and the Big 10 roughly the same time, would FOX and ESPN want to risk losing the bulk of the B1G contract or possibly missing out on picking up the SEC's T1 (currently CBS contract)? I don't think so. Now the PAC content is a whole other matter and the ACC rights won't be up until 2036.

The PAC owns its own network. So if it decides to sell out to a carrier that also could come at anytime and they likely would be getting new competitors involved since those leasing their property now haven't been exactly helpful in carriage.

So if and when this breaks I think the moves will be well orchestrated ahead of time by those with the most to lose, the carriers, and the conferences, (PAC excepted) will by and large be passive beneficiaries of those moves. So the distributions of those schools involved might well depend on whether ESPN is seeking the rights, FOX is seeking the rights, or a third party is seeking them, and when the moves are made and whether the PACN sells out or not. In other words it will be wide open.

So we will all still have plenty to speculate about, but waiting on a leak, a source close to the source, or listening to a Blue Dude of Minnesota will be wholly irrelevant.

Compounding the confusion, and possibly the timeline, for these next moves will be the outcome of the Federal Court's consideration of stipend caps, the FBI's culmination of Corporate Shoe endorsements and perks offered to players and coaches, and of course the changing dynamics of distribution.

My bet is that ESPN with or without FOX might well want to take advantage of their unique positioning with regard to the Big 12 and if so the 2019 timeline works well considering the launch of the ACCN and what might be likely a push to gain them a broader distribution. Locking down what they already count upon and augmenting the existing contracts prior to outside interference would be a great defensive move. But as with all of this, "We'll see."

Another point in favor of your argument is this: it's possible, even likely, that Fox/ESPN may move preemptively to secure TV rights before new competitors (Google/Amazon/Facebook) can get involved. In this scenario, it is in the interests of Fox/ESPN to work cooperatively to secure the properties they want with the least amount of exposure.

With GOR's through 2024-2025 it becomes harder to do this before the new competitors get involved if you don't find homes for at least 8 of the 10 schools, some argue the legal battles could prevent it unless they find homes for all 10. So it would seem securing properties of a limited amount of schools will be hard for ESPN/FOX to do soon enough to ward off competition from the tech companies.

(04-17-2018 03:03 PM)Win5002 Wrote:  

(04-16-2018 01:05 PM)RocketCitySooner Wrote:  

(04-15-2018 07:04 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Part of the fun of following realignment as a topic has been the endless speculation of who will go where and why, and which conference might be pursuing this or that school and why, and getting into the numbers that make moves possible or probable.

That was realignment 2009-12.

Realignment in '92 was some rumor and little talk until moves happened.

The next realignment which might well occur anytime between this Summer and 2023 won't happen that way at all.

There will be virtually no rumors or leaks as to what may be happening. The reason for this is that the next time around the conferences won't be doing the pursuing. The contract holding networks likely already know the preferences of each of the P5 conferences. The next time around it will be the networks who are seeking to nail down rights deals that will likely do the negotiating themselves because there is so much at stake for them that they can't afford the university president who loves publicity dropping not so sublte hints to the press, or the informed donor who thinks he's been told and wants the limelight, and they won't want the lag time for negativity to build if a move is desired, so what I expect is that the networks will line up the schools whose rights they want and will then inform the conference of how much they will be making for taking them. Then when the details have been worked out and new contracts signed the moves will simply be announced and boards like this one can spend hours debating the wisdom of the moves as opposed to hours speculating and debating possible moves.

So, when does this happen? I'm thinking the Summer after the 2019 NCAA Basketball tourney is over if the Carrier involved in the rights acquisitions is ESPN or FOX. Why? Once their deal is solidified then playing hardball for rights makes sense, unless they have already worked it out and then announcing the agreement would also make sense once they have solidified their current transaction.

For ESPN the opportunity would exist to move any independent or Big 12 properties to majority held conferences like the ACC or SEC and to renegotiate existing contracts and extend them beyond their current expiration dates. This would permit ESPN to lock down those rights without having new competitors entering into the process. The same contingency exists for FOX. So whether going head to head or winking and moving with an accord this timeline and method favors them, but waiting until their current deal is finalized makes the most sense whether they go head to head or have worked it out.

How you might ask could this be done? Well it could be done if all of the Big 12 schools were accounted for in a parsing. If they were certain of new P5 homes then dissolving the Big 12 with 8 votes would be very possible and avoiding the punishment of the GOR possible if all 10 are safe and secure. Why accommodate all 10? It's probably cheaper than bidding against new competitors for their rights in 2023, especially if FOX and ESPN who currently split those rights simply agree to split the parsing, or if FOX is moving away from the college market to let ESPN go ahead and secure them now that the success of ESPN profits FOX anyway.

If the process drags out until 2023 then look for possible new bidders to be involved. And again this time I think whole conferences will be locked up. With the PAC and Big 12 coming up in 2024 and the SEC Tier 1 in 2025 and the Big 10 roughly the same time, would FOX and ESPN want to risk losing the bulk of the B1G contract or possibly missing out on picking up the SEC's T1 (currently CBS contract)? I don't think so. Now the PAC content is a whole other matter and the ACC rights won't be up until 2036.

The PAC owns its own network. So if it decides to sell out to a carrier that also could come at anytime and they likely would be getting new competitors involved since those leasing their property now haven't been exactly helpful in carriage.

So if and when this breaks I think the moves will be well orchestrated ahead of time by those with the most to lose, the carriers, and the conferences, (PAC excepted) will by and large be passive beneficiaries of those moves. So the distributions of those schools involved might well depend on whether ESPN is seeking the rights, FOX is seeking the rights, or a third party is seeking them, and when the moves are made and whether the PACN sells out or not. In other words it will be wide open.

So we will all still have plenty to speculate about, but waiting on a leak, a source close to the source, or listening to a Blue Dude of Minnesota will be wholly irrelevant.

Compounding the confusion, and possibly the timeline, for these next moves will be the outcome of the Federal Court's consideration of stipend caps, the FBI's culmination of Corporate Shoe endorsements and perks offered to players and coaches, and of course the changing dynamics of distribution.

My bet is that ESPN with or without FOX might well want to take advantage of their unique positioning with regard to the Big 12 and if so the 2019 timeline works well considering the launch of the ACCN and what might be likely a push to gain them a broader distribution. Locking down what they already count upon and augmenting the existing contracts prior to outside interference would be a great defensive move. But as with all of this, "We'll see."

Another point in favor of your argument is this: it's possible, even likely, that Fox/ESPN may move preemptively to secure TV rights before new competitors (Google/Amazon/Facebook) can get involved. In this scenario, it is in the interests of Fox/ESPN to work cooperatively to secure the properties they want with the least amount of exposure.

With GOR's through 2024-2025 it becomes harder to do this before the new competitors get involved if you don't find homes for at least 8 of the 10 schools, some argue the legal battles could prevent it unless they find homes for all 10. So it would seem securing properties of a limited amount of schools will be hard for ESPN/FOX to do soon enough to ward off competition from the tech companies.

It can be done. But it would probably require some shifting of some schools beyond the Big 12 to accomplish it equitably for more than two conferences and with FOX cooperation. If ESPN handles it in house they could do it between the SEC and ACC but it would be a more awkward fit.

Fox has a contract with the Big XII and with certain teams for their T3 rights.
ESPN has a contract with the Big XII also, as well as with Texas and some others.

Honest question: if ESPN is able to purchase the T3 rights of those individual Big XII teams which are currently with Fox, would there be any reason at that point to involve Fox at all? After all, if the Big XII were to dissolve, exactly what media rights would Fox still own?

(04-17-2018 03:24 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Fox has a contract with the Big XII and with certain teams for their T3 rights.
ESPN has a contract with the Big XII also, as well as with Texas and some others.

Honest question: if ESPN is able to purchase the T3 rights of those individual Big XII teams which are currently with Fox, would there be any reason at that point to involve Fox at all? After all, if the Big XII were to dissolve, exactly what media rights would Fox still own?

ESPN only has the T3 for Texas and Kansas.

(04-17-2018 03:24 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Fox has a contract with the Big XII and with certain teams for their T3 rights.
ESPN has a contract with the Big XII also, as well as with Texas and some others.

Honest question: if ESPN is able to purchase the T3 rights of those individual Big XII teams which are currently with Fox, would there be any reason at that point to involve Fox at all? After all, if the Big XII were to dissolve, exactly what media rights would Fox still own?

FOX holds 50% of the T1 & T2 rights through the duration of the present contract. ESPN could buy those out (on paper) and sublet them back to FOX for the same price should FOX not want to pursue a future relationship with the Big 12 schools. Or, FOX might do that for some sublet rights to ACC and SEC games (something they've not really had is any presence in the Southeast), or FOX might be amenable to placing some of those schools in the Big 10 or PAC if FOX wants to pursue more of an rights ownership in either of those.

But suffice it to say the options for getting this done are many.

BTW most of the T3 rights in the Big 12 (other than UT's, OU's, KU's, and WVU's) are less than 3 million a year. Buying them out with 5 years to go would be nothing. OU's is for about 7 million but they have to front the overhead so they NET about 3 to 4 million. WVU's rights are tied into radio and some other stuff but wouldn't be that much to buy out but more than 3 million a year.

To be clear, I wasn't asking about ESPN buying out Fox - I was wondering if the Big XII is disbanded by vote, what happens to TV contracts which are with the conference? Wouldn't those T1/T2 contracts simply go away?

(04-17-2018 05:47 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  To be clear, I wasn't asking about ESPN buying out Fox - I was wondering if the Big XII is disbanded by vote, what happens to TV contracts which are with the conference? Wouldn't those T1/T2 contracts simply go away?

No, the contracts would remain in effect.

(04-17-2018 05:47 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  To be clear, I wasn't asking about ESPN buying out Fox - I was wondering if the Big XII is disbanded by vote, what happens to TV contracts which are with the conference? Wouldn't those T1/T2 contracts simply go away?

To be clear they would have to buy out the FOX half to control the product in a move. The conference can be disbanded with 8 votes. That would void a GOR. But the contracted period with the networks has to be honored. Since ESPN and FOX split the rights and the T3 rights are owned by various parties if ESPN absorbed all of the Big 10 they would have to buy out the FOX portion and any T3 that ESPN does not already hold. If FOX and ESPN split the schools 5 and 5 I suppose the T1 & T2 would not have to be bought out, but the T3 rights not belonging to either FOX or ESPN would have to be accounted for.

It's just much easier Mark if ESPN "buys out FOX" on paper and sublets the rights right back to them for the contracted amount. So what you asked is not possible. What I posted is.